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grahamperrin

macrumors 601
Jun 8, 2007
4,942
648
GoSquared views are better now …
 

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grahamperrin

macrumors 601
Jun 8, 2007
4,942
648
The most popular is not necessarily the best

… It seems that Yosemite adoption has increased to 14% from 4% following the release. … numbers just few days after release don't mean much — I wonder how it will look in a month or two.

Yeah, variances can be surprising.

3.6 … 2.8 … 3.3 shortly after release. And around three hours ago there was an observable drop of around four percent. Up and down and so on, and (recalling Tim Cook's comments) adoption rates are not everything; there should be more focus on producing the best than on becoming the most popular.
 

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leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,202
19,061
Yeah, variances can be surprising.

3.6 … 2.8 … 3.3 shortly after release. And around three hours ago there was an observable drop of around four percent. Up and down and so on, and (recalling Tim Cook's comments) adoption rates are not everything; there should be more focus on producing the best than on becoming the most popular.

The variance is because of the way they sample data, that's why its important to look at daily/weekly averages instead (which we still don't have).

As to your 'popular is not better' — its a very banal statement. The reality is far more complicated. In this case, adoption rate reflects the proportion of OS X users which have actively took the time to migrate to a new OS. This is a change, a diachronic trend. I am far more inclined to believe that a strong diachronic trend signals a certain preference than a strong synchronic trend. After all, a diachronic trend means that there is an interest in the new product and a certain eagerness to use it, while a synchronic trend can be often explained by historical reasons.

Again, it is way to early to read something definitive into this trend so early on, but if this continues, its a clear sign that users are actively interested to changing to Yosemite from whichever system they are using now. Which kind of leads us back to the appropriate definition of 'better' ;)
 

grahamperrin

macrumors 601
Jun 8, 2007
4,942
648
… 'popular is not better' — its a very banal statement. …

Banal? Probably. It's also somewhat different from what I wrote ;-)

Re: averages etc.: naturally, I agree.

Mavericks

I don't have screenshots handy but in December 2013 and again in January 2014, in a forum elsewhere I wrote:

Now in Mavericks we have improved battery life, performance and so on, but the public as a whole seems unexcited:

Mavericks Adoption - OS X Version Distribution - GoSquared

Why such a great percentage of users not taking advantage of a free upgrade?

This, I think, goes deeper than people waiting for .1 or .2 …​

Last year:

Code:
      October               November      
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa  Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
       1  2  3  4  5                  1  2
 6  7  8  9 10 11 12   3  4  5  6  7  8  9
13 14 15 16 17 18 19  10 11 12 13 14 15 16
20 21 22 23 24 25 26  17 18 19 20 21 22 23
27 28 29 30 31        24 25 26 27 28 29 30

6 hours – 2.57%
12 hours – 4.39%
24 hours – 7.42%
36 hours – 9.20%

… Before the launch, Mountain Lion was responsible for roughly half of all Mac traffic. That’s now dropped to around 40%.

… Older Mac operating systems such as Lion, Snow Leopard, Leopard and Tiger have remained relatively unchanged. …


A plateau of around sixteen percent was observed around three weeks after the release (2013-10-22) of OS X 10.9.

Early June 2014 – Mavericks at 52.3 percent:

attachment.php


How quickly will Mac OS X Yosemite be adopted after WWDC 2014?

Reviewing OS X Mavericks adoption ahead of WWDC 2014


Yosemite

Mid-September 2014 – Yosemite pre-release, Mavericks at sixty-six percent:

attachment.php


Review

It'll make sense to compare the figures/graphs around three weeks from now.

Friday 7th November, maybe …
 

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dfhsfh

macrumors newbie
Oct 18, 2014
4
0
Not really surprising based on the fact it was available as a public beta...I know they mentioned this in the article but you hardly have to be a rocket scientist to realise there would be a significant increase.
36.gif
 

grahamperrin

macrumors 601
Jun 8, 2007
4,942
648
A peak around lunchtime on Tuesday

28.27% measured by GoSquared at 13:00 on Tuesday 2014-10-21.

17% Thursday night, at or near a nightly trough.
 

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grahamperrin

macrumors 601
Jun 8, 2007
4,942
648
Today's peak is around four percent lower than Tuesday's. I guess that the peaks will rise again at or after the weekend.
 

grahamperrin

macrumors 601
Jun 8, 2007
4,942
648
A little rejection in the midst of adoption

Yosemite's adoption rate appears to be starting to level off just over 20% …

Maybe it's too early to tell but with Mavericks I seem to remember that sort of curve starting off almost as a line with increasing, not decreasing slope and just continuing.

Wouldn't it be something if after a period of time the Yosemite user curve started a downward trend? It would imply regression back to previous OSes.

A lessening of peaks was remarkable but, for the reasons given above, I shouldn't treat that as significant.

Re: my growing list of selected bookmarks about the perceived ugliness of Yosemite – http://tinyurl.com/1010uglystick – just a few people have used then rejected Yosemite.

That list aside: as expected, for some people the reasons for rejection are unrelated to the appearance/looks of the operating system. Again, just a few; not many people. I have a sense that ugliness is the most common reason for rejection, but that's probably because my search terms have a bias for words such as 'fugly'.

----

Plus there's a group of people who give reasons for refraining from installation, but that's debatably off-topic from adoption and rejection rates.
 
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