With 500million registered accounts, and these kinds of download figures, along with 90-95% retention, taking into account the reality that emerging markets provide an opportunity for this figure to double, how can anyone doubt Apples ability to sell 250-300million IPhones? I really don't understand the pessimism around Apples iphone sales :/
Even if growth stalls, the refresh/upgrade cycle alone will ensure 150-200million iPhones sold annually, with the figure likely being much higher. Consider that at least 10-20% of buyers will buy everything Apple makes, and it seems very realistic to forecast 30% + average growth for the next 5-6 years. Mr market is pricing in reduced margins and lower revenue. Something is out of whack.
I wonder what would happen if Apple announced a plan to overhaul IAds and released a product that no-one is expecting. Apple has a lot of hardware and software people working for them. I have a hard time believing that all they are doing is handling the paperwork and supply chain details for incremental upgrades.
I have a hard time believing Apple isn't planning something big for 2014-2015. My bet is that they are waiting for costs/technology to catch up to a point where they can make their next major tech for a price that makes sense. Apple TV will be released this year, which I can honestly see causing earnings to nearly double. Imagine if Apple were to make itself a direct competitor of Cable/Dish. They already have the devices deployed. The Ipad/iphone/iPod touches are basically televisions. They could also release a $1500-2000 television that would make for a higher end consumption device for those that want it. Apple TV will be software that is equivalent to what cable providers offer and will allow those that opt for it to access content via the cloud from anywhere at any time. This will increase the amount of television that people watch, increasing the premium for the content. It will kill/hurt Netflix, and will bring in billions for Apple.
Imagine the opportunities that will come if they can produce a kind of payment system that goes through iTunes. Let's say you can monetize your finger print in a way that links it to you, combine it with a validation password that confirms your identify and the sky is the limit. Personally, I would trust Apple with my fingerprint over Google or Samdong. I doubt they would be able to offer comprable software/hardware. Perhaps this is what they are intending to do with their acquisition of one of the premiere finger print scanning companies? I'm putting together a proper article. The incessant bashing of Apple makes me very angry. What do you guys think? Any thoughts?
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