Geez, it's not that it CAN'T happen, it's the ODDS of it.
* falling in a pig pen
* not broken
* landing lense up
* lens not dirty
* pig shows up ASAP
It is FAR MORE LIKELY that this thing was doctored than it just happened that way.
-t
ok, so what do you think the odds are? do you have a number? how did you calculate it? and what would be "reasonable" in your opinion?
are you proposing that the camera did fell, but not in pig pen and then someone added that part in? making sure that the entire fall is consistent with the image of the pig pen to be added? or that the entire fall is doctored, including the camera taking shots of the plane it fell from, earth getting near, something like a pig pen getting close and finally the pig shown first from a height and then in a close up?
and the odds of that are MORE likely?
- first, these are very sturdy machines, so it's not surprising at all it's not broken after a fall on relatively soft ground. odds of that are pretty good.
- the lens being face up might depend on the geometry of the camera (with whatever was attached to it, if anything), so it may be not surprising as well, but since i don't know, let's say it is 50%. not a big deal.
- the image remaining clear doesn't mean it was perfectly clean. as long as it wasn't massively dirty, you wouldn't see little specs on the lens, because they would be out of focus.
- if the camera landed in the pig pen, pigs would check it out out of curiosity
so your only legit point is that the odds of it ending up into the pig pen are 'too high' (without any suggestion of what are 'reasonable' odds).
however you are looking at this wrong and/or you don't understand well the nature of probabilities.
you are looking at this as if this was:
"what are the odds that i drop a camera from an airplane, and i get a good video of a pig licking it right after it landed?"
the odds of theta are indeed high (although not zero), but that is the wrong question.
because you HAVE watched the video, and that changes everything.
the 'right' question is more something along the lines of:
"what are the odds that a video i am watching on a forum, with millions of previous views is interesting and bizarre?"
i would put them at close to 1. wouldn't you?
the salient point is that you (and me and millions of others) watched the video. this already happened.
the guy apparently dropped the camera by accident.
if the guy on the plane didn't drop the camera, you wouldn't be watching the video.
if the camera broke on impact, you wouldn't be watching the video.
if the camera fell in a remote area and set there until it stopped working, you wouldn't be watching the video.
if somebody hadn't found the camera, you wouldn't be watching the video.
if that somebody hadn't decide to upload the video, you wouldn't be watching the video.
if the video was lame, not so many people would watch it and share it, so either you wouldn't be watching the video, or alternatively you would be watching the video and having some reactions to it (including possibly still claiming it was a hoax, because, well, what are the odds)
if the camera landed in a backyard or anywhere animals or people where around, it is very likely they would have come closer to check it out, so you would probably be watching the video just with a different story, but probably still claim it was a hoax, because, well, what are the odds.
if the camera landed not in a pig pen, backyard etc., but in some other 'interesting' but unlikely place (on a table, in a frying pan, hit a cow, on a car, in a swimming pool, through a window, etc.,) you would probably be watching the video and probably still claim it was a hoax, because, well, what are the odds.
obviously,it is not impossible that the video is a fake, but there is really not much that points to it being one, and most certainly not the supposedly 'long odds'.
