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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:37 PM   #1
krustofski
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iPad 3 release also this year?

does anyone know john gruber? could you ask him what this sentence in his blog post about HPs TouchPad exactly means:

Summer feels like a long time away. If my theory is right, theyíre not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3. - http://daringfireball.net/

my english is not so good
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:40 PM   #2
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Not true, Apple isn't stupid to release the iPad 2 and then the iPad 3 a few months later. Plus it doesn't work with their refresh system.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:41 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by krustofski View Post
does anyone know john gruber? could you ask him what this sentence in his blog post about HPs TouchPad exactly means:

Summer feels like a long time away. If my theory is right, theyíre not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3. - http://daringfireball.net/

my english is not so good

First, the iPad 2 is not yet released, and MAY be released this summer. He is making a joke that if the HP TouchPad runs into more problems it will be released alongside the iPad 3. In other words, it will be over a YEAR behind when it was supposed to be released.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:43 PM   #4
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iPad 3 to fall in the fall?

Maybe true, Gruber is known for this kind of thing
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:45 PM   #5
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I think it is total BS and said with tongue in cheek
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:45 PM   #6
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Or is Gruber saying that Apple will switch the product cycle for iPad to the same as iPod? In time for the holidays...
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:46 PM   #7
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Or is Gruber saying that Apple will switch the product cycle for iPad to the same as iPod? In time for the holidays...
Not a chance
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:47 PM   #8
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I highly doubt that. Apple usually gives it a year or so between refreshes of most of their devices, which it's looking like will stay with the iPad. I suppose it's possible, just not very likely.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:48 PM   #9
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Not true, Apple isn't stupid to release the iPad 2 and then the iPad 3 a few months later. Plus it doesn't work with their refresh system.
yes, i know, it would be unusual for apple. but because of all the rumors about the retina display for the iPad ... maybe they are going for a minor update for the ipad 2 in april and then release the retina display ipad in october or so.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:49 PM   #10
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"Bump into" = "iPad 3 is released while HP's tablet is 6 months old" ?

Just a guess, but that's kind of what I think he means. My basic reasoning is that IF Gruber knew about the iPad 3, that's not at all how he would reveal that info. He'd sneak something like that into a big "I know but I won't admit it" joke post. It wouldn't be a random side comment on an HP post.

So, no, he's not really saying anything about the iPad 3.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:52 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by krustofski View Post
yes, i know, it would be unusual for apple. but because of all the rumors about the retina display for the iPad ... maybe they are going for a minor update for the ipad 2 in april and then release the retina display ipad in october or so.
There is often a giant chasm between what people wish Apple would do and what Apple actually does

Before the first iPad came out, the rumors were all about what people wanted it to be... wishful thinking

Same here
People want the retina display and since they are apparently not going to get it, they invent new rumors to justify why they aren't getting it and to believe it is just around the corner again.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:55 PM   #12
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Not a chance
Not a chance that Gruber is saying that, or not a change that Apple would do that?
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:57 PM   #13
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Not a chance that Gruber is saying that, or not a change that Apple would do that?
Not a chance Apple would do that
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 03:58 PM   #14
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I think he's saying if the iPad 3 is going to be released around 6 months later, why bother getting the Touchpad?
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:09 PM   #15
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I'm going to go against MacDawg (woof!) and state I think it's at least a possibility.

Yes, I know all about Apple's history with refresh cycles, so let's not go there.

But, as we've all been warned before, "Past performance does not mean future results."

If SJ sees a way to dominating this new part of the computing industry, he'll do it. If it means breaking convention on refresh cycles, so be it.

We've already gotten the leak that the iPad2 is in production. I'll give this leak credence due to the source (WSJ). Now, for sure I don't know how many weeks they need to get ready for a launch, but my gut feel is that they won't need until April to build up launch stock.

Does it perhaps mean a March 1 launch? And, if that's the case, could we then figure on an iPad 3 launch in the holiday season?

This is interesting, and I won't glibly dismiss the possibility with the wave of my hand.

Now, if we don't hear anything until April, then I'd go back to thinking that we're on the once-a-year update track. But Gruber's also a good leak source so I won't discount that easily either.

We'll see, and I consider this all fun speculation. If I'm wrong, no big deal - unlike some other posters who repeatedly and violently stated that there would never, ever, ever be an iPhone on Verizon...
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:21 PM   #16
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one more thought: is the ipad just "a bigger ipod touch"? = annual release cycle

or will it become apple's smallest macbook? = specs updates every six month
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:34 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by krustofski View Post
yes, i know, it would be unusual for apple. but because of all the rumors about the retina display for the iPad ... maybe they are going for a minor update for the ipad 2 in april and then release the retina display ipad in october or so.
Retina display for the iPad? That's crazy. I don't think we'll ever see a "Retina" display like the iPhone 4 for the iPad. Retina display is way too expensive as well, and releasing an iPad 2 and then a few months later an iPad 3 with retina display will only be more expensive.

But i think iPad 3 (next year) will have a resolution bump.

To answer your question, i think the iPad will be a giant iPod touch for a few years.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:38 PM   #18
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Not a chance Apple would do that
My question, which you were quoting, wasn't about what Apple would do, but what Gruber was saying.

Many here seems to think that Gruber was referring to the release of iPad 3 in 2012, but what I meant was that Gruber is saying that Apple will align iPad product cycle with the iPod, in time for the holidays.

Now, that IS what Gruber was saying (exactly like I originally thought), because he followed it up with this:
Apple doesnít announce much about what theyíre going to do in the future. But, theyíve become a very predictable company regarding the schedule for new hardware ó at least in the consumer space. New iPods come in the fall, at an event in September, timed to hit full production for the holiday season. New iPhones are announced at WWDC in June and ship soon thereafter.

[...]

So where does the iPad fit in? Last yearís iPad was announced early, in late January, and went on sale at the beginning of April. Apple was willing to announce it months in advance because they had no competition, and because they wanted to give iPhone developers time to write native iPad apps. The lack of competition was why they were willing to pre-announce the original iPhone by six months, as well.

Now that the iPad is out, though, I donít expect to see new hardware revisions pre-announced ó at least not by more than a handful of weeks. Overall, I think the iPad fits most naturally into the same schedule as the iPods: where new hardware is announced and ships in September. The iPad was a massive hit during this past holiday season.

I donít think April is a particularly good month for an annual iPad release. I donít think itís a particularly bad month, either, but it doesnít make as much sense as September. April is four months into the new year, but still feels like ďearlyĒ in the year. That leads to whispers and rumors during the holiday season that people should wait. Shipping new hardware in April adds another milestone to the iOS release schedule, too.

Thus, my gut feeling is that Apple will move the iPad to a September release schedule, alongside the iPods. But they wouldnít want to wait over a year and a half from the announcement of the original iPad to announce the second one ó not with these stakes, and not with so many serious competitors trying their best to catch up.
This is what I meant when I wrote:

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Or is Gruber saying that Apple will switch the product cycle for iPad to the same as iPod? In time for the holidays...
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:40 PM   #19
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For a tech company Apple fears change. The exception. If they choose to label it Revolutionary. Their code word for slightly different, yet safe.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:45 PM   #20
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I agree with this myself.

Personally, and I know other feel different. Knowing Apple will launch a new iPad in April, four months after Christmas kills the device as a Christmas purchase for me.

People may be, often looking toward money being saved to go towards a summer vacation a couple of months after April also.

Having a launch later in the year, and still having the device feel new and fresh in the lead up to the end of year feels good. There is then no point in thinking about holding off buying one for the holiday season.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:47 PM   #21
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What I didn't quote earlier was that Gruber is very clear that this time he is only guessing:
Now when I make actual guesses, some people (not unreasonably) think Iím being coy and actually releasing information that I know. Henceforth, when I say Iím guessing, Iím really guessing. That includes what Iím about to guess about the iPad hardware release schedule.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:52 PM   #22
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I will also say that Apple will need to telegraph its intentions if it does release both the iPad 2 and iPad 3 this year.

There would be too many people who would bank on a yearly (or near-yearly) release that would be upset by a quick follow-on release.

Nothing major would need to be said, just something like "and watch for more products in this space this year" and people would understand what was meant.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:55 PM   #23
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For a tech company Apple fears change. The exception. If they choose to label it Revolutionary. Their code word for slightly different, yet safe.
You're nuts.

When the iPod Mini was one of the best selling electonic devices, they stopped making it.

When they didn't put a floppy disk in the iMac, everyone said they were crazy.

They're currently the most aggressive company I know of in their quest to eliminate optical drives.

That's "fearing change?"
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 04:56 PM   #24
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I will also say that Apple will need to telegraph its intentions if it does release both the iPad 2 and iPad 3 this year.

There would be too many people who would bank on a yearly (or near-yearly) release that would be upset by a quick follow-on release.

Nothing major would need to be said, just something like "and watch for more products in this space this year" and people would understand what was meant.
I'm not sure if Apple would ever do this, but I'd expect they would just delay a April launch till the fall, as opposed to doing an April and a fall launch of to revisions in one year.

Apple fans will still wait, and would give Apple more time, another 6 months? to upgrade the spec that year.
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Old Feb 9, 2011, 05:03 PM   #25
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What I didn't quote earlier was that Gruber is very clear that this time he is only guessing:
Now when I make actual guesses, some people (not unreasonably) think Iím being coy and actually releasing information that I know. Henceforth, when I say Iím guessing, Iím really guessing. That includes what Iím about to guess about the iPad hardware release schedule.
By the way, I was thinking the same thing as Mr. Gruber before I read what he had to say. Great minds think alike, etc

It just makes a lot of sense.

A (mildly) disappointing iPad 2 is not going to get people excited, and there's competition on the way. I just can't see Jobs ceding this market that he created. So maybe there's reason for a relatively unprecedented non-cadenced upgrade cycle.

He's been there before, I think it's one of the things that drives him now.
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