Apple to Manufacture Verizon-Compatible iPhone in Q3 2010?

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by cmaier

There's a HUGE difference between REMOVING wi-fi and ADDING cdma. And the amount of work required to support CDMA (baseband code, higher level code to deal with no voice/data simultaneously, hardware engineering, etc.) is tremendous.

Not really.

Code is provided with each chipset, and companies often hire a contractor with porting experience.

Everyone from Palm to HTC to Samsung and inbetween, has CDMA models. Many of the latest Verizon phones have both UMTS and CDMA capability.

Apple themselves started with an EDGE only model (with very limited world appeal because of that), then added the additional WCDMA radio necessary to gain 3G and more markeplace.

[cmaier]

Originally Posted by kdarling

Not really.

Code is provided with each chipset, and companies often hire a contractor with porting experience.

Everyone from Palm to HTC to Samsung and inbetween, has CDMA models. Many of the latest Verizon phones have both UMTS and CDMA capability.

Apple themselves started with an EDGE only model (with very limited world appeal because of that), then added the additional WCDMA radio necessary to gain 3G and more markeplace.

Yes really. The fact that other phone manufacturers support CDMA doesn't mean that they didn't spend a lot of effort to do so. The companies you mentioned are also all (other than samsung) primarily cellphone companies, which means the marginal benefit of additional CDMA sales is higher.

And your EDGE->WCDMA argument proves my point, because by adding WCDMA, they were able to expand from just a few countries to worldwide sales. Massive incremental benefit (far more than adding CDMA). My repeated argument has been that adding CDMA buys them too few new customers to be worth the hassle in supporting a far more complicated baseband (or two basebands) and a far more complicated hardware design (or two hardware designs).

As a guy who spent 10 years designing microprocessors and shipping reference designs with reference code, I can tell you Apple ain't gonna let the chipset manufacturer write their baseband code for them. And they ain't gonna hire some magic contractor who will "port" the code for them. They are going to have to write the code themselves, and, more importantly, support it themselves.

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by cmaier

My repeated argument has been that adding CDMA buys them too few new customers to be worth the hassle in supporting a far more complicated baseband (or two basebands) and a far more complicated hardware design (or two hardware designs).

Many people bring up the bogus idea that there's some magical worldwide GSM market that can be tapped... ignoring the lack of 3G, spare income for data plans, home computers, and other necessary infrastructure in many places.

The fact is, about 12% of USA GSM (ATT) customers with legal access to the iPhone have bought one. About 0.2% of GSM customers with carrier access overseas have done so.

Or put another way, a bit less than half of all iPhone sales are in the USA.

There are 130 million CDMA users in North America. Get 10% of that, and CDMA sales easily could equal all overseas sales, and become one third of world sales.

As a guy who spent 10 years designing microprocessors and shipping reference designs with reference code, I can tell you Apple ain't gonna let the chipset manufacturer write their baseband code for them.

As a embedded guy who's spent 30 years writing code for bit-slice MPUs to SoCs to the first GPUs, who's designed touchscreen handhelds and continent-wide casino realtime gaming systems, and who has ported chipset code and OS's as a subcontractor, I politely disagree.

I guarantee you that most of the baseband code came from the manufacturer. Although as you say, companies often take over support.

It's not even that hard. I've asked a GSM supplier to create a one-off CDMA handheld for me, and they did it in a month.

The point is, it can be done, and it's not that hard. I personally believe that Apple is fully capable of creating a combo CDMA/UMTS phone... and then getting a really good ROI.

Moreover, they almost have to create such a device, before Android gets a deep foothold in most of the US market. They can't wait for 2014 for LTE to be fully deployed (and even then, it's not likely to be carrier agnostic.)

Regards.

[David085]

When Verizon gets the iPhone I am switching to them.

[vivithemage]

Originally Posted by manhattanboy

what about the requirements for a backup network? The single Chip is ok... but seems wasteful given that everyone wants to migrate over to 4G. I also do not think Jobs will forgive Verizon for slamming his prize baby.

When he sees the $$$ he will.

[Tanglewood]

I've been skimming through the 14 pages of this thread and I don't profess to have read everything though I do find it funny all the people making comments on Verizon bad mouthing the iPhone recently. Others have said its all marketing. To use an example, how many times has Apple been hardline on something and then switching to the other side?

I think the best one was back in '03 when Apple played it to their advantage and launched iTunes for windows with the tagline "Hell froze over".

[63dot]

Originally Posted by kdarling

Many people bring up the bogus idea that there's some magical worldwide GSM market that can be tapped... ignoring the lack of 3G, spare income for data plans, home computers, and other necessary infrastructure in many places.

The fact is, about 12% of USA GSM (ATT) customers with legal access to the iPhone have bought one. About 0.2% of GSM customers with carrier access overseas have done so.

Or put another way, a bit less than half of all iPhone sales are in the USA.

There are 130 million CDMA users in North America. Get 10% of that, and CDMA sales easily could equal all overseas sales, and become one third of world sales.

As a embedded guy who's spent 30 years writing code for bit-slice MPUs to SoCs to the first GPUs, who's designed touchscreen handhelds and continent-wide casino realtime gaming systems, and who has ported chipset code and OS's as a subcontractor, I politely disagree.

I guarantee you that most of the baseband code came from the manufacturer. Although as you say, companies often take over support.

It's not even that hard. I've asked a GSM supplier to create a one-off CDMA handheld for me, and they did it in a month.

The point is, it can be done, and it's not that hard. I personally believe that Apple is fully capable of creating a combo CDMA/UMTS phone... and then getting a really good ROI.

Moreover, they almost have to create such a device, before Android gets a deep foothold in most of the US market. They can't wait for 2014 for LTE to be fully deployed (and even then, it's not likely to be carrier agnostic.)

Regards.

Is it possible there is a legal reason for Apple not going with Verizon right now. The contract goes through December of 2010.

PM or emailing several attorneys (here and on social networking sites) on this makes it seem apparent that Apple won't go to Verizon before 12/2010. There's a lot of argument elsewhere on the internet on this very issue. It appears Apple made a five year contract with Verizon (Lexis-Nexis) four years ago next month.

Is it physically possible to make iPhone work with Verizon? Yes. But is it worth a breach of contract for Apple to either ditch AT&T or add one other companies in the US? Just Google this and you won't find anything showing Apple with anybody else in the US. There are at least five other companies with Apple, but in other countries.

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by 63dot

It appears Apple made a five year contract with Verizon (Lexis-Nexis) four years ago next month.

Did you mean to write Cingular (ATT) ?

If so, there was never any evidence of a five year contract. That myth started from a snarky comment from a Verizon executive, making fun of the idea of users being "stuck" on ATT for "five years".

It now appears that the first exclusivity contract ran from summer 2006 to summer 2008, then was renewed for two more years to summer 2010. Again, I say "appears", since we can only go from semi-vague statements... including ATT's CEO recent talks about what happens to ATT after their iPhone exclusive expires.

If exclusivity does expire in mid-2010, then I can't see Apple waiting another 3.5 years for LTE to be fully deployed. I think we're far more likely to see a combo CDMA/GSM iPhone, just like so many other new phones on Verizon.

We could also see Verizon swap in EVDO-Advanced cards to towers in major cities in mid-2010, which will not only quadruple voice and data capacity, but allow simultaneous voice+data (SVDO) to new phones. Don't you know that Apple would love to be a first new model using that on Verizon.

There are lots of possibilities. It's anyone's guess at this point.

[63dot]

Originally Posted by kdarling

Did you mean to write Cingular (ATT) ?

If so, there was never any evidence of a five year contract. That myth started from a snarky comment from a Verizon executive, making fun of the idea of users being "stuck" on ATT for "five years".

It now appears that the first exclusivity contract ran from summer 2006 to summer 2008, then was renewed for two more years to summer 2010. Again, I say "appears", since we can only go from semi-vague statements... including ATT's CEO recent talks about what happens to ATT after their iPhone exclusive expires.

If exclusivity does expire in mid-2010, then I can't see Apple waiting another 3.5 years for LTE to be fully deployed. I think we're far more likely to see a combo CDMA/GSM iPhone, just like so many other new phones on Verizon.

We could also see Verizon swap in EVDO-Advanced cards to towers in major cities in mid-2010, which will not only quadruple voice and data capacity, but allow simultaneous voice+data (SVDO) to new phones. Don't you know that Apple would love to be a first new model using that on Verizon.

There are lots of possibilities. It's anyone's guess at this point.

cmaier is a patent attorney and he should know the details on this one.

I read a WSJ article on it and checked back with law school resources. However, there's a lot on the internet that give different dates so it's kind of confusing to say the least. I am just a student so I don't know the fine print of technical contracts, so maybe there is another contract out there. I was referring to "a" contract between ATT and Apple that ends a year from now, that's all. God knows how many other contracts exist between those companies.

When I went to the Apple store, some the the geeky salespeople told me how I can get an iPhone but use somebody other than ATT, however, I don't know if that meant Verizon or not. I use ATT with my Motorola Razr and it's fine by me though not great. I kind of like the iPod Touch for my purposes and a simple cell phone for just calling on the rare ocassion that I use a cell phone.

[cmaier]

I don't think anyone really knows what the contracts are, but based on AT&T's 10K disclosures, I'd guess the 2 years + 2 more years scenario is probably right. I also doubt there is any "no CDMA anywhere in the world" clause.

[cloud]

People, the writing is on the wall.

Apple will begin to close the loop. They will make a "iPhone nano" that needs no data-plan. That way, all the millions of people with a normal phone will get this new iPhone. It will use Wi-Fi, so it can still have the App Store and the iTunes Store. It might not have GPS built in...at first. It can get that in a later hardware upgrade, just like how Apple likes to do the iPods.

They'll probably sell it for $79 on multiply carriers. The normal iPhone can still be with AT&T under an exclusive contract. Everyone can't handle a smartphone plan. This will help.

[63dot]

Originally Posted by cloud

People, the writing is on the wall.

Apple will begin to close the loop. They will make a "iPhone nano" that needs no data-plan. That way, all the millions of people with a normal phone will get this new iPhone. It will use Wi-Fi, so it can still have the App Store and the iTunes Store. It might not have GPS built in...at first. It can get that in a later hardware upgrade, just like how Apple likes to do the iPods.

They'll probably sell it for $79 on multiply carriers. The normal iPhone can still be with AT&T under an exclusive contract. Everyone can't handle a smartphone plan. This will help.

That would be very cool.

What I love about Apple, is whenever we find a need for extra features or services, they come out swinging and give us more than we can imagine.

When I wanted a low cost laptop in 1999 and didn't like the $3,000 dollar PC offerings, Apple came out with iBook at $1599. When I wanted an Apple desktop, I got the G4 with not one powerful G4 processor, but two processors running the machine. When people wanted an Apple branded cell, they gave us iPhone. And the biggest thrill was iPod/iTunes, which surpassed even the rumors of the biggest dreamers out there.

Let's see what happens with iPhone's future. People talk about more carriers, bigger screens, more compact screens on ultra-thin cell phones, etc. What if Apple gave us all of these over the next 12 months? It would not be out of character for them.

[DaDak]

Is there really any truth behind this?

[63dot]

Originally Posted by DaDak

Is there really any truth behind this?

...more behind what kdarling is saying or what cmaier is saying?

Either this Verizon-Apple thing will happen soon or not. As for happening later, there's so much that can happen between now and a few years from now, so anything is possible given enough time.

What a lot of this thread seems to be centered around is if Verizon will team with Apple "soon", if it's possible or easy, if it's affordable, if it makes market share sense, if Apple can have more than one carrier, etc. There seems to be a lot of very knowledgeable people on this thread with differing opinions and speculations.

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by DaDak

Is there really any truth behind this?

There is an element of truth in most stories. This is why intelligence agencies have open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis sections.

Factory leaks can often provide good information. I watch for those a lot.

For example, a couple of months before the iPhone was first publicly revealed by Jobs, there was a little article talking about Foxconn making it. This gave the manufacturer long before such info appeared on Apple websites.

The trouble these days, is that there are so many future phones being manufactured in China for so many different companies, a leak could be mistaken about whose it is.

So, while a CDMA+GSM iPhone makes market sense and thus is an easy prediction, IMO there's not enough evidence for its shape and size yet.

I would be quite happy to be proven wrong, though!

[DaDak]

ah... thanks for the replies. I'm just hoping I will be able to get an iPhone (with verizon) by the end of next year. Which would be really nice.

[polaris20]

Having used the Droid for a few days, I can't say I really care at this point whether or not the iPhone comes to Verizon. The Droid is that good. Turn by turn directions have obsoleted my Nuvi, call quality is astounding, e-mail and browser are fantastic. Social networking clients are just as good (or in the case of Twitter, better) than what is on the iPhone/iPT. Virtual keyboard is just as good as the iPT. I'm really digging this phone a lot.

[Rocketman]

Originally Posted by polaris20

Having used the Droid for a few days, I can't say I really care at this point whether or not the iPhone comes to Verizon. The Droid is that good. Turn by turn directions have obsoleted my Nuvi, call quality is astounding, e-mail and browser are fantastic. Social networking clients are just as good (or in the case of Twitter, better) than what is on the iPhone/iPT. Virtual keyboard is just as good as the iPT. I'm really digging this phone a lot.

I don't doubt how functional it is. The monthly cost is higher.

The droid plans have a top end voice price of $60/mo. Add unlimited data and it's $80/mo. Add unlimited texting and it's $100/mo. These are fixed plans so if texting is your thing you need the full boat plan. Otherwise you get perMB web and per message texting and per message video emails. All this with a 450 minute cap.

I think on the EDGE iPhone we pay $40/mo with unlimited data and crippled texting and calling which is used very little. The 3GS is around $60/mo with unlimited data, all the phone usage an old person needs or wants, and we don't text.

So AT&T is considerably less dollars.

Rocketman

[polaris20]

Originally Posted by Rocketman

I don't doubt how functional it is. The monthly cost is higher.

The droid plans have a top end voice price of $60/mo. Add unlimited data and it's $80/mo. Add unlimited texting and it's $100/mo. These are fixed plans so if texting is your thing you need the full boat plan. Otherwise you get perMB web and per message texting and per message video emails. All this with a 450 minute cap.

I think on the EDGE iPhone we pay $40/mo with unlimited data and crippled texting and calling which is used very little. The 3GS is around $60/mo with unlimited data, all the phone usage an old person needs or wants, and we don't text.

So AT&T is considerably less dollars.

Rocketman

AT&T is considerably worse performance as well. I'll pay more money if I actually get 3G and no dropped calls.

Besides, for me personally the cost doesn't matter, as I don't pay for it anyway.

EDIT

Also, not sure where the higher cost comes in, as I just looked at AT&T and for the same amount of minutes, unlimited data, and same amount of texting it would save me $5 a month to go with AT&T. Wow. Big deal.

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by Rocketman

I don't doubt how functional it is. The monthly cost is higher. ...

How so? Both ATT and Verizon have $40 for 450 mins + $30 for data.

The 3GS is around $60/mo with unlimited data, all the phone usage an old person needs or wants, and we don't text.

Not sure why you think you pay $60. See above. Do you have a discount or something?

[sk24iam]

So let's suppose the Iphone does come to Verizon... What are the chances that Verizon offers an insurance plan on it?

[cmaier]

Originally Posted by sk24iam

So let's suppose the Iphone does come to Verizon... What are the chances that Verizon offers an insurance plan on it?

Since people are completely guessing as to the first point, how would anyone be able to answer the second?

There is no chance of a Verizon iPhone before 2011, so don't worry about it.

[63dot]

Originally Posted by cmaier

Since people are completely guessing as to the first point, how would anyone be able to answer the second?

There is no chance of a Verizon iPhone before 2011, so don't worry about it.

You are probably right, and I agree with you as many here do, but shouldn't you be busy checking out patents?

[cmaier]

Originally Posted by 63dot

You are probably right, and I agree with you as many here do, but shouldn't you be busy checking out patents?

Just settled a case so work is slow right now (probably due to the upcoming holidays).

[63dot]

Originally Posted by cmaier

Just settled a case so work is slow right now (probably due to the upcoming holidays).

Maybe you can join with longtime Macrumors member, mcrain, the other lawyer who posts here, and get Apple to ink a deal with Verizon.