IDC Predicts Android Tablet Shipments Will Overtake iPad Shipments in 2013

[gnasher729]

Originally Posted by Ryth

Yep, my friends kids have 2 android tablets they got for xmas. They sit around collecting dust while the kids try to grab their parents iPhones.

Good news for people who _love_ to see good sale numbers for Android is that all these dust collecting Android tablets count as sales, and make Apple's market share drop.

People who are more realistic, or Apple fans, or both, realise that these sales don't affect Apple's iPad sales at all. If Apple sells a million iPads, it doesn't matter to Apple how many cheap non-iPad tablets are sold at the same time.

And software developers realise that people who paid for Apple's "overpriced junk" as some people love to call it, and who use it many hours a day, will also spend some money on software, while the owner of a cheap Android tablet that hasn't been charged for months isn't going to buy anything.

[iapplelove]

Originally Posted by Hyper-X

I say the same thing about iPads, haven't used one that I liked. All are disappointing and extremely boring (and limiting) to use.

First if you don't like one iPad then you won't like any,so there's no point in trying multiple. Second, what are you expecting from a tablet? Guess my needs and expectations are different than yours but I really wouldn't change a thing. When I need a full computer I go to my Mac

[dannyhex]

speculation at its finest, pure speculation.

[Meandmunch]

Measurements like this don't mean anything. There are over 4,000 unique mobile devices running Android and like 20 devices running iOS.

Ever see the movie 300?

[chrf097]

Originally Posted by AppleScruff1

How about Jelly Bean?

Jelly Bean is a great OS....for phones.

Android just shouldn't be on tablets. It's not functional. A majority of apps are literally just stretched versions of their phone counterparts. Not only that, smaller 7 and 8 inch tablets can't even support the tablet versions of apps. There's ~800,000 apps in the Android app store, and ~3,000 are actually tablet optimized last time I checked. Let's compare that to iOS, which also has ~800,000 apps, yet this time we have ~300,000 apps optimized for tablets. Not to mention most of those are universal. If you download a game for example, you absolutely know it'll run on your iPad, your iPhone, your sister's iPod touch, your dad's iPad, etc., but with Android, it's a guessing game on who will run what because it's so horribly fragmented. For example, Need for Speed Most Wanted runs near flawless on my iPhone 4S, my mom's iPad 3, and my friend's iPod touch 5. However, the same app but on Android was a different story. It would run on my other friend's Samsung Galaxy S3, but it wasn't even available for download on my Nexus 7, and when I went to force the app on, I could see why (it ran like garbage).

Don't think I'm saying Android is bad. It's good (not the best, but it's not bad) on phones, but just garbage on tablets.

Originally Posted by dba415

If you think Android is horrible on tablets, then you have to think that iOS is even worse on the iPad as well surely.

The homescreen, which is just a grid of icons, on a large screen looks disastrous. Absolutely horrible.

No not at all. The point is not to see how much garbage and crap I can shove on my home screen (a la widgets), or how many useless and unnecessary features I can throw in, I want to use APPS. You can put features that sound cool like "Face unlock" (which was cool for about 15 minutes but then I turned it off because it was much faster to just type my password in), or widgets (which I end up just taking off anyways because it starts to get messy), but if you have horrible app support, it's a horrible platform.

Let's take a look at Twitter for Android shall we, running on a tablet:



Now let's look at Twitter for iOS, on an iPad:



APPS. THE POINT IS ABOUT THE APPS. Also, I don't think the grid layout is horrible at all. It makes the point extremely simple and does exactly what it should do: get me to my apps that I want and fast. In fact the only ugly thing about the iPad IMO is the notification center.

Originally Posted by i.mac

Ice cream is horrible for the body, yet the masses consume it indiscriminately.

Which is why the iPad dominates over Android tablets in web market and sales, right?

[AppleScruff1]

Originally Posted by chrf097

Jelly Bean is a great OS....for phones.

Android just shouldn't be on tablets. It's not functional. A majority of apps are literally just stretched versions of their phone counterparts. Not only that, smaller 7 and 8 inch tablets can't even support the tablet versions of apps. There's ~800,000 apps in the Android app store, and ~3,000 are actually tablet optimized last time I checked. Let's compare that to iOS, which also has ~800,000 apps, yet this time we have ~300,000 apps optimized for tablets. Not to mention most of those are universal. If you download a game for example, you absolutely know it'll run on your iPad, your iPhone, your sister's iPod touch, your dad's iPad, etc., but with Android, it's a guessing game on who will run what because it's so horribly fragmented. For example, Need for Speed Most Wanted runs near flawless on my iPhone 4S, my mom's iPad 3, and my friend's iPod touch 5. However, the same app but on Android was a different story. It would run on my other friend's Samsung Galaxy S3, but it wasn't even available for download on my Nexus 7, and when I went to force the app on, I could see why (it ran like garbage).

Don't think I'm saying Android is bad. It's good (not the best, but it's not bad) on phones, but just garbage on tablets.

Thanks for the informative reply. I have only played with Android on tablets a few times. I just remember reading that when the Nexus 7 came out with Jelly Bean it was supposed to be the best Android tablet to date. The fragmentation is a big problem and that gives iOS a huge advantage. If a platform doesn't have the apps that the people want or they don't perform properly, it is a big negative no matter how good the operating system is. Web OS comes to mind here, but I have zero experience with it. And this may be what does in Windows RT along with the confusion with two versions of Windows.

What do you think of the new Windows on phones?

[TallManNY]

Originally Posted by nia820

Love android phones but their tablets do suck.

Hate apple phones. Love their tablets though.

why are apple sheep and android drones so obsessed with numbers? like seriously i never got it. none of us are benefiting from the sales.

Not true. Nexus 7, which I have, is fine. Is it as good as the iPad Mini, probably not. But it is darn close. Now if Mini was retina, then I'd say no contest.

But no, the tablets don't all suck.

[aristotle]

This sounds familiar. I think I heard the same thing in 2011 and 2012.

Is this the new "year of linux on the desktop"?
@chrf097: Great point about how tablet apps on Android are mostly just stretched Android Phone apps. They really don't have the same level of built in support for tablet interfaces in their API like the iOS SDK.

Android tablets feel unfinished because of this.

[jsw]

Originally Posted by Bluefusion

This is SO remarkably shortsighted.

1) Rent movies and transfer them (including playback position) to other devices easily.
2) Not break when thrown on ground.
3) Get me through two or more days of usage.
4) Wirelessly backup my user and app data every day.
5) Run my iOS apps (which I think someone already said, but it's worth mentioning again)
6) Be counted on to NEVER hang, freeze, slow down or do anything stupid. Be efficient and effortless at all times and in all conditions of use.
7) Be upgradable to the newest OS on the day it's announced.
8) Allow me to text my friends for free without additional software or setup.
9) Allow me to listen to my voicemail messages out of order and in an organized way.

...Should I continue?

You and I clearly have very different iDevice experiences.

I have an iPhone and a Nexus 4. I'll grant you Messages and iTunes movie integration, although movies on the Nexus 4 look a hell of a lot better than movies on the 4S (or my wife's 5). Voice mail is nice but irrelevant to me, as I get maybe one voice mail every few months.

I'll add another iPhone 5 plus: lightning. That is a far better adapter than micro USB, albeit more expensive.

However, iPhones do break when dropped and absolutely "when thrown on the ground." iPhones don't usually last most people two or more days - and the people it lasts that for would get that out of a decent Android phone. iOS apps don't appeal to me over Play equivalents. iCloud backups are nice but have failed me often enough and also don't tend to notify me of an issue until days or weeks after the last backup - and I can wirelessly back up my N4 as well. The N4 gets updates the day they are released. And iDevices never hang, freeze, etc? Totally not my iDevice experience, at all.

If you've actually used both iOS and Android devices - and used flagship models of each - then you'd realize the differences aren't as you say. They are equivalent, and it really is a matter of preference.

----------

Originally Posted by TallManNY

Not true. Nexus 7, which I have, is fine. Is it as good as the iPad Mini, probably not. But it is darn close. Now if Mini was retina, then I'd say no contest.

But no, the tablets don't all suck.

Agreed.

The $299 32GB cellular-enabled Nexus 7 that I have, which is still cheaper than the base iPad mini and vastly cheaper than a 32GB cellular-enabled mini, has an inferior camera (and only one). Other than that, it is, in virtually every way, equal to or better than the iPad mini my wife has - easier and more comfortable to hold, better screen, etc.

Likewise, a $200 base Nexus 7 is far more than 5/8 as good as a $320 base iPad mini. Once the $320 mini has Retina, then it will be far more attractive as a purchase. For now? Not so much.

A year or so ago, there was no contest. Apple won. Now? I don't think so. I think, now, it's a big premium in cost for very little real value, and the App Store just isn't as dominant over Play as it used to be - and the gap is narrowing.

The mini was Apple's concession to reality. I want them to make it appeal to me - I know they can, but it's not worth $120 more to me now.

[PracticalMac]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

How many YEARS? The tablet market was only 2.5 years old when the iPad mini was released.

I started saying not long after iPad 2 came out, well before iPad 3.
So if fractions count, then yearS

[vampyren]

Originally Posted by Simmenfl

Yeah certainly able to predict the year 2017... thats just like 3 years and 9 months from now.

3 years and 9 months ago, the Tablet industry didnt even exist. Predicting what the tech market will be like in such a huge timeframe is ridiculous stupid.

totally agree, also now with ipad mini around and the ipad mini HD coming i seriously doubt android tablets will be all that successful. I have also iphone5 and Galaxy S3 LTE and can see that Android phones are pretty great in phone area but on tablet side i think iPad is dominating on many fronts. Android tablets just are not as good as ipad , cant put my finger on why exactly. I mean the build quality, the whole application integration and these things on one side but when i test them side by side i dont get the same genuine feeling with Android tablet. On phone side i am actually moving more to my Galaxy S3 and loving it

[SockRolid]

Originally Posted by Glideslope

Bring back The Clones!!!!!!!!

LOL. I bet 2/3 of those Android "activations" will be no-name whitebox Chinese e-waste.

In 5 years or so, "Android" will have been permanently fragmented and forked:

Samsung fork: The de-facto standard, because of Samsung's dominant share of the Android market. Samsung will spend a few years optimizing their proprietary fork of some down-rev release of Android for their own hardware. Something they wouldn't want to waste their time doing to the yearly generic Android release.

The "Samsung fork" of Android will tide Samsung over as they work on Tizen, which may or may not replace Android as their mobile OS. Either way, Google's profit layer will be stripped out (Google Play, all those mobile ads obviously, and possibly the spyware as well.) Thus all those Samsung activations will mean zero revenue for Google. But that won't stop Google from touting the numbers.

Amazon fork: Same as it ever was and ever will be. Frozen in time like a fly trapped in prehistoric amber. No need to try to migrate their users to anything beyond their proprietary fork of Android 2.3 "Gingerbread," circa 2010.

Works just fine for Amazon's at-home retail point-of-sale devices they call Kindles. Why spend any time at all updating the OS when their customers would never notice it anyway?

Motorola fork: Google will be desperate to make back something, anything, of the $12.5 billion they dumped into their Motorola Money Pit (tm). That's roughly 1.5 years of profits down the drain, by the way.

So Motorola will need to differentiate themselves from Samsung in an attempt to crawl out of the "other" slice of the Android market share pie. And that means keeping new features and optimizations to themselves and their Motorola hardware branch before releasing the source to their (remaining) hardware partners. (Of course, Samsung won't care about any tweaks that Google gives only to Motorola because they have their own dominant fork of Android anyway.)

Come to think of it, maybe this is why Andy Rubin stepped down and/or was forced into a "lateral promotion." Maybe he still thought that Android should be given to all of Google's hardware partners as-is. Including Motorola. And maybe Google's top brass thought that Motorola desperately needed special treatment. You know, to help recoup that massive investment. The patent portfolio angle certainly didn't justify the expense.

The generics: Send in the clowns, er, clones. Android is "free." (Ask Rubin for that git URL if you're interested. I'm sure he still remembers it.) That means any unscrupulous hardware maker out for a quick buck will mash up quick-and-dirty iPhone and iPad copies running Android. Just to sell counterfeit iPhones and iPads to gullible consumers who either haven't learned how to spell "iPhone" and "iPad" yet or are so blinded by low pricing that they just can't help themselves.

And, as we've seen, Google can't or won't do anything about "the generics." Don't care. Can't be bothered. Not their fault if consumers get junky copies-of-copies. And anyway, the bottom feeder consumers wouldn't pay for a name-brand Android device (just Samsung 5 years from now). So Google isn't leaving any revenue on the table. And revenue is what it's all about. $12.5 billion in the hole and counting.

There you have it. Your mileage may vary.

[MikeAK]

Originally Posted by Michael Scrip

Samsung recently had a great quarter selling 63 million smartphones.

However... only 15 million of them were the Galaxy SIII and a few million Galaxy Notes.

In other words... only about 1/3 of Samsung smartphones are high-end... leaving 2/3 as "cheapies"

It's possible you're seeing more Samsung Android phones depending on where you live... but statistically they're not all high-end phones.

Now for my piece of anecdotal evidence:

I was at a dance convention this past weekend in Tennessee with folks from all over the South East. Kids of all ages and parents too were in attendance.

There were iPhones everywhere. Even the instructors used their iPhones to play music in their classes instead of using CDs... not Samsung phones.

In fact... I didn't see any high-end Samsung phones at all.

Of course... YMMV

I agree and acknowledged that Apple still makes a quality product. I never said people aren't using them. My point is that Android devices, over the past 2 years, have matured a great deal and are now a valid alternative to Apple. People are buying them and a lot of people are choosing Android over iOS.. The days of only seeing cheapie free Android phones is over. It use to be that anyone who was willing to pay for a phone would only look at an iPhone. Not the case at all anymore.

I guess I worded it wrong in my original post. I see way more of the newest Android phones over the newer iPhone. I would like to know how many of those iPhone's you are seeing are of the actual iPhone 5. Location does play a role in what products are seen but I see so many more S3's and very little of the iPhone 5's. People are more impressed with what Android is offering and don't really have too much to say about Apple. This is a huge swing from not too long ago when everyone was talking about Apple.

Times are changing and Apple better wake up. The Tablet market is following the path that cell phones took. The writing has been on the wall for over a year. Most impartial people on these forums see it. Only the stubborn fanboys refuse to see the truth.

[Michael Scrip]

Originally Posted by MikeAK

I agree and acknowledged that Apple still makes a quality product. I never said people aren't using them. My point is that Android devices, over the past 2 years, have matured a great deal and are now a valid alternative to Apple. People are buying them and a lot of people are choosing Android over iOS.. The days of only seeing cheapie free Android phones is over. It use to be that anyone who was willing to pay for a phone would only look at an iPhone. Not the case at all anymore.

I guess I worded it wrong in my original post. I see way more of the newest Android phones over the newer iPhone. I would like to know how many of those iPhone's you are seeing are of the actual iPhone 5. Location does play a role in what products are seen but I see so many more S3's and very little of the iPhone 5's. People are more impressed with what Android is offering and don't really have too much to say about Apple. This is a huge swing from not too long ago when everyone was talking about Apple.

No doubt there are great Android phones... and I absolutely realize Android is a mature OS and platform.

However... not all Android phones are superstar phones or behave like flagship phones.

Take India for example. Over a billion people... and you can get an Android phone there for $150. But the cheapest iPhone in India is $480.

With all those people... and at those price points... are people really choosing Android? Some maybe... but mostly not.

Most of Android's colossal market share is the result of inexpensive phones. People around the world are looking for a smartphone they can afford... and the phone they select just happens to be running Android.

If all Android phones started at $450... it might paint a different picture of "choice"

Originally Posted by MikeAK

Times are changing and Apple better wake up. The Tablet market is following the path that cell phones took. The writing has been on the wall for over a year. Most impartial people on these forums see it. Only the stubborn fanboys refuse to see the truth.

So what happened when Android phones overtook the iPhone? It's been 2 years since that happened... and now Android smartphones have roughly 3.5 times the market share of the iPhone.

But I'm not seeing any negative results of that. People still buy the iPhone as fast as they can be produced... even if it costs 4 times more than an Android phone. Developers still make apps for iOS... because it makes them money. Accessory makers still make stuff for Apple products. And customer satisfaction is still high for Apple products.

When Android tablets eventually pass the iPad... it will be a great headline... but Apple will still do what they do.

[NewAnger]

Originally Posted by Michael Scrip

When Android tablets eventually pass the iPad... it will be a great headline... but Apple will still do what they do.

They will and every time Phil gets up to make a statement about Android makes Apple look like they are scared.

[Bezetos]

Originally Posted by notabadname

Again, they compare a hardware maker to generally, a software maker. No singe manufacturer of Tablets is anywhere close to overtaking Apple's market position in Tablet sales. Why they continue to compare and place such value on all manufacturers of Android tablets versus a single manufacturer of Apple iOS Tablets is beyond me.

Why not? Seriously, why not? It's the people who make a huge deal out of it and try to defend and explain Apple that look silly.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by Bezetos

Why not? Seriously, why not?

My position isn't as extreme as the one you are quoting, but I can take a stab at a reasonable explanation.

Android isn't a unified platform. If the point of your comparison is for any reason other than "how bad are smartphones with an Android-based OS beating Apple in market share", then a more detailed view of the market would provide better information.

I recently did a very rough comparison between IDC Android shipment numbers and Google's Android activation numbers. Around 1 billion Android devices have shipped according to IDC. Google only claims 750 million activations to date. That means that around 25% of Android devices, as counted by IDC, do not use Google services.

That means they either:
1. Are never sold
2. Are never used as a smartphone
3. Don't use Google Play for apps (but do contribute to the main Android platform)
4. Are a forked version of Android

If you are looking to compare platforms, that's a significant number of devices that aren't accounted for!

[vampyren]

Originally Posted by Johnny JiveJobs

"So in your mind a Tablet is designed to fall? I wonder if you are using a Hummer H1 as your family car."

Using your analogy yes cars ARE DESIGNED FOR CRASHES even hummers.

So yes consumer electronics should be designed for everyday mishaps

we are not talking throwing it out a window on the 20th story, but one WOULD expect it to survive a fall of a few centimeters.

As I said Apple needs to improve the quality of some of its products.

You should have put it in a case. You cant possibly blame this on Apple. The problem is people like your sister dont value their gadgets, its not a piece of wood, its a huge screen. Its resistant for scratches not dropping, if your lucky and you drop it on the back it can for sure survive not otherwise, in which case you are the blame. Dont understand how people reason nowdays!

[Bezetos]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Around 1 billion Android devices have shipped according to IDC. Google only claims 750 million activations to date. That means that around 25% of Android devices, as counted by IDC, do not use Google services.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you might be comparing stats from two different dates. I remember hearing about 750 million activations around half a year ago, while the 1 billion stat is more recent.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by Bezetos

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you might be comparing stats from two different dates. I remember hearing about 750 million activations around half a year ago, while the 1 billion stat is more recent.

Google announced 750 million activations a couple days ago.
http://venturebeat.com/2013/03/13/75...d-activations/

[Bezetos]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Google announced 750 million activations a couple days ago.
http://venturebeat.com/2013/03/13/75...d-activations/

Hmm, sorry, I might have confused it with 500 million then.

[Bahroo]

gurantee you no single specific Android tablet will outsell the next iPad mini/iPad