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Old Oct 25, 2012, 05:56 PM   #126
mrhick01
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Originally Posted by quickmac View Post
Then when the iPhone is no longer popular, what will happen to Apple then?


Plus it's kind of depressing to see that a computer company barely sells any computers anymore looking at that chart.
15% of all sales for the quarter, about what? $25 billion worth of computers for Fiscal 2012...seems like a lot to me.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 05:57 PM   #127
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91% of that chart is computers.
That is true. Apple sell desktop computers, notebook computers, tablet computers, computers that can make phone calls etc etc.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 05:57 PM   #128
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Also I don't know why it bothers me so much but they REALLY should do something better with their cash hoard, I know having so much money you can't think of a good way to spend it all is a good situation but I think their share price would be higher with a better capital allocation strategy.
Maybe if the stupid US government would allow them to bring this back without ridiculous high taxes they would do something with it.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 05:58 PM   #129
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I get your point and this is true. But anyone would be silly to call $120+ billions in liquid assets "not that much". Even if you factor in taxes and overseas issues.
It's just a matter of perspective. Of course it's a huge sum of money (considering what can be done with it) but not from the perspective of the current price of APPL stock.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 05:59 PM   #130
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Maybe if the stupid US government would allow them to bring this back without ridiculous high taxes they would do something with it.
As I said in one of my previous posts I certainly hope so, saying we'll allow a ~10% tax rate but for every billion you bring in you have to make 1,000 new jobs and keep them for at least 18 months would be a win - win IMO. I'm sure it's not that easy but come on their has to be something they can work out.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:00 PM   #131
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And here is the best quote from the earning call:

Q: What's your relationship with Samsung?

Cook: We continue to have a commercial relationship.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:00 PM   #132
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interesting remarks just made about 7" tablets..

Tim Cook: "We would not make a 7" tablet".

Quote:
A: Comments that Steve had made before about 7" tablets, we would not make a 7" tablet. We don't think they're good products and we would never make one. The difference in the real estate size between 7.9" and 7" is 35%. When you look at usable area, the difference is greater than that. from 50-67%. The iPad mini has the same number of pixels as the iPad 2. You have access to all 275,000 apps that are in our App Store that have been designed to take advantage of the full canvas. iPad mini is a fantastic product and isn't a compromised product like the 7" tablets. It's in a whole different league.

Last edited by Porshuh944turbo; Oct 25, 2012 at 06:07 PM.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:00 PM   #133
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Doesn't that mean the expectations were wrong? They exceeded their guidance as usual. I find it hilarious that a company can miss a target they never set for themselves.
They exceeded their guidance as usual because everyone on the Street knows that Apple lowballs their guidance so they can smash it when earnings are released.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:00 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by Demonofelru View Post
Analyst EPS estimate 8.75 actual 8.67 difference around 1%.
AAPL EPS guidance 7.65 actual 8.67 difference around 13%

Getting within 1% is not easy they were remarkably accurate this quarter, it bugs me that people say analysts are unreasonable when they were, have been and will probably continue to be a lot more accurate then AAPL. It also doesn't matter whether you listen to the analysts or not the market does.

I think it will slowly grind higher short term since it had quite a big correction, and it is far from expensive right now.
Apple guidance estimates are before the quarter. Analyst's estimates are after the quarter. Big difference there.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:01 PM   #135
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i know this wont happen but coukd u imagine if people were to get sick of the iPhone? theyd be screwed!

also "Where is iTunes 11?" - soon could be anything
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:03 PM   #136
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Maybe if the stupid US government would allow them to bring this back without ridiculous high taxes they would do something with it.
Apple does not know what to do with the money they have. Why would they need more? I think government is doing just fine. Once they collect these taxes, perhaps we (US tax payers) will be able to not raise our income taxes.

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Originally Posted by Porshuh944turbo View Post
interesting remarks just made about 7" tablets..

Tim Cook: "We would not make a 7" tablet".
The guy is confused. He forgot they just released 7" tablet.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:04 PM   #137
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Fta

"In addition, customers delay purchases of tablets due to new product rumors. These intensified in August and September. Some was anticipated but some we wished wouldn't occur but it did."

Naughty Naughty MR
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:04 PM   #138
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People who look at Apples cash hoard and think it is getting unreasonable need to understand that a lot of it is overseas.

Money made on products that have no impact of the United States yet the United States government somehow feels entitled to tax it. This is money which has already been taxed.

So no, Apple cannot use that money for *anything* until the United States government gets it head out of its ass.


US based company. Uses public services in the US. It makes no difference where in the world the money was made, these companies should still pay taxes to a government and people they call home. Where is your patriotism?

Full disclosure so you know I'm no anti-business hippie. I have owned and operated my own business. I trade in the open market. I am holding a long position in AAPL. On top of all that, I have no problem with paying taxes to the USA. This country is my home and has given me more than the country my parents are from. Government keeping its head out of business? Pluh-eese! If it weren't for government setting up the infrastructure for these very businesses, none of them would exist, Apple included.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:04 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by BaldiMac View Post
Apple guidance estimates are before the quarter. Analyst's estimates are after the quarter. Big difference there.
Yes but they have WAY more information to make informed estimates then analysts, Also it doesn't matter they are consistently 10 - 20% lower then actual numbers they can get closer if they want. Being ultra conservative is a valid tactics I'd rather them under promise and over deliver then over promise and under deliver. That being said their guidance is so consistently off that no one pays attention to it any more and why analyst predictions is what the benchmark is.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:04 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Porshuh944turbo View Post
interesting remarks just made about 7" tablets..

Tim Cook: "We would not make a 7" tablet".
Yeah He was pretty adamant with that statement. Similar to his feelings about laplets being compromised devices.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:07 PM   #141
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i know this wont happen but coukd u imagine if people were to get sick of the iPhone? theyd be screwed!

also "Where is iTunes 11?" - soon could be anything
What are you talking about? if they sold 0 iphones, they would still be making much more money than all PC OEMs combined. much more.

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Originally Posted by lilo777 View Post
Apple does not know what to do with the money they have. Why would they need more? I think government is doing just fine. Once they collect these taxes, perhaps we (US tax payers) will be able to not raise our income taxes.

----------



The guy is confused. He forgot they just released 7" tablet.
he relesed a 7.9" tablet, huge (35% screen area) difference. the difference between great products and sh**ty products.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:11 PM   #142
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Apple does not know what to do with the money they have. Why would they need more? I think government is doing just fine. Once they collect these taxes, perhaps we (US tax payers) will be able to not raise our income taxes.

It's not the average tax payer, those who make well below $250K annually, that deserve our taxes being raised but those who are very well off, those making the multi-million salaries and beyond, who's taxes should be raised. The middle class and the working poor are suffering because of a tiny, tiny minority of very well off people (the 1% if you will) who scream and buy off politicians, mostly Rethuglicans, because they don't want to pay taxes on so much money that they have no clue what to do with it.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:11 PM   #143
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I honestly believe they (analysts) weren't trying to be conservative they just underestimated demand. But yes it does get some people spooked when they historically beat by so much and last few quarters they have been missing about half their quarters.

Either way I am very bullish still even though the growth seems to have peeked, to me it doesn't matter this isn't MSFT ~2000 with a PE of ~60 when growth slows they probably won't drop to a 5 PE.

In my opinion their biggest challenges are with the market cap so high their is only so much money to invest while many funds have mandatory limits on how much of their portfolio can be be in a single stock. Also I don't know why it bothers me so much but they REALLY should do something better with their cash hoard, I know having so much money you can't think of a good way to spend it all is a good situation but I think their share price would be higher with a better capital allocation strategy.
Analysts are conservative by the nature of their business. They are providing investment advice to their customers so the last thing they want to do is get caught with their shirt tails hanging out. I think this is why the unaffiliated analysts were doing so much better for a time. They aren't responsible to anyone but themselves (and their blogging audience). The interesting development is that the unaffiliated analysts are rapidly losing credibility, partly I expect because the quality of AAPL coverage by the pros is much better than it used to be.

I totally agree on the capital allocation question. It was criminal that Apple avoided paying a dividend for as long as they did, and a crying shame that it isn't more than they are paying now. A steadily building cash mountain raises management questions.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:12 PM   #144
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Welcome back to the 500 club when it re-opens...
I welcome it with open arms (and wallet).
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:12 PM   #145
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I've never seen any CPU's for sale from Apple.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:13 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Demonofelru View Post
Also I don't know why it bothers me so much but they REALLY should do something better with their cash hoard, I know having so much money you can't think of a good way to spend it all is a good situation but I think their share price would be higher with a better capital allocation strategy.
It is not like they have it all sitting around in low yield checking account. Their last balance sheet showed $19B in Short Term Investments, and $89B in Long Term Investments. From their financial statements it is a little hard to tell how big of a return they are getting on those investments. From 2010 to 2011 they went from $25B to $55B in long term investments, after depositing $24B into investments that year. Back of the envelope shows a 24% return on long term investments over that year.

Having a hord of cash is a strategic advantage for Apple that allows them to enter into supplier agreements that others are not able to. This allows Apple to get high quality Flash, and displays at a good price that other companies can not. They can write multi-billion dollar checks to their suppliers to buy up their supply at a low cost.

Last edited by danielwsmithee; Oct 25, 2012 at 06:21 PM.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:14 PM   #147
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Yes but they have WAY more information to make informed estimates then analysts,
No, they don't. Analysts have actual sales information through surveys and supply chain checks to look at during and after the quarter. Apple only has historical information to base its guidance on before the quarter. Their main advantages are in new product release dates and supply issues.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:14 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by lilo777 View Post
And here is the best quote from the earning call:

Q: What's your relationship with Samsung?

Cook: We continue to have a commercial relationship.
I guess that means they aren't planning on eloping.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:14 PM   #149
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So in a sane stock market world of borderline common sense apples market cap is undervalued by 1-2 trillion dollars.
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Old Oct 25, 2012, 06:16 PM   #150
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he relesed a 7.9" tablet, huge (35% screen area) difference. the difference between great products and sh**ty products.
While having physically larger screen, iPad Mini display has much fewer pixels than those inferior Android tablets. So the picture on Android tablets actually delivers much more information than that on iPad Mini. Size matters for certain things too but claiming that there is a clear advantage to iPad Mini format is simply a PR spin on Tim's part. He is just trying to justify ridiculously high price.
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