Today, Macrumors reported that iOS 7 and the next-gen iPhone have shown up in logs. I looked back and I found an interesting pattern: usually five months after the first logs about a new iOS-version show up, a new iPhone launches.
Read more.
I hope Apple is moving back to the June launch schedule for iPhone!
Think about it: what is their most important product? iPhone. And their second most important? iPad.
It is important to have a good line-up in time for the holiday season and that's why, this year, they launched a new iPhone and new iPads in September and October, respectively.
They have had one problem this holiday season: supply! I think Apple doesn't want to launch any new products in November anymore (announcing them in October). And I even feel October isn't acceptable for them anymore. Think about it: iPhone 5 supply was only catching up in late November, early December and they still didn't manage to have the iPhone 5 launch in all countries where the 4S is already available.
iPad mini was even worse: even now there is an estimated two weeks shipping time. That's bad, because it is harder for customers to "just pick up an iPad mini in-store".
I think they'll move back to the June launch schedule for the iPhone. This means that they'll have enough time to ramp up production for the new iPhone and then, by October or November, any shortages should have been reduced to a minimum and the new iPhone will be available in all countries where Apple wants it to be available.
iPad? Either early spring (March) or late summer/early fall (September/October). Probably September/October, so it is close to the holiday season.
iPhone is more important than iPad, though. Every two years, most people get a new phone. An iPad? For most people until it breaks down.
A look at history
So, when I like in the Macrumors archive we see this:
2012: iOS 6 first showed up in March 2012. The new iPhone launched in September. Five months between discovery of iOS 6 'mentions' and launch.
https://www.macrumors.com/2012/03/02/ipads-running-ios-6-0-at-apples-campus-showing-up-in-web-logs/
2011: iOS 5 first showed up in late April 2011. The new iPhone launched in October. Five months between discovery of iOS 5 'mentions' and and launch.
https://www.macrumors.com/2011/04/27/developer-sees-first-crash-report-from-ios-5-0/
2010: iOS 4 first showed up in December 2009. The new iPhone launched in June. Five months between discovery iOS 4 'mentions' and launch.
https://www.macrumors.com/2009/12/14/sketchy-evidence-of-iphone-3-1-3-and-iphone-4-0-os/
Looking at history...
Counting this month and looking at past launch patterns, than a new iPhone should launch in June.
Of course, this is all speculation, but the fact that iOS 7 shows up this early could indicate that a new iPhone is going to launch sooner than we anticipated.
Read more.
I hope Apple is moving back to the June launch schedule for iPhone!
Think about it: what is their most important product? iPhone. And their second most important? iPad.
It is important to have a good line-up in time for the holiday season and that's why, this year, they launched a new iPhone and new iPads in September and October, respectively.
They have had one problem this holiday season: supply! I think Apple doesn't want to launch any new products in November anymore (announcing them in October). And I even feel October isn't acceptable for them anymore. Think about it: iPhone 5 supply was only catching up in late November, early December and they still didn't manage to have the iPhone 5 launch in all countries where the 4S is already available.
iPad mini was even worse: even now there is an estimated two weeks shipping time. That's bad, because it is harder for customers to "just pick up an iPad mini in-store".
I think they'll move back to the June launch schedule for the iPhone. This means that they'll have enough time to ramp up production for the new iPhone and then, by October or November, any shortages should have been reduced to a minimum and the new iPhone will be available in all countries where Apple wants it to be available.
iPad? Either early spring (March) or late summer/early fall (September/October). Probably September/October, so it is close to the holiday season.
iPhone is more important than iPad, though. Every two years, most people get a new phone. An iPad? For most people until it breaks down.
A look at history
So, when I like in the Macrumors archive we see this:
2012: iOS 6 first showed up in March 2012. The new iPhone launched in September. Five months between discovery of iOS 6 'mentions' and launch.
https://www.macrumors.com/2012/03/02/ipads-running-ios-6-0-at-apples-campus-showing-up-in-web-logs/
2011: iOS 5 first showed up in late April 2011. The new iPhone launched in October. Five months between discovery of iOS 5 'mentions' and and launch.
https://www.macrumors.com/2011/04/27/developer-sees-first-crash-report-from-ios-5-0/
2010: iOS 4 first showed up in December 2009. The new iPhone launched in June. Five months between discovery iOS 4 'mentions' and launch.
https://www.macrumors.com/2009/12/14/sketchy-evidence-of-iphone-3-1-3-and-iphone-4-0-os/
Looking at history...
Counting this month and looking at past launch patterns, than a new iPhone should launch in June.
Of course, this is all speculation, but the fact that iOS 7 shows up this early could indicate that a new iPhone is going to launch sooner than we anticipated.
Last edited: