Register FAQ / Rules Forum Spy Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
Go Back   MacRumors Forums > News and Article Discussion > MacRumors.com News Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:00 PM   #26
andyjam
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Sydney, Australia
And today, Microsoft is worth $250bn. Nobody could have possibly foreseen the loss of 75% of their market cap (based on inflation adjusted numbers) in the late-1990's, but surely enough...

Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever. My predication is that there will be a big crash some time over the next few years. Probably 2015-16, especially if they reach $1000 per share by 2014.

There is no such thing as the perfect company, or the perfect stock. Investors need to realise this, because AAPL is looking pretty perfect at the moment and that's just going to fuel overconfidence.
andyjam is offline   11 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:02 PM   #27
Xscapes
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: New York
Quote:
Originally Posted by hirshnoc View Post
Wirelessly posted

Berkshire Hathaway stock shares go for like $121,000 a share. Market cap isn't this big though. Apple wouldn't be breaking any records hitting $1K. Maybe for the NASDAQ, but not in history.
Will break the $1 Trillion Market Cap record. I don't think there any company ever reach $1 trill.
__________________
MacBook Pro Retina 15" 2012, i7 2.3 GHz, 8 GB RAM, 256 GB SSD
iPad Air 16 GB T-Mobile LTE
iPhone 5s 16 GB AT&T
Xscapes is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:06 PM   #28
deannnnn
macrumors 68000
 
deannnnn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: New York City & South Florida
Yes I approve of this. Thanks for asking.
__________________
MacBook Pro (Retina) / iPhone 5S
deannnnn is offline   -1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:06 PM   #29
SirChadwick
macrumors member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
I remember the irrational exuberance in the late 90's for technology investments. Money was being thrown at ideas and technology potential without regard. Ideas can be cheap to create and replace. It is not outside the realm of possibility for an Apple bubble pop at a later date.
SirChadwick is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:10 PM   #30
thai4life
macrumors newbie
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Wirelessly posted

well judging by the news of late --- or rather lack, thereof -- it certainly won't be moving not even a few cents for the next few months, not until the appearance of a new iPhone. And depending of the degree to which they update it, their stock might just take a dip in the opposite direction!

Those that have been with the iphone since day 1 caught on to Apple's tactics right around the release of the 3GS. Our eyes were WIDE OPEN by the time they released the 4S fiasco. And I would venture to guess a sizeable numbers of owners didnt upgrade primarily for that very reason, myself included. Now if we could just get the general public to snap outta this trance that Apple has induced and make it known that anything less than a total make-over --- to include most importantly a huge increase in screen size --- and significant software update is UNACCEPTABLE I think we could send a loud n clear message.

Now will that actually happen? Of course not. But we hardcore iPhone owners can always dream can't we?
thai4life is offline   -9 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:13 PM   #31
iMikeT
macrumors 68020
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: California
Buy! Buy! Buy!!!!!
iMikeT is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:15 PM   #32
GFLPraxis
macrumors 604
 
GFLPraxis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooberton View Post
If a stock gets to 1000 a share?? There's stocks for 100,000 + for 1 share
Case in point.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by andyjam View Post
And today, Microsoft is worth $250bn. Nobody could have possibly foreseen the loss of 75% of their market cap (based on inflation adjusted numbers) in the late-1990's, but surely enough...

Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever. My predication is that there will be a big crash some time over the next few years. Probably 2015-16, especially if they reach $1000 per share by 2014.

There is no such thing as the perfect company, or the perfect stock. Investors need to realise this, because AAPL is looking pretty perfect at the moment and that's just going to fuel overconfidence.
In the mean time...LEAP options here we come.
GFLPraxis is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:15 PM   #33
liavman
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Quote:
Furthermore, we believe factoring in an Apple Television could add more than $4 in EPS
That will require a sales of around 20 Million TV in 2015. Even then it adds only $50 to the stock price. From the $950 range, that is just a 5% change in price.

20 Million TVs per year for a 5% extra return on Apple stock price. That is what needs to be understood from what Gene Munster says. At those price levels, a $50 a swing in price can happen due to macro economic conditions. So the entire Apple TV business is noise caught up in such random market oscillations.

In general terms, I can see Apple stock price going up to 1000 etc as Gene says. I have a very conversative market evaluation model that predicts that in the second half of this decade, Apple will be on the right hand side of the growth bell curve ( slowing growth phase ) which will contract the P/E towards 12 which means the price will settle back down to around $800.00. So beyond $800.00 the risk/reward ratio turns against Apple.

Last edited by liavman; Apr 3, 2012 at 12:21 PM.
liavman is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:17 PM   #34
guzhogi
macrumors 68020
 
guzhogi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Wherever my feet take me…
I agree with many of you; I'm happy for Apple, but wonder how Apple will be able to continue its upward trend. Maybe if Apple releases its rumored TV. However, I see Apple' stock either leveling off or going down if Apple continues to just do Macs, iOS & current software. As some people have said, aw of large numbers. But what do I know? I'm no economics expert.

Also wish I had gotten in in 1997 or so when the stock was at what? $3/share?
guzhogi is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:23 PM   #35
The Monkey
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
"...Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend"


Of course, because everything financial just goes up up up forever! (See internet stocks; see also housing prices.)

If anything, this post is a death knell.
The Monkey is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:25 PM   #36
gglockner
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Bellevue, WA
Quote:
Originally Posted by hirshnoc View Post
Wirelessly posted

Berkshire Hathaway stock shares go for like $121,000 a share. Market cap isn't this big though. Apple wouldn't be breaking any records hitting $1K. Maybe for the NASDAQ, but not in history.
I was thinking the same thing the other day -- at what point is a share of AAPL worth more than a share of BRK.A.
__________________
Giving my money to Apple since 1993.
gglockner is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:34 PM   #37
foobarbaz
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by basesloaded190 View Post
This stock is going to be traded mainly by large firms soon as the average Joe won't be able to purchase stock and those prices.
If Joe can't afford a 1000$ share, he has no business investing in (or worse trading) individual shares. He should invest in stock funds, instead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by andyjam View Post
Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever.
Of course not. That obvious fact doesn't mean Apple can't grow for another 1, 10 or even 100 years.

People have been using that argument for years (leading to significant P/E compression), yet Apple is still amazingly growing faster than many, many small companies (30%++). And now it's cheaper than most (per earnings). Apple can (and likely will) still be a great investment.

Of course, there is no guarantees for this stock. But there's no such thing for any other stock, either. But if the last 5 years have shown me anything, it's never to bet against AAPL.
foobarbaz is offline   -1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:39 PM   #38
davids8477
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirChadwick View Post
I remember the irrational exuberance in the late 90's for technology investments. Money was being thrown at ideas and technology potential without regard. Ideas can be cheap to create and replace. It is not outside the realm of possibility for an Apple bubble pop at a later date.
True - but most of those were selling vapor-ware this company has real products that are in high demand. If they keep innovating they will get there - but thats the challenge.
davids8477 is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:47 PM   #39
futbalguy
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: May 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by thai4life View Post
Wirelessly posted

well judging by the news of late --- or rather lack, thereof -- it certainly won't be moving not even a few cents for the next few months, not until the appearance of a new iPhone. And depending of the degree to which they update it, their stock might just take a dip in the opposite direction!

Those that have been with the iphone since day 1 caught on to Apple's tactics right around the release of the 3GS. Our eyes were WIDE OPEN by the time they released the 4S fiasco. And I would venture to guess a sizeable numbers of owners didnt upgrade primarily for that very reason, myself included. Now if we could just get the general public to snap outta this trance that Apple has induced and make it known that anything less than a total make-over --- to include most importantly a huge increase in screen size --- and significant software update is UNACCEPTABLE I think we could send a loud n clear message.

Now will that actually happen? Of course not. But we hardcore iPhone owners can always dream can't we?
Apple doesnt have to release news or new products for the stock price to move. It moves up and down every day based on how analysts think their future prospects are changing.

And your demands for changes to the phone are just your opinion which was influenced by a bunch of crazy rumors around design changes. They will update the design when they think its necessary and if they dont its not "UNNACCEPTABLE". You just dont upgrade or get a different phone. They arent going to update the look every year and the current look seems pretty popular even if you (and me) are tired of it by now.
futbalguy is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:50 PM   #40
NewbieCanada
macrumors 68020
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Monkey View Post
"...Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend"


Of course, because everything financial just goes up up up forever! (See internet stocks; see also housing prices.)

If anything, this post is a death knell.
Long term, taking a broad view, everything does go up forever. There are bumps in markets, and some companies fail, but since the Internet bubble burst the net has become far larger and of greater economic importance than people even imagined at the time.

If a company keeps making products that people want to buy, their stock will go up. Example? Coca-Cola stock is 74 now. Their adjusted price (for splits) 20 years ago is 13.11. Mcdonald's 98 today, 7.90 then.

Nothing fancy in those two decades, no ground-breaking products that changed the way we eat or drink - just products and brands that enough consumers love, with high profit margins. Of course Apple does run the risk of a game-changer being introduced by someone else.

I bought AAPL (around $135) when the iPod touch was announced, with the modest ambition of having it earn enough to pay for my iPod by the time it was released. That's worked out pretty well for me, all in all.
NewbieCanada is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 12:54 PM   #41
finnns2000
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Pineapple under the sea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooberton View Post
If a stock gets to 1000 a share?? There's stocks for 100,000 + for 1 share
I know about Berkshire...
__________________
13" i7 MacBook Pro [2.9GHz/8GB/750GB] | iPhone 5 [32GB/White] | AirPort Extreme
finnns2000 is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:01 PM   #42
CalWizrd
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: NYC/Raleigh, NC
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirChadwick View Post
I remember the irrational exuberance in the late 90's for technology investments. Money was being thrown at ideas and technology potential without regard. Ideas can be cheap to create and replace. It is not outside the realm of possibility for an Apple bubble pop at a later date.
Somehow, I detect a little more tangible value in Apple than, for example, "Asparagus.com". The 90's were total lunacy... this is a little different.
__________________
"Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." -- H.L.Mencken
CalWizrd is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:01 PM   #43
fruitycups
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Wirelessly posted

Should have investe in apple
fruitycups is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:03 PM   #44
basesloaded190
macrumors 68030
 
basesloaded190's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Wisconsin
Send a message via AIM to basesloaded190
Quote:
Originally Posted by foobarbaz View Post
If Joe can't afford a 1000$ share, he has no business investing in (or worse trading) individual shares. He should invest in stock funds, instead.
That couldn't be more further from the truth. Because someone can't afford to spend 10's of thousands of dollars on one particular stock means they should not be invested in the stock market? Get real.
__________________
2011 MacBook Pro 15 HR Anti-Glare, Etymotic ER-4p, iPhone 4 32GB
Twitter
basesloaded190 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:11 PM   #45
guzhogi
macrumors 68020
 
guzhogi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Wherever my feet take me…
Quote:
Originally Posted by basesloaded190 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by foobarbaz View Post
If Joe can't afford a 1000$ share, he has no business investing in (or worse trading) individual shares. He should invest in stock funds, instead.
That couldn't be more further from the truth. Because someone can't afford to spend 10's of thousands of dollars on one particular stock means they should not be invested in the stock market? Get real.
I agree with bases loaded. Not being able to afford a stock ≠ they know nothing about the stock market and being able to afford a stock ≠ they do. Not saying that the opposite is true all the time either. It's not just not just how rich you are, it's how smart you are, too.
guzhogi is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:17 PM   #46
imageWIS
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: NYC
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyjam View Post
And today, Microsoft is worth $250bn. Nobody could have possibly foreseen the loss of 75% of their market cap (based on inflation adjusted numbers) in the late-1990's, but surely enough...

Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever. My predication is that there will be a big crash some time over the next few years. Probably 2015-16, especially if they reach $1000 per share by 2014.

There is no such thing as the perfect company, or the perfect stock. Investors need to realise this, because AAPL is looking pretty perfect at the moment and that's just going to fuel overconfidence.
This.

Some other player will come in with some other hot product(s) and/or service(s) and overtake Apple. It's the way of the world... you can't have progress without it.
imageWIS is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:21 PM   #47
Macclone
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
In at 218, 248, 601 and wishing I had more liquid assets,
Macclone is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:25 PM   #48
johncrab
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Keep in mind these Wall Street "ANALysts" are the same ones that set insane targets in order to slam the shares of a good company, enabling their firms to scoop up blocks of shares at a bargain price. They want $1k/share. People in hell want ice water too.
johncrab is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:40 PM   #49
Morod
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: On The Nickel, over there....
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMikeT View Post
Buy! Buy! Buy!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W_u4UTvk9w
__________________
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
Albert Einstein
Morod is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 3, 2012, 01:41 PM   #50
The Monkey
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieCanada View Post
Long term, taking a broad view, everything does go up forever. There are bumps in markets, and some companies fail, but since the Internet bubble burst the net has become far larger and of greater economic importance than people even imagined at the time.

If a company keeps making products that people want to buy, their stock will go up. Example? Coca-Cola stock is 74 now. Their adjusted price (for splits) 20 years ago is 13.11. Mcdonald's 98 today, 7.90 then.

Nothing fancy in those two decades, no ground-breaking products that changed the way we eat or drink - just products and brands that enough consumers love, with high profit margins. Of course Apple does run the risk of a game-changer being introduced by someone else.

I bought AAPL (around $135) when the iPod touch was announced, with the modest ambition of having it earn enough to pay for my iPod by the time it was released. That's worked out pretty well for me, all in all.
I think your point is better stated as "successful companies go up forever." And when we aggregate companies and track them over the years, it tends to support your theory. Looking at the S&P 500 we see a general upward trend (punctuated by precipitous declines). The problem with this, however, is that the S&P 500 doesn't include those companies that have gone under, whose market cap has placed them in another index, who have been acquired, etc. So, the theory that the stock market is a good long bet makes decent sense...until it doesn't. Especially when one makes a bet on only one stock.
The Monkey is offline   1 Reply With Quote

Reply
MacRumors Forums > News and Article Discussion > MacRumors.com News Discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Similar Threads
thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Apple Continues to Gain Smartphone Market Share in U.S. MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 114 Apr 7, 2013 01:23 PM
Apple's Stock Price Breaks Through $700, Sets New All-Time Records for Price and Market Cap MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 318 Mar 12, 2013 05:10 PM
Samsung and Apple Continue to Dominate Smartphone Market, But iOS Market Share Falls MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 141 Feb 20, 2013 06:48 AM
Analysts Share in Blame for Apple's Stock Drop, Says Fortune MacRumors Mac Blog Discussion 45 Jan 27, 2013 11:21 AM
Apple Stock to be $1000/Share 1Q2013? onepremiere Apple, Industry and Internet Discussion 8 Jun 13, 2012 03:33 PM

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:12 AM.

Mac Rumors | Mac | iPhone | iPhone Game Reviews | iPhone Apps

Mobile Version | Fixed | Fluid | Fluid HD
Copyright 2002-2013, MacRumors.com, LLC