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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:23 PM   #1
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Early iPhone 5 Purchases Trend Toward iPhone 4S Upgraders and Black Models Amid Long Lines






Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White has released a new report analyzing some launch-day iPhone 5 data based on a limited survey of 100 purchasers at Apple retail stores in New York City. According to White's data, half of surveyed iPhone 5 were upgrading from the iPhone 4S, which itself was released only 11 months ago.
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Given that the iPhone 4S was launched just one year ago and many consumers are locked into a two-year service agreement with their carrier, we thought the vast majority of the upgrades would come from iPhone 4, previous iPhone generations or non-iPhone users. However, our survey indicates the opposite. In fact, our survey found that 50% of the iPhone 5 buyers upgraded from the iPhone 4S, 11% from the iPhone 4, 3% for 3GS and 36% from non-iPhone users.
Among non-iPhone users moving to the iPhone 5, White found that Nokia and HTC were the most popular phone brands being abandoned for the iPhone 5. White also surveyed customers on their iPhone 5 color preferences, finding that 56% of surveyed buyers were opting for the "Black and Slate" models over "White and Silver" models.

In a separate report, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster discusses his team's visits to Apple's Fifth Avenue and Upper West Side retail stores in New York City and the Uptown store in Minneapolis, where they found that lines were on average 83% longer for the iPhone 5 than they were for the iPhone 4S. Munster also had representatives counting customers at the Chestnut Hill and Bolyston Street stores in the Boston area, but with no prior-year data available for those locations, they primarily serve as a baseline for future analysis.
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We believe that based on our count of 775 customers in line for the iPhone 5 at the flagship 5th Avenue store, demand for the iPhone 5 is higher than any previous launch. We believe the line for the iPhone 5 was 70% greater than the line for the iPhone 4S despite Apple taking 2x as many online pre-orders. The trend of Apple product lines at the flagship store had been decreasing, we believe, due to the company taking a greater number of online pre-orders. For the three total stores we observed with Y/Y comps, the average line was 83% longer. Given the strength of the line for the iPhone 5, we are incrementally more confident in Apple's ability to sell 8 million phones in the launch weekend.



Many third-party retailers are experiencing very low stock of the iPhone 5, resulting in delays in availability even for customers who pre-ordered the device. Availability at Apple's own retail stores appears to be remaining fairly high, although some locations are very low on or completely out of select models. Carrier availability has also generally been fairly good in stores, although Sprint is now running out of stock at its East Coast stores.

Update 11:45 AM: Munster has now released his own results on iPhone 5 customer profiles, painting a very different picture than that seen by White. Munster's survey of 517 iPhone 5 buyers found just 26% of them upgrading from the iPhone 4S, compared to 50% in White's survey. Munster's survey found that 45% of customers were upgrading from the iPhone 4, while White pegged that number at just 11%. Finally, while White's data showed 36% of customers were moving from a non-iPhone, Munster's data put the number closer to 17%, with the vast discrepancies across the board illustrating the unreliability of such surveys.

Article Link: Early iPhone 5 Purchases Trend Toward iPhone 4S Upgraders and Black Models Amid Long Lines
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:23 PM   #2
jbrown
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Excellent!!
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:25 PM   #3
WolfSnap
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I love it when my stock goes up
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:25 PM   #4
b166er
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This is shocking. I feel like its not much of an upgrade from the 4S. Not enough to sign for another two years and pay full price. From a 4 I'd understand.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:25 PM   #5
chazcron
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Describes my experience.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:26 PM   #6
kiantech
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I still find this data nonsense. The people who wait in line are a different breed then people who prefer to have the phone delivered to them.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:26 PM   #7
RoboCop001
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lol 100 people is enough to say that it's a trend?
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:27 PM   #8
cdsfire
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iOS 6

My 4S is slick and smooth on iOS 6. I'm having trouble seeing what the big push from 4S to 5 is for.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:27 PM   #9
brettizzle
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I'm sure a lot of people getting their phone early always get their phone early. So they may upgrade just about every generation and hand down their old iPhone or sell it. That's what I do, except I still have to wait a few weeks before I can upgrade to it from my 4s and give my phone to my mom who has the 4
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:29 PM   #10
Mr Fusion
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Is the factory unlocked model available yet?
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:30 PM   #11
DrFreeman
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36% from non-iphone users.... that is great!
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:30 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by kiantech View Post
I still find this data nonsense. The people who wait in line are a different breed then people who prefer to have the phone delivered to them.
I agree completely. This sample was the most diehard Apple fans that'll endure long lines on launch day. I would bet many of the online orders, especially those that came in late on the 15th and over the weekend were more skewed toward people out of contract that wanted the new phone....but weren't going to great lengths to be first.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:30 PM   #13
Tankmaze
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I also have the 4, can't decide with the color for the 5. I think i'm just gonna buy the ipod touch first.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:31 PM   #14
Hakone
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Well you know the saying: "Once you go black...."
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:31 PM   #15
GuitarDTO
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The AT&T store near me didn't have any 64 gb in black, only a few in white. The verizon store had about 60 phones in total. Seems like stock isn't very high
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:32 PM   #16
nostresshere
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Originally Posted by RoboCop001 View Post
lol 100 people is enough to say that it's a trend?
These numbers are seriously flawed. The come from fanatics that will stand in line to get a phone. Serious group of people, but not representative of the millions and millions that buy phones.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:33 PM   #17
Boatboy24
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"data based on a limited survey of 100 purchasers at Apple retail stores in New York City"

I stopped reading after this...
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:33 PM   #18
technopimp
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As much as I had decided not to get one, I changed my mind since I need something with a better camera. On a whim I went to the local AT&T store at 8:45 this morning. No line, had not pre-ordered, walked out 15 minutes later with a black 16GB. I did get the last black one they had, but they did have more white ones in stock.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:33 PM   #19
CBJammin103
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Originally Posted by kiantech View Post
I still find this data nonsense. The people who wait in line are a different breed then people who prefer to have the phone delivered to them.
This. While these stats don't claim to be "scientific," they're so far from meaningful that it's a bit ridiculous that they're being thrown around.

Should be more like:

"From early adopters who like to wait in long lines in New York City, inconclusive and incomplete information has been gleaned after one man conducts informal poll of 0.01% of all NY buyers - who themselves represent less than 0.01% of the market."
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:33 PM   #20
G4R2
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It isn't very surprising to me nearly half of those who purchased iPhone 5's at retail stores were upgrading from the 4s model. There is a bias in the sampling towards those who are inclined to have the phone immediately and are willing to wait on line for it, perhaps skipping work to do so. That the bias should tilt toward users who may place a high value on owning the latest piece of hardware shouldn't be surprising.

A more complete data set that takes into account all activations over the next month or so may reveal a more balanced picture of the distribution of users who are purchasing the phone.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:35 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b166er View Post
This is shocking. I feel like its not much of an upgrade from the 4S. Not enough to sign for another two years and pay full price. From a 4 I'd understand.
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Originally Posted by cdsfire View Post
My 4S is slick and smooth on iOS 6. I'm having trouble seeing what the big push from 4S to 5 is for.
Software-wise there is not much difference at all, but folks like hardware upgrades because they are new and shiny. If you guys are on the "S Upgrade Cycle" like I am, then you are probably more concerned about missing out on software features. The iPhone 5S will be the big software upgrade to compensate for largely the same hardware (hopefully from a hardware perspective we get fingerprint recognition in the home button for unlocking the phone).

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiantech View Post
I still find this data nonsense. The people who wait in line are a different breed then people who prefer to have the phone delivered to them.
Definitely. Most iPhone 4 owners would have pre-ordered. The iPhone 4S owners were debating and wanting to see the reviews first. Then many of them suffered anxiety of not having the latest iPhone because they saw how good it was going to be. I went through much of this and I just kept telling myself that I did not need to spend the money and that my 4S was a great iPhone. But part of me wanted to go down and stand in line last night and get an iPhone 5. I imagine other people had the same struggle and many of them did cave in and they had to get in line to get one since the pre-orders moved to 3-4 week delays for shipping.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:36 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by cdsfire View Post
My 4S is slick and smooth on iOS 6. I'm having trouble seeing what the big push from 4S to 5 is for.
Oh, its the headphone jack on the bottom.

Just kidding....these folks just want the latest and have the money to throw around to make that happen.

Find it hard to understand as well since the 4S does everything that iOS 6 brings to it, but hey if that's what they want, go for it.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:38 PM   #23
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I would seriously doubt 100 people buying on launch day at Apple retail stores are representative of the buying public.

I would bet many of those individuals showing up on launch day enjoy the launch day experience and atmosphere more than they need a new phone.
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:38 PM   #24
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Can we get the number of people who said "the back is awful!" or "the headphone jack can't be at the bottom" but went ahead and bought it anyway?
lol
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Old Sep 21, 2012, 12:40 PM   #25
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This is shocking. I feel like its not much of an upgrade from the 4S. Not enough to sign for another two years and pay full price. From a 4 I'd understand.
Well I sold my 32gb 4S for $475, and upgrdaded to a 5 32gb with an early upgrade fee for $549 (plus tax).
Sure, it didn't cover the cost completely... but for around $100 I have the latest of iPhone for the next year+. Since it is basically glued to me and my most used item every day, it is well worth it to me.

I think eventually smart developers will make great use of the extra screen space, and visiting this forum a lot, I know I'd feel like I am missing out! Also, LTE is available where I live.

AT&T let me keep my unlimted data (3G soft cap was 3gb before slowing down, LTE cap is 5gb!), and as much as I have my gripes with AT&T I am probably not going anywhere soon. At worse, I lost out on $110 (11 months x $10 per month) of credit towards an ETF fee. No big deal.

I also wanted to get off the "S" cycle. I had a 3GS, so I skipped the 4, then got the 4S. Now I'm back on a regular re-design cycle (but who knows how tempting the 5S will be :-D)

There are worse things I could spend $100 on, by far.
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