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Old Jan 8, 2013, 09:02 AM   #51
JS82712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spungoflex View Post
Oh there most certainly is, and it is glaringly obvious to anyone who doesn't have their head stuck in the sand.

Do some basic research and look at all of the top new phones released in 2012. Save your silly charts showing millions of blackberry users in India or some other nonsense that is 100% irrelevant. Look at new 2012 releases and open your eyes.

Galaxy S3 - 4.8"
HTC One X - 4.7"
Nexus 4 - 4.7"
Galaxy Note 2 - 5.5"
HTC One S - 4.3"
Sony Experia T - 4.6"
Lumina 920 - 4.5"
LG Optimus 4X - 4.7"
Droid DNA - 5"
iPhone 5 - 4" (ballooned up from 3.5" the year prior)
Razr maxx - 4.3"

You are simply living in a fantasy world if you believe screens on smart phones are not getting bigger. Let's see how many major smart phones are built under 4 inches in 2013.

----------



You don't need to be an expert to notice cell phone companies are making larger and larger screens (INCLUDING apple). Anyone who isn't completely oblivious to the real world can notice that.

Really.
It has come to a point where the android OEMs are now competing with each other on screen sizes, and only screen sizes, because almost everything on the spec sheet is not identical across their phones.

And contrary to popular belief, stuffing a larger screen on your phone doesn't make it more innovative

If I were an android oem, I would be asking myself why android phones only get 4 hours of screen time on average
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 09:24 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by DodgeV83 View Post
Your original post asserted that, "The market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones."

Even if it turns out to be true that 100% of all smartphones released in 2013 are 5" and above, that will not make your current statement that the market is moving towards 5"+ 1080p screens valid. You have shown nothing to substantiate that statement, as you have not presented anything on current purchasing trends.

No one here has presented anything showing that phones are in fact getting larger with 1080p screens. You have shown that the largest phone is getting larger, but not that the overall market is getting larger. On the contrary, the statistics show that an overwhelming majority of smartphones (between 93.9% and 99%) in the market today are either 4" or less, and that the iPhone 5 (a 4" phone) has broken all previous sales records, selling faster than any smartphone in history. Nothing has been shown to refute any of this.
Technically you may be right but you are still making yourself look a fool imo. All Flagship smartphones are increasing in size, sure dumbphones with screens under 4" may make up the large percentage of overall phone sales but this is a different market to the one Apple is competing in with the iPhone. The phones Apple are competing against are ALL above 4" and growing.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 10:05 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by torana355 View Post
Technically you may be right but you are still making yourself look a fool imo. All Flagship smartphones are increasing in size, sure dumbphones with screens under 4" may make up the large percentage of overall phone sales but this is a different market to the one Apple is competing in with the iPhone. The phones Apple are competing against are ALL above 4" and growing.
You are correct. All flagship smartphones are increasing in size, but that's not what he said

Also, the statistics I've shown are not for dumbphones at 4" or lower, they are for smartphones at 4" or lower. If it is agreed that Apple is competing with Android smartphone manufacturers, and it is shown that 93.9% of all Android sales are of phones that are 4" or lower, how can you conclude that Apple is not competing against Android phones that are 4" or lower?
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 01:09 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Spungoflex View Post
The market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones. Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.
Not quite a good analogy, but I remember about 15 years ago when that crazy SUV trend started. What an impression it made to see some drivers almost needing a ladder to get into these monsters only to drive away with the vehicle mostly empty. How ridiculous that was.

The "market" is driven by new ideas because that's how a new market is discovered. Some of those ideas are ridiculous. I think that until we as a human race evolve to have bigger hands, heads, and butt, those 5 inch plus phones are ridiculous. Is it a phone in your pocket, or are you happy to see me?
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 01:17 PM   #55
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iPhone size

I could not agree with you more. Standard size WILL BE at least a 5 inch screen as we are doing so much more with smartphones than just make calls.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 01:24 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Spungoflex View Post
Could they do that without causing app compatibility issues? In 2013, a 3.5" screen on a smart phone is comical. Even 4" is pushing the limits. Mark my words, in 5 years the standard screen size for smart phone will be over 5 inches.

And don't bother replying about how much you like small screens or that you would never use a larger screen. Your opinion won't matter in the slightest. You are the same people who said they would never use a non-flip phone, would never use a phone without physical keys, or would never even use a cell phone in the first place.

The market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones. Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.
I will mark your word, though I agree that, for matching trend, Apple will conform. Yet, in 5 years, the size of the phone may shrink for there is indication now that the control of the portable device won't be solely dependent on touch. Therefore, the screen size is almost irrelevant because even boosting resolution to 1080p won't help browsing or gaming that much.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 01:41 PM   #57
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4.3" is the absolute limit for one-handed use by me.

If I could wean myself off of one-handed use then 5" would be the max. Otherwise we're getting into what fits in a normal pant pocket.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 01:58 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by DodgeV83 View Post
Your original post asserted that, "The market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones."
I'm still waiting for that link. It's been two days and you still haven't found anything yet. Are you going to produce anything of any substance or should I just stop waiting?

I find it fairly amusing that your charts and graphs prove my point and refute yours. That you can't differentiate between current user data and irrefutable trends is your problem, not mine. You sunk your own ship.

And just to rub some salt in your wounds, here is a post from TODAY'S main page on mac rumors:

Apple Launching Larger, Low-Cost iPhone for Emerging Markets Late This Year?

"Some sources claimed that they have seen the sample of the low-cost iPhone, which will come with a larger display, meeting the prevailing trend for the adoption of 5-inch displays for high-end models. They added that the low-priced iPhone will also have a brand new exterior design."


Read it and weep.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 02:48 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Spungoflex View Post
Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.
Ughh, the Retina display is the best on the market...
And the display was launched in 2010, not 2011.

Most of the 4.5"-5" displays on the market right now suck - crappy PPI & colours. Not all of them, but most of them.

Now you mark my words, Apple will be fine with the 4" Retina for the years to come.
5 years the iPhone had a 3.5" display and I'm sure they could have squeezd another year if the iPhone 5 had a 3.5" display.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 04:44 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Spungoflex View Post
I'm still waiting for that link. It's been two days and you still haven't found anything yet. Are you going to produce anything of any substance or should I just stop waiting?

I find it fairly amusing that your charts and graphs prove my point and refute yours. That you can't differentiate between current user data and irrefutable trends is your problem, not mine. You sunk your own ship.

And just to rub some salt in your wounds, here is a post from TODAY'S main page on mac rumors:

Apple Launching Larger, Low-Cost iPhone for Emerging Markets Late This Year?

"Some sources claimed that they have seen the sample of the low-cost iPhone, which will come with a larger display, meeting the prevailing trend for the adoption of 5-inch displays for high-end models. They added that the low-priced iPhone will also have a brand new exterior design."


Read it and weep.
This is the first source you have added to the conversation. Unfortunately, it does not apply to the assertion you made to start the thread.

Are you modifying your statement from "The market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones."

to

"The high-end market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones."

?
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 06:11 PM   #61
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You are correct. All flagship smartphones are increasing in size, but that's not what he said

Also, the statistics I've shown are not for dumbphones at 4" or lower, they are for smartphones at 4" or lower. If it is agreed that Apple is competing with Android smartphone manufacturers, and it is shown that 93.9% of all Android sales are of phones that are 4" or lower, how can you conclude that Apple is not competing against Android phones that are 4" or lower?
Exactly and the iPhone is a flagship smartphone, my point is proven right there!!!! Stats don't always tell the full story either, For example if i go to the big three phone outlets in Australia it is almost impossible to find a Smartphone under 4" This is just a plain and simple fact.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 06:28 PM   #62
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For 2013, all new high end smartphones are larger than 4" screen size. Windows 8 Phones @ 4.5". And all new flagship Android phones are moving to 1080p screen resolution, and size wise most will be 4.7" - 4.9" szie.

The iPhone @ 4" is tiny, and needs to move up, not to 4.5" and larger no, but a 4.3" I could see, and I bet would sell extremely well, and not harm sales at all, but actually increase sales.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 09:22 PM   #63
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Exactly and the iPhone is a flagship smartphone, my point is proven right there!!!! Stats don't always tell the full story either, For example if i go to the big three phone outlets in Australia it is almost impossible to find a Smartphone under 4" This is just a plain and simple fact.
Yes, I agree with you. I never said you were wrong.

I do not doubt that you would find a small number of 4" or under phones at the big three phone outlets (if those outlets are anything like Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint in the US). If you went to a prepaid outlet, where phones are purchased without a subsidy, things might look differently.

The problem with picking and choosing when to pay attention to the stats, is that it produces inconsistent arguments like the one being purported in this thread. The large number of Android sales constantly being thrown around, includes the 93.9% of Android smartphones which are 4" or lower. But people use those numbers to conclude "Look at how much Android is selling! Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.", because they assume it's the large screened phones which are selling the most. This seems to be a logical conclusion, because when they walk into their local store, they barely see any 4" or lower screens.

The stats, however, show this conclusion is based on an invalid assumption. An assumption that the Android sales numbers are supported primarily by these large-screened flagship models.

When we look at the numbers, we see the 4" iPhone 5 has broken the sales record for the fastest selling smartphone. When we compare iPhone sales, to sales of the flagship models you are referring to (6.1% of all Android sales), we see the "small screen" iPhone sales numbers are completely dominant.

This is why, when people make the claims like this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spungoflex View Post
The market is CLEARLY moving towards big (5 inch plus) 1080p screens on smart phones. Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.
they are never able to produce any sources to support their claim of where the market is going, because the market, defined by:

"...the set of all actual and potential buyers of a product or service."

http://www.tutor2u.net/business/mark...s_defining.asp

is moving towards the "small screened" iPhone at a much faster rate.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 09:28 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by DodgeV83 View Post
Yes, I agree with you. I never said you were wrong.

I do not doubt that you would find a small number of 4" or under phones at the big three phone outlets (if those outlets are anything like Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint in the US). If you went to a prepaid outlet, where phones are purchased without a subsidy, things might look differently.

The problem with picking and choosing when to pay attention to the stats, is that it produces inconsistent arguments like the one being purported in this thread. The large number of Android sales constantly being thrown around, includes the 93.9% of Android smartphones which are 4" or lower. But people use those numbers to conclude "Look at how much Android is selling! Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.", because they assume it's the large screened phones which are selling the most. This seems to be a logical conclusion, because when they walk into their local store, they barely see any 4" or lower screens.

The stats, however, show this conclusion is based on an invalid assumption. An assumption that the Android sales numbers are supported primarily by these large-screened flagship models.

When we look at the numbers, we see the 4" iPhone 5 has broken the sales record for the fastest selling smartphone. When we compare iPhone sales, to sales of the flagship models you are referring to (6.1% of all Android sales), we see the "small screen" iPhone sales numbers are completely dominant.

This is why, when people make the claims like this:



they are never able to produce any sources to support their claim of where the market is going, because the market, defined by:

"...the set of all actual and potential buyers of a product or service."

http://www.tutor2u.net/business/mark...s_defining.asp

is moving towards the "small screened" iPhone at a much faster rate.
I am sorry but the vast majority of android phones sold are in fact the large screen ones. The most popular models are the razr hd, galaxy s3, one x, nexus 4 and the note II at the moment. People buy the iPhone with 4 inch screen not because they prefer that size but because its the only size apple offers. If apple offered a larger iPhone a lot of people would opt for that one.
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 09:51 PM   #65
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I am sorry but the vast majority of android phones sold are in fact the large screen ones.
Source?
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Old Jan 8, 2013, 09:55 PM   #66
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http://www.geekwithlaptop.com/the-ef...artphone-sales

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/3/prweb8221804.htm

http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/03/and...he-u-s-kantar/

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Avera...he-way_id35634

These articles are a bit old, and I wasn't able to find a source that broke down current smartphone sales by screen sizes, but it should be enough evidence that the overall market trend is towards larger screen sizes. The last link does mention that mobile phone screens have grown by an average of 38% in the last 3 years (but that likely includes dumbphones in addition to smartphones).

*actually, if you look at the second and third links, you'll see that the second link mentions that almost a quarter of all smartphones sold in Q2 2010 were 4+ inches. The third link says that 29% of all android smartphones sold had screen sizes 4.5"+, and that was published in Sep 2012.

Last edited by eyespii; Jan 8, 2013 at 10:02 PM.
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Old Jan 9, 2013, 12:06 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by eyespii View Post
http://www.geekwithlaptop.com/the-ef...artphone-sales

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/3/prweb8221804.htm

http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/03/and...he-u-s-kantar/

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Avera...he-way_id35634

These articles are a bit old, and I wasn't able to find a source that broke down current smartphone sales by screen sizes, but it should be enough evidence that the overall market trend is towards larger screen sizes. The last link does mention that mobile phone screens have grown by an average of 38% in the last 3 years (but that likely includes dumbphones in addition to smartphones).

*actually, if you look at the second and third links, you'll see that the second link mentions that almost a quarter of all smartphones sold in Q2 2010 were 4+ inches. The third link says that 29% of all android smartphones sold had screen sizes 4.5"+, and that was published in Sep 2012.
Thank you eyespii for contributing to the discussion and providing sources

The first two links and the fourth link use NPD Group as their source, while the third link uses Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, the WPP-owned market analysts, as their source. There are a few reasons I can think of to explain why their numbers differ so greatly from Google's data.

1. Google's data refers to the totality of all Android devices, all over the world. I believe NPD only gives data on the U.S., but Kantar's number is apparently reflecting the global market. I'll look into this more, but maybe they are excluding places like India and China, where unsubsidized phones are more popular?

2. These research firms have been known to be wrong, the Apple-Samsung court case highlighted this very publicly a few months ago:

Quote:
The discrepancy in numbers occurs again in the second quarter of 2012. A research report from IDC last week showed Samsung sold 2.3 million Galaxy Tabs worldwide. The court documents show that in the U.S., between April and June, Samsung sold 37,000 units.
More Secrets Revealed: Galaxy Tab's uninspiring U.S. Sales Numbers

As you mentioned, the last link includes dumbphones in their data, so it is not clear if the increase in average screen size from 2.4" to 3.3" is due to a large increase in large screen smartphones, or just a move to smartphones in general.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, that the data from NPD and Kantar is accurate. Also, let's forget about the fact that both research firms are reporting stats for different parts of the world and aren't directly comparable to show a growing trend.

From Q2 2010 to Q3 2012, the share of large screened phones went from about 23-24% to about 29%. A 5% increase during a span of over 2 years, where over 70% of smartphones sold are still considered "small", does not make a compelling argument that "Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.", because it shows:
  • The large screened Android phones aren't selling the most
  • The large majority of Android phones are either equal in size to the iPhone 5 or smaller
  • The iPhone is still the overwhelming best seller compared to all large screened Android phones combined (which represent 29% of all Android sales).

While it would show a trend, I'm not sure the trend is large enough to warrant the conclusion being presented in this thread.
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Old Jan 9, 2013, 12:46 AM   #68
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Yes, I agree with you. I never said you were wrong.

I do not doubt that you would find a small number of 4" or under phones at the big three phone outlets (if those outlets are anything like Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint in the US). If you went to a prepaid outlet, where phones are purchased without a subsidy, things might look differently.

The problem with picking and choosing when to pay attention to the stats, is that it produces inconsistent arguments like the one being purported in this thread. The large number of Android sales constantly being thrown around, includes the 93.9% of Android smartphones which are 4" or lower. But people use those numbers to conclude "Look at how much Android is selling! Apple will be left in the dust if they keep offering 2011 screens into the future.", because they assume it's the large screened phones which are selling the most. This seems to be a logical conclusion, because when they walk into their local store, they barely see any 4" or lower screens.

The stats, however, show this conclusion is based on an invalid assumption. An assumption that the Android sales numbers are supported primarily by these large-screened flagship models.

When we look at the numbers, we see the 4" iPhone 5 has broken the sales record for the fastest selling smartphone. When we compare iPhone sales, to sales of the flagship models you are referring to (6.1% of all Android sales), we see the "small screen" iPhone sales numbers are completely dominant.

This is why, when people make the claims like this:



they are never able to produce any sources to support their claim of where the market is going, because the market, defined by:

"...the set of all actual and potential buyers of a product or service."

http://www.tutor2u.net/business/mark...s_defining.asp

is moving towards the "small screened" iPhone at a much faster rate.
The problem with those stats are they include all Android phones that log onto the google playstore, these include much older phones from before the screen size increase trend that we are seeing today. If you were to compile stats on all Android Phones sold in the last year it would paint a very different picture and one that supports that the market is heavily swaying towards larger screens. imo Apple NEED to make a larger screen iphone and i would bet it will happen soon, Apple are not stupid. Just look at the sales of the new Ipad Mini, a size that Apple said they would never make...
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Old Jan 9, 2013, 12:47 AM   #69
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A couple more thoughts -

The argument presented that large screen phones increased in share from 23% - 29% over two years is misleading, because the definition of large screens changed from 2010 - 2012. In the 2010 study, large screen was anything above 4", and in the 2012 study, it was 4.5". So to say that it was only a 5% increase over two years is misleading. You'd have to compare 4"+ screens in 2010 vs 2012, a difference which would most certainly be much more than 5%.

Also, while its true that the majority of smartphones sold today are smaller than 4.5" (70% according to the last link), this doesn't mean that the future trend is towards phones smaller than 4.5". Smaller screens are generally less expensive to make and to buy, so what we are likely seeing is that most people (esp in developing countries) are price sensitive, therefore can only afford smaller screen phones.

And this is the big issue for apple. The idea in contention here is that apple "will be left in the dust" if they don't increase their screen size soon. This is a legitimate concern, cause many people equate smaller screens with "less expensive" and "cheap". apple isn't playing for the cheap low-cost phone market, and has never been about cheap. The $650 Phone is held up next to phones like the gs3, razr maxx, nexus 4, and droid DNA, all of which have screens larger than the iPhone and cost around $600 (except the n4). Sure, the iphone is selling well but remember that apple themselves increased the size of their flagship too. And the competition for the high end market is getting bigger screens month by month, which I'm sure apple isn't ignoring.
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Old Jan 9, 2013, 01:20 AM   #70
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Yes, in fact let's encourage them to beat Samsung to the punch and create the 7.85" phone.

It's really simple, just take an iPad mini + retina display + drill holes on the side and add another microphone to said holes. You talk on it like you would use an 1st gen ngage.

Long live the taco phone design!
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Old Jan 9, 2013, 01:42 AM   #71
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Yes, in fact let's encourage them to beat Samsung to the punch and create the 7.85" phone.

It's really simple, just take an iPad mini + retina display + drill holes on the side and add another microphone to said holes. You talk on it like you would use an 1st gen ngage.

Long live the taco phone design!
Samsung already did that a long time ago with the original international version of the Galaxy Tab. Apple is just too slow to catch up with smartphone innovation.
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Old Jan 9, 2013, 08:16 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by DodgeV83 View Post
No, those are stats from Samsung. Whenever they say "sold" they add "to carriers" or "to our distribution channels" or something at the end.
So what.

As has been pointed out many times, Apple's sales figures likewise include devices shipped into the distribution channel (retailers and carriers).

The only time this reporting is a problem is when sell-through to end users is much less than the sell-in to retailers... such as happened with Samsung's first tablets a couple of years ago, and also happened to Apple last year in two quarters with iPhones and iPads.
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Old Jan 10, 2013, 12:44 AM   #73
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So what.

As has been pointed out many times, Apple's sales figures likewise include devices shipped into the distribution channel (retailers and carriers).
Source? Everything I've read everywhere, always says Apple's sales figures are direct end-user sales only.

Quote:
NB: Apple’s number is direct to customer sales, rather than channel shipments
http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/05/sam...te-than-sgsii/
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Old Jan 10, 2013, 06:00 AM   #74
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Source? Everything I've read everywhere, always says Apple's sales figures are direct end-user sales only.
"It's on the internet. It must be true!"

This is such a common myth. We've been over this so many times before. My apologies; I'm just out of hospital and a bit tired. For now, I beg you to do an advanced search on the topic. Just plug in my name and a keyword like "inventory" or "channel".

To start, here's an old post with a Business Insider source explaining why Apple includes store sales.

Also, read this post quoting Tim Cook admitting when their sales figures were over by millions because of too much sell-in to stores and not enough sell-through to end users.

Thanks, I'll contact and correct the young girl blogger who wrote that article.

In the meantime, read this post of mine with multiple CNN Money sources pointing out that even those first weekend iPhone sales numbers included shipments to retailers and carriers.

Last edited by kdarling; Jan 10, 2013 at 06:12 AM.
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Old Jan 10, 2013, 06:40 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by kdarling View Post
"It's on the internet. It must be true!"

This is such a common myth. We've been over this so many times before. My apologies; I'm just out of hospital and a bit tired. For now, I beg you to do an advanced search on the topic. Just plug in my name and a keyword like "inventory" or "channel".

To start, here's an old post with a Business Insider source explaining why Apple includes store sales.

Also, read this post quoting Tim Cook admitting when their sales figures were over by millions because of too much sell-in to stores and not enough sell-through to end users.



Thanks, I'll contact and correct the young girl blogger who wrote that article.

In the meantime, read this post of mine with multiple CNN Money sources pointing out that even those first weekend iPhone sales numbers included shipments to retailers and carriers.
Thanks kdarling, you're always a breath of sanity and well thought out/researched responses among so much emotion.
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