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Old Jul 2, 2013, 04:12 AM   #26
Shaun, UK
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Should be interesting. Given that we've had nothing new to boost sales in that quarter I don't expect the numbers to be that good as many people wait for the next generation iPhones and iPads. A significant fall in the percentage revenue growth could well be on the cards.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 06:08 AM   #27
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Those lucky shareholders...
i'm in it for the dividends, not the numbers. i made plenty on the numbers in the past 8 years but those days seem to be over. they started paying out dividends just in time.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 07:18 AM   #28
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Prediction. Record sales and profits. Again. Bleak forecast by Wall Street.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 07:33 AM   #29
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I don't think they've done very well this quarter but who knows.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 08:49 AM   #30
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Then bet on it, if you're so sure.
Probably not a bad idea to short AAPL, but it's not going to go down enough to make a significant amount on it.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 08:59 AM   #31
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Not this again

They'll report record revenue, amazing profit, and the media will say they're doomed lol. Wash rinse repeat in three months.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 09:55 AM   #32
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AAPL up over 3% yesterday and 2% so far today. Some in the media attributing it to the iWatch trademark filings. Could that really drive up the stock 5% in 2 days?
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 11:41 AM   #33
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I can't answer for him. It's a logical question now, but no-one then was privileged to what was to happen next. The stock market is unpredictable for even the most knowledgeable of experts. Too many uncontrollable variables. A nuclear disaster, recurring tornadoes, tsunamis with massive flooding, gas plant explosions, civil uprising in the third world (some of whom control part of our energy supply), all could send the market in a tailspin faster than you can yell "SELL OFF". Of course no need to point out that the first three of the above scenarios have actually played out in the last few years.
true story. hindsight analysis with all the "what ifs" is the worst. sure, if it was known that the stock would tumble to below 400, then obvi selling at 600 would have been smrt...
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 12:03 PM   #34
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I for one am looking forward to this one. Interested to see how Apple has done this quarter!
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 12:20 PM   #35
TallManNY
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AAPL up over 3% yesterday and 2% so far today. Some in the media attributing it to the iWatch trademark filings. Could that really drive up the stock 5% in 2 days?
Yes, but mainly because Apple has a base of currently trading at only 10 times earnings, or about 7 times earning "ex-cash". Any good news should pop this stock since the stock price basically has "bad" news built into it.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 12:27 PM   #36
Shaun, UK
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AAPL up over 3% yesterday and 2% so far today. Some in the media attributing it to the iWatch trademark filings. Could that really drive up the stock 5% in 2 days?
It's more likely that the speculators on Wall Street have a buy trigger at around $400 so when the stock goes below that they all pile in and buy. That drives the share price up until they all decide to take their profits and sell at which point the price starts to fall back down again.

The important announcement is the iPhone and iPad sales number at their earnings call in a few weeks.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 12:34 PM   #37
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Was going to make a smart-ass "Quarter 3?" post. Then, I saw "fiscal quarter" and felt slightly ashamed.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 05:16 PM   #38
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Yes, but mainly because Apple has a base of currently trading at only 10 times earnings, or about 7 times earning "ex-cash". Any good news should pop this stock since the stock price basically has "bad" news built into it.
Yeah, at some point the markets will decide that Apple isn't smelting pig iron, but they have to demonstrate that something new is coming that can drive earnings growth again. Figured to be a long, dull summer for AAPL investors.
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Old Jul 2, 2013, 07:18 PM   #39
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With virtually no new products in the entire first half of 2013, don't hold your breath for amazing results. Wall Street will cause the stock to tank again.
Maybe not. The analysts are fully aware of the fact that Apple hasn't had a major product release this year and have factored that in to their forecasts already. They're looking for how the current iOS devices have been selling in the midst of so many major Android releases and what Apple projects they will do over the next quarter.
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Old Jul 3, 2013, 01:41 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Jimmy James View Post
Prediction. Record sales and profits. Again. Bleak forecast by Wall Street.
Highly unlikely, they have VERY tough compares and a very long period with very few new products.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post
It's more likely that the speculators on Wall Street have a buy trigger at around $400 so when the stock goes below that they all pile in and buy. That drives the share price up until they all decide to take their profits and sell at which point the price starts to fall back down again.

The important announcement is the iPhone and iPad sales number at their earnings call in a few weeks.
Just as likely to be Apple itself buying scads of stock at the low levels. They have literally billions of dollars they've committed to stock buybacks and I hope they are putting it to good use while the stock is cheap.
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Old Jul 5, 2013, 08:45 AM   #41
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Yeah, at some point the markets will decide that Apple isn't smelting pig iron, but they have to demonstrate that something new is coming that can drive earnings growth again. Figured to be a long, dull summer for AAPL investors.
Does it have to be something new? I mean if the tablet market continues to grow at its current rate and Apple maintains its market share, then wouldn't that be enough? Tablet's grew 78% YoY in 2012. If they grow 50% YoY in 2013 and 35% YoY in 2014, then Apple doesn't need something new. That's assuming it can basically maintain its market share and margins. But at that point the tablet division is kicking out $20 billion in profit a year. And there still may be market growth to come. Cook continually states it very blunty: he believes tablets will exceed PCs in sales. I think tablets will exceed smartphone sales since I believe one only needs one smartphone but one would ideally have three or four tablets of various sizes (one for work, one for home and long trips, a mid-sized one for short term travel, and an E-Ink for reading outside/beach/camping/always easy to find sitting bedside).

I think the assumption by the market is that iPhone sales are going to be down YoY this year. That seems a very unlikely thing. But that is the only way to justify such a low stock price. This stock price doesn't make sense if Apple is heading toward another $40 billion in profit this year.
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Old Jul 5, 2013, 09:09 AM   #42
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OT but Samsung Electronics was down 3.8% today because the quarterly estimates they released didn't meet analysts expectations. Stock down over 15% in the last month or so. I wonder if that portends saturation in the smartphone market or perhaps people tiring of the Samsung brand a bit? Or maybe smartphones are getting so good where people don't feel the need to upgrade every time a new one comes out?
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Old Jul 5, 2013, 10:27 AM   #43
TallManNY
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OT but Samsung Electronics was down 3.8% today because the quarterly estimates they released didn't meet analysts expectations. Stock down over 15% in the last month or so. I wonder if that portends saturation in the smartphone market or perhaps people tiring of the Samsung brand a bit? Or maybe smartphones are getting so good where people don't feel the need to upgrade every time a new one comes out?
I think very few people were buying a new smartphone yearly as most were an every two year device. But yes I suspect that there are many iPhone 4 users out there that did not find the 5 compelling. Certainly only the well to do would consider spending $600 to go from a GS3 to a GS4.

The question for the phone makers is if phones are going to go to the "I upgrade when I break my phone" cycle that is pretty much where a lot of the PC market is. In other words, we could be seeing non-techy folks running with four year old smartphones.
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Old Jul 5, 2013, 11:54 AM   #44
IJ Reilly
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Originally Posted by TallManNY View Post
Does it have to be something new? I mean if the tablet market continues to grow at its current rate and Apple maintains its market share, then wouldn't that be enough? Tablet's grew 78% YoY in 2012. If they grow 50% YoY in 2013 and 35% YoY in 2014, then Apple doesn't need something new. That's assuming it can basically maintain its market share and margins. But at that point the tablet division is kicking out $20 billion in profit a year. And there still may be market growth to come. Cook continually states it very blunty: he believes tablets will exceed PCs in sales. I think tablets will exceed smartphone sales since I believe one only needs one smartphone but one would ideally have three or four tablets of various sizes (one for work, one for home and long trips, a mid-sized one for short term travel, and an E-Ink for reading outside/beach/camping/always easy to find sitting bedside).

I think the assumption by the market is that iPhone sales are going to be down YoY this year. That seems a very unlikely thing. But that is the only way to justify such a low stock price. This stock price doesn't make sense if Apple is heading toward another $40 billion in profit this year.
It probably doesn't have to be, but it sure helps. Looking back historically, the drivers of Apple's growth has been opening up new markets. It's always easier to move the needle that way than to expand or attempt to capture a larger share of an existing market. Also, consumer electronics is a very fickle market. Somebody is always trying to swipe the mantle of coolness. For whatever we Apple fans might think, Samsung has done a scary-good job of convincing a lot of consumers that they make cooler products than Apple. Altering that dynamic requires making a splash, which you don't get from releasing new iterations of old stuff. I think Apple has what it takes, but they are just being uncharacteristically slow at it. I would not be an AAPL investor if I didn't think that in 6-12 months a lot consumers would be asking themselves why they ever thought Samsung made cooler products.
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