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Old Apr 22, 2013, 09:00 AM   #551
alent1234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/exter...ce=yahoo_quote

Surprise, surprise right before earnings, hedge fund guy Doug Kass (a favorite of CNBC) tweets that he thinks Cook is "cooked". This is the same guy who, before Apple's shareholder meeting, tweeted that Apple would be announcing a stock split. When the stock jumped after his tweet he sold his shares for a profit and then tweeted that the split rumor was baseless.

I love the end of PED's column:



And people still claim Apple stock isn't being manipulated.
so the guy who built apple's manufacturing and distribution system needs to be fired?
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 09:11 AM   #552
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I think one of the more revealing things about this thread is the amount of people who used to be die hard Apple loyalists that are now saying Apple's lack of innovation and options have driven them away.

I used to be one of those Apple guys, but I jumped off about a year ago and I'm glad that I did. Apple's worry isn't the guy who hates Apple, he matters not. The worry is the guy like me, or many others on a forum like this, who used to camp out in line to get the next iPhone and now simply don't care because we know it will be more of the same and nothing new.

I used to laugh at people using Android devices, but the moment I hopped on board to "test out" the Samsung Galaxy series, there was no going back. Options, innovation, always pushing the envelope and very smooth integration. I just bought the HTC One and let me tell you, as an owner of all iPhones that have been created, the HTC One takes a backseat to no one in terms of build quality. At the moment, it is the best smartphone that has ever been produced.

I'm not here to bash anyone, just making a comment on what is becoming a very obvious trend.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 09:35 AM   #553
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Is Apple Out of Touch

Has Apple lost its touch with the outside world? They are not in the news, building up excitement and releasing new products. The stocks are dropping. The competition is lunging forward by leaps and bounds with software and technology. Apple is expected to release a cheap phone and a less than impressive upgrade to their iPhone 5. To top it off, we all know that Apple will sooner or later release an iPhone with a 5 inch screen or close to it, so why are they waiting. It appears to me that the "leadership" at Apple has left the building.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 10:06 AM   #554
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The downward pressure will continue until May - i have written about it earlier. Funds needs people to sell Apple cheap to buy them at low prices, lower the better. Once you have sufficient stock of Apple cheap stock, they will begin upward pressure to peak by WWDC in summer and pocket the difference.

Nice and simple. Nothing has to do with Apple fundamentals, which is going to have record revenue this quarter if you believe WS.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 11:51 AM   #555
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One of the often-cited disadvantages of a publicly-traded corporation is the necessity of placating short-term shareholders. People who, by their very definition, aren't involved with or privy to the company's longer term aims.

As noted earlier in this thread, it simply isn't feasible to take a company of Apple's market value (even down 40%) Private.

Which makes the question: Is this slide in Apple's share price dangerous to the long-term prospects for the company? The answer to which is an unambiguous NO.

Apple doesn't rely on issuing its own securities to fund operations or acquisitions. (Its got $140 billion in cash for that.) It doesn't rely on a soaring stock price to compensate its executives by means of Stock Options - Apple instead uses restricted Share Grants.

The only way a slumping stock price poses a hazard for Apple is if it prompts the Board of Directors to take actions that will ultimately damage the company - such as firing the CEO, or pushing the company to start making "Phablets" or other gimmicks that will ultimately dilute the brand.

Most professional analysts are now calling Apple either a "Strong Buy" or at least a "Hold." With Apple having continued strong profits, more than a hundred billion in the bank, and the most loyal customers in the world - that doesn't seem like the hardest call in the investment world.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 02:45 PM   #556
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Originally Posted by DesertEagle View Post
Where did the money go? It can't disappear just like that.
It wasn't money that was lost, it was shareholder wealth. Just like your house can go up or down in value, so can shares of Apple and their market capitalization.

----------

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Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Doesn't have to be manipulated for months. And I never suggested that. But when you have a hedge fund guy tweeting rumors of a stock split only to take them back the same day (after he sold on the jump and made a nice profit) that's what I call manipulation.
That can happen on a daily basis but in the long-term cannot be manipulated because the mass of buyers would eventually see the bargain that it is. The fact is that a MAJORITY of shareholders BELIEVE that Apple's best days are behind it and therefore selling the stock. That is the reason the price is down.

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Originally Posted by StoneJack View Post
Nice and simple. Nothing has to do with Apple fundamentals, which is going to have record revenue this quarter if you believe WS.
Record revenue is meaningless without understanding other metrics like revenue growth and earnings growth.

Revenue is still growing and is it at all time highs but the growth is slowing as you would expect as the numbers get bigger (Law of Large Numbers).

More importantly, profit growth has stalled and was the same as last year (no growth at all). Was that a one time occurrence or will that repeat this quarter?

Another metric is gross margins. If they are declining as they have been, that means that Apple has to lower prices or customers are choosing lower priced options (iPhone 16GB vs. 64GB, iPad Mini vs. iPad 4) which have lower margins. Both are bad for profits.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 05:48 PM   #557
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AAPL was doing OK today. Will hold a little longer.

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I bought 40 shares on Friday just for fun. See how it goes.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 06:54 PM   #558
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Originally Posted by Dmunjal View Post
That can happen on a daily basis but in the long-term cannot be manipulated because the mass of buyers would eventually see the bargain that it is. The fact is that a MAJORITY of shareholders BELIEVE that Apple's best days are behind it and therefore selling the stock. That is the reason the price is down.
So they didn't believe Apple's best days were behind it when they ran the stock up to $700 and were throwing out $1000 price targets? It's not like it was that long ago. Last September the stock was trading close to $700. So in a span of roughly 6 months a company can go from $1000 price targets to their best days being behind them and the stock trading at less than $400. And it has absolutely nothing to do with manipulation?

Fact is AAPL started taking a downward spiral right after hedge fund manager Doug Kass wrote a piece making a bearish case for AAPL. Of course once he drove the stock down enough then he was a bull again and making the case for buying the stock. Yet none of his bullish points addresses the bearish points he made earlier. Sorry this is manipulation pure and simple. And yes I do think he person can start a fire that spreads rapidly. And with Apple it's not about reality it's about perception. The stock price reflects perception not reality.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/...and-doug-kass/
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 07:01 PM   #559
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Apple needs something extraordinary to happen in the iPhone department.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 07:10 PM   #560
Dmunjal
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Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
So they didn't believe Apple's best days were behind it when they ran the stock up to $700 and were throwing out $1000 price targets? It's not like it was that long ago. Last September the stock was trading close to $700. So in a span of roughly 6 months a company can go from $1000 price targets to their best days being behind them and the stock trading at less than $400. And it has absolutely nothing to do with manipulation?

Fact is AAPL started taking a downward spiral right after hedge fund manager Doug Kass wrote a piece making a bearish case for AAPL. Of course once he drove the stock down enough then he was a bull again and making the case for buying the stock. Yet none of his bullish points addresses the bearish points he made earlier. Sorry this is manipulation pure and simple. And yes I do think he person can start a fire that spreads rapidly. And with Apple it's not about reality it's about perception. The stock price reflects perception not reality.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/...and-doug-kass/
Yes, things can change that fast. Call it a herd mentality and maybe Doug kicked it off and caused the catalyst. But to say that he's been causing the stock to drop for six months is completely wrong.

When Apple was $700, the perception was that earnings would improve in the future. Maybe Doug created some doubt and caused a few weak owners to sell. But did he also cause possible iPhone buyers to switch to Samsung? Did he also cause Apple's gross margins to drop? Is he responsible for delays and other supply chain issues that have prevented Apple from getting maximum profits? These are all fundamental issues that Apple is dealing with in the last 6 months.

I know there is manipulation in the stock market as I've seen it first hand. But they can only affect short term movements. The long term is decided by fundamentals and Apple's are getting weaker and not stronger at this moment. It could reverse based on new information from Apple but we won't know that until tomorrow or even later.

You give too much credit to one analyst.

And Btw, I can change my opinion on a stock based solely on valuation even if the fundamentals haven't changed. Apple may be expensive and a sell at 700 or cheap and a buy at 300. Maybe that is why Doug has changed his tune?
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 09:02 AM   #561
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Here is the information that confuses me about the stock price tanking:
  • They are very solid in the markets they are in.
  • PC Sales are declining - meaning people are moving to tablets rather than PCs. Apple is strong here.
  • Sales are still going up.
  • There are a multitude of new product possibilities to create new growth segments. TV, gaming, cloud, etc.
  • iTMS is turning into quite the profit center.
  • The current cash-adjusted PE is at a level not seen since 2000.
  • Customer satisfaction is still the tops in the industry.
  • Something, anything, positive - even announcing a stock buyback - seems like it should cause the price to rise right now.
  • Mac sales are still slowly growing.
  • The worst changes to the OS over the last few years have been the stupid skeuomorphism ones, which should stop.
I dunno, it still seems like a fantastic longer term investment to me. It seems like everyone has written Tim Cook off as a complete dud, and that they will never release a decent product ever again so the stock will slowly fall to the ground as interest in iPhone 5's die off completely.

It doesn't make any sense to me. We'll see what the next few months holds, I guess. I'm not selling, I've been scraping together pennies and bought as many shares as I can afford without taking on more risk than I'm willing to tolerate.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 09:53 AM   #562
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Originally Posted by salmon View Post
Here is the information that confuses me about the stock price tanking:
  • They are very solid in the markets they are in.
  • PC Sales are declining - meaning people are moving to tablets rather than PCs. Apple is strong here.
  • Sales are still going up.
  • There are a multitude of new product possibilities to create new growth segments. TV, gaming, cloud, etc.
  • iTMS is turning into quite the profit center.
  • The current cash-adjusted PE is at a level not seen since 2000.
  • Customer satisfaction is still the tops in the industry.
  • Something, anything, positive - even announcing a stock buyback - seems like it should cause the price to rise right now.
  • Mac sales are still slowly growing.
  • The worst changes to the OS over the last few years have been the stupid skeuomorphism ones, which should stop.
I dunno, it still seems like a fantastic longer term investment to me. It seems like everyone has written Tim Cook off as a complete dud, and that they will never release a decent product ever again so the stock will slowly fall to the ground as interest in iPhone 5's die off completely.

It doesn't make any sense to me. We'll see what the next few months holds, I guess. I'm not selling, I've been scraping together pennies and bought as many shares as I can afford without taking on more risk than I'm willing to tolerate.
People don't like uncertainty and declining margins on the iphone and ipad, where most of their revenue comes from. I think people are also afraid they have little else to offer in the future. I agree there are so many possibilities ahead, but think about it: 99 percent of people in equities have no idea how to quantify this or estimate intrinsic value, so they panic and sell instead. I think Apple is a bargain, so I swooped in. I could be wrong though, maybe future products and services are lower margin.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 10:12 AM   #563
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Stock went from $700 to $390 in SEVEN MONTHS. Whoever's in charge is responsible. Be it the way public relation is handled, product release cycles, ANYTHING. They did it wrong.

Forbes report Cook is on it's way out:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarc...-for-ceo-cook/
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 10:32 AM   #564
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Originally Posted by LaDirection View Post
Stock went from $700 to $390 in SEVEN MONTHS. Whoever's in charge is responsible. Be it the way public relation is handled, product release cycles, ANYTHING. They did it wrong.

Forbes report Cook is on it's way out:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarc...-for-ceo-cook/
Boy that article does nothing for confidence.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 11:03 AM   #565
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Originally Posted by lildimsum7 View Post
Estimates are actually around 15% lower than 2012 Q2 earnings, so if they actually do better than last year, then that's a big win, even if gross margins are lower than expected. I agree the iPad is still strong, and the iPhone is strong as well. The market share hasn't changed much since last year. It just took longer for investors to realize there's solid competition. We'll see. I hope my overweight position pays off.
Yes, but it is a market share percentage of a much larger market. Smartphone sales are up substantially year over year and tablet sales even more so. I haven't tried to parse out why analysts think that earnings are going to be lower when units sold of the various items is going to be substantially higher. I understand that margins are supposed to take a hit because the mix of sales is supposed to be shifting toward the cheaper end of Apple's product line. However this was also a quarter that saw no significant product ramp ups. This was a "pure profit, firing on all cylinders, all products launched and supply chain shook out quarter". Yes, Apple may have sold a lot more iPhone 4S's than might have been expected. But considering Apple has been having that form factor manufactured now for nearly three years, I suspect the manufacturing process if very streamlined and costs have been nicely trimmed.
But I'm just an amature conjecturing here. One huge factor for Apple's margins is what size memory customers choose for their products. That $100 price jump for each flash memory increase is Apple's biggest margin item. It makes a huge difference when a customer skips the 16gb phone and picks up the 64gb model of the same phone. I doubt there is anyway to tell how those numbers shake out and they can totally shift the margins in a big way.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 11:46 AM   #566
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AAPL was doing OK today. Will hold a little longer.
Today is today. But what about a few hours from now? What about 2 months? 1 year? Apple was suppose to be trading at $1000 per share end of last year.
I still remember how powerful the Sony name was back in the 80's and 90's. Looks like history will repeat itself. I remember making fun of Samsung earlier Android devices. Now I own a Note 2 and love it.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 12:38 PM   #567
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Today is today. But what about a few hours from now? What about 2 months? 1 year? Apple was suppose to be trading at $1000 per share end of last year.
I still remember how powerful the Sony name was back in the 80's and 90's. Looks like history will repeat itself. I remember making fun of Samsung earlier Android devices. Now I own a Note 2 and love it.
http://thetechblock.com/apple-stock-movement-history/
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 12:39 PM   #568
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when the earnings come out today get ready for another big falls in shares
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 12:40 PM   #569
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Originally Posted by LaDirection View Post
Stock went from $700 to $390 in SEVEN MONTHS. Whoever's in charge is responsible. Be it the way public relation is handled, product release cycles, ANYTHING. They did it wrong.

Forbes report Cook is on it's way out:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarc...-for-ceo-cook/
I can't believe you'd actually link to that Forbes story. Talk about a story with zero credibility.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:09 PM   #570
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdmoore74 View Post
Today is today. But what about a few hours from now? What about 2 months? 1 year? Apple was suppose to be trading at $1000 per share end of last year.
I still remember how powerful the Sony name was back in the 80's and 90's. Looks like history will repeat itself. I remember making fun of Samsung earlier Android devices. Now I own a Note 2 and love it.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 03:17 PM   #571
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Originally Posted by Boy1der View Post
Apple needs something extraordinary to happen in the iPhone department.
No - Apple needs something extraordinary to happen in an entirely new and unexpected department...
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Old Apr 24, 2013, 12:27 AM   #572
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Sorry I had to correct some spelling

Paper money as I would say since it is not liquid until you cash out. Yet some people did and they got boatloads of money from the basic principle of buy low and sell high. If you are a long investor(10+years) then don't be worried about Apples stock price in the present.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba Satori View Post
Well, $300 billion in shareholder value has been destroyed in less than a year.
Can you blame them?

Last edited by etrinh; Apr 24, 2013 at 12:29 AM. Reason: Spellcheck
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Old May 2, 2013, 01:35 PM   #573
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My 40 shares are doing great. around $391 to $447 today. $2000+ profit.

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I bought 40 shares on Friday just for fun. See how it goes.
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