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Old Nov 3, 2012, 04:01 PM   #101
zioxide
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
Wow. I don't think those are too close to call at all for me now. I give all of them to Obama except Florida which I think Romney will win, and possibly Colorado which is a total toss up to me.
I agree with you but I was just going by the general consensus of most of the models.

Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada are all in Obama's corner.
Ohio is still close, but I'm pretty sure Obama's got that in his corner too. Mitt's Jeep lie sealed it for Obama in Ohio I think.

Florida is probably in Romney's.

New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia are the only real toss-ups now I think, but there's a good chance all of them go blue.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 04:05 PM   #102
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I think all the pollsters and Nate Silver are wrong.

This will be a landslide for either romney or obama.
Out of curiosity - why? I'd love to know why you think the polls are wrong.

I find it interesting that Nate Silver has caught so much flack lately. I see his work as more of a "Moneyball" approach to politics. He's using raw data and numbers rather than intuition and conventional wisdom. It worked in 2008. It will be interesting to see if it works on Tuesday.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 04:13 PM   #103
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Out of curiosity - why? I'd love to know why you think the polls are wrong.

I find it interesting that Nate Silver has caught so much flack lately. I see his work as more of a "Moneyball" approach to politics. He's using raw data and numbers rather than intuition and conventional wisdom. It worked in 2008. It will be interesting to see if it works on Tuesday.
That's my reasoning. The 2008 election was a lot different than the 2012 election.

There is so much electioneering,bad/false info being put out that imho anything can happen.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 04:21 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by SwiftLives View Post
Out of curiosity - why? I'd love to know why you think the polls are wrong.

I find it interesting that Nate Silver has caught so much flack lately. I see his work as more of a "Moneyball" approach to politics. He's using raw data and numbers rather than intuition and conventional wisdom. It worked in 2008. It will be interesting to see if it works on Tuesday.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...n-objectivity/

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Brad DeLong points me to this National Review attack on Nate Silver, which I think of as illustrating an important aspect of what’s really happening in America.

For those new to this, Nate is a sports statistician turned political statistician, who has been maintaining a model that takes lots and lots of polling data — most of it at the state level, which is where the presidency gets decided — and converts it into election odds. Like others doing similar exercises — Drew Linzer, Sam Wang, and Pollster — Nate’s model continued to show an Obama edge even after Denver, and has shown that edge widening over the past couple of weeks.

This could be wrong, obviously. And we’ll find out on Election Day. But the methodology has been very clear, and all the election modelers have been faithful to their models, letting the numbers fall where they may.

Yet the right — and we’re not talking about the fringe here, we’re talking about mainstream commentators and publications — has been screaming “bias”! They know, just know, that Nate must be cooking the books. How do they know this? Well, his results look good for Obama, so it must be a cheat. Never mind the fact that Nate tells us all exactly how he does it, and that he hasn’t changed the formula at all.

This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.

This is really scary. It means that if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn’t what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign.

It’s almost besides the point to notice that the whole notion that Nate Silver is somehow serving Obama’s interests by skewing the results is bizarre. This race is going to be decided by actual votes, not perceptions of “momentum”. But then posturing and bragging seems to be central to the right’s theory, for reasons I don’t get.

Anyway, it’s another disgraceful episode. And the fact that the National Review ran with this tells you all you need to know about the publication.
The right has been going on about Romney's perceived "momentum" (what a crock to begin with) for the past few weeks even though the facts and statistics didn't back it up. Because of this, instead of acknowledging that this "momentum" is media-manufactured to get people to tune in and rake in more advertising money, they try to discount the facts and statistics as being biased.

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Old Nov 3, 2012, 04:51 PM   #105
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Here's just another example of last minute changes that could make the polls useless.

http://thinkprogress.org/election/20...ion/?mobile=nc

A last-minute directive issued by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted (R) could invalidate legal provisional ballots. Ohio is widely viewed as the most critical state for both presidential campaigns and — with some polls showing a close race — the 11th-hour move could swing the entire election.
The directive, issued Friday, lays out the requirements for submitting a provisional ballot. The directive includes a form which puts the burden on the voter to correctly record the form of ID provided to election officials. Husted also instructed election officials that if the form is not filled out correctly by a voter, the ballot should not be counted.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 05:04 PM   #106
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Now that we're close, I'll post mine:
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 05:05 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by Peace View Post
Here's just another example of last minute changes that could make the polls useless.

http://thinkprogress.org/election/20...ion/?mobile=nc

A last-minute directive issued by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted (R) could invalidate legal provisional ballots. Ohio is widely viewed as the most critical state for both presidential campaigns and — with some polls showing a close race — the 11th-hour move could swing the entire election.
The directive, issued Friday, lays out the requirements for submitting a provisional ballot. The directive includes a form which puts the burden on the voter to correctly record the form of ID provided to election officials. Husted also instructed election officials that if the form is not filled out correctly by a voter, the ballot should not be counted.
Scum. smh
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:08 PM   #108
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I still think Obama will win OH.

In fact, I think Romney will pickup Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina. Other than that, I think the map will be the same as 2008.

Obama 303 - Romney 235

And it's going to be interesting because suddenly, one can win the presidency without winning the South - Because Obama can still win without Virginia.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:32 PM   #109
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Now that we're close, I'll post mine:
Wishful thinking -- but I think we should be more honest with ourselves. Obama wins every swing state? No way.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:50 PM   #110
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Wishful thinking -- but I think we should be more honest with ourselves. Obama wins every swing state? No way.
Maybe, maybe not.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 10:04 PM   #111
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Wishful thinking -- but I think we should be more honest with ourselves. Obama wins every swing state? No way.
Why not? Obama's ahead in polls for all of those states by at least a point or two.

I went one step further and predicted Obama would win NC. That might be wishful thinking, but I think Nathan's map is very realistic, and with the exception of Florida, it matches 538 - and once Nate Silver updates his predictions with some of the latest Florida polls, it might match it completely.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 10:11 PM   #112
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Why not? Obama's ahead in polls for all of those states by at least a point or two.

I went one step further and predicted Obama would win NC. That might be wishful thinking, but I think Nathan's map is very realistic, and with the exception of Florida, it matches 538 - and once Nate Silver updates his predictions with some of the latest Florida polls, it might match it completely.
Taking 538 and crossing it with the Princeton Election Consortium, you should get a pretty good factual (read: statistical) read on how Tuesday will go.

However.. taking into account the talking heads shows Sunday morning and what the idiot Secretary of the State in Ohio pulled just this past Friday, and Ohio may have just become an unknown again. 538 currently shows it roughly 80% Obama. Today, I'd say it's 70% at the most, if not a bit more, because of the now legal battle going on. It may not be until after the 17th we know anything about the election, because it may come down to those provisional ballots.

In short, Florida 2000 all over again.

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Old Nov 4, 2012, 10:37 AM   #113
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Taking 538 and crossing it with the Princeton Election Consortium, you should get a pretty good factual (read: statistical) read on how Tuesday will go.....
maybe/maybe not

when the polls show a close election then either candidate can win and the results of the polls will be "accurate" because they're within the margin of error the polls report........something all of us tend to ignore but the polling companies will be quick to point out.

I think Romney's going to wake up wednesday and be pissed that he didn't carry his own home state.......or to paraphrase what you said "2000 all over again."
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 10:43 AM   #114
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maybe/maybe not


I think Romney's going to wake up wednesday and be pissed that he didn't carry his own home state.......


Which "Home" state? Utah / California / New Hampshire / Massachusetts ?
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 10:46 AM   #115
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Which "Home" state? Utah / California / New Hampshire / Massachusetts ?
you left out michigan !

but he was only governor of one of those states and that's the one I was referring to
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 10:48 AM   #116
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you left out michigan !

but he was only governor of one of those states and that's the one I was referring to
D'Oh !
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 11:20 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by Macky-Mac View Post
maybe/maybe not

when the polls show a close election then either candidate can win and the results of the polls will be "accurate" because they're within the margin of error the polls report........something all of us tend to ignore but the polling companies will be quick to point out.
Yes, there is a margin of error, but when you have 100 polls all indicating the same thing, that margin gets much smaller.

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I think Romney's going to wake up wednesday and be pissed that he didn't carry his own home state.......or to paraphrase what you said "2000 all over again."
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you left out michigan !

but he was only governor of one of those states and that's the one I was referring to
Yeah, this isn't his "home state". We dont like him here. He doesn't belong here.

His approval rating when he left Beacon St was 34%.

I'm so sick of hearing him claim Massachusetts as his "home state" and hear all the "wonderful things" he did for Massachusetts. He ****ed everything up and finally after 6 years Deval Patrick has finally turned it around.

Romney could win all 49 other states in this country but there is no way in **** he would EVER win ANYTHING in Massachusetts ever again.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 12:33 PM   #118
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....Yeah, this isn't his "home state". We dont like him here. He doesn't belong here.....
sorry......you have my sympathies, but "you" elected him governor so now you're stuck with him.......life isn't always fair
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 01:16 PM   #119
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sorry......you have my sympathies, but "you" elected him governor so now you're stuck with him.......life isn't always fair
I didn't vote for him. Don't blame me. Blame the other idiots in this state who bought his sales pitch where he says whatever the current crowd he is speaking to wants to hear just to win.

It's the same exact thing he's doing now.
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Old Nov 6, 2012, 10:43 PM   #120
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Now that we're close, I'll post mine:
Looks like PEC and 538 helped me come pretty damn close, if not spot on.
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