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Old May 21, 2003, 09:48 PM   #1
Mineral
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Exclamation Looking 3-5 years down the road.. I see Apple with a 25%+ market share..

Anyone else agree?

This whole delay for Longhorn..

The Palladium 1984-ish features of Windows coming soon..

Macs are about to get REALLY fast..

Probably will see two MAJOR OSX updates before Longhorn..

Apple Music Store..

Incredible Notebook sales..



I dunno.. what do you guys think? What could be the "nail in the coffin" for M$'s monopoly?

Personally, I don't care if millions are stupid and ignorant enough to primarily use PC's with Windows.. but eventually the word will get out.

I'd like to see the 80's again.. Apple domination.
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Old May 21, 2003, 10:19 PM   #2
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i see that too. as long as apple keeps everything on track..the 970's 980's are gonna make macs fast..not fast but FAST. ten will evolve into something extrordianary....products will evolve
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Old May 21, 2003, 10:53 PM   #3
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Theoretically possible but I doubt it happens with Apple's current pricing structure. Simply not possible.

Apple will have to cease crippling so-called consumer machines, like, now. Budget PCs are entering a new realm of performance. 1 in 4 purchasers just aren't that dumb.
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Old May 21, 2003, 11:11 PM   #4
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It's not that easy to gain 20% of the market from a company with $40,000,000,000 in the bank. Microsoft has already shown just how competitive they are willing to be if you consider the enourmas discounts they give to deter large customers from using linux--an OS that I think, has much more to gain from M$'s new plot for world domination than Apple does, with their high prices.
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Old May 21, 2003, 11:30 PM   #5
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perhaps but unprobable i think
i think it ll be around 10 % or so
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Old May 22, 2003, 01:45 AM   #6
VoodooDaddy
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Re: Looking 3-5 years down the road.. I see Apple with a 25%+ market share..

Quote:
Originally posted by Mineral
Anyone else agree?

This whole delay for Longhorn..

The Palladium 1984-ish features of Windows coming soon..

Macs are about to get REALLY fast..

Probably will see two MAJOR OSX updates before Longhorn..

Apple Music Store..

Incredible Notebook sales..



I dunno.. what do you guys think? What could be the "nail in the coffin" for M$'s monopoly?

Personally, I don't care if millions are stupid and ignorant enough to primarily use PC's with Windows.. but eventually the word will get out.

I'd like to see the 80's again.. Apple domination.
Longhorn delay?? Since when?? All I've read is we are looking at late 04, early 05 release which is right on schedule.

The Palladium security stuff will NEVER happen. The RIAA has a hell of a time passing any copyright protection for music, you really think the government will allow M$ to police our computers?

PCs will continue to outpace Mac on the clock.

2 OS X updates? Oh you mean service packs. XP service pack 2 will be out soon, if not already in beta.

Apple Music store?? One word for that, mIRC.

Notebooks?? Ok, the notebooks are very nice but pricey.

Final nail in the coffin?? They have to be in a coffin first.

Personally I don't care if hundreds are stupid and ignorant enough to primarily use Macs.

Apple didn't dominate the 80's, Commodore did.



J/k Its all in fun.
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Old May 22, 2003, 02:10 AM   #7
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Re: Looking 3-5 years down the road.. I see Apple with a 25%+ market share..

you know what, I see apple at the same market-share (or installed base or whatever you want to measure it...), like right now...

people will accept palladium like they always accepted anything microsoft released... nothing will change

Apple computers will stil be too expensive to be an alternative for windowze users...

and linux will instead gain market share...

I might be completly wrong however...

I personally believe that all this 970 talk is just a hoax and apple will be stuck with motorola's G4's for ever (hey, they could at least use high speed G3s from IBM...)

JUST MY TWO (EURO-) CENTS...

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Old May 22, 2003, 03:11 AM   #8
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Re: Re: Looking 3-5 years down the road.. I see Apple with a 25%+ market share..

Quote:
Originally posted by vollspacken
I personally believe that all this 970 talk is just a hoax and apple will be stuck with motorola's G4's for ever

vSpacken

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Anything but that!!!!!
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Old May 22, 2003, 03:47 AM   #9
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i was just thinkin that 1984 superbowl tvc would be good to put on high rotation for a few months when the next gen mac appears. it's retro but could give the people lookin at the arrival of longhorn/palladium the heebee jeebees. lot of people haven't seen it. that tvc could push the % of macs up.
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Old May 22, 2003, 06:08 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by 748s
i was just thinkin that 1984 superbowl tvc would be good to put on high rotation for a few months when the next gen mac appears. it's retro but could give the people lookin at the arrival of longhorn/palladium the heebee jeebees. lot of people haven't seen it. that tvc could push the % of macs up.
I don't think so...

The 1984 ad was aimed at attacking IBM (all the suits were basically wearing IBM's standard business uniform). Use the 1984 ad to promote IBM's 970 chip, which could turn out to be Apple's savior? No - I don't think so.

How times change...
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Old May 22, 2003, 06:26 AM   #11
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Contrary to your predictions...

...I instead see Apple gone in 3 to 5 years. Well, maybe not that soon, but in 10 years it might all be over and the battle lost. Would hate to see that happen, but I don't think it's that unlikely to happen. Besides, 2000 is pretty decent; maybe Longhorn actually will be an excellent OS. Who knows?! I don't, you don't; nobody knows right now. I'm willing to try something new. If it works and can give me just as much fun as my iMac is giving me now, it's good.

Okay, come on people, now go and flame me.



No, seriously though, I really can see Apple's market share decimilised to around 1% or something like that in about 5 years.
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Old May 22, 2003, 07:38 AM   #12
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The only way Apple can get that kind of market share is to let Mac OS be installed on Intel/AMD hardware not built by Apple, therefore allowing people to buy Macs cheaply. Most people in the world can't afford $2000 for a new computer every 2 years so with Apples current prices they cant go beyond about 8% of the market.
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Old May 22, 2003, 07:49 AM   #13
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i do not see this happening, i see roughly 10 if anything, but i doubt that too.

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Old May 22, 2003, 07:51 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by hvfsl
The only way Apple can get that kind of market share is to let Mac OS be installed on Intel/AMD hardware not built by Apple, therefore allowing people to buy Macs cheaply. Most people in the world can't afford $2000 for a new computer every 2 years so with Apples current prices they cant go beyond about 8% of the market.
now here is an idea I can get behind. Ive posed this question several times to different ppl and the response was:

"well it Mac os runs so good because it runs on proprietary hardware whereas Windows has to run on thousands of configurations."

Well, get out a Mac os that can run on pc hardware and surely it will be as good as Windows wont it???
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Old May 22, 2003, 08:45 AM   #15
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No, and here's why:

The biggest market for computers is business.

Apple will not be adopted for mainstream businesses because in order to do this, businesses would have to rely on a single, expensive vendor to provide their computing platform who has pretty much ZERO reputation with business except some niche markets. Without that, no way they will even approach 10%. I would be surprised if they can pass 5%. I think Dell has just shy of 20%, and they are the biggest PC seller in the world.

Now before everyone gets in a snot, remember that 5% of the market is HUGE! That means that 1 Mac is sold for every 4-5 Dell computers. Very impressive. At 25% it is like 1 to 1. Bwaa haa haa haa.... not going to happen.

I recommend Apple to many people at work as a computer that just works, but many of them still end up buying an x86 device because it's easier to find, cheaper, there's more choice, and they are used to it from work.

I must admit, I would have NEVER considered buying a Mac before OSX, (ok well, I used to run PPC Linux before OSX, but I knew it was coming) but then I'm a *Nix guy.

Apple's future is looking bright, but I think it is a question of can Apple maintain a slice of the pie, or is it going away, rather than expand it's PC market 5 fold. If Apple will increase profit and revenue it will probably be from things like the iPod, Music store, and software, than their core PC business.

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Old May 22, 2003, 09:30 AM   #16
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First, anything can happen or

To gain market share, Apple & IBM need to keep cranking up the hardware. Get and keep ahead of the x86 world. Improve support for multiple processors. Don't restrict the licensing with multiple processors.
And ... this may sound a little strange, but Apple needs to support (superficially at least) Windows. If Apple wants to push Cocoa as the main development method, developers need to be able to port to Windows. Write app for OS X, some windows support a given.

To gain market share you need (at least) three things: good OS, good hardware, good apps.

I'm from the Windows and *nix world. In my opinion, *nix for the desktop IS OS X.
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Old May 22, 2003, 09:39 AM   #17
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Coming from a physics graduate school... Apple can do really well in the "higher" higher education (i.e. graduate level) in the future. A lot of scientists who are used to using Linux/Unix will look at OS X as a very viable option, especially for notebooks. Instead of having a dual boot Linux/Win notebook, they can just get a Mac. (Linux for work, Win for presentations.)

It may not increase the marketshare much, but it's definitely a market.
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Old May 22, 2003, 10:29 AM   #18
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what's amazing is that if each one of us took it upon ourselves to convince a person we know who doesn't use a mac to buy one, we could effectively double apple's marketshare.

call it proselytizing if you must.

but maybe there's a certain amount of responsibility on us to help people see the advantage of using a mac.
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Old May 22, 2003, 10:44 AM   #19
Bengt77
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Thumbs up Switch the switchers...

Quote:
Originally posted by gernb
what's amazing is that if each one of us took it upon ourselves to convince a person we know who doesn't use a mac to buy one, we could effectively double apple's marketshare.
I've actually done that several times. Well, to be exact, twice. That's not exactly several, but still.

Dussss...

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Old May 22, 2003, 12:00 PM   #20
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Not even close.

This is just wishful thinking and won't happen, unless Steve decides to release "Marklar" - x86 OSX. That won't happen unless Apple plunges into dire financial need and loses their market niche.

Apple is a luxury that has both style and substance to back it up. If you're willing to pay extra $1000 dollars for your notebook, it's for a reason. Apple is not for everyone. Stop trying to imagine a world where every person would use Macs. If Apple had a 30% market share, I can guarantee you that OSX would be just as frustrating as Windows, loaded with all kinds of useless stuff to enable wide array of devices and applications to work on it.

Macs are intended for the following groups:

a) Rich or sophisticated users
b) Computer users who want to get work done and skip the drama
c) People who do not enjoy slavery and bondage
d) Grown-ups who do not wish to babysit their computer and treat it as their retarded stepchild.


I have no issue with Apple having less than 3%. As long as the corporation makes money and keeps inovating at the current pace, Microsoft could keep it's 90% figure.

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Old May 22, 2003, 12:04 PM   #21
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Cool

My best friend uses a PC running WinXP and it crashes on him like every 15 minutes.. and all he's doing is surfing the net and talking on AIM. It's such a POS that he hates PC's with a passion now, and is planning to get a Mac for graduation soon, just because he sees how amazing mine is. So.. there's ONE convert
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Old May 22, 2003, 12:19 PM   #22
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Hey, i'm about to convert, and would have earlier if i didn't stop in here to get the latest information and speculation. Now, like us all, i'm just waiting to see what happens at WWDC. If nothing happens point me to the pbooks and i'll be a mac convert.
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Old May 22, 2003, 12:47 PM   #23
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Well if Apple wont release Mac OS for X86, they can at least lower the prices of Macs or do what M$ does, get lots of money from one division (windows) and use that money to sell something at a lose so everyone will buy it (Xbox).
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Old May 22, 2003, 01:29 PM   #24
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Re: Re: Looking 3-5 years down the road.. I see Apple with a 25%+ market share..

Quote:
Originally posted by VoodooDaddy
Apple didn't dominate the 80's, Commodore did.
Oh, I hope you were kidding... I knew like one Dude with a Commodore Vic 20. Hell, I knew more people with Odessey.

Apple at 25%? I wish it were so, but I don't see it happening. On advantage is that the increase in production might lead to lower hardware prices. It might just as easily lead to lower quality control, too.

Keep in mind, MS doesn't make PC's. They can sell office to all of us, too. They own virtual PC now, so they can even keep selling us windows itself. They sell us mice and games as well. If the market begins shifting towards mac, MS will simply shift its focus accordingly. Now whether or not more attention given to mac's by Redmond is a good thing or not...


I've said it before and I'll say it again, Apple needs to increase it's public awareness. Most people jsut don't think of Apple when they consider a new machine. Apple needs to tell that 1) they still exist, 2) whatever you want to do on that PC, you can probably do on a Mac, 3) they're are a number of useful things that can be done on Mac much more easily than on a PC and 4) mac's are easy and reliable. If that means buyer more ad time than 1-800-Call-ATT or 10-10-321 so be it. Spend money to make money.

That being said, I don't think Apple will disappear in the next five years either - they do make money in a market where few are making money.
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Old May 22, 2003, 03:19 PM   #25
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Heck yes!!

... oh wait, I thougth you said 2.5%.

Apple will be lucky to climb to 5%. What they really need to do is quit thinking of themselves as a computer manufacturer and more as an appliance manufacturer.

Don't get hung up on the numbers, just run a good business and make good products. People will own Macs along with PCs because they are better at different things...

- j
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