Xbox live paywall is still something i cannot get past, if they had not put things like netflix, Facebook and messaging behind it (keep game servers, voice, even video chat behind it, fare enough) then maybe, just maybe, i would have liked the Xbox.
As it is Xbox Live has been the deciding factor in what i play my "console" games on, and thats the PS3, i even pay for PSN, because im paying for "Added" value, not features that should be free but have been removed and put behind a paywall to force subscription.
Also im guess MS will not allow for cheap DIY harddisk upgrades, and as 500GB isnt enough for me on my PS3 (Currently have a 1TB and its running less than 50gb free, no illegal stuff, but i do use it as a DVR with Play TV)
Given the option, ill go with , and this is a laugh, the more open Sony option.
But i agree, if apple just ramped up the GPU in the Apple TV a bit, and brought out a proper physical controller, it would easily eat into both sony and MS user base (and finally see nintendo off to sit at the has been table with sega)