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View Poll Results: When it comes to man-made Climate Change
I believe it is real 49 66.22%
I believe it isn't real 20 27.03%
I'm still undecided 5 6.76%
Voters: 74. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Sep 21, 2013, 08:10 AM   #76
Technarchy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bug-Creator View Post
Lets see:

Here in europe we had a rather long winter, assuming that was also true further north (no I won't bother looking that up)the ice had much longer time to build up and much shorter time to melt.

What your pictures show that there was extremly little ice in 2012 and that there was an extreme change from 2012 to 2013.

Are such erratic patterns normal ? Will we continue to see them more often we increasing climate change ? Will the long time median be more ice or less ?
From a geological perspective what is happening and normal for one year or ten is really insignificant. The planet is constantly warming and cooling, sometimes to extremes, to mega extremes. Just ask the dinosaurs.

There's lots of voodoo science among climatologists. Way too many variables fueling conclusions based upon preconceived notions.

Cleaner air and water is reason enough to go green.
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Old Sep 21, 2013, 09:01 AM   #77
citizenzen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
Thank you for that well thought out and detailed response. However...
From the National Snow & Ice Data Center ...

Quote:
Media Advisory: Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for 2013
20 September 2013

Sea ice in the Arctic appears to have reached its minimum extent for the year, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Sea ice extent fell to 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles) on September 13, 2013, and has begun its seasonal autumn and winter growth.

Sea ice is frozen ocean water that melts each summer and refreezes each winter. The Arctic sea ice minimum marks the day—typically in September—when sea ice reaches its smallest extent. This year’s minimum extent is notably higher than the record low recorded last year of 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles) on September 16, 2012.

NSIDC scientists said this year’s higher extent is a temporary reprieve for the sea ice. “While this is a very welcome recovery from last year’s record low, the overall trend is still decidedly downwards,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“The pattern we’ve seen so far is an overall downward trend in summer ice extent, punctuated by ups and downs due to natural variability in weather patterns and ocean conditions,” Serreze said. “We could be looking at summers with essentially no sea ice on the Arctic Ocean only a few decades from now.”

NSIDC research scientist Julienne Stroeve said this year’s summer was cooler than the last several summers and that helped to slow the melting. Stroeve said, "Despite the lower temperatures, ice extent still fell well below the long-term average. That’s consistent with the Arctic’s ice cover being thinner than it was a few decades ago.”

Arctic sea ice has long been recognized as a sensitive climate indicator. The region’s sea ice extent—defined by NSIDC as the total area covered by at least 15 percent of ice—has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past thirty years.

“No single year’s turnaround can erase that,” said NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos. “Let’s not lose sight of the fact that 2013 is a very low extent year, despite the increase from last September.”
An examination [debunking] of the [mis]information Technarchy is spreading can be found here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/neve...-nonsense.html

Quote:
... plots clearly show that 2013 has been a weak melting-season, compared to the phenomenal melts of 2007 and 2012. It was always unlikely that 2012 would be followed by a second record - there's too much noise around in the climate to make that likely. For the same reason that throwing two sixes with a pair of dice twice on two successive turns is rather unlikely (to put it mildly), fairly chaotic natural systems tend, most of the time, to trend towards the statistical mean. This is so frequently observed that it has a technical term: 'regression towards the mean'.

But Rose takes the following seasonal cycle (September 7th data were the last figures he could have used before the piece was published) and applies an unique spin to it (numerical data from IARC-JAXA):

2012: maximum extent reached: 7th March; value: 14,709,086 km2

2012 7th Sept extent: 3,312,446 km2

2013: maximum extent reached: 14th March; value: 14,523,635 km2

2013 7th Sept extent: 4,893,380 km2

From 14.7 million square kilometres it melts down to 3.31 in 2012, it then grows back to 14.52 at its winter maximum (less than winter 2012) and then melts down to 4.89 as of September 7th 2013. Rose then triumphantly states in one year the ice grew by 60%. This is misleading: sea-ice growth occurs over an approximately six-month period beginning every autumn, when the sea starts to freeze and the ice extent expands from its minimum value. When the ice is retreating during the six-month melting-season, it is not growing, no matter whether one year's minimum reveals less melt than the previous year's.
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Old Nov 10, 2013, 01:14 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
There's lots of voodoo science among climatologists. Way too many variables fueling conclusions based upon preconceived notions.

Cleaner air and water is reason enough to go green.
There are many layers to this issue.

There are now two kinds of science, good and bad. Good science is when new abilities come out every year and the answer to 'can we do that' is always 'yes'. Aka, more freedom. Bad science is when we are told to feel guilty about doing what we want and the answer to 'can we do that' is often 'no'. Aka, less freedom.

The causes of climate change are uncertain. X result could be because of Y cause, but it could also be a sign of Z. Even measuring effects requires words like probable, likely, and trend. And the solutions are no better. They might help or they might not. One sounds like an easy fix the first day and fraught with risk the second.

Diffusion of responsibility on this is massive. Even if there were certainty, we are all in this together - and not in the good way. Why should we bother making expensive changes when it will only give the other guys a competitive advantage? How would we even know who contributed what proportion of what agent, never mind deciding what level of agent/cause creates what level of effect.

Every solution costs someone something and the bigger the change (regardless of it merits), the more opposition it will see. People respond to what they can feel. And it's easy for carefully aimed opposition to exceed the feelings created by something so gradual, we need century long time scales to even see.

How do you tell if the road you're on just got 1 degree steeper, if the cruise control increased fuel delivery without you noticing? So too, how do you tell if a given date is 10 degrees warmer than last year, when the AC is set to the same 72 and just runs for an extra hour? Most of the people in a position to do anything about it, live well isolated from the very symptoms we are expected to notice. So we are left with reports, second and third party information. All of it subject to errors, misunderstandings, and manipulation.

Humans suck at trends. We want to see clear cause and effect and clearly defined choices to resolve them. And scientists suck at PR. In the 19th century, the Italian scientist Schiaparelli was reporting on the details he observed on Mars. Describing the channels he saw criss crossing the surface, he used the word 'canale'. But it was mistranslated as 'canal'. In a time when people were well acquainted with canal builders, the public went crazy with speculation over who these beings, these Martians were, cutting up the surface of the red planet.
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Last edited by ElectronGuru; Nov 10, 2013 at 01:19 PM.
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Old Nov 10, 2013, 11:32 PM   #79
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I believe the climate changes.
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Old Nov 10, 2013, 11:42 PM   #80
jnpy!$4g3cwk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
Thank you for that well thought out and detailed response. However...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
From a geological perspective what is happening and normal for one year or ten is really insignificant. The planet is constantly warming and cooling, sometimes to extremes, to mega extremes. Just ask the dinosaurs.

There's lots of voodoo science among climatologists. Way too many variables fueling conclusions based upon preconceived notions.
Look back a few posts and you will see a graph of the sea ice extent. Yes, it is up from last year, but, it is still lower than any recorded year prior to 2006.

But, honestly, I'm more worried about what the sudden acidification of the ocean will do to marine organisms:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24369244

Climate change has happened before, but, the rise in CO2 is now well above the historical range that was associated with the waxing and waning of glaciers in the past.

Last edited by jnpy!$4g3cwk; Nov 10, 2013 at 11:43 PM. Reason: Bad editing.
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