Depends on the variables
It really depends on how much data you use.
I paid $765 with tax for my Galaxy Note 2, instead of $340-ish. So that's $425-ish more than the subsidized price that would have forced me onto the capped plan.
I currently pay $30/mo for unlimited data. On the new plan it would have been $50/mo for 5 GB. That's $20/mo more for 24 months, or $480.00 Right there I've already come out ahead. But I actually use more like 10GB/month; at $10 more per gig, that's another $50/month on top of the first $50. So, $100/month times 24 months of contract time, that would be $2,400 in data charges (of course I wouldn't pay that, I would just be severely crippled in my usage habits).
In my case, it is far cheaper to cough up $425 more greenbacks up front and continue to use my unlimited data just like Big Red and I agreed that I could back when I signed up. Even if I subscribe to the theory that Verizon will dump me like an ugly prom date the second my contract expires at the end of next year, I am still ahead; I'm not under contract for two years at $100/month to use data like I am in the habit of doing, or $50/month to use it with shackles as I would have to do. I am getting my unlimited data still for $30/month for the next year. If they drop me then I will have gotten my money's worth, and I will sell my beautiful Note 2 and buy its inevitable next generation on the Sprint network if they are still offering unlimited data at that time.
Basically the argument only matters to people like me who use a ton of data, and if you do, paying cash is worth it in the long run. I am getting blazing-fast 4G data everywhere in town; I'm probably going to use more, not less, while it lasts. And when the party's over, okay. It's over. I'll find something else to amuse me.
I don't understand the contention that buying at the unsubsidized rate is a workable solution here. If you buy the phone unsubsidized, you still have to pay the same plan rates that pay the carrier back (and then some) for the subsidy, so... a ~$500 premium just to keep your unlimited plan? How does that constitute the best deal for even the top data users?
Is there something wrong with my math?
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thanks for the heads up! i just started a new job, so i had to wait until tomorrow to get the bew phone.
as i stated, im in the same boat. i generally hit over 5gb without streaming anything or being jailbroken and tethering. im sure dropbox and updating my ap mobile and email constantly dont help. although, this month im way low...only 4gb.
as far as i know, the verizon iphones dont use sims at all.
Actually, the Verizon iPhones 4s and 5 do have sim cards; the 4s has a sim card for international use (look carefully; there's a slot for it on the side) and the 5 has a sim card for 4g LTE use. I think they lock it so you can't change the sim card (I heard something like that), but they do have them.