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Old Dec 27, 2012, 01:47 PM   #1
Lilviton
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Talking iPad Launch Schedule

I am a teenager who constantly is researching the ins and outs of the latest technology with few hopes of getting tablets or computers. Just this year, I waited six months off contract to get my first smart phone, the iPhone 5, because I wouldn't settle for a 4S that would soon be obsolete in my eyes. As of this Christmas, I am finally able to get a tablet and I plan to get the ipad. The problem is whether to wait three months for the alleged ipad 5 or to get the ipad 4 now, seeing as a few months later, the ipad 5 would also be outdated by yet another ipad. i want instant gratification but i will just be annoyed three months from now. The screen may be better and it may have a more sleek design, but retina display is retina display, and the design is already great so is it worth the wait?
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 01:50 PM   #2
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 01:51 PM   #3
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If you need an iPad go get it now (my guess is you don't). If not, then wait because the iPad 5 will be the actual major update from the iPad 3. Also the iPad Mini 2 will probably have a Retina display.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 05:23 PM   #4
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There is no logical reason to believe that Apple will be launching a new iPad (full sized or mini) any sooner than end of summer/Autumn time frame.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 05:53 PM   #5
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There is no logical reason to believe that Apple will be launching a new iPad (full sized or mini) any sooner than end of summer/Autumn time frame.
Actually there is.

Apple has announced/released new iPads in the past

iPad (released in April)
iPad 2 (announced & released in March)
iPad 3 (announced & released in March)
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 05:56 PM   #6
WilliamLondon
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Originally Posted by irDigital0l View Post
Actually there is.

Apple has announced/released new iPads in the past

iPad (released in April)
iPad 2 (announced & released in March)
iPad 3 (announced & released in March)
Thanks, you just proved the point I made - they have launched the iPad on a yearly schedule, and given they just launched the iPad 4 and iPad mini, it would be illogical to expect a new version of either before the end of next year.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 05:59 PM   #7
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Thanks, you just proved the point I made - they have launched the iPad on a yearly schedule, and given they just launched the iPad 4 and iPad mini, it would be illogical to expect a new version of either before the end of next year.
They had to get the iPad Mini into the market for the holiday season and also updated the iPad so it wouldn't look outdated.

Regular time frame of iPad's is still in March.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 06:08 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by irDigital0l View Post
They had to get the iPad Mini into the market for the holiday season and also updated the iPad so it wouldn't look outdated.

Regular time frame of iPad's is still in March.
That isn't logical.

The iPad 3, absent the iPad 4 being launched, would still be seen as fresh and current, your logical is false; they launched the 4 because they wanted to reset the refresh cycle to an end of summer/Autumn time frame. The 4's launch was the anomaly - they wouldn't go anomalous twice in a row, that's not logical. But, we've been here before you and I, and in 3 months we'll see that the iPad's launch date is no longer Spring.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 06:20 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
That isn't logical.

The iPad 3, absent the iPad 4 being launched, would still be seen as fresh and current, your logical is false; they launched the 4 because they wanted to reset the refresh cycle to an end of summer/Autumn time frame. The 4's launch was the anomaly - they wouldn't go anomalous twice in a row, that's not logical. But, we've been here before you and I, and in 3 months we'll see that the iPad's launch date is no longer Spring.
Possible reasons for Apple to release the iPad 4 earlier in the fall...

1. Lightning compatibility for all its devices.
2. More LTE compatibility for customers around the world.
3. Surface/Nexus 10 competition which a spec bump would help counter.
4. Differentiate the iPad Mini and iPad more with a spec bump.
5. All of the above
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 06:22 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
That isn't logical.

The iPad 3, absent the iPad 4 being launched, would still be seen as fresh and current, your logical is false; they launched the 4 because they wanted to reset the refresh cycle to an end of summer/Autumn time frame.
Or they wanted the new Lightning connector out as soon as possible and didn't want the iPad to lag behind the iPhone 5 in terms of CPU. The iPhone 5 has already a GPU that is just as powerful as the one in the iPad 3.

Quote:
The 4's launch was the anomaly - they wouldn't go anomalous twice in a row, that's not logical.
As you said: it was an anomaly. Thus it is only logical to launch a new iPad in March. Not launching an iPad in March would be an anomaly.

Quote:
But, we've been here before you and I, and in 3 months we'll see that the iPad's launch date is no longer Spring.
Or that it does.

I expect a fifth generation iPad to arrive in March. The iPad 4's internals are also in exactly the same place. With every really new upgrade, they actually changed the internals. This time, they didn't even bother to shrink the "space" where the new Lightning connector is. If you wanted, you could just put a 30-pin connector in that very same space.

To me, this indicates that this was an "in-between" update. A quicky.

We'll have to see what Apple does: settle for March, or settle for September/October.

I, however, wouldn't be surprised if they settled for March.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 06:44 PM   #11
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Or they wanted the new Lightning connector out as soon as possible and didn't want the iPad to lag behind the iPhone 5 in terms of CPU. The iPhone 5 has already a GPU that is just as powerful as the one in the iPad 3.
Who, except techies, even know about the detailed specs of these devices? And a lightning connector as a main feature? Really? What's the benefit? And, let me ask you this - don't you think this was part of a bigger plan? You think they launched it to launch the connector? Don't you think they had a big plan on how to roll out the connector, and the iPad played a part of that? They didn't deliver this connector to the iPad team and say, "here's a new feature to launch when you want." What I mean is that they didn't *need* to introduce it in the iPhone 5 - they could have waited, but they didn't, because they had already planned upgrade cycles for the next year and knew it was a good time to be able to get other products on board. But, to move a product launch simply because of a connector is so illogical.

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Originally Posted by ThatsMeRight View Post
As you said: it was an anomaly. Thus it is only logical to launch a new iPad in March. Not launching an iPad in March would be an anomaly.
Do you know what 2 anomalies in a row are? A norm, which means that Apple would change everything (about everything it is as a company) to move to a twice yearly product update.

Quote:
Originally Posted by irDigital0l View Post
Possible reasons for Apple to release the iPad 4 earlier in the fall...

1. Lightning compatibility for all its devices.
2. More LTE compatibility for customers around the world.
3. Surface/Nexus 10 competition which a spec bump would help counter.
4. Differentiate the iPad Mini and iPad more with a spec bump.
5. All of the above
All of those are features deserving of a silent upgrade, not a big launch. And as I said before, two anomalies make a norm, and there is no logic supporting the notion that Apple is moving to a twice yearly upgrade schedule.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 06:51 PM   #12
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If you need it buy it. If you don't, wait. If you wait, you'll likely always wait and find yourself with nothing. You're a teenager, buy something and have fun. It's not hard.
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 07:02 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lilviton View Post
I am a teenager who constantly is researching the ins and outs of the latest technology with few hopes of getting tablets or computers. Just this year, I waited six months off contract to get my first smart phone, the iPhone 5, because I wouldn't settle for a 4S that would soon be obsolete in my eyes. As of this Christmas, I am finally able to get a tablet and I plan to get the ipad. The problem is whether to wait three months for the alleged ipad 5 or to get the ipad 4 now, seeing as a few months later, the ipad 5 would also be outdated by yet another ipad. i want instant gratification but i will just be annoyed three months from now. The screen may be better and it may have a more sleek design, but retina display is retina display, and the design is already great so is it worth the wait?
What a dilemma!
Buy one now, sell it later! Both issues solved....next!
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Old Dec 27, 2012, 07:39 PM   #14
irDigital0l
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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
All of those are features deserving of a silent upgrade, not a big launch. And as I said before, two anomalies make a norm, and there is no logic supporting the notion that Apple is moving to a twice yearly upgrade schedule.
Exactly which is why the iPad 4 didn't get a big launch announcements like the iPad 1, iPad 2, and iPad 3.

Apple isn't moving to a 2x year cycle which means that the iPads will be updated in March in 2012.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 02:02 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
What I mean is that they didn't *need* to introduce it in the iPhone 5 - they could have waited, but they didn't, because they had already planned upgrade cycles for the next year and knew it was a good time to be able to get other products on board. But, to move a product launch simply because of a connector is so illogical.
They said they couldn't fit a 30-pin connector in the iPhone 5. So they decided to switch to the Lightning connector: it would be illogical not to upgrade their best selling iOS devices to this connector just in time for the holidays.



Quote:
Do you know what 2 anomalies in a row are? A norm, which means that Apple would change everything (about everything it is as a company) to move to a twice yearly product update.
I don't consider a launch in March an anomaly.



Quote:
All of those are features deserving of a silent upgrade, not a big launch. And as I said before, two anomalies make a norm, and there is no logic supporting the notion that Apple is moving to a twice yearly upgrade schedule.
No one here supports the notion of a twice yearly upgrade. All we say is: October iPad was an anomaly, they'll continue launching an iPad in March.

Also, did you even watch the keynote? They spent two to three minutes to this iPad 4. It was like "oh yeah, here's something else too". This was no big launch.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 03:26 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Defender2010 View Post
What a dilemma!
Buy one now, sell it later! Both issues solved....next!
Agreed. Ipads hold their prices well. If a new Ipad comes out in March then I will trade mine in and for an additional 170 upgrade to a 5. Its not a huge outlay once you have your foot in the door.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 04:47 AM   #17
WilliamLondon
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I don't consider a launch in March an anomaly.
It's a 6 month refresh cycle, that is the very definition of an anomaly, which follows another 6 month refresh cycle, another anomaly. That would make two, and it won't happen. :-)
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 07:07 AM   #18
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An iPad in March? It simply cannot happen, and if it does, I may just lose a whole lot of faith in Apple.

No, not because I'll be all uptight about having my device prematurely discontinued, but because if they start getting unpredictable with their iPad releases, they lose the hype. The queues, the buildup, nobody really knew the iPad 4 was coming until it did (some people still don't know, but that's another matter entirely...). Hype equals sales.

If they make it five in March, it will be without a new chipset (A7X) because they must debut the standard A7 first, probably in the iPhone 5S which at this stage looks set to stick with its usual Q3 cycle. This means they would have to update the iPad AGAIN in Q3 or 4 to include an A7X, creating another year with two iPad releases, resulting in them having pissed off everyone who bought the iPad 3 in the seven months before the iPad 4, the iPad 4 in the five months before the iPad 5, and the iPad 5 in the six/seven months before the iPad 6.

They must stick to this new cycle or they're going to create headaches for themselves. Three short lived cycles in a row could permanently kill the iPad hype machine. I don't think Apple is this stupid, and if they suddenly do become this stupid, we're in for sad times.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 08:29 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by MF878 View Post
An iPad in March? It simply cannot happen, and if it does, I may just lose a whole lot of faith in Apple.

No, not because I'll be all uptight about having my device prematurely discontinued, but because if they start getting unpredictable with their iPad releases, they lose the hype. The queues, the buildup, nobody really knew the iPad 4 was coming until it did (some people still don't know, but that's another matter entirely...). Hype equals sales.

If they make it five in March, it will be without a new chipset (A7X) because they must debut the standard A7 first, probably in the iPhone 5S which at this stage looks set to stick with its usual Q3 cycle. This means they would have to update the iPad AGAIN in Q3 or 4 to include an A7X, creating another year with two iPad releases, resulting in them having pissed off everyone who bought the iPad 3 in the seven months before the iPad 4, the iPad 4 in the five months before the iPad 5, and the iPad 5 in the six/seven months before the iPad 6.

They must stick to this new cycle or they're going to create headaches for themselves. Three short lived cycles in a row could permanently kill the iPad hype machine. I don't think Apple is this stupid, and if they suddenly do become this stupid, we're in for sad times.
How many times are you going to copy And paste this comment?
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 09:29 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by MF878 View Post
An iPad in March? It simply cannot happen, and if it does, I may just lose a whole lot of faith in Apple.

No, not because I'll be all uptight about having my device prematurely discontinued, but because if they start getting unpredictable with their iPad releases, they lose the hype. The queues, the buildup, nobody really knew the iPad 4 was coming until it did (some people still don't know, but that's another matter entirely...). Hype equals sales.

If they make it five in March, it will be without a new chipset (A7X) because they must debut the standard A7 first, probably in the iPhone 5S which at this stage looks set to stick with its usual Q3 cycle. This means they would have to update the iPad AGAIN in Q3 or 4 to include an A7X, creating another year with two iPad releases, resulting in them having pissed off everyone who bought the iPad 3 in the seven months before the iPad 4, the iPad 4 in the five months before the iPad 5, and the iPad 5 in the six/seven months before the iPad 6.

They must stick to this new cycle or they're going to create headaches for themselves. Three short lived cycles in a row could permanently kill the iPad hype machine. I don't think Apple is this stupid, and if they suddenly do become this stupid, we're in for sad times.
Well, than they lose you as a customer. They know you'll be back.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
It's a 6 month refresh cycle, that is the very definition of an anomaly, which follows another 6 month refresh cycle, another anomaly. That would make two, and it won't happen. :-)
Time line:

X1----------X2----------X3-----X4-----X5----------X6----------X7

Timeline here.
X1 = March 2010 (iPad 1 Wi-Fi launch)
X2 = March 2011, iPad 2
X3 = March 2012, iPad 3
X4 = October 2012, iPad 4
X5 = March 2013, theoretical iPad 5
X6 = March 2014, theoretical iPad 6
X7 = March 2015, theoretical iPad 7

All fat X-characters show an interval of twelve months. The onliest anomaly you can discover is X4, interrupting the '12 month interval'. It's not like X4 and X5 are anomalies. After all, a new interval starts at X5.

I'm not saying that it is 100% certain that a new iPad will launch in March. You might be right, they may have moved it to the fall, but if a launch happens in March no one should be surprised. After all, than they'll just keep the regular schedule and the iPad 4 will be considered an anomaly.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 09:35 AM   #21
stuaz
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I had an iPad 1. Had all intentions to get a mini until I saw it had no retina - for me personally, it meant not a great upgrade over what I had, and I know for sure this time next year people will have Retina capable minis.

So with that I brought the iPad 4 a HUUUUGE improvement over what I had.

Unless the 5 has some major feature which I feel I will want, I doubt I will get it and will wait a couple of releases again before I refresh the iPad. I guess I see iPads similar to computers/laptops in that they are not meant to be upgraded frequently - unlike phones on 1/2/3 year contracts.

One thing I have learnt with Apple though, is that you will wait forever if you go on the motion of "there is another one round the corner, I shall wait". You will always be waiting and never will get one.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 02:48 PM   #22
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why don't they just do updates three times a year:

march: laptops and desktops
june/july: software introduction at wwdc followed by os x release
september: ios devices, with ios update

that leaves enough time to satisfy ios device demand for the festive season.
after all, they moved the iphone release from june to september.

and the example of the late 2012 imacs shows that you don't need an ox release with them. dito for the 2010 mbas which were also october releases while lion was introduced in summer.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 04:29 PM   #23
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All fat X-characters show an interval of twelve months. The onliest anomaly you can discover is X4, interrupting the '12 month interval'. It's not like X4 and X5 are anomalies. After all, a new interval starts at X5.
It's how you look at this, but I've always talked about refresh cycles (coming from an IT hardware and software development background), because that's how I see Apple releases, as durations of time, and they are much, much longer than almost every other company in the industry. The longer cycle that Apple uses benefits the company (and users) in many ways, and 6 month cycles are anomalies, so two 6 month refreshes would be two anomalies, which is how I arrived at 2, and it would also create a "norm", meaning that people would expect an update next Autumn (6 months later), and I'd not fault them for expecting it, which means that sales would be impacted in ways if people were expecting another update to the product in the Autumn. It simply won't happen (which is my point).
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 05:54 PM   #24
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William William william come on think about it. Anyone with half a brain knows the iPad 4 was a stop gap till the iPad 5 in march.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 06:01 PM   #25
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William William william come on think about it. Anyone with half a brain knows the iPad 4 was a stop gap till the iPad 5 in march.
Apple is smart to save a redesigned iPad 5 for March. They know that the majority of iPad 3 owners won't upgrade to the 4 but they needed to get the 4 out for a Lightning upgrade.
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