I actually don't think it happens unless all of the players (that aren't us consumers) can make MORE money- not the same as what they make now. They'll all see this switch as a risk and where there's risk, the potential return must be great enough to motivate that leap. So, IMO, to work, some variant of this dream must show:
- the content creators how they are going to make more money than they make now
- the (broadband) infrasture people how they are going to make more than they make now (and that means these cable people have to see that losing their cable TV subscription revenue is fully made up for in broadband rate increases plus some gain to make the change worth it)
- Apple is going to take their cut right off the top
Who's left?
In swapping a Comcast for Apple, I don't expect any big savings- just one profitable corporation injecting themselves into this chain in place of another. The other doesn't have to be ejected as they own the pipes, so they can just replace any lost revenues with increased broadband. So only the 2 parties at the end of the chain remain.
If the content creators take the hit, then the breadth & depth (and quality) of programming probably comes down. We have a peek at low-cost/no-cost videos via youtube, etc. If we consumers expect the breadth & depth (and quality) to stay at least as good/bad as it is now, there's no one else to pay the difference but us consumers.
Pair that reality with our call for "commercial free" and we are knocking $51/month per household out of the equation which also has to be made up for by someone. Not content creators. Not Apple. Not Cable (broadband). Who's left?
Of course. That's the only way some kind of change like this can come. See the math above and just switch around the "who's left?" part. For example, let's take care of ourselves first:
We consumers go from- say- $100 per month to- say $20 per month (some want $5 or $10 per month while killing the $51 month OPM (commercial) subsidy too). Apple still wants a fat profit; else why bother. Comcast, etc as a broadband provider has no reason to roll over and take the loss when they have a complete lock on the pipe. But let's assume they let Apple have the cable TV business. They'll still get theirs in full plus some on higher broadband rates. Who's left?
If "we" win with some kind of huge cut in the fuel for the model, then the content creators are the only ones who can lose. Cut their revenues in a big way and they need to cut their costs in a big way. Shows get canceled. Expensive production & special effects shows get scrapped budgets or canceled. Cheaply produced television like reality programming is probably all we can get. Or reruns of stuff already made (no new shows). And youtube quality productions where the artists do it for just the art (entirely on shoe strings).
Remember Star Trek: TNG. None of them ever seemed to be watching any kind of television in the 23rd century. Instead, for artistic entertainment, they gathered in the theater and the officers acted out scenes from old plays or played music. Apparently, that's the future we're dreaming of here. Kill the revenues of the existing model, kill the production model and we end up with only the stuff already in the can or volunteer, amateur live theater. "Data, try that accent again with more
feeling this time", "But I don't have any feelings Doctor."
