Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call

[AHDuke99]

I'm holding through earnings, but I'm not confident. Apple needs to hit that $55B revenue number and sell 55M iPhones to really satisfy the naysayers.

If Verizon's numbers hold true though, apple may have sold 60M+ iPhones worldwide, which would be fantastic. Depending on what happens, the stock will be trading either at $470 or $540 come Friday.

[1Alec1]

Originally Posted by ToomeyND

Can everyone get their money out? Or if people stop putting more cash in, do you expect them to walk to apple headquarters and collect a piece of the building?

I don't think you understand what the stock market is. Everyone can get their money out, yes. Then the rest of what you said... I don't even know what you're saying. Is that you, Aaron?

[MushroomTip24]

So is anybody here going to purchase APPL stock? Either going to make some instant money or lose some..

[paul4339]

watch for Gross margins, if it's under 39% they are gonna get some serious questions (probably because of iPad mini and iPhone 5 form factor)...

[Edsel]

They'll also announce they have purchased Microsoft, Google and the entire Asian continent.

[AHDuke99]

Originally Posted by MushroomTip24

So is anybody here going to purchase APPL stock? Either going to make some instant money or lose some..

I'd be too afraid to buy it ahead of earnings. AAPL's missed two quarters in a row and people are looking to discount it. If they miss, you can get in at a much lower price.

[inscrewtable]

According to the graph if the Pros really did know what they were doing then surely they'd be agreeing with the Independents.

[Limboistik]

I'm sure it'll be a record quarter.
But I am not sure how my stocks will perform considering the ridiculous expectations from "analysts".
They'll do anything to manipulate the stock.

Hopefully they will let it climb back up a bit so I can exit.

[mjoshi123]

best days of Apple are behind it, Android is eating its marketshare, history repeats itself.

[dejo]

I fully expect Apple to beat their own guidance, fail to meet the hyped analysts' guidance and the stock price to plummet in after-hours trading (and probably during in-hours trading tomorrow, too).

[ECUpirate44]

Apple is here and must innovate to avoid becoming a dog.

[Michael Scrip]

Originally Posted by mjoshi123

best days of Apple are behind it, Android is eating its marketshare, history repeats itself.

Apple is the only company who makes Macs... while there are a dozen companies who make Windows machines.

And the same goes for the iPhone as well... compared to hundreds of Android models across the globe.

Is a company's success based solely on market share? Apple has 120 billion reasons why it's not

[adildacoolset]

I'm sure they'll make another record-breaking quarter with a massive cash pile. But as usual with Apple, they are doomed to be completely wiped out within the next couple of years.

Some people still believe that well over a hundred billion dollars will just simply dissolve, extremely quickly(despite them getting continuously successful quarters) without Apple even knowing.

[IJ Reilly]

Originally Posted by basesloaded190

That graph really has nothing to do with the stock, just Apples earnings

It has nothing to do with earnings, only revenues.

[Michael Scrip]

Originally Posted by ECUpirate44

Apple is here and must innovate to avoid becoming a dog.

Attachment 392136

You could apply that chart to any company.

Samsung is now the largest producer of Android phones... good for them. But what innovations are LG, HTC and Motorola coming up with?

[Rocketman]

In an unusual series of events, Apple guidance was surprisingly close to reality despite UPOD in Q3 '12. There had to be a series of large scale things go wrong to make that happen.

As for Apple being a "mature" company, that is right, but it did something relatively special to offset that. It made its phone contracts generate an annuity so long as they are successful at meeting carriers' main goals. Stickiness and usage. It's working. Apple has at least three upgrade cycles in the bag for each user they have right now. That would be my leading indicator of if the train is coming to a station.

The Apple BOD should have a hard and fast rule to never let net positive new cash annually drop below $10B no matter what, or drastically change direction. They should forever hoard their cash. It was very hard earned.

If that trigger is ever met they should instantly divest the holding company of the operating assets.

[Michael Scrip]

Originally Posted by adildacoolset

I'm sure they'll make another record-breaking quarter with a massive cash pile. But as usual with Apple, they are doomed to be completely wiped out within the next couple of years.

Some people still believe that well over a hundred billion dollars will just simply dissolve, extremely quickly(despite them getting continuously successful quarters) without Apple even knowing.

It could happen, sure.

But as long as Apple earns income from every product they sell... they will continue to be around.

Some companies actually post losses... those are the ones I'd be worried about.

[IJ Reilly]

Originally Posted by KnightWRX

Analysts base themselves on guidances by Apple. Apple set the bar high (52 bn$ revenues), and I guess some people are nervous since that sounds like quite the boast.

But seeing how this quarter was a whopper for them for all the reasons I listed above, I'm not afraid they'll exceed it.

Actually they don't. They base their estimates on sales, revenue and margin projections. Guidance is essentially a worst-case scenario number, the one they can hit even if everything goes wrong. Only making guidance would be a disaster.

[Peace]

For those interested in the earnings call here's the link :

http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.ne...ent/index.html

[GQB]

Originally Posted by nick_elt

Maybe good time to buy? ... Or sell?

Yes.

[IJ Reilly]

Originally Posted by Rocketman

They should forever hoard their cash. It was very hard earned.

So you think Apple saving for their retirement, or maybe just for the day when they stop making money?

[Peace]

Originally Posted by IJ Reilly

So you think Apple saving for their retirement, or maybe just for the day when they stop making money?

I think Tim knows where some of that money is going.

[Rocketman]

Originally Posted by IJ Reilly

So you think Apple saving for their retirement, or maybe just for the day when they stop making money?

Of course. Apple may be the first company in history to have a major growth cycle, realize they are out of favor for a few years and come back again in an entirely new thing because they have the cash and experience to make it happen. And the smarts to observe when they are spending down their cash and kill that noise. I for one don't expect that to happen for 5+ years, but it might.

The questions I want asked at the conference call are these:

What is the total of all credit lines worldwide available to Apple?
What was the maximum draw on credit lines in FY 12?

[samcraig]

I predict a lot of gloating or high fives from/to a group of people who are preaching to the choir

[Merkie]

Originally Posted by ECUpirate44

Apple is here and must innovate to avoid becoming a dog.
Attachment 392136

I don't think Economics 101 charts like this apply to Apple.