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Old Nov 10, 2012, 07:09 AM   #1
Jeans89
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Big Bang in iPads next year

It is going to be tremendous, when the too heavy and thick iPad4 gets a lighter and thinner design and the underpowered and low resolution iPad mini gets a decent screen and a powerful chip. Which one you will get at that time?
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 07:47 AM   #2
cardfan
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I don't see the Mini getting a retina screen next year. I'm sure the processor will be bumped.

Here's what retina for the Mini involves: Much faster processor, bigger battery, more weight, thicker design, more expensive screen. It'd cost more to build this than the ipad 4.

Perhaps the tech will arrive that enables Apple to do this. But even if it does, would they? What differentiates a retina Mini from the bigger ipads then? Size? That's not enough. In fact, the Mini would have a better quality screen.

I think Apple is content on having the Mini be the "ipad Air" of the lineup. It's goal will be thin and light. Entry level pricing. And very much non-retina.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 07:50 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
I don't see the Mini getting a retina screen next year. I'm sure the processor will be bumped.

Here's what retina for the Mini involves: Much faster processor, bigger battery, more weight, thicker design, more expensive screen. It'd cost more to build this than the ipad 4.

Perhaps the tech will arrive that enables Apple to do this. But even if it does, would they? What differentiates a retina Mini from the bigger ipads then? Size? That's not enough. In fact, the Mini would have a better quality screen.

I think Apple is content on having the Mini be the "ipad Air" of the lineup. It's goal will be thin and light. Entry level pricing. And very much non-retina.
I highly doubt Apple wants to be known for lower screen resolution on IPad mini vs the competition for longer than the first generation.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:02 AM   #4
cardfan
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Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post
I highly doubt Apple wants to be known for lower screen resolution on IPad mini vs the competition for longer than the first generation.
Perhaps, but it's either that or overkill (2048-by-1536 resolution on a 7.85" screen or 326ppi). Your Nexus 7 or 7" Kindle doesn't exactly have anything near that. The bigger ipad isn't anywhere near that (263ppi).

Do you really see Apple charging 329 for one that would also require their most current processor to run it and be more expensive to build than their 499 ipad?

That's not the Apple we know.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:10 AM   #5
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Perhaps, but it's either that or overkill (2048-by-1536 resolution on a 7.85" screen or 326ppi). Your Nexus 7 or 7" Kindle doesn't exactly have anything near that. The bigger ipad isn't anywhere near that (263ppi).

Do you really see Apple charging 329 for one that would also require their most current processor to run it and be more expensive to build than their 499 ipad?

That's not the Apple we know.
I see them having a base mini and a Mini(r) at a premium price offering
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:16 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
Perhaps, but it's either that or overkill (2048-by-1536 resolution on a 7.85" screen or 326ppi). Your Nexus 7 or 7" Kindle doesn't exactly have anything near that. The bigger ipad isn't anywhere near that (263ppi).

Do you really see Apple charging 329 for one that would also require their most current processor to run it and be more expensive to build than their 499 ipad?

That's not the Apple we know.
The Apple we know also doesnt come late to the party by responding to competition and user demand. Yet here is the iPad Mini.

There's nothing overkill about putting a retina screen on a product that is meant to be read. And as for all this worrying about Apple's profit margins, manufacturing costs etc. These are all (unfounded) justifications for why an iPad Mini with Retina doesnt exist TODAY. But the topic subject is what people expect NEXT YEAR.

The technology for better screens is already here. The processors are already here. Apple has made heavy investments into Sharp. So this idea that Apple won't give a Retina NEXT YEAR just doesnt make sense because, more than ever, Apple needs to prove its still the best and using recycled parts in a fancy shell doesnt work two times in a row.


Anyway, my predictions:
$229 - iPad Mini (Current non-retina version)
$329 - iPad Mini (A6, Retina, NFC)
$399 - iPad4 (Current version)
$499 - iPad5 (New design, NFC)

I feel Apple is in a transition stage now but now that all the products are lined up then things will all sort out and feel normal again. They'll have the $200 cheapo model (that I'd buy my mother) and the high end model with a new redesign (to shift focus back on their flagship iPad).

Last edited by urkel; Nov 10, 2012 at 08:23 AM.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:27 AM   #7
Zcott
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I think what needs to happen next year is the full size iPad adopts the almost-edge-to-edge screen on the iPad mini. Whether they'll keep the same resolution or shrink the size of the device, I'm not sure but it would look fantastic with almost nothing but screen.

I'm expecting to see the Mini go retina at some point, just because of Apple's incessant drive towards all their products being retina.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:48 AM   #8
cardfan
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Originally Posted by urkel View Post
The Apple we know also doesnt come late to the party by responding to competition and user demand. Yet here is the iPad Mini.

There's nothing overkill about putting a retina screen on a product that is meant to be read. And as for all this worrying about Apple's profit margins, manufacturing costs etc. These are all (unfounded) justifications for why an iPad Mini with Retina doesnt exist TODAY. But the topic subject is what people expect NEXT YEAR.

The technology for better screens is already here. The processors are already here. Apple has made heavy investments into Sharp. So this idea that Apple won't give a Retina NEXT YEAR just doesnt make sense because, more than ever, Apple needs to prove its still the best and using recycled parts in a fancy shell doesnt work two times in a row.


Anyway, my predictions:
$229 - iPad Mini (Current non-retina version)
$329 - iPad Mini (A6, Retina, NFC)
$399 - iPad4 (Current version)
$499 - iPad5 (New design, NFC)

I feel Apple is in a transition stage now but now that all the products are lined up then things will all sort out and feel normal again. They'll have the $200 cheapo model (that I'd buy my mother) and the high end model with a new redesign (to shift focus back on their flagship iPad).
What do you mean it doesn't work 2 years in a row? It's worked for the Macbook Air. That product has stayed the same besides getting faster. I expect the same for the Mini for the next few generations. If anything they'll lower the price as scale drives cost down.

Again, explain how they'll sell bigger ipads at their current prices while at the same time selling a just as fast Mini with a better quality screen that costs more to make?

I don't see Apple going with a premium ipad mini while keeping a basic version which is what you're assuming.

Last edited by cardfan; Nov 10, 2012 at 08:56 AM.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:59 AM   #9
noteple
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Trends
Cost reduced manufacturing
Honor price points
Thinner
Lighter
Faster
Longer battery life
Smaller screen bezels
Minimum of HD resolution across all product moving toward 4k
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 09:04 AM   #10
cardfan
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Originally Posted by noteple View Post
Trends
Cost reduced manufacturing
Honor price points
Thinner
Lighter
Faster
Longer battery life
Smaller screen bezels
Minimum of HD resolution across all product moving toward 4k
That's cute and all but not next year cute.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 09:26 AM   #11
rowspaxe
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teh mini is already a hit and apple will commit to the new size by blessing a new ipad resolution--this will pain developers, but only slightly as the istore pie continues to grow. So yes to some form of retina next year for the mini. Also, a good bet mini outsells the larger ipad in 2013. I neither like nor understand the mini appeal, but this size is taking off
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 09:36 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urkel View Post
Anyway, my predictions:
$229 - iPad Mini (Current non-retina version)
$329 - iPad Mini (A6, Retina, NFC)
$399 - iPad4 (Current version)
$499 - iPad5 (New design, NFC)
Those sound like reasonable predictions to me.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 09:51 AM   #13
tann
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If apple ever shift the iPad to 16x9 they'll do it in 2014 (I believe) and that would bring a 300+ ppi 9.7" iPad. Either way I think we'll see an even higher res iPad screen in the next 2 years. I don't see the point, but I think we will...

I still don't see them improving battery/screen tech enough by next year to fit a retina screen into something as small as a mini, but boy i hope I'm wrong.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 10:22 AM   #14
yegon
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If apple ever shift the iPad to 16x9
I'm optimistic Apple will never do this. 16:9 is a bad ratio on large tablets. Good for one thing only, video. Everything else, unwieldy in portrait, proportionally too wide in landscape for almost everything.

You could argue 16:9 is better for games, but I think that only really matters on pc's and consoles. On a tablet, meh, 4:3 is fine for games.

I still believe the only reason the iPhone 5 is 16:9 is that its too early* for 1920x1280 4"ish screens, and it kept apps easily compliant.

*1920x1080 small screens do exist, but they're hardly ready for prime time and the volume Apple would need.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 11:03 AM   #15
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If the Mini update is the same time as this years release we will see retina on it. The cost of A6 will also be less due to the large amount being manufactured for iPhone 5 and 4th Gen iPad. iPad should get a remodel based on the Mini looks.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 11:19 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
Perhaps, but it's either that or overkill (2048-by-1536 resolution on a 7.85" screen or 326ppi). Your Nexus 7 or 7" Kindle doesn't exactly have anything near that. The bigger ipad isn't anywhere near that (263ppi).

Do you really see Apple charging 329 for one that would also require their most current processor to run it and be more expensive to build than their 499 ipad?

That's not the Apple we know.
I think battery life while not making the mini thicker and heavier is more of the problem. For the retina screen, all they would have to due is cut out a bigger iPhone 4/4S/5 screen. Just like right now, they cut out a bigger iPhone 3GS screen. So economy of scales, I don't think it will cost as much as we think. Thee real challenge is they can't afford to make it heavier in the 2nd gen.They did with big iPad but I just don't they can get away with it with the Mini, otherwise it defeats the purpose of having a Mini.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 11:27 AM   #17
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That's cute and all but not next year cute.
You can mix and match features.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 11:42 AM   #18
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You really are flying blind if you make statements to the negative of Retina without knowing what hardware will be available.

Battery requirements are influenced by the sum consumption of parts and next year should see a further reduction in semiconductor geometries and more integration.

In many ways I think the $329 is being done to give Apple some pricing flexibility when the inevitable more expensive panels start being cut. If you've conditioned consumers to think that the mini is $330 then adding retina can be done at the same price or, if the economies of scale favor, a drop to sub $300.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 11:50 AM   #19
Awakener
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Originally Posted by bigboar View Post
I see them having a base mini and a Mini(r) at a premium price offering
iPad Mini was priced high out of the gate to prepare for the eventual addition of retina display. This means little or no additional cost for retina version.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 02:47 PM   #20
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iPad Mini was priced high out of the gate to prepare for the eventual addition of retina display. This means little or no additional cost for retina version.
The iPad mini is not priced high. It is priced just as all other Apple products are priced. There is no "spare" margin for higher-cost retina displays, and their initial margin is lower than the corporate average.

They are hoping that cost reductions, namely in the touch sensor, will drop over the lifetime of the product to return the mini to normal margins. But there is absolutely no padding for a retina display built in.

They will cross the pricing bridge once the components exist in volume. But any increase in parts cost will correspond to a decrease of an already compromised margin, which is not particularly likely. It is much more likely that a retina iPad mini will be launched as an upgrade to the line, just like the LTE models, if they ultimately go with a 326ppi display.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 03:30 PM   #21
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Apple, please drop the damn iPad 2 and bring a high end Mini with Retina and A6 processor for $399.
This is what I would offer at the entry level price.

iPad Mini $299
iPad Mini Retina/A6 $399
iPad 4 Retina $499
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 03:40 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by nuckinfutz View Post
You really are flying blind if you make statements to the negative of Retina without knowing what hardware will be available.

Battery requirements are influenced by the sum consumption of parts and next year should see a further reduction in semiconductor geometries and more integration.

In many ways I think the $329 is being done to give Apple some pricing flexibility when the inevitable more expensive panels start being cut. If you've conditioned consumers to think that the mini is $330 then adding retina can be done at the same price or, if the economies of scale favor, a drop to sub $300.
So a retina mini may be dependent on building the SoC (A6rev 2?) on TSMC's 20nm process? Moving from the current 32nm to 20nm could reduce SoC power consumption to the point that the additional power required by the retina screen becomes a wash. I believe the latest rumor is that 20nm SoC's could be in production by late 2013.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 03:47 PM   #23
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So a retina mini may be dependent on building the SoC (A6rev 2?) on TSMC's 20nm process? Moving from the current 32nm to 20nm could reduce SoC power consumption to the point that the additional power required by the retina screen becomes a wash. I believe the latest rumor is that 20nm SoC's could be in production by late 2013.
Throw an IGZO display in there too and you'll really have some power savings, maybe making it even thinner and/or lighter.
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 04:11 PM   #24
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And I bet the year after they'll be better, and the year after even better. Wow, we have a psychic in our midst to have all this foresight, hehe
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Old Nov 10, 2012, 04:13 PM   #25
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So a retina mini may be dependent on building the SoC (A6rev 2?) on TSMC's 20nm process? Moving from the current 32nm to 20nm could reduce SoC power consumption to the point that the additional power required by the retina screen becomes a wash. I believe the latest rumor is that 20nm SoC's could be in production by late 2013.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeyestar View Post
Throw an IGZO display in there too and you'll really have some power savings, maybe making it even thinner and/or lighter.
This is what I'm hoping for ... and hopefully a further reduction in bezel size.
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