I was simply talking about the total number of iPhones Apple sells without China Mobile... and the total number of iPhones about would sell with China Mobile.
Why would adding an additional carrier cause Apple to sell fewer iPhones overall?
Let's say the iPhone is on 250 carriers around the world... why would being on 251 carriers be worse?
I don't see how adding China Mobile will cause that.
it is not that the next carrier make Apple sell less on the current carriers.. It is just a sign of the time that the growth rate for smartphone in general slow down a lot yoy. And Apple top end market has even slower growth than the general smartphone market. Looks at it the other way, why shouldn't adding Docomo make fiscal 1Q14 revenue number a lot better than what Apple guided? Docomo has about 60M mobile users and had no Iphone exposure. Japan as a whole has 40% Iphone penetration with Softbank and Au as the two carriers that carry Iphone. If you work the math, the Iphone penetration for Softbank and Au customer base should be in the 60-70% range. So Docomo ultimately should give Apple about 36-42M Iphone sales spread out to 2 years (assuming they follow the 2 year subsidy cycle). That should add 5 to 6M new Iphone uses a quarter. But Apple guidance only show marginal improvement on revenue. Doesn't it tell you that Apple is losing sales somewhere else (as least compare to last year)? The upgrade cycle is the ultimate problem for all smartphone manufacturers. When the samrtphone was not powerful enough, everyone want the latest generation of phone. Right now 4 and 4s are still good enough for a lot of users. So not as many 4 and 4s owner will upgrade to 5s and sales will slow down. This situation is not too severe for subsidy country. But it is very problematic for "buy your device" country. Sales are not static. In fiscal 2013, there are a couple quarters that Apple revenue and earning drop compare to the same quarter in 2012. So sales drop do happen..