Analysts Predict Flat iPad Sales for Q3 2014, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

MacRumors · Jul 18, 2014

Six months after the launch of the iPhone 5s, iPhone 5c, iPad Air and Retina iPad mini, analysts are expecting a slight rise in iPhone sales from last year, with little growth in sales of the iPad, according to new reports from Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Fortune.

Q3 2014 iPhone sales estimates from 15 Wall Street professionals and 11 amateurs range from 31.8 million to 42 million, averaging 35.88 million. During the year-ago quarter, Apple saw 31.24 million iPhone sales, and the estimated year-over-year change is 4.64 million or 14.85 percent growth.

Q3 2014 iPad sales estimates from the 26 analysts range from 12.3 million to 16 million, averaging 14.43 million. During the year-ago quarter, Apple saw 14.62 million iPad sales, and the estimated year-over-year change is -0.19 million, or a slight -1.27 percent decline, which may not be as dramatic as the dip in sales during Q2 2014.

Did sales bounce back in Q3? The 26 analysts Fortune polled are almost evenly divided on the question, with slightly more expecting iPad sales to be lower this quarter than they were the same quarter last year.

The average estimate -- 14.35 million -- suggests that iPad sales were down sequentially and flat year over year. But behind that average is a rather wide range, from a high of 16 million (submitted by Asymco's Horace Dediu and Hilliard's Stephen Turner) to a low of 12.26 million (from Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley).

Thus far in 2014, Apple has not released new iPad or iPhone models. The company is expected to launch several new devices in the fall, however, including the iPhone 6 and updated models of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina Display, which will lead to much stronger sales later in the year.

Apple will announce its earnings for the third fiscal quarter (second calendar quarter) of 2014 on Tuesday, July 22. The earnings release is posted just after 4:30 PM ET following the close of regular stock trading, and the conference call is scheduled to follow at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific.

Article Link: Analysts Predict Flat iPad Sales for Q3 2014, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

CrazyForApple · Jul 18, 2014

not no big deal since the new ones will be coming soon

IJ Reilly · Jul 18, 2014

Here we go again with the "professional" vs. "amateur" analysts.

The correct distinction is between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts. A person isn't an "amateur" simply because they practice their profession freelance.

captain cadet · Jul 18, 2014

Most people either have an iPad or are waiting for a new iPad. It will go like laptop sales - you will have waves of people wanting new laptops and then nobody wants them - it's because they work and there is no majour diffrence between upgrading from an iPad 2 to iPad Air as they will both support IOS 8.

einsteinbqat · Jul 18, 2014

Lost me at the titles very first word.

Piggie · Jul 18, 2014

Exciting new things coming....

Been a long year waiting, but they were promised this year.

Fingers crossed it's all going to be really amazing when we get to see it all.

Must admit, I wish it was more spread over the year.

nzalog · Jul 18, 2014

I predict most people tuned out at "Analysts Predict..."

elvisimprsntr · Jul 18, 2014

I prefer to get my investment advice from someone with a proven track record.

ob81 · Jul 18, 2014

taptic · Jul 18, 2014

Just shut up already.

JohnGrey · Jul 18, 2014

I can't speak for anyone else, but I've waiting for the TouchID to come to the iPad, especially with the added third-party support in IOS 8. I'm currently looking to replace by old iPad 3, and I have really been waiting for TouchID and better color gamut.

HowEver · Jul 18, 2014

Analysts, shmanalysts.

kodos · Jul 18, 2014

iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

It is fairly common these days (caveat: in my circles) to see people look at their tablets and go 'I don't really know why I bought this', and go back to their phone or computer.

My children love them, as they get to play some fun and educational games on their iPads. I love reading on them. But for what Apple is charging for them, it is hard not to see the value proposition in something like the Kindle Fire line for *that* purpose.

But I'm heavily tied into the Apple ecosystem, so we won't be switching. We won't be buying a new one for some time (if ever) however.

pedromcm.pm · Jul 18, 2014

So Apple is going up, and every single big OEM competitor is being put down, while some asian companies (Xiaomi, lenovo, etc.) are going up by taking the low end, in a predictable useless cycle. Soon other companies will take that place.

In the last 16 years there has been only one constant in the tech industry:

Apple makes the best products and they are the ones to innovate and set big trends.

Amazing.

Nice yearly growth in the slow quarter, no one comes close. Maybe if you consider the whole huge samsung electronics (that includes samsung mobile), but even they are going down. Fairly quick, actually.

proline · Jul 18, 2014

kodos said:
iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

Agreed. iOS is the problem. That's why high-end productivity tablets running Android and Windows are doing so well and why Samsung's profits are up... oh wait, maybe you should sit down and think for a while before posting.

sully54 · Jul 18, 2014

This is a good sign for the iwatch actually. I read somewhere that apple waits until they bread and butter product starts showing flat growth before introducing a new product category. In the graph, iPhone was released when iPod sales started going flat.

speedyaxon · Jul 18, 2014

captain cadet said:
..... there is no majour diffrence between upgrading from an iPad 2 to iPad Air as they will both support IOS 8.

I'd argue the move to a retina display could be considered a major difference. Supporting iOS 8 isn't the only thing people care about.

taptic · Jul 18, 2014

kodos said:
iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

It is fairly common these days (caveat: in my circles) to see people look at their tablets and go 'I don't really know why I bought this', and go back to their phone or computer.

My children love them, as they get to play some fun and educational games on their iPads. I love reading on them. But for what Apple is charging for them, it is hard not to see the value proposition in something like the Kindle Fire line for *that* purpose.

But I'm heavily tied into the Apple ecosystem, so we won't be switching. We won't be buying a new one for some time (if ever) however.

If you know anything about anything concerning the android vs iOS debate, you'd know that those expensive iPads pay for themselves in the long run.

Konrad9 · Jul 18, 2014

Isn't this how it always goes?

pedromcm.pm · Jul 18, 2014

proline said:
Agreed. iOS is the problem. That's why high-end productivity tablets running Android and Windows are doing so well and why Samsung's profits are up... oh wait, maybe you should sit down and think for a while before posting.

Actually I get this point. The iPad itself likely outsells every high end tablet (model vs model) by more than 100 to 1, BUT:

- It does it because it looks amazing, has apps that take advantage of it, iOS as a platform is unmatched, etc.

However, the OS UI itself does not take advantage of the big canvas. I understand rows of icons on phones. I believe that the iPhone is overall the best phone and platform by a large margin, obviously. Widgets as notifications (relevant) and something as Google Now on Google Now Launcher is smart (quick glance of useful info), but they make widgets on home screens useless. The iPhone is great as it is.

But rows of icons ALONE on the iPad isn' enough. Maybe 3 rows, and use the rest of the screen (on top) as a permanent Google Now type of thing.

(I use Android).

MacSince1990 · Jul 18, 2014

IJ Reilly said:
Here we go again with the "professional" vs. "amateur" analysts.

The correct distinction is between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts. A person isn't an "amateur" simply because they practice their profession freelance.

Maybe, but to be fair they both have pretty similar patterns of prediction: Being right less than they're wrong.

rdlink · Jul 18, 2014

proline said:
Agreed. iOS is the problem. That's why high-end productivity tablets running Android and Windows are doing so well and why Samsung's profits are up... oh wait, maybe you should sit down and think for a while before posting.

You just don't get it, do you?

He and his four friends find no use for the iPad, so the other 70+ million people who bought one over the last year are just an anomaly. He can't figure out how to be productive with one, so surely nobody else has. They're all just sitting in a desk drawer somewhere, because none of these people can figure out a productive way to use it for business:

http://www.apple.com/ipad/business/profiles/

And these guys haven't figured out how to use it to educate:

http://www.apple.com/education/ipad/teach-with-ipad/

And these artists haven't a clue how to make it productive:

http://blogs.computerworld.com/16776/six_reasons_ipad_is_a_productivity_tool

Yeah, iOS is such an issue...

Piggie · Jul 18, 2014

pedromcm.pm said:
y:

Apple makes the best products.

No they don't, and never will, as you cannot define best.
They probably don't use the BEST in anything.

Best screens?
Best SSD's?
Best CPU's ?
Best Graphics cards?

What say Steve Jobs thought was best for him was not best for others.
Likewise what I think it best for me is not best for you.

Slapping a laptop GPU in a 2000+ dollar machine on your desk (iMac) for me it not best. It's dam shoddy and poor.

IJ Reilly · Jul 18, 2014

MacSince1990 said:
Maybe, but to be fair they both have pretty similar patterns of prediction: Being right less than they're wrong.

Not really. The consensus earnings forecasts are rarely more than 5% off, but I guess you expect them to predict the precise number every time, or they are wrong. You know, to be fair.

PocketSand11 · Jul 18, 2014

kodos said:
iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

It's not even supposed to be a productivity device. If you want Mac OS, LinuxMint, or Windows, use a laptop. Much better in any case. Those tablet/PC hybrids like the Surface are gross.

Analysts Predict Flat iPad Sales for Q3 2014, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

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