Waiting for Broadwell MBP Thread

capitanbuzo said:

How did you get a discount?

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I didn't get a discount. A 2.8GHz 15" MacBook Pro costs $2299 -- unless one wants a discrete GPU with it in which case it costs $2799. For reasons of reliability, battery life, and price, I prefer to not have a discrete GPU.

Kendo said:

Curious why you upgraded so early? You had a 2013 MBP which is still super fast.

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The answer is in the text you quoted. I plan to drive two 4K monitors with it.

mcarling said:

I've given up on waiting for Broadwell.

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What happened but ? You were the one who very strongly advocated for the possibility that Apple will and surely will bring the 15inch rMBP with Broadwell Chips, And now you say that you given up waiting for Broadwell !! Have you also been starting to feel this, that there will be no Broadwell on rMBP 15 inch and Apple will directly Jump to Skylake based rMBP ?

augustya said:

What happened but ? You were the one who very strongly advocated for the possibility that Apple will and surely will bring the 15inch rMBP with Broadwell Chips, And now you say that you given up waiting for Broadwell !!

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What happened is that I updated my expectations in accordance with Bayes' Law.

augustya said:

Have you also been starting to feel this, that there will be no Broadwell on rMBP 15 inch and Apple will directly Jump to Skylake based rMBP ?

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That remains to be seen.

mcarling said:

What happened is that I updated my expectations in accordance with Bayes' Law.

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Bayes' Law which is ?

augustya said:

Bayes' Law which is ?

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

mcarling said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

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lol !

So other than the battery and force touch trackpad, the lower tier 15" is no different from last year's model?

RichardC300 said:

So other than the battery and force touch trackpad, the lower tier 15" is no different from last year's model?

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I believe the new 15" MBP also has the faster SSD introduced with the 13" Broadwell MBP a few months ago.

RichardC300 said:

So other than the battery and force touch trackpad, the lower tier 15" is no different from last year's model?

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Trackpad, faster SSD, battery, new dGPU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0OUhzRDUIU

The new SSD seems to be insane

mcarling said:

What happened is that I updated my expectations in accordance with Bayes' Law.

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I am not certain how Baye's Law on conditional probability applies in this instance. Please enlighten me.

Cheers,

Donald Barar

What he probably meant

He probably meant that, the probability of a broadwell update, knowing we were very close to the refresh and that it wasn't announced during a public event is very thin. In fact, using Bayes law, most significant updates (or considered so by the many) are usually during special events (keynotes), which would mean this isn't considered by apple as a significant update. And there must be a probability that says that the probability of having a significant update knowing the previous one wasn't is pretty high.
Also the average time between macbook pro models and blah blah blah, a lot of related probabilities. I'm sure we could make some kind formula using Bayes theorem looking in the past, that would tell us that a Skylake refresh is more likely, but whatever.
And anyway, all I just said was all interpretation of what he said over speculation ?

dgbarar said:

I am not certain how Baye's Law on conditional probability applies in this instance. Please enlighten me.

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Without getting into the math, it's just about updating one's expectations based on additional information.

mcarling said:

Without getting into the math, it's just about updating one's expectations based on additional information.

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In before Bayesian versus Frequentist debate

The Iris Pro 6200 are release so, the new macbook pro can be and will be release this year.
So what TDP macbook pro 15" uses?
http://www.zdnet.com/article/intel-updates-fifth-gen-core-chips-with-iris-pro-graphics/

So the 15" MBP will be release in Oct with the Mac/iPad event with the base config i7 at 2.5 ghz and upgraded model with the 2.7ghz and both BTO with the i7 2.9 ghz

UBS28 said:

In 1 or 2 months the Broadwell Quad core mobile cpu's with the Iris Pro 6200 at a TDp of 47W should hit the market according to the latest news.

So at the earliest the Broadwell 15" rMBP can be released in 2 months.

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http://www.anandtech.com/show/9326/intel-launches-five-47w-laptop-broadwell-skus

No. Broadwell Quad Core CPUs launched just today.

Update to Macbook Pro was few days ago .
Apple must have known that Intel will launch them, why they not waited those few days to update them at WWDC? O_O

Edit. Also, dual core i5 with Iris Pro have launched. That would INSANE addition to 13 inch MBP.

Mmmmh... so, what to make of this now?

On one hand a release of these Broadwell chips now make very suspect any claim of the Skylake equivalent chips released before 2016. On the other hand, as many commented, seeing how close the 15W and 28W Broadwell chips were in the 2015 MBA vs rMBP13, and passing on the 47W quad Broadwell for the rMBP15, with an early Skylake release (if fabs are ready, and designs too, a long delay of the roll-out would only be artificial at this point) Apple could redesign its rMBP line around dual 15W for rMBP13 and quad 37W (?) for the rMBP15.

With the <6W rMB at the bottom, the jump would be gradually ~2.5x on its 3 notebooks, and this would allow a rMBP line redesign without too many compromises (thinner = less battery volume = less weight, and without heat gain) ? 37W quad Skylake vs 47W quad Haswell (rMBP15 mid'15) would probably hold, and 15W dual Skylake vs 28W dual Broadwell (rMBP13 early '15) probably too, including iGPU.

Apple were certainly well-informed regarding Intel's plans for Broadwell and Skylake, including availability in August of Broadwell CPUs suitable for the 15" MBP. So why was the mid-2015 15" MBP released in May? My best guess is that last month's release provides Apple with the freshest possible MBP in time for the back-to-school shopping season. It means that Apple might release a Broadwell 15" MBP in about October in time for the Xmas/Hanukah/Kwanza/Festivus holiday shopping season and then Skylake MBPs after the Chinese New Year shopping season. We'll see.

mcarling said:

So why was the mid-2015 15" MBP released in May? My best guess is that last month's release provides Apple with the freshest possible MBP in time for the back-to-school shopping season.

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Freshest, freshest ... this could have happened earlier this year: the dGPU option, the SSD speed, the trackpad, they all were available to Apple in March with the rMBP13 update. And they probably already knew at the time about Broadwell 47W parts future availability.
It rather looks to me like knowing they will skip Broadwell for the rMBP15, they rather delayed as much as possible the release of the Haswell second refresh, just before Broadwell is presented (as you said, for holiday season, but also to minimize the time before the next upgrade).

mcarling said:

It means that Apple might release a Broadwell 15" MBP in about October in time for the Xmas/Hanukah/Kwanza/Festivus holiday shopping season and then Skylake MBPs after the Chinese New Year shopping season. We'll see.

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So May -> October -> March
The october update could be an easy swap in the line of production, but then why even bother updating the rMBP15 last May? There is nothing groundbreaking in this update.
I could imagine update 2 then 3, I can imagine 1 then 3, but the whole three upgrades don't seem to me too likely.

chleuasme said:

Freshest, freshest ... this could have happened earlier this year: the dGPU option, the SSD speed, the trackpad, they all were available to Apple in March with the rMBP13 update. And they probably already knew at the time about Broadwell 47W parts future availability.

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For example, Apple may have been concerned about how fast Force Trackpad production could be ramped up, which would justify releasing the refreshed 15" MBP in May rather than March. Alternatively, back at about the beginning of 2015, Apple may have received an update from Intel would could have led Apple to doubt satisfactory Broadwell-H availability in the numbers needed to meet back-to-school demand, leading Apple to decide to introduce last month's refresh as a stopgap, too late to ship in March. The idea that the timing of the March and May MBP updates somehow indicate that Apple will skip the 15" Broadwell MBP is just one of a handful of equally plausible theories.