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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:33 AM   #26
Tiger8
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I'm sure Blackberry thought so...

I'm sure Blackberry thought so one day... but look at them now.

No one is safe
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:35 AM   #27
Tech198
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ya.... notice "iPhone" share, since most will be jeil-brocken...


This is hardly a true stat. also i agree, it'll be big...



(... and less than 68% everywhere else) thanks allot Apple.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:35 AM   #28
DonRivella
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Hard science, no doubt. This can easily be seen by the use of a log scale.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:35 AM   #29
leman
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What a ridiculous article... @thundersteele hits the nail on the head with Randall's comic.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:36 AM   #30
Reason077
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Our scientists have analysed these figures in great detail. Conclusion: Apple is doomed.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:36 AM   #31
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Let's check in 2017, we will see if Dediu is right.

Can anyone calculate market share for the other brands?
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:37 AM   #32
Reason077
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Originally Posted by Tiger8 View Post
I'm sure Blackberry thought so one day... but look at them now.
Exactly. This is precisely the sort of chart that Blackberry execs were looking at circa 2007, and congratulating themselves at having achieved total world domination by 2012.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:40 AM   #33
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Completely anecdotal but when every I see people whipping out there phone in a public place 60% of the time it's an iPhone, 30%Android Phablets & the remaining something else. So I can see where the extrapolation might bear some reality.

The iPhone is still the "it" phone for kids in middle/high school & business has adopted iOS in far more instances than Windows Phone or Android so the base seems to have a solid footing. In a few years it's likely that iOS & Android will be the only ones standing & all the feature phone/win phone/BB folks will have to move to iOS or Android.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8 View Post
I'm sure Blackberry thought so one day... but look at them now.

No one is safe
Very true, but for now Apple is making enough incremental changes to remain relevant. BB & Palms downfall was that they didn't freshen up the interface or update feature set until they already bled too much market share.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:42 AM   #34
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My mom bought an iPhone 5c a week ago. I'm still kinda shocked she got a cell phone in the first place a couple years ago. I didn't even think she used the thing very often. Then all of a sudden, she asks if I thought she should get a smartphone.

I told her to get an iPhone since that is what I have. It will make it easier for me to help her use the thing. Especially since most of the time I'll be helping her is over the phone since we don't live all that close to each other.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:42 AM   #35
roasted
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Originally Posted by osofast240sx View Post
Here come the Trolls and naysayers!!!

Once the 4.97" iPhone comes out its Game Over!!!!!!!!
YEAH MAN GAME OVER! No need for any other device! Apple for life. Amirite?


..............
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:53 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Reason077 View Post
Exactly. This is precisely the sort of chart that Blackberry execs were looking at circa 2007, and congratulating themselves at having achieved total world domination by 2012.
Yes and maybe no. The downfall of RIM came about so quickly because the game changer iPhone was released. For Apple to suffer the same fate, something equally as game changing would have to come out, followed by no response to the changing market place by Apple. This could easily happen slowly, chunk by chunk, over time (like some argue is starting to happen) but very unlikely that it would be as dramatic as it was for RIM.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 09:56 AM   #37
ARandomFellow
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Neither of those conditions are likely to continue forever unchanged. More to the point, Apple phones have to be seen as enough better to justify the higher price. Surely the history of technology adoption demonstrates that many people will be satisfied with the "good enough" solution if the marginal benefit of the better solution is seen as not worth the extra cost.
A no contract Galaxy S4 is $639 from AT&T. A no contract iPhone 5s is $649 from Apple directly. The price difference is negligible at best. If you're buying the two year contract... they are exactly the same. So... I guess since you already recognize that Apple is the (at least marginally) better solution, there's no reason to buy anything else!

Of course, that's not really true either. There's a reason there are so many different phones. It isn't strictly a cost decision. Lots of people like Android phones for their differing feature sets, both from each other and from the iPhone. Different strokes for different folks, you know? There will always be room for many devices because there are many types of users and use cases. I'm glad they all exist. It's a good time to enjoy technology.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:00 AM   #38
paul4339
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He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).

The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.

.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:02 AM   #39
paul4339
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He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).

The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.

.

----------

He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).

The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.

----------

sorry major network problems.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:04 AM   #40
Oletros
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paul4339 View Post
He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).

The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.

.
But his work is just guesswork, he has only applied a linear regression because it fits what he likes, nothing more.

Where is the data from 2007 to October 2008? Where is the expected market share for the other operating systems?
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:05 AM   #41
512ke
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Look. We need an analysts making outrageously bullish claims to balance out other analysts' making outrageously bearish ones.

This guys graph seems less kooky to me than does the New York Times' reports that Apple is doing very badly right now, when in fact Apple just had the best November in the history of any large technology company.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:07 AM   #42
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Popularity of high end Samsung smartphones and phablets will plummet once Apple introduces larges displays on future iPhones and phablets. Larger screen is the main reason people buy them.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:12 AM   #43
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Popularity of high end Samsung smartphones and phablets will plummet once Apple introduces larges displays on future iPhones and phablets. Larger screen is the main reason people buy them.
There's also the freedom aspect of android but these will be interesting times.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:17 AM   #44
Syk
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I doubt it will be 68%. More so if US carriers do like AT&T mentioned last week and get rid of phone subsidies.

Smartphones have pretty much reached a maturity like PC's.

There is little reason to spend a high amount when something cheaper and just as good will do. You have Nexus & Moto G and I'm pretty sure soon other companies will produce a quality phone in the $350-400 price line.

All the smartphones can talk,text, surf, instagram,facebook, twitter and whatever else. Having a crazy fast cpu/gpu in the phone will mean very little unless you're gaming and even that will flat line after a while.

I actually see the smartphone market probably leveling off to what will basically be a tie.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:18 AM   #45
osx11
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Originally Posted by Xgm541 View Post
Something about a straight line prediction of smartphone penetration and iphone market share seems unsettling. Sometimes I wish I was an analyst because their job seems easy.
It's using logarithmic logistic functions.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:20 AM   #46
BornAgainApple
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Originally Posted by b11051973 View Post
My mom bought an iPhone 5c a week ago. I'm still kinda shocked she got a cell phone in the first place a couple years ago. I didn't even think she used the thing very often. Then all of a sudden, she asks if I thought she should get a smartphone.

I told her to get an iPhone since that is what I have. It will make it easier for me to help her use the thing. Especially since most of the time I'll be helping her is over the phone since we don't live all that close to each other.
My mom has an iPhone 4S and while she likes it, she's ALWAYS calling me for help. Conversely, my in-laws tried the iPhone 5C for a few days before returning them for HTC One's because everything on the (much) larger display was easier to read.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:21 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Reason077 View Post
Exactly. This is precisely the sort of chart that Blackberry execs were looking at circa 2007, and congratulating themselves at having achieved total world domination by 2012.
yep, good thing Apple execs are not looking at charts, there just making superior products.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:23 AM   #48
TMay
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But his work is just guesswork, he has only applied a linear regression because it fits what he likes, nothing more.

Where is the data from 2007 to October 2008? Where is the expected market share for the other operating systems?
Horace has earned his creds, but if you don't like his analysis, point out where it is incorrect on asymco.com. Still, it's analysis, not guesswork unless you can prove otherwise.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:23 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by kalsta View Post
Is it just me or does that yellow line look like the path of a ball when you throw it into the air—moments before it peaks and then comes plummeting back down to earth?
That yellow line curves because this isn't a linear scale. It curves more than the red one, as it is higher up in the y-axis.
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Old Dec 16, 2013, 10:28 AM   #50
Oletros
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Originally Posted by TMay View Post
Horace has earned his creds, but if you don't like his analysis, point out where it is incorrect on asymco.com. Still, it's analysis, not guesswork unless you can prove otherwise.
You have to look at the graph to know how it is flawed.

A hint, there is more than just an operating system, thing that he has missed because if he does the numbers for the others he will have a market share way greater than 100%. He has not analysed anything, he has just played with numbers and has make a guesswork with the numbers that he has liked more.
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