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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:02 PM   #1
gopher
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Mac Mini a hit! And its orders are only beginning to ship!

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/te...FREE&cm_ite=NA

Well who knows, maybe Apple will be able to surprise pundits and make the Mac mini the next iPod!
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:22 PM   #2
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How high do you think Apple's Market Share will be one year from now?

~10% ?
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:34 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjpetry
How high do you think Apple's Market Share will be one year from now?

~10% ?
I wish it were so, but it may be a bit optimistic.
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:36 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by daveway00
I wish it were so, but it may be a bit optimistic.
I can always hope. How about 10% +-7%.
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:42 PM   #5
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Apple just had its best quarter in history and market share only went up .1%.

But, this constraint issue is nothing new. If Apple actually had the products they sell they would be doing fantastic in computer sales.
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 10:45 PM   #6
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I don't think Apple can make computers fast enough to even raise their marketshare 1%!
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 11:08 PM   #7
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Maybe 7%-10% of new computers sold, but not total marketshare. Also, does marketshare include every computer, including those from the early 90's, or is it just those from the past year, or what.
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Old Jan 21, 2005, 11:42 PM   #8
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Quoted from an article from LinuxInsider .

"In reality, Apple's declining relative market share measured in dollars has been due more to the expense of Wintel product churn than to a fall-off of interest among Mac users. Over the longer term, Apple's unit sales have consistently increased; what caused the decline in Apple's annual share of market dollars has been growth in revenue to the PC sellers.

In other words, it's Wintel's rapid upgrade cycle that's been getting progressively more and more out of line with norms for industrial or retail electronics products, and therefore not falling interest in the Mac, that's behind the numbers. Think about this for a minute: If PCs remained usable as long as Macs do, industrywide total revenues (aka customer costs) would be nearly two-thirds lower."
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 12:17 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kkapoor
Quoted from an article from LinuxInsider .

"In reality, Apple's declining relative market share measured in dollars has been due more to the expense of Wintel product churn than to a fall-off of interest among Mac users. Over the longer term, Apple's unit sales have consistently increased; what caused the decline in Apple's annual share of market dollars has been growth in revenue to the PC sellers.

In other words, it's Wintel's rapid upgrade cycle that's been getting progressively more and more out of line with norms for industrial or retail electronics products, and therefore not falling interest in the Mac, that's behind the numbers. Think about this for a minute: If PCs remained usable as long as Macs do, industrywide total revenues (aka customer costs) would be nearly two-thirds lower."
Hummm... Very interesting, so are we to assume that market share is being measured in dollars rather than units?
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 01:15 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lacero
I don't think Apple can make computers fast enough to even raise their marketshare 1%!
sniff...sniff...sniff...I smell an Apple Hater Troll.

Try a girlfriend for attention. It's a much better time.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 02:47 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BWhaler
sniff...sniff...sniff...I smell an Apple Hater Troll.

Try a girlfriend for attention. It's a much better time.
I dont think it was an apple hater troll. He was just saying that he doubts that the massive amount of units required to make 10% of the market may be beyound apples current resources. 10% is an awful lot
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 03:01 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
I dont think it was an apple hater troll. He was just saying that he doubts that the massive amount of units required to make 10% of the market may be beyound apples current resources. 10% is an awful lot
10% is an awful lot. But Lacero was questioning even a 1% increase. That's gotta be a lot more achievable.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 03:04 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daveway00
Apple just had its best quarter in history and market share only went up .1%.

But, this constraint issue is nothing new. If Apple actually had the products they sell they would be doing fantastic in computer sales.
Yeah, if only Apple was able to accurately predict demand for a brand-new product as well as you seem to claim.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 04:11 AM   #14
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Sorry guys right but Apple's Market Share will never reach 10% in a year and not even in 5. Apple will no way even be able to create that many computers (Mini's) even if they doubled their capacity miraculously even if the demand was there.
I think we are looking at a max figure of increase of 1/1.5% and that would be one hell of an achievement.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 04:31 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fredstar
Sorry guys right but Apple's Market Share will never reach 10% in a year and not even in 5. Apple will no way even be able to create that many computers (Mini's) even if they doubled their capacity miraculously even if the demand was there.
I think we are looking at a max figure of increase of 1/1.5% and that would be one hell of an achievement.
Anybody have any idea approx. how many computers a 1% increase would equate to?
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 04:49 AM   #16
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Well considering Apple sell about a million macs a quarter (being generous) then i guess at 2% there are 4 millions Mac's sold per annum so we are looking at about a 200 million unit per annum computer market.
So to increase their market share from 2 to 3 Apple would need to ship an extra 2 million units a year and increasing its present capacity by 50% at least. That is quite an increase in capacity and that is for only a 1% increase.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 06:47 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fredstar
Sorry guys right but Apple's Market Share will never reach 10% in a year and not even in 5. Apple will no way even be able to create that many computers (Mini's) even if they doubled their capacity miraculously even if the demand was there.
I think we are looking at a max figure of increase of 1/1.5% and that would be one hell of an achievement.
You have a point. At the current rate of production, the Mac mini tops out at 1.2 million units a year. And just how much more capacity does the company that builds it have for more units? I doubt that Apple would want to farm this out to other companies for production.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 07:16 AM   #18
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Let's put this into perspective, too: the original iMac and the "desklamp" both sold very well coming out of the gate...but fell off with time.

It's too early to say that the Mac mini will be a hit like the iPod...though we can sure hope! What speaks in favor of the mini sustaining high sales is the interest shown in it because of its price point. If the high price of Macs is what truly has kept some people from switching, then they don't have that excuse anymore, and Mac mini sales will continue to be healthy.

In other words...initial sales are encouraging, but let's see what happens over time.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 07:51 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomas Veil
Let's put this into perspective, too: the original iMac and the "desklamp" both sold very well coming out of the gate...but fell off with time.

It's too early to say that the Mac mini will be a hit like the iPod...though we can sure hope! What speaks in favor of the mini sustaining high sales is the interest shown in it because of its price point. If the high price of Macs is what truly has kept some people from switching, then they don't have that excuse anymore, and Mac mini sales will continue to be healthy.

In other words...initial sales are encouraging, but let's see what happens over time.
I agree. It will be interesting to see a year from know as to how the Mac mini is doing. Sort of like my Subu Baja. They planned on 1200 a units a month sold. I think that did that in the first couple of months. Now they struggle to get 600 to 800 units sold.
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 08:22 AM   #20
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Mac mini will be a great hit, as there is nothing close to mac mini in the current market (in the quality of an Apple product)

Apple needs more advertising and they beat the crap out of m$
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 08:35 AM   #21
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Yeh advertising is the key, but now through the hundred odd retail stores Apple can inform a lot more people. It is quite funny seeing people pass by the store in Regent street and just stop when they see the imac , imagine when they see the Mini
Does anyone know of some kind of advert being made for the Mini?
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 10:22 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fredstar
Yeh advertising is the key, but now through the hundred odd retail stores Apple can inform a lot more people. It is quite funny seeing people pass by the store in Regent street and just stop when they see the imac , imagine when they see the Mini
Does anyone know of some kind of advert being made for the Mini?
You're right walking past the Regent Street store is funny, children with their hands and noses up against the windows having a look while their parents just want to get on. They must have to wash those windows quite regularly.

I imagine there is a mac mini ad in production but won't be released until supply problems are sorted out.

Frank
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 12:09 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Koodauw
Hummm... Very interesting, so are we to assume that market share is being measured in dollars rather than units?
There are a lot of question marks that make "market share" a bad comparison. Remember that most of these "market share" numbers are being throuwn around by outlets that want to try and make Apple look bad (Dell, CNet, etc).

My guess is they are measuring in in units sold. Why? Apple's premium prices would give them an advantantage if you measured by revenue.

Are they counting all computers sold, or trying to make a calculation of what computers are actually in active use? Good question, I have never seen anybody mention that. If they're talking units moved over a decade, that would give Apple an artificial disadvantage, because Apple users tend to hold onto their hardware longer. So a 50 - 1 sales ratio (2%) might actually translate into a 4% market share of computers actually in use.

Then, as Jack at http://appleturns.com is fond of pointing out, this includes all the bulk corporate purchases and all the embedded system purchases. If you look at market share in the actual "personal" space, again Apple starts to look a lot better.

If you factor all of that in: remove the "throwaway" PC's, remove the corporate bulk purchases and just look at computers actually being used in people's houses, what would the Mac market share be then? I've never seen a number that even tries for that, and yet it seems it would be useful for companies to be able to effectively target their marketing.

So overall market share is a completely useless statistic that can be manipulated to mean whatever someone wants. More important is corporate health. Revenue growth, sales growth, expense reduction, mindshare, expanding into new markets...

When you look at those, who is one of the healthiest company in the industry?
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 12:36 PM   #24
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i think the mac mini won't be a hit... two usb ports... filled with pc keyboard and mouse... customer says..eh.. where do i plug in the printer?scanner?joystick?usb mp3 player?gnaw!!!
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Old Jan 22, 2005, 01:06 PM   #25
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If Apple would make as much commericials for the mini during mtv's shows then the minis would spark more interest.Dell is all over the place on tv and cable.HP as well.The time is now for apple to step up and explain why a mac would be a better choice then a pc.
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