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Old Jan 14, 2014, 04:29 PM   #26
xofruitcake
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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
I was simply talking about the total number of iPhones Apple sells without China Mobile... and the total number of iPhones about would sell with China Mobile.

Why would adding an additional carrier cause Apple to sell fewer iPhones overall?

Let's say the iPhone is on 250 carriers around the world... why would being on 251 carriers be worse?

I don't see how adding China Mobile will cause that.
it is not that the next carrier make Apple sell less on the current carriers.. It is just a sign of the time that the growth rate for smartphone in general slow down a lot yoy. And Apple top end market has even slower growth than the general smartphone market. Looks at it the other way, why shouldn't adding Docomo make fiscal 1Q14 revenue number a lot better than what Apple guided? Docomo has about 60M mobile users and had no Iphone exposure. Japan as a whole has 40% Iphone penetration with Softbank and Au as the two carriers that carry Iphone. If you work the math, the Iphone penetration for Softbank and Au customer base should be in the 60-70% range. So Docomo ultimately should give Apple about 36-42M Iphone sales spread out to 2 years (assuming they follow the 2 year subsidy cycle). That should add 5 to 6M new Iphone uses a quarter. But Apple guidance only show marginal improvement on revenue. Doesn't it tell you that Apple is losing sales somewhere else (as least compare to last year)? The upgrade cycle is the ultimate problem for all smartphone manufacturers. When the samrtphone was not powerful enough, everyone want the latest generation of phone. Right now 4 and 4s are still good enough for a lot of users. So not as many 4 and 4s owner will upgrade to 5s and sales will slow down. This situation is not too severe for subsidy country. But it is very problematic for "buy your device" country. Sales are not static. In fiscal 2013, there are a couple quarters that Apple revenue and earning drop compare to the same quarter in 2012. So sales drop do happen..
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Old Jan 14, 2014, 04:30 PM   #27
Brandon263
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Originally Posted by cameronjpu View Post
No it's not. It's 1.4 million to satisfy the pent-up demand of 5 years, and that's what's unimpressive. Verizon sold about 3.2 million in the first quarter of sales in 2011, it's first quarter of sales. China mobile has been hyped as the biggest sales opportunity for iPhones in the world, but comparing 1.4 million for 1 month vs 3.2 million to Verizon in a quarter, back 3 years ago, leaves me unimpressed. Whether I am impressed or not doesn't matter though, the question (for investors) is what the stock market expected. If it on aggregate expected better, then the stock will move down (having already moved up on the hope of better sales in the past). This of course will cause consternation among amateur investors who don't understand how the market works
There really hasn’t been that much pent-up demand for the iPhone among Chinese users. China Unicom and China Telecom (the second largest and third largest telecom operators in China) already offer the iPhone. And you can buy the phone upfront, stick in a China Mobile sim card and it works. There are already millions of China Mobile subscribers who use iPhones.

The 1.4 million is impressive because it’s a forecast of how many people will want to buy subsidized iPhones from China Mobile with a set period (probably a month), and that’s in spite of already being able to use unsubsidized iPhones with a China Mobile sim card, the competing subsidized plans offered by China Unicom and China Telecom and China’s relatively low GDP per capita.
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Old Jan 14, 2014, 06:19 PM   #28
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Old Jan 15, 2014, 05:22 AM   #29
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How are people declaring it a failure when it's not on sale yet??
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Old Jan 15, 2014, 07:08 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Brandon263 View Post
There really hasnít been that much pent-up demand for the iPhone among Chinese users. China Unicom and China Telecom (the second largest and third largest telecom operators in China) already offer the iPhone. And you can buy the phone upfront, stick in a China Mobile sim card and it works. There are already millions of China Mobile subscribers who use iPhones.

The 1.4 million is impressive because itís a forecast of how many people will want to buy subsidized iPhones from China Mobile with a set period (probably a month), and thatís in spite of already being able to use unsubsidized iPhones with a China Mobile sim card, the competing subsidized plans offered by China Unicom and China Telecom and Chinaís relatively low GDP per capita.
And don't forget that many Chinese went to Hong Kong to buy their unsubsidised iPhones which is nearly 18% cheaper.
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Old Jan 15, 2014, 08:34 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by xofruitcake View Post
Not as many 4 and 4s owner will upgrade to 5s and sales will slow down.
Interesting (albeit, completely made up) theory. Too bad reality doesn't agree with your version of the "facts".

% of 4S buyers upgrading from previous iPhone- 72%
% of 5 buyers upgrading from previous iPhone- 83%
% of 5S buyers upgrading from previous iPhone- 86%

Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/iphone...es-statistics/, http://www.statisticbrain.com/iphone...es-statistics/, etc...
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Old Jan 15, 2014, 05:48 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Shizho View Post
Interesting (albeit, completely made up) theory. Too bad reality doesn't agree with your version of the "facts".

% of 4S buyers upgrading from previous iPhone- 72%
% of 5 buyers upgrading from previous iPhone- 83%
% of 5S buyers upgrading from previous iPhone- 86%

Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/iphone...es-statistics/, http://www.statisticbrain.com/iphone...es-statistics/, etc...
heh heh, did you even check your own source of information? The data is from Verizon, AT&T..

Quote:
Source: Apple, AT&T, Sprint, Verizon
Majority of US users are on 2 years subsidy cycle.. The problem for Apple and all phone manufacturer are "the other" countries that has cheaper data plan but everyone buy their own phone. All the analysts has been very wrong about Apple because they focus on US / Japan / Western Europe where data are readily available. Those are not the problem areas. Just look at the headline of this thread: China mobile stocking "only" 1.4M Iphones. CM has 175+M smartphone users as of Aug/Sep last year. So why only 1.4M Iphone? that is less than 1% of their smartphone population???? Do you mean to tell me that they can only convert less than 1% of the users base in the initial launch and we should get really excited about the launch? I am not bullish about CM launch because I saw the CM subsidy plan and it is terrible, much worse than the current plan from CT and CU. And Chinese Iphone msg board discussions focus more about jail breaking 5s than CM launch. Do you know how subsidy plan work in China and specifically how does CT, CU and CM plan work? If not, how can you be very bullish on CM launch?
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Old Jan 15, 2014, 08:01 PM   #33
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China mobile stocking "only" 1.4M Iphones. CM has 175+M smartphone users as of Aug/Sep last year. So why only 1.4M Iphone?
This is the size of the first shipment, not there last. The head of company (China mobile) has said that they have had "millions of pre-orders" since they began taking them around the end of December.

http://www.engadget.com/2014/01/15/a...a-mobile-deal/
http://9to5mac.com/2014/01/15/tim-co...-tv-interview/


Those of the folks that could afford to buy the iphone outright and really wanted the 5s have had months to buy it as chinese could buy the iphone 5s in china from apple or third party vendors and use it on their china mobile connections. The big push now would be for china mobile to come up with a subsidy plan that makes the iphone more affordable to its customers, and as the Company Head mentioned they are a little bit more expensive at the moment compared to their competitors that have had a longer relation with apple and that have had a chance to expereince the product with its customers longer.

People expect china mobile to contribute around 13-30 million iphone sales in 2014..Thats still only around 10% of its smartphone user base at a lower estimate but no one says that apple will conquor the chinese market overnight! And the deal is just not for the Iphone 5s, you have to factor in 5C's 4S's and Ipad's as well...and this is obviously at the back of a product launch which was at the same time as in the US.

Quote:
that is less than 1% of their smartphone population????
No one thinks that china mobile and/or apple would be able to provide 10-20 or even 30% smartphone users under the carrier a phone in the first month...This is a rediculous argument..What did you expect? All of a sudden china mobile's 20 million customers line up outside their stores to pick up a subsidized iphone over the holidays? Things do not happen in emergine markets like that and in China apple is just getting started !

Quote:
If not, how can you be very bullish on CM launch?
I think 15 million iphones sold in the first year would be a very good start for apple with china mobile..Given that its going to take a few years for china mobile to balance out and strike the best possible subsidy model and for the entire concept to pick up with its customers..A hastle free 4G network would also help. What is good to see is the fact that pre orders are running into the millions..and this is before the device is officially available at a china mobile store..I think apple should do very well in the first year with china mobile..And with better with consequent product launches.
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Old Jan 15, 2014, 08:21 PM   #34
Shizho
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Originally Posted by xofruitcake View Post
heh heh, did you even check your own source of information? The data is from Verizon, AT&T..



Majority of US users are on 2 years subsidy cycle.. The problem for Apple and all phone manufacturer are "the other" countries that has cheaper data plan but everyone buy their own phone. All the analysts has been very wrong about Apple because they focus on US / Japan / Western Europe where data are readily available. Those are not the problem areas. Just look at the headline of this thread: China mobile stocking "only" 1.4M Iphones. CM has 175+M smartphone users as of Aug/Sep last year. So why only 1.4M Iphone? that is less than 1% of their smartphone population???? Do you mean to tell me that they can only convert less than 1% of the users base in the initial launch and we should get really excited about the launch? I am not bullish about CM launch because I saw the CM subsidy plan and it is terrible, much worse than the current plan from CT and CU. And Chinese Iphone msg board discussions focus more about jail breaking 5s than CM launch. Do you know how subsidy plan work in China and specifically how does CT, CU and CM plan work? If not, how can you be very bullish on CM launch?
Well... I know that 57% of mobile data traffic in China is done on iOS devices... & that CM is over double the speed of CU and CT, so I guess that seems to bode fairly well, in my mind.
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Old Jan 17, 2014, 12:54 PM   #35
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So . . .

So the sales launched today? Anyone hearing anything about how it went?
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