Do you understand English? "Sold" does not equate to "currently in use". Phones get broken, damaged, lost, stolen/bricked, etc. Try and find an iPhone 4 without a broken screen. What you going to do when you upgrade - answer is probably throw it in the bin.
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Once again you're making the figures up as you go along which was my point. What is your source for the figures you quote? Show me a link to the exact number of iPhones sold since launch.
Google A LOT, BEFORE INSULTING... HMMM.
BTW, I said 400M by September 2015
If were talking December 2015, well I wouldn't even need to put up this thing because it would be OBVIOUS that it would be the case...
Take those stats,
http://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/
http://www.computerworld.com/articl...e-5s-5c-sales-mix-resembles-2012-s-blend.html
(this would relate to financial 2013, 2014)
Product Mix for Financial 2013 : 65% 5, 27% 4S, 8% 4 , so 65% Apple Watch compatible
Product Mix for Financial 2014: 65% 5S, 27% 5C, 8% 4S, 92% Apple Watch compatible
Product Mix for Financial 2015: Nearly 100% Apple Watch compatible (the number of 4S sold will probably about 2%)
So,
Financial 2013 (10/2012, 10/2012) you got 125M Iphone Sold, 81M Compatible
Financial 2014 (10/2013, 10/2014) you got 165M Iphone sold, 152M Compatible
Financial 2015 (10/2014, 10/2015) you got an estimate for 200-210M phones sold, 196-206M compatible
(Most people are saying 71M for Q1, that's 40% higher than Q1 last year BTW)
FULL REPLACEMENT OF BROKEN PHONES
I estimate this generously at 2% per year, per phone.
If broken on warantee Apple doesn'T counts them as sales, but as an expense, so they would have no effect on the numbers.
Year1 phones* (4% + 1%) (only half year for average phone), Year2 phones (2 + 1%), Year 3 phones (1%)
So, 4M + 4.5M + 2M = About 10.5M Phones broken and replaced. Substracting 2.5M for Apple replace phones ( a bit arbitrary and probably low)
Replacement of Fiscal 2013 phones would get them a Apple Watch compatible phone.
(1-Y1) * 5% = 2.2M
PRE RETIREMENT TOTAL
That leaves 81M Iphone 5, 152M Iphone 5s, 5c, About 200M 5c, 6, 6+ - 8M + 2.2 = about 433M without accounting for retirements.
RETIREMENTS
This is were it gets really complicated, but I'll try to simplify it quite a bit to make it simpler.
I'll assume no phones sold in Fiscal 2014, 2015 will be retired. Almost surely not true, but probably close to reality.
Those with money and without contract would be the most likely to buy a phone every year
(but also the most likely to resell it, so the 5S phones would still be in use). I'll call it a wash for less than 2 year old phones by 9/2015.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-hoard-13-billion-in-old-iphones-2014-02-12
For fiscal 2013, its a bit more iffy, a survey seems to say that 50% of phones are retired when buying a new Iphone.
Most phones that were retired in 2014 were 4 and 4S, thus non Watch compatible, it doesn't change the number, which jibes with my previous assertion.
If ALL Iphone 5 owners bought new phones by September 2015, We'd get 41M less Iphone 5 in circulation.
That's obviously not true. There will be a substantial number of 5 still active.
If 35% of those phones are still active (low estimate) by September 2015 ( 50% * 65 % * 81M) =26.4M are retired)
So, the lower bound on Apple Watch compatible Iphones would be by September 2015 = 407.5M
(If 10% of 5S users buy 6 and 6+ and 50% get resold, you get 7.5M less than that number).
That is 400M exactly.
So, Hey, my assertions of 400M Iphones existing by September is NOT out of left field at all buddy.
This estimate is also close to some other people's estimate.
