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Old Dec 25, 2012, 12:53 AM   #1
gladoscc
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Why an iPad 5 in March makes sense.

The majority of people who brought the iPad 3 didn't buy the iPad 4. Maybe they picked up the iPad mini, maybe not.

If they *don't* release the iPad 5 in March, then their Q1 and Q2 sales will be utterly disappointing and Apple stock will drop to $300 or $200. Also, people who brought the iPad 3 will have to wait until later to upgrade.

There's also always the people who want to have the latest and the greatest (trixie), so Apple milks more money off them and the iPad 3 owners.

Meanwhile, expect a iPad Mini 2 in late 2013.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 01:10 AM   #2
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Okay. I think your figures on just how many DID buy the 4 are a little off, but forget about that a second, and tell us what spec. you would expect a March release to be? New A...XXX? CPU's are not yet available so a minor bump is all they could really do in March. I hope they don't. And yep, I did buy the 4.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 01:14 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by gladoscc View Post
If they *don't* release the iPad 5 in March, then their Q1 and Q2 sales will be utterly disappointing and Apple stock will drop to $300 or $200.
How are you not working for Soros' hedge fund with your impeccable equity valuation skills ?!?!
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 01:30 AM   #4
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Apple stock is dropping regardless.

Release Ipad 5 in March will also drive away long time loyal apple fanclubs.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 01:42 AM   #5
irDigital0l
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The iPad was always a March release.

But Apple wanted to get the iPad mini into the holiday shopping season to compete with Android tablets like the Nexus 7 by offering a cheaper iPad.

It would have just made the iPad 3 look outdated if the iPad Mini had better specs than it (Lightening connector, FaceTime HD camera, better LTE, etc.)

iPad Mini with Retina display and iPad 5 coming in March.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 03:11 AM   #6
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The obvious improvements for a March release are thinner, faster, lighter and maybe longer battery life. Speculative improvements would be a better digitizer, camera and perhaps NFC. If you've been reading Horace Dediu for a while you'll understand that Apple needs to make good improvements, but not spectacular improvements. This could be the start of Apple releasing new product every six months. If so. That would be awesome. Quite a sight to behold.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 07:04 AM   #7
thewitt
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I don't think we will see NFC in the iPad. It will be tied to Passbook, which is an iPhone only app.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 07:55 AM   #8
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[QUOTE=irDigital0l;16551250]The iPad was always a March release.

But Apple wanted to get the iPad mini into the holiday shopping season to compete with Android tablets like the Nexus 7 by offering a cheaper iPad.

It would have just made the iPad 3 look outdated if the iPad Mini had better specs than it (Lightening connector, FaceTime HD camera, better LTE, etc.)

iPad Mini with Retina display and iPad 5 coming in March.

Nope, even if it were possible the current Mini is selling too well.

I agree an ipad5 will be a lighter and thinner version of the current bigger brothers and a good bet a March release since the Mini is killing larger ipad sales.

I'd bet many would return the Mini if they smelled one with Retina was coming in March. And don't you think there would be plenty of ticked off current Mini owners? NO WAY Apple will do this!

Yes, they released a 4th gen sooner than usual BUT it was not a big upgrade to the 3rd gen which contributed to slower sales.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 09:21 AM   #9
WilliamLondon
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Originally Posted by irDigital0l View Post
But Apple wanted to get the iPad mini into the holiday shopping season to compete with Android tablets like the Nexus 7 by offering a cheaper iPad.
The more times you say this doesn't make it more right. The mini is a smaller version of the iPad, not a cheaper version. They maximised smaller not cheaper with the product. It's smaller, not cheaper. It's targeting a market that wants smaller, not cheaper - cheaper is for Nexus 7, B&N Nook and others like them.

They are not moving to a 6 month refresh cycle. Either Apple has to give up its profit margins to do so, or the prices on all the products go up. To implement a new feature costs them money, which because they have long refresh cycles, the cost of these new features is spread among a year's worth of product sales. If they move to a 1/2 yearly refresh cycle, they still have to pay for those new features to be implemented, but now the cost is spread over 1/2 the number of units sold, meaning their profit margins go down on a 1/2 yearly cycle. Apple is all about profit margins, they will not move to a 1/2 yearly cycle, and that's just one reason.

Last edited by WilliamLondon; Dec 25, 2012 at 09:33 AM.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 09:46 AM   #10
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The mini is a smaller version of the iPad, not a cheaper version. They maximised smaller not cheaper with the product. It's smaller, not cheaper.
Mini $329
iPad 2 $399
iPad 4 $499

It's a cheaper iPad.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 09:50 AM   #11
yinz
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Maybe it's an apology to the iPad 3 buyers...
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 09:51 AM   #12
WilliamLondon
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Originally Posted by darngooddesign View Post
Mini $329
iPad 2 $399
iPad 4 $499

It's a cheaper iPad.
You state the obvious, but miss the point entirely.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 09:54 AM   #13
darngooddesign
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Originally Posted by yinz View Post
Maybe it's an apology to the iPad 3 buyers...
If you get your feelings hurt because the iPad got updated, your parents gave you too many "participation ribbons".

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
You state the obvious, but miss the point entirely.
The point IS that the Mini is a cheaper iPad. Please argue that it's a more expensive iPad.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 10:38 AM   #14
WilliamLondon
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Originally Posted by darngooddesign View Post
The point IS that the Mini is a cheaper iPad. Please argue that it's a more expensive iPad.
You parse my words when I was making a point and then claim to be correct, ignoring my point entirely. If you want to argue the point I was making, do so, but I'm not interested in this other folly.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 10:41 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
You parse my words when I was making a point and then claim to be correct, ignoring my point entirely. If you want to argue the point I was making, do so, but I'm not interested in this other folly.
You said it's smaller, not cheaper. It is cheaper and smaller.

How is it not cheaper?
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 10:46 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by darngooddesign View Post
You said it's smaller, not cheaper. It is cheaper and smaller.

How is it not cheaper?
As I said, I'm not going to play this little game.

If you really didn't understand the point I was making (because I've been engaged with this other person to whom I was replying and perhaps assumed some prior information), I apologise, but I was making a point and now you're trying to claim my point was something it was not, and asking me to defend it. What would be the point of that, other than to allow you to claim victory in some silly little game?
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 11:13 AM   #17
Piccio
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I'm skeptical about March, they will lose any credibility releasing another iPad after 4/5 months.

And what do you expect? IZGO display? even better cpu/gpu? more ram? etc. with no competition?

In that case it will be just the actual iPad 4, thinner and lighter, and then be ready for an iPad 6 with bigger upgrades for fall 2013.

I think, that they've lost sales on the 10 inches because of the Mini, smaller but not too much and cheaper that stole some of 10" market and almost killed the 7" tablet competition.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 11:21 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
You state the obvious, but miss the point entirely.
The iPad Mini pricing is part of its sales success. I doubt many would've gotten it over the iPad 4 if they costed the same.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 11:22 AM   #19
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You state the obvious, but miss the point entirely.
oh, it's smaller and cheaper...resolution-check, processor-check, ram-check....if it had the same specs of the 4 I would agree it is smaller but not cheaper. The lower specs are why it's cheaper though as it would have costed as much or more than the 4. it is the budget line of iPads....
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 11:28 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by darngooddesign View Post
You said it's smaller, not cheaper. It is cheaper and smaller.

How is it not cheaper?
cheap {adjective}

3 a : of inferior quality or worth : tawdry, sleazy <cheap workmanship>


Using this definition of CHEAP, the iPad Mini is NOT CHEAPER, it is LESS EXPENSIVE. Words can have more than one meaning. This is what WilliamLondon was trying to say. Don't be stupid.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 11:34 AM   #21
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I think Apple will update the iPad bi-annually from now on. Considering the competition, an annual update nowadays isn't enough and this will stop the drop in sales prior to a new major release and stabilize sales that way. So March/October releases, similar to the schedule Macs run.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 01:02 PM   #22
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I think Apple will update the iPad bi-annually from now on. Considering the competition, an annual update nowadays isn't enough and this will stop the drop in sales prior to a new major release and stabilize sales that way. So March/October releases, similar to the schedule Macs run.
Competition? What competition?


The ipad4 was released November 2nd, why would apple release a new iPad just 4months later? Apple doesn't make it's money worring about what other people are doing. Updating more frequently isn't making me want the new devices more.

I upgrade every other generation with my android and iOS devices. I have too many to upgrade every 6 months.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 02:02 PM   #23
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They'd be a whole lot better off making updates to iOS than the hardware.

That's what's really getting a bit stale.
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 02:25 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
The more times you say this doesn't make it more right. The mini is a smaller version of the iPad, not a cheaper version. They maximised smaller not cheaper with the product. It's smaller, not cheaper. It's targeting a market that wants smaller, not cheaper - cheaper is for Nexus 7, B&N Nook and others like them.
Your making less sense as you go...lol

How is not a cheaper version? Your paying $330 for the iPad Mini compared to $500 for the iPad. Apple always charges "Apple's premium tax" on its products. So even if you don't think Apple is targeting the smaller, cheaper Android market, it is. If Apple didn't feel the threat of smaller, cheaper Android tablets then it wouldn't have made the iPad mini. It already had a the iPad 2 $100 than the iPad 3.[/QUOTE]

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by felch View Post
Competition? What competition?
That fact that Apple had most marketshare and is going to loose that place.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8B40O920121205
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Old Dec 25, 2012, 03:00 PM   #25
HishamAkhtar
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Competition? What competition?


The ipad4 was released November 2nd, why would apple release a new iPad just 4months later? Apple doesn't make it's money worring about what other people are doing. Updating more frequently isn't making me want the new devices more.

I upgrade every other generation with my android and iOS devices. I have too many to upgrade every 6 months.
New Kindle Fire HD, new Nexus 10, Samsung, Surface? The iPhone 4 had no competition and then Apple got swamped by Android. The point isn't that you buy a new device every 4 months. The point is that updates should occur when the components are ready, not wait until every holiday season for a new update.
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