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Old Jan 31, 2012, 01:14 PM   #126
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my overriding concern is that defence of the islands hinges on having an airfield to fly strike aircraft from. If we lose that airfield, either to a surprise amphibious or airbourne attack, we're stuffed and could probably never take the islands back without air superiority.
From the Wikipedia article on Dauntless:

The Daring class are often considered the most powerful air-defence warships in the world.[25] The ship's capabilities centre on the SAMPSON Multi Function Radar which can detect hundreds of targets out to a distance of 400 km (250 mi) and the Sea Viper missile system. In addition Daring's S1850M 3D air surveillance radar is capable of detecting 1,000 targets up to 400 km (250 mi). It is also capable of detecting outer atmosphere objects such as ballistic missiles.

So I guess it's being deployed as much for it's radar and enemy-detection capability as it is for it's weaponry. Should decrease the chance of a surprise anything...
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 01:42 PM   #127
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Not even that many Harriers initially! Invincible had 8, Hermes had 12. We were seriously outnumbered. Eventually some RAF Harriers arrived on one of the transport ships and cross-decked to the carriers.

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From the Wikipedia article on Dauntless:

The Daring class are often considered the most powerful air-defence warships in the world.[25] The ship's capabilities centre on the SAMPSON Multi Function Radar which can detect hundreds of targets out to a distance of 400 km (250 mi) and the Sea Viper missile system. In addition Daring's S1850M 3D air surveillance radar is capable of detecting 1,000 targets up to 400 km (250 mi). It is also capable of detecting outer atmosphere objects such as ballistic missiles.

So I guess it's being deployed as much for it's radar and enemy-detection capability as it is for it's weaponry. Should decrease the chance of a surprise anything...
Well yes. But she's not equipped for anti-ship (apart from her 4.5" gun)
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 04:03 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by fat jez
my overriding concern is that defence of the islands hinges on having an airfield to fly strike aircraft from. If we lose that airfield, either to a surprise amphibious or airbourne attack
Both are highly improbable scenarios. This is not 1982, we now have a proper military presence on the islands, completely unlike 30 years ago.

Remember one of, if not the main reason for Argentina invading in 1982 was the belief that the UK would not (and perhaps were incapable of) defending the islands.

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However, I still seriously doubt the Argentina of today will invade.
Agreed, though of course it's entirely questionable whether they're actually militarily capable of invading at all.

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Well yes. But she's not equipped for anti-ship (apart from her 4.5" gun)
What do you think the subs are for?
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 04:29 PM   #129
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Both are highly improbable scenarios. This is not 1982, we now have a proper military presence on the islands, completely unlike 30 years ago.

Remember one of, if not the main reason for Argentina invading in 1982 was the belief that the UK would not (and perhaps were incapable of) defending the islands.
You think we are capable of defending them now? 4 eurofighters, a VC10, 2 sea kings and 500 men. All it takes is to either capture or put out of action the airfield and we're history.

Seriously, go and read Commander Sharkey Ward's book, Sea Harrier Over the Falklands. He was there last time and he doesn't rate our chances the next time - if there is a next time.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 04:39 PM   #130
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You think we are capable of defending them now? 4 eurofighters, a VC10, 2 sea kings and 500 men. All it takes is to either capture or put out of action the airfield and we're history.
I don't think the point is a full defence, but showing that the UK will fight over the islands. The doubt was a key factor in the Argentine invasion before.

Also remember that those Eurofighters are far more capable than the fighters the Argentines air force has, and that Destoryer being sent is also far above anything the Argentines have. If they invaded they would lose a disproportionate amount of hardware in the process.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 07:03 PM   #131
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What do you think the subs are for?
Right, and they are far more stealthy than any surface vessel.

And remember, the closest point to Argentina is Tierra del Fuego - Río Grande, at 704 km, 437 miles. And I doubt there is a navel base way down there.

Hard to avoid surveillance over even that distance from sonar, radar or satellite view.
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Old Jan 31, 2012, 07:16 PM   #132
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The military capability debate is fascinating from an armchair-admiralship perspective, but the truth is that neither nation is really contamplating armed conflict. A little saber-rattling is not evidence of an impending shooting war. In order to reach that point some as-yet-unforeseen provocation on either side would have to take place. Not even drilling for oil would bring us to that situation by itself.

This question is far more likely to be settled on some distant day as the result of years of diplomacy, not another war.

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Well yes. But she's not equipped for anti-ship (apart from her 4.5" gun)
They do carry a helicopter that can launch Harpoon anti-ship missiles which, given Argentina's current capability, confers useful anti-ship capability.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 05:29 AM   #133
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The military capability debate is fascinating from an armchair-admiralship perspective, but the truth is that neither nation is really contamplating armed conflict. A little saber-rattling is not evidence of an impending shooting war. In order to reach that point some as-yet-unforeseen provocation on either side would have to take place. Not even drilling for oil would bring us to that situation by itself.

This question is far more likely to be settled on some distant day as the result of years of diplomacy, not another war.


The chances of Argentina staring a war over the Falklands is nil. Argentina is a completely different country than 1982.



Some times it sounds like some of you would relish a war with Argentina.

You have 9,500 soldiers stuck in a brutal war, before you start another, try and win that one.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 05:52 AM   #134
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The chances of Argentina staring a war over the Falklands is nil. Argentina is a completely different country than 1982.
I think most of us know that, I really can't see a war occurring.

However, it is interesting to wonder what would happen if they did invade because the Royal Navy is going through a major transition at the moment. Until about 2020 it's ability to project power is weakened. Right now any task force sent would be a bit of a motley crew, but in ~10 years time it would be highly capable. Like Lord Blackadder said, it's armchair admiralship.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 08:38 AM   #135
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All it takes is to either capture or put out of action the airfield and we're history.
Do you not think that with the facilities and capabilities that the UK now have on (and shortly floating around) the islands that we won't see them coming this time?

Again, this is not 1982.

You have an Argentine Military that has been enormously underfunded for decades (their military budget is barely $3.2 billion), has not significantly updated their airforce, or their navy for that matter, and they no longer have their own carrier capability either.

Likewise, we now have a serious military presence on the islands, a 1200 Garrison (not the 500 figure you mentioned), SAM's, EW, 4 Typhoons, and now arguably the world's best destroyer floating offshore, and a properly developed and equipped airbase, and one that can be significantly reinforced within 24 hours (both from a troop and aircraft perspective), if (and lets be realistic here, it's a pretty big if) required.

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I don't think the point is a full defence, but showing that the UK will fight over the islands. The doubt was a key factor in the Argentine invasion before.
Which was exactly my point, I thought I was been clear, but obviously not.

Militarily the situation is vastly different now. Sadly, politically however, I'm not so sure anything's really changed.

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And remember, the closest point to Argentina is Tierra del Fuego - Río Grande, at 704 km, 437 miles. And I doubt there is a navel base way down there.
Indeed, which would remain as much as a problem for Argentina now, as it did 30 years ago.

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The chances of Argentina staring a war over the Falklands is nil. Argentina is a completely different country than 1982.
Like I said in a post a few pages back, I suspect the political stalemate that currently exists between the UK and Argentina will simply continue, and then die down as the Argentinian political cycle refreshes, but frankly it's impossible to see any change or solution to the situation in the future, unless Argentina is willing to acknowledge & accept the status of the islanders themselves, and therein lies the potential problem for conflict in the future.

But also, the UK mustn't make the same mistake as in 1982, we have to make sure that we're in a position that should diplomacy fail or like in 1982 be completely ignored by Argentina, that a capability to defend the islands is in place.

And unlike 30 years ago, such a capability and deterrent now exists.

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before you start another
Hmmmm, one of the more ludicrous things I'll read today I suspect, but the day's still young.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 10:32 AM   #136
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before you start another
Hmmmm, one of the more ludicrous things I'll read today I suspect, but the day's still young.
About starting wars.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War

But Blair and Bush pushed like hell to get their Crusade.

Not of course to say that all people wanted war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Februar...ti-war_protest
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 11:54 AM   #137
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About starting wars.
I was thinking more your ludicrous inference that we're going to start a war with Argentina.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 11:58 AM   #138
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I was thinking more your ludicrous inference that we're going to start a war with Argentina.
Well we could make a claim to sovereignty over Argentina, that should distract them from the Falklands.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 12:05 PM   #139
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Well we could make a claim to sovereignty over Argentina, that should distract them from the Falklands.
You have to really start worrying when they start saying that Argentina has WMD, and the produce a "Sexed up " document.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 01:25 PM   #140
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Well we could make a claim to sovereignty over Argentina, that should distract them from the Falklands.
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You have to really start worrying when they start saying that Argentina has WMD, and the produce a "Sexed up " document.
No need for such malarky, they film Total Wipeout there... that's reason enough.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 02:56 PM   #141
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To a certain extent, South America is more regionally united than in the past. I think a (wise) long-term goal we have seen some South American leaders pursuing a more unified South American politcal bloc with more common goals as a defense against economic and polical encroachment from Asia, Europe, and North America. Brazil and Argentina have in particular been cooperating more and more in recent years.

If this development continues, any serious dispute over the Falklands in the future could involve more than just Argentina - and in the (very unlikely) event of a conflict, one would have to take into account a much greater military capability than Argentina alone. The Brazilian Navy maintains a good all-round capability, and has an active CATOBAR aircraft carrier that Argentinian strike aircraft train on regularly.

Again, none of these nations are seriously contemplating a war, but they are serious about regional defense and together they present a formidable deterrent.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 03:05 PM   #142
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Again, none of these nations are seriously contemplating a war, but they are serious about regional defense and together they present a formidable deterrent.
It is hard to characterise an attack on the Falklands/Malvinas by Argentina as "defence" - or even "defense".
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 03:14 PM   #143
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To a certain extent, South America is more regionally united than in the past. I think a (wise) long-term goal we have seen some South American leaders pursuing a more unified South American politcal bloc with more common goals as a defense against economic and polical encroachment from Asia, Europe, and North America. Brazil and Argentina have in particular been cooperating more and more in recent years.
I see your point, but I expect neighbours like Brazil would be even more reluctant to fight over this than Argentina. The EU is now the world's largest economy, and a united South America has great potential too (especially with Brazil's strengths). The last thing either continent would want would be a stand off, each would be too economically vital to the other. In the highly unlikely event of conflict I expect each country's respective neighbours would stick to words and want to stop it escalating along continental lines.
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Old Feb 1, 2012, 03:28 PM   #144
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It is hard to characterise an attack on the Falklands/Malvinas by Argentina as "defence" - or even "defense".
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I see your point, but I expect neighbours like Brazil would be even more reluctant to fight over this than Argentina.
I'm not referring to 1982 - that was an act of aggression on the part of Argentina, plain and simple - but simply trying to assess the potential military capability of the region. As for defining terms, I suppose I was using "defence" in the sense of "defence" = defence capability = military capability, rather than "defence" vs "attack". The euphemism "defence" (as in Department of Defense/Ministry of Defence) as a descriptor for military matters has become pretty standard in the media and official circles. Imagine a "Ministry of Military Aggression"!

I'm also recklessly alternating between the US and UK spellings of "defen(s/c)e".

But I agree, whichever nation becomes the agressor in any conflict over the Falklands/Malivinas will almost certainly fight alone.
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Old Feb 2, 2012, 12:34 PM   #145
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Turns out that we're sending one of our Warrior Princes as well.

That ought to give them something to think about in Buenos Aires.
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Old Feb 2, 2012, 12:39 PM   #146
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If they're sending a warrior prince I suspect his helicopter will have been packed be full of longbows and pointy sticks.
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Old Feb 2, 2012, 12:42 PM   #147
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If they're sending a warrior prince I suspect his helicopter will have been packed be full of longbows and pointy sticks.
His last big foreign mission was to help secure the 2018 World Cup hosting rights for England. Given how well that went the Falkland Islanders had best start brushing up on the words for Himno Nacional Argentino...
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Old Feb 2, 2012, 02:12 PM   #148
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from aljazeera's report

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...The Argentinian foreign ministry said it was saddened that Prince William "will arrive on our soil in the uniform of a conquistador, and not with the wisdom of a statesman who works for peace and dialogue between nations"....
Prince William dressed as a conquistador?
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Old Feb 2, 2012, 02:19 PM   #149
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Prince William dressed as a conquistador?
Probably his dress uniform they're thinking of.
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Old Feb 2, 2012, 02:30 PM   #150
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Probably his dress uniform they're thinking of.
something like this perhaps?


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