Go Back   MacRumors Forums > Mac Community > Community Discussion > Politics, Religion, Social Issues

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old Dec 27, 2012, 11:14 PM   #26
citizenzen
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
I think China wants Japan and Taiwan.
Why? What would they do with them?
citizenzen is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 27, 2012, 11:17 PM   #27
G51989
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NYC NY/Pittsburgh PA
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
Why? What would they do with them?
Not Japan so much, but I could see the Chinese wanting it at some point in the future. Lots of hard feelings still left from WW2.

And China considers Taiwan to be part of China, if it were not for the US, they would have already invaded it.
G51989 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 27, 2012, 11:30 PM   #28
throAU
macrumors 68030
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Won't happen.

China has no need to go to war, they are an economic powerhouse and can just buy people out.

Unless Japan starts it, but that would be..... foolish (nay, suicidal).
__________________
MBP (early 2011) - Core i7 2720 2.2ghz, Hires Glossy, 16GB, Seagate Momentus XT 750GB
Mac Mini (mid 2007) - Core2 Duo 1.8, 2gb, 320gb 7200 rpm
iPhone 4S, iPad 4, iPad Mini, HTC One (eval)
throAU is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 12:29 AM   #29
TSE
macrumors 68030
 
TSE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: St. Paul, Minnesota
Quote:
Originally Posted by smithrh View Post
Saber-rattling.

Of note, Hugh White has a book out on this very topic.

Jeez, what a coincidence. Wonder if the sales of the book were lagging.
I hope not. Stirring this much controversy up would be quite pathetic.

And I also hope China, Japan, Taiwan, whomever don't go to war. I really hate innocent people suffering.
__________________
MacBook Pro, 2.2ghz Quad-Core i7 Processor, 15" 1680x1050 Anti-Glare LCD, 16gbs of RAM, 500gb Samsung 840 evo SSD, AMD Radeon 6750M HD, Mac OS X + Windows 7 Ultimate
TSE is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 01:55 AM   #30
Renzatic
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Who puts the washers in the woods?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
Probably true, but I don't think the US could win such a war either.

Either both sides will use Nukes, and then we all lose, or it will be a draw.
In a war between the US and China, it wouldn't be a matter of who wins, rather who loses the least. Any victory pulled out of the resulting cluster**** would be pyrrhic at best.

China would exhaust a huge amount of their resources fighting a naval battle against, as GS said, one of the world's most technologically advanced armies. And even if they did manage to break through on pure numbers, they'd have to fight a land battle against one of the richest, best fortified nations in the world. Millions would die, China's economy would collapse along with the rest of the worlds, they'd likely have another cultural revolution in the midst of it all.

And what about us? We might have the technology on our side, but China isn't exactly a slouch in comparison. Not only that, but their combined military force dwarfs ours. Supposing we beat them out at sea, what do we do then? Invade? Think about how much Iraq strained us. Landing a force in China and supporting it would break the country in two. Millions would die, our economy would collapse along with the rest of the worlds, and the end result would likely dissolve the nation.

What about Europe? Do you think they'd just sit by and play neutral as two of the mightiest military strengths go head to head? Of course not. Like it or not, the US is one of the keystones of the world economy. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, a standing, strong US is better for them than a broken one being ruled over by China. If we fall, they'd likely enter into a depression that'd make the 30's look like party city. It'd take decades for them to climb out of it, and they wouldn't come out the other side anywhere close to unscathed. Not only that, but they now have an overly aggressive superpower breathing down their necks on two fronts.

We'd at least have England, Germany, and France throwing in their gauntlet for the US. China would have to face the combined military might of nearly the entire western world if they decide to go to war with us.

And of course they'd have to contend with Japan, the ANZACs, and South Korea right on their borders.

Israel? They'll likely be fighting their own bloody conflict in the midst of our much bigger one. It wouldn't surprise me if every capable mideastern country decided to seize the day and take advantage of the situation to launch their own wars with Israel. The west is a bit preoccupied. Who's gonna stop them?

And lets not forget Russia and all the surrounding satellite nations. Who knows what the hell they'll do. They're as likely to side with the west as they are China, or just decide to sit it out entirely. They're a very dangerous wild card no one can completely rely upon.

In short, there will be no winners among the superpowers. Like someone mentioned above, it'd be like World War 1 all over again. A complete restructuring of the political stage, where the old standard is swept aside, and everyone else teeters along for 30 years until another fills in the void.

...which won't be China or the US, because, win or lose, they won't exist as we currently know them.
Renzatic is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 02:02 AM   #31
ChristianJapan
macrumors Demi-God
 
ChristianJapan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: 日本
I would more worry that the new PM want to restart or build nuclear plants in a country under high risk for disaster.
As for war ? I grown up in Berlin ... US and Russia nose to nose. Lots noise but both side knew each other well. No direct confrontation beside Cuba.

Same with China and Japan/US. There is lots of noise. Both governments need it to calm down internal issues. But I don't expect any war.
Of course it can happen that due to some "accident" the one or other smaller ship will sink around the Sangaku islands. Same reactions as between south and North Korea; but I'm confident it would not escalate.

China, US and Japan need/depend on each other.
__________________
Member of MacRumors.com Folding@Home Team (#3446) & developer of the F@H Mobile Monitoring app.
ChristianJapan is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 02:06 AM   #32
Renzatic
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Who puts the washers in the woods?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristianJapan View Post

China, US and Japan need/depend on each other.
This is my ultimate take on it. China isn't stupid. They know the cost of a skirmish that could very easily escalate into a full blown war.

Every side involved will rattle their sabers, puff up their chests, and attempt to save face. But that's the extent of it. Eventually they'll all come to a begrudging agreement, and things will continue on as usual.
Renzatic is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 03:22 AM   #33
Eraserhead
macrumors G4
 
Eraserhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
Israel? They'll likely be fighting their own bloody conflict in the midst of our much bigger one. It wouldn't surprise me if every capable mideastern country decided to seize the day and take advantage of the situation to launch their own wars with Israel. The west is a bit preoccupied. Who's gonna stop them?
The Israelis? Like last time?

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
And China considers Taiwan to be part of China, if it were not for the US, they would have already invaded it.
Lets face it the Indians already invaded places like Goa which weren't part of India as a whole, so there's a precedent for large countries to do such things, and I agree that China might well do it.

That said who cares in Taiwan is part of China or not? I'm not really convinced the Taiwanese care one way or the other.
__________________
If they have to tell you every day they are fair you can bet they arent, if they tell you they are balanced then you should know they are not - Don't Hurt me
Eraserhead is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 08:40 AM   #34
skunk
macrumors Demi-God
 
skunk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Republic of Ukistan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
That said who cares in Taiwan is part of China or not? I'm not really convinced the Taiwanese care one way or the other.
To the mainland Chinese it's just a renegade province anyway.
__________________
"The louder he talked of his honor, the faster we counted the spoons." -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
skunk is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 08:41 AM   #35
thewitt
macrumors 68000
 
thewitt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
That said who cares in Taiwan is part of China or not? I'm not really convinced the Taiwanese care one way or the other.
You are greatly misinformed if this is what you believe.
thewitt is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 10:08 AM   #36
Eraserhead
macrumors G4
 
Eraserhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Quote:
Originally Posted by thewitt View Post
You are greatly misinformed if this is what you believe.
As far as I can tell only a relatively small minority of Taiwanese explicitly want independence, and most of them like the status quo.

Given the deal the Chinese have offered is essentially two systems one country ala Hong Kong and Macau I'm not really sure the Taiwanese care particularly one way or another.
__________________
If they have to tell you every day they are fair you can bet they arent, if they tell you they are balanced then you should know they are not - Don't Hurt me
Eraserhead is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 10:28 AM   #37
G51989
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NYC NY/Pittsburgh PA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
As far as I can tell only a relatively small minority of Taiwanese explicitly want independence, and most of them like the status quo.
I think you need to look into this a little more, would you prefer to live in a mostly free society, or convert into a totalitarian police state like china? I highly doubt china would keep their end of the bargain up in any kind of " deal ", I don't trust the Chinese for a second.

I've been to Taiwan, several times. You'll be hard pressed to find anyone who would want to be part of China. I don't blame them, China is an awful place.
G51989 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 10:30 AM   #38
Eraserhead
macrumors G4
 
Eraserhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
I think you need to look into this a little more, would you prefer to live in a mostly free society, or convert into a totalitarian police state like china?
Hong Kong's a "totalitarian police state"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
I highly doubt china would keep their end of the bargain up in any kind of " deal "
Er, why wouldn't they keep their deal?
__________________
If they have to tell you every day they are fair you can bet they arent, if they tell you they are balanced then you should know they are not - Don't Hurt me
Eraserhead is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 10:52 AM   #39
VulchR
macrumors 68000
 
VulchR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Scotland
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
....
There's some trivial island they both claim. Frankly the entire matter is ridiculous - it makes the Falklands look like a reasonable conflict as at least some people actually live there.
The effort to liberate the Falklands from a dictatorial invader was both legitimate and reasonable. The UK absolutely did the right thing in recapturing the islands, and even the people of Argentina benefited by the revelation of how weak their junta actually was.

In any case, getting back to the thread, let us hope that the Chinese are as pragmatic as the USSR used to be. Like most people I worry about China's potential conflicts with Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines over territorial disputes. However, I just can't see any of those countries rocking their own economic boat in order to pursue some sort of nonsensical expansionist agenda.
__________________
My first was a Mac+. Now I own an iPhone with 3.5x the pixels, a colour display, WiFi, 512x the RAM, >1500x the data storage, and 100x the speed. And it fits in the palm of my hand.
VulchR is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 10:58 AM   #40
citizenzen
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
I don't trust the Chinese for a second.
Sounds like you have a personal problem with them.

Can you explain why you "don't trust the Chinese for a second"?
citizenzen is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:07 AM   #41
G51989
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NYC NY/Pittsburgh PA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
In a war between the US and China, it wouldn't be a matter of who wins, rather who loses the least. Any victory pulled out of the resulting cluster**** would be pyrrhic at best.
It would not be a full on war, it would a " defend china and japan " kinda thing, where its about naval power, and air power, something the US can win hands down, there would be no invasion.

Quote:
China would exhaust a huge amount of their resources fighting a naval battle against, as GS said, one of the world's most technologically advanced armies
The US army wouldn't have to worry about that, all the Navy needs to do is defend Japan, and probably Tiawan, which is easy. Considering the Chinese Navy ( PLAN ) is about 30 years behind the USN. PLAN would be out numbered 5-1, and be hopelessly out gunned, it would be suicide, I think China is smart enough to know not to even try it.

Quote:
And even if they did manage to break through on pure numbers, they'd have to fight a land battle against one of the richest, best fortified nations in the world. Millions would die
In the event of this type of war, all the USN and USAF would have to do is knock out chinese infrastructure, an easy feat. Sure, China has some good newer planes, none of which are battle tested however, and the vast majority of their Air Force is still 60s level garbage.

Quote:
China's economy would collapse along with the rest of the worlds, they'd likely have another cultural revolution in the midst of it all.
The world might Stall, but it won't collapse.

Quote:
And what about us? We might have the technology on our side, but China isn't exactly a slouch in comparison.
This would be a naval battle, and an air battle over oceans, China is a slouch in comparison. Its all about sub and air power, they lack both. China loves to talk the talk on new equipment, but they never prove that it works.

Quote:
ot only that, but their combined military force dwarfs ours.
In sheer numbers, yes on the ground mostly. Their air force is large, but mostly made up of old junk. They really have not modernized yet on any huge scale.

Quote:
Supposing we beat them out at sea, what do we do then? Invade?
There is no supposing, PLAN would be on the bottom of the sea in short order, and no. No invasion.

Quote:
Think about how much Iraq strained us. Landing a force in China and supporting it would break the country in two. Millions would die, our economy would collapse along with the rest of the worlds, and the end result would likely dissolve the nation.
Iraq strained us because we had to be nice about it, its nothing carpet bombing couldn't have fixed. Then again, we should have never been there.

Quote:
What about Europe?
Europe cannot project military power on any level without the help of the US. The only European power with any form of power projection is France. I don't even think the Royal navy has the ability to get ships out there and support them on its own.

Quote:
We'd at least have England, Germany, and France throwing in their gauntlet for the US. China would have to face the combined military might of nearly the entire western world if they decide to go to war with us.
As pointed out, Germany and England don't really have anything to contribute in a war like this, only France. It has the best navy in Europe. And I doubt we would even need it to defend Japan.

Quote:
And of course they'd have to contend with Japan, the ANZACs, and South Korea right on their borders.
Which is why I don't think it will never happen.

Quote:
Israel? They'll likely be fighting their own bloody conflict in the midst of our much bigger one. It wouldn't surprise me if every capable mideastern country decided to seize the day and take advantage of the situation to launch their own wars with Israel. The west is a bit preoccupied. Who's gonna stop them?
Again, no power projection.

Quote:
And lets not forget Russia and all the surrounding satellite nations. Who knows what the hell they'll do. They're as likely to side with the west as they are China, or just decide to sit it out entirely. They're a very dangerous wild card no one can completely rely upon.
They will most likely sit it out, or go organist China, China is a threat to the Russians. Japan and the west are not.

Quote:
In short, there will be no winners among the superpowers. Like someone mentioned above, it'd be like World War 1 all over again. A complete restructuring of the political stage, where the old standard is swept aside, and everyone else teeters along for 30 years until another fills in the void.
Assuming it didn't go Nuclear, China is not a military threat to the US, they would have to cross oceans.

Its all about power projection, the USA is literally the only country on the planet that can do it at any large level.
G51989 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:08 AM   #42
citizenzen
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by VulchR View Post
The effort to liberate the Falklands from a dictatorial invader was both legitimate and reasonable. The UK absolutely did the right thing in recapturing the islands, and even the people of Argentina benefited by the revelation of how weak their junta actually was.
From your perspective perhaps.

From my American perspective it seemed like a big unnecessary pissing match that should never have occurred or escalated to the point that it did.

Personally, I side with the Argentine claims to the island.
citizenzen is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:11 AM   #43
G51989
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NYC NY/Pittsburgh PA
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
Sounds like you have a personal problem with them.

Can you explain why you "don't trust the Chinese for a second"?
Not with the Chinese people, but I don't trust a society that kills 80 million or so of its own people in the past 60 years.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
Hong Kong's a "totalitarian police state"?


This would not be a Hong Kong Situation. At all, China has every intention to take Taiwan by force.

Quote:
Er, why wouldn't they keep their deal?
Why would they? I don't see a reason to trust the Chinese.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristianJapan View Post
China, US and Japan need/depend on each other.
Thats something the world needs to get away from, is China. Because its going to collapse under its own weight in 20 or so years.
G51989 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:12 AM   #44
citizenzen
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
Not with the Chinese people, but I don't trust a society that kills 80 million or so of its own people in the past 60 years.
So you shouldn't trust Germans then.

Or Russians.
citizenzen is online now   1 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:16 AM   #45
Eraserhead
macrumors G4
 
Eraserhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
Not with the Chinese people, but I don't trust a society that kills 80 million or so of its own people in the past 60 years.
All of the "80 million" died under Mao and the vast majority died in the Great Leap Forward. That was a long time ago...

Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
This would not be a Hong Kong Situation. At all, China has every intention to take Taiwan by force.
The whole point of the Hong Kong and Macau SAR's is as a prototype for Taiwan. I also doubt they really want to take it by force, if they were going to do that they'd have done so long ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
Why would they?
Because they'd face widespread rebellion if they don't. Additionally they'd look pretty stupid for not following through with their agreed plan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
Thats something the world needs to get away from, is China. Because its going to collapse under its own weight in 20 or so years.
Why on earth would that happen? China has been a country for 2000 years and a civilisation for 5000 years, it hardly seems likely to collapse now.

Its far more likely that much newer countries like Italy, the US etc. etc. will collapse, but if I claimed they were definitely going to collapse under their own weight I'd be seen as pushing bizarre conspiracy theories.
__________________
If they have to tell you every day they are fair you can bet they arent, if they tell you they are balanced then you should know they are not - Don't Hurt me
Eraserhead is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:18 AM   #46
VulchR
macrumors 68000
 
VulchR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Scotland
Sorry off topic....

Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
From your perspective perhaps.

From my American perspective it seemed like a big unnecessary pissing match that should never have occurred or escalated to the point that it did.

Personally, I side with the Argentine claims to the island.
I am American. I was watched the war from my dorm in Virginia, and I was deeply ashamed the US wasn't more forceful and overt in assisting our NATO ally against outright aggression by a military dictatorship. Reagan was a unprincipled coward in this regard. The Falklands should remain British as long as the Falklanders wish it. Any other course of action would be undemocratic.
__________________
My first was a Mac+. Now I own an iPhone with 3.5x the pixels, a colour display, WiFi, 512x the RAM, >1500x the data storage, and 100x the speed. And it fits in the palm of my hand.
VulchR is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:19 AM   #47
Eraserhead
macrumors G4
 
Eraserhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
Personally, I side with the Argentine claims to the island.
To be fair the Argentina doesn't really have a legitimate claim. The claim is inherited from some Spanish settlers that the British allegedly kicked out in the early 19th century, and the Spanish haven't ruled Argentina since that time.

The only sensible part of the Argentinian claim is geographic proximity.
__________________
If they have to tell you every day they are fair you can bet they arent, if they tell you they are balanced then you should know they are not - Don't Hurt me
Eraserhead is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:21 AM   #48
G51989
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NYC NY/Pittsburgh PA
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
So you shouldn't trust Germans then.

Or Russians.
I don't trust them ( the country, not the people. I have no personal issues with anyone living in any country ), they are the biggest political wild card outside of North Korea, you never know what they'll do.
G51989 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:22 AM   #49
Eraserhead
macrumors G4
 
Eraserhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Quote:
Originally Posted by G51989 View Post
they are the biggest political wild card outside of North Korea, you never know what they'll do.
What's that based on?
__________________
If they have to tell you every day they are fair you can bet they arent, if they tell you they are balanced then you should know they are not - Don't Hurt me
Eraserhead is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:28 AM   #50
G51989
In Time-Out
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NYC NY/Pittsburgh PA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
All of the "80 million" died under Mao and the vast majority died in the Great Leap Forward. That was a long time ago...
Not, all lots did. But you still have the issues of a lack of free society, re education, and forced labor camps, people getting run over by tanks....great government.

Quote:
The whole point of the Hong Kong and Macau SAR's is as a prototype for Taiwan. I also doubt they really want to take it by force, if they were going to do that they'd have done so long ago.
The reason they have not done it, is because that would require flying troops over, or landing them via ship, and they would have to get through the USN to do it, and they know they can't. Why do you think they freak out when theres more than 1 carrier near Taiwan?

Quote:
Because they'd face widespread rebellion if they don't. Additionally they'd look pretty stupid for not following through with their agreed plan.
Because rebellion and civil uprisings have ever stopped them before



As if China gives a damn what the world thinks, these are the same people who think that their territorial waters extend 250 miles from their shores, then get all pissy when everyone ignores it.

Quote:
Why on earth would that happen? China has been a country for 2000 years and a civilisation for 5000 years, it hardly seems likely to collapse now.

Its far more likely that much newer countries like Italy, the US etc. etc. will collapse, but if I claimed they were definitely going to collapse under their own weight I'd be seen as pushing bizarre conspiracy theories.
I'm talking about an economic collapse, in 25 years time, 60% of the Chinese people will be to old to work, and the rest will have to support them, thats not sustainable.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eraserhead View Post
What's that based on?
Look at history, Russia has been the wild card, you never know who it'll side with, weather it stays neutral, or goes one way or the other, its not predictable, it never has been. Even in the days of the Soviet Union, proxy wars anyone?
G51989 is offline   0 Reply With Quote


Reply
MacRumors Forums > Mac Community > Community Discussion > Politics, Religion, Social Issues

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Similar Threads
thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
General: Conflict between LockInfo 5 & BiteSMS Quick Reply kmichalec Jailbreaks and iOS Hacks 4 Feb 27, 2013 10:34 AM

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:50 PM.

Mac Rumors | Mac | iPhone | iPhone Game Reviews | iPhone Apps