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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:29 PM   #76
Michael Scrip
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Originally Posted by mjoshi123 View Post

Probably you will never get point that Apple lost Personal Computing war to Microsoft following exact same business model i.e. control every aspect of persona computing whereas M$ licenses its software to run on whoever is willing to run it. Same thing is repeating in mobile computing space. Apple wants to control every aspect of mobile computing under its ecosystem whereas Google is letting whoever is willing to run with its software let them run. Numbers are right in front of us - Samsung+Google are eating Apple's pie. And if you think Apple can survive this without coming out with revolutionary product, good luck with that. Increasing size of phone, shrinking size of tablet or thinning out desktop is not going to save Apple's falling stock price and marketshare. With this same strategy they are on their way to 7% market share of mobile computing, same as what they had with personal computing.
It's market share versus profitability.

You say the Mac "lost" the desktop war... and yet the Mac is still around 27 years later... and is the most profitable computer on the market.

There was an article that said HP has to sell 7 computers to make the same amount of money as 1 Mac. Which company would you rather be?

And let's consider the dire situation those PC makers are in... razor thin margins selling commodity devices. That's not a great place to be.

You're getting too wrapped up in market share. There are some companies who sell tons of devices... but actually lose money. How the hell does that happen?!?!

Apple may sell a smaller amount of devices... but each and every one generates income.

A company needs money to survive... you cannot pay your rent with market share.

And... a billion dollars is the same whether you're 1% of the market or 10% of the market.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:32 PM   #77
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AAPL earnings news 1-23-13

Revenue $54.51B
EPS $13.81

iPhone units 47.8m
iPad units 22.9m
iPod units ?m
Mac units 4.1m
Average margin 38%
Tax rate 26%

Cash $137B
Stock down 5.5% on earnings news.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:32 PM   #78
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$13.81 EPS

Revenue of $54.51 billion

47.8 million iPhones
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:35 PM   #79
iMikeT
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God dammit, AAPL "missed" on these analysts expectations.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:35 PM   #80
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and the stock plummets

Down over $26 after hours at the moment...
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:35 PM   #81
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Stock down 5% in AH. Ouch.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:37 PM   #82
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It's a beat and the stock plummets. I don't get this.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:38 PM   #83
iMikeT
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It's a beat and the stock plummets. I don't get this.

They didn't beat enough is why.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:38 PM   #84
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Apple Reports Record Results
47.8 Million iPhones Sold; 22.9 Million iPads Sold
CUPERTINO, California—January 23, 2013—Apple ® today announced financial results for its 13-week fiscal 2013 first quarter ended December 29, 2012. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and record quarterly net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $46.3 billion and net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.87 per diluted share, in the 14-week year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 38.6 percent compared to 44.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 61 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Average weekly revenue was $4.2 billion in the quarter compared to $3.3 billion in the year-ago quarter.
The Company sold a record 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 37 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold a record 22.9 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 15.4 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.1 million Macs, compared to 5.2 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 12.7 million iPods in the quarter, compared to 15.4 million in the year-ago quarter.
Apple’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $2.65 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on February 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 11, 2013.
“We’re thrilled with record revenue of over $54 billion and sales of over 75 million iOS devices in a single quarter,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We’re very confident in our product pipeline as we continue to focus on innovation and making the best products in the world.”
“We’re pleased to have generated over $23 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “We established new all-time quarterly records for iPhone and iPad sales, significantly broadened our ecosystem, and generated Apple’s highest quarterly revenue ever.”
Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2013 second quarter:


revenue between $41 billion and $43 billion



gross margin between 37.5 percent and 38.5 percent



operating expenses between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion



other income/(expense) of $350 million



tax rate of 26%
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:41 PM   #85
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Impressive numbers
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:43 PM   #86
Michael Scrip
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Originally Posted by alent1234 View Post

so say the iphone 5 is not selling that well. why is best buy going to buy it from apple to sell it $50 less than apple? cases cost less than $50. how are they going to make money? logic says they will just not buy anymore units or buy just enough to sell at $199

and this only started with the iphone 5. with the 4S and 4 best buy sold it at full price all year
I don't know the particular relationships between Best Buy, the carriers, and Apple. I'm assuming you have to buy a contract with a phone from Best Buy... so you're actually doing most of the deal through the carriers... even if you are inside a Best Buy store.

Sure... Best Buy must get something. But remember this:

Best Buy is, and has always been, a reseller of other people's goods.

A simpler example: When you buy a $600 Sony TV from Best Buy... an overwhelming majority of that money goes back to Sony. Best Buy only gets a tiny percentage of each sale.

That's retail.

Again... it gets a little tricky when the carriers are involved... but clearly Best Buy is still able to cover their bases.

But the point is... that $150 phone... from Verizon... via Best Buy... still earns Apple the full asking price of $650

Apple is not discounting their phones... the carriers and/or retailers are.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:47 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by TC03 View Post
It's a beat and the stock plummets. I don't get this.

On top of that, AMD reported wider loses yesterday yet the stock closed +11%. Go figure.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:50 PM   #88
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“Gross margin was 38.6 percent compared to 44.7 percent in the year-ago quarter"

This is what Wall St. is going to pound on, and this is why apple may be switching to less expensive casings for it's iPhones. Margins.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 03:59 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
It's market share versus profitability.

You say the Mac "lost" the desktop war... and yet the Mac is still around 27 years later... and is the most profitable computer on the market.

There was an article that said HP has to sell 7 computers to make the same amount of money as 1 Mac. Which company would you rather be?

And let's consider the dire situation those PC makers are in... razor thin margins selling commodity devices. That's not a great place to be.

You're getting too wrapped up in market share. There are some companies who sell tons of devices... but actually lose money. How the hell does that happen?!?!

Apple may sell a smaller amount of devices... but each and every one generates income.

A company needs money to survive... you cannot pay your rent with market share.

And... a billion dollars is the same whether you're 1% of the market or 10% of the market.
Let market tell it with its money - AAPL down 5% after results
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:03 PM   #90
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Nicely done apple! Now come on AAPL!
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:03 PM   #91
Michael Scrip
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Originally Posted by mjoshi123 View Post

Let market tell it with its money - AAPL down 5% after results
Haha... true.

So I wonder what the market thinks about the other companies who did NOT just sell 47 million mid to high-end smartphones and generate $13 billion in profit?

If Apple is a miserable failure... lord help those other guys...
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:16 PM   #92
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I know what the headlines are saying (some form of ****), but sheesh what a nice quarter:

q1 2013 vs. q1 2012 (and this quarter was 7 days shorter)

iphone sales up 29%
ipad sales up 48% (despite ipad mini supply constraints)
mac sales up 22% (despite supply constraints)

Sales in China up 67%
Sales in America up 15%

essentially all sales records broken!

Too bad their profit margin decreased due to re-tooling. They still beat profits year/year.
But who cares, APPL please keep making the best products possible, to hell with the investors (and i'm one of them).

Last edited by osaga; Jan 23, 2013 at 04:39 PM.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:27 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Reelknead1 View Post
Big spender! I have 7 shares.
Ha I started with a lowly 15 many moons ago. AAPL has been good to me, I'm hoping it continues.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:49 PM   #94
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They didn't beat enough is why.
Exactly right. The entire world knows (okay, the entire world except for a lot of posters on these boards) that the institutional analysts are conservative estimators. Anything less than a 10% beat is a yawn at best. Apple gave us 3% over the Street, which isn't as weak as last quarter, but not wonderful.

All this talk about "record" earnings is so much noise. If a company does not report a "record" every quarter, that means their profits are declining instead of growing.

That said I am kind of surprised by the after-hours market reaction. A lot of the slower earnings growth should already be priced into the stock. At this rate soon it will be selling at PE levels with companies that mine borax and manufacture pig iron.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:54 PM   #95
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I think Tim knows where some of that money is going.
They could throw a year-long open bar party for the entire world and not cut into the cash hoard much. The very fact that the hoard grows every quarter, even after the dividend and stock buyback program, tells us that Tim doesn't know were most of that money is going. In reality the vast majority of it is going nowhere. If that isn't clear by now I can't imagine when it will be.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 04:56 PM   #96
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They could throw a year-long open bar party for the entire world and not cut into the cash hoard much. The very fact that the hoard grows every quarter, even after the dividend and stock buyback program, tells us that Tim doesn't know were most of that money is going. In reality the vast majority of it is going nowhere. If that isn't clear by now I can't imagine when it will be.
I meant he knows most of it sits offshore evading the U.S tax system.

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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:26 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by mjoshi123 View Post
Probably you will never get point that Apple lost Personal Computing war to Microsoft following exact same business model i.e. control every aspect of persona computing whereas M$ licenses its software to run on whoever is willing to run it. Same thing is repeating in mobile computing space. Apple wants to control every aspect of mobile computing under its ecosystem whereas Google is letting whoever is willing to run with its software let them run. Numbers are right in front of us - Samsung+Google are eating Apple's pie. And if you think Apple can survive this without coming out with revolutionary product, good luck with that. Increasing size of phone, shrinking size of tablet or thinning out desktop is not going to save Apple's falling stock price and marketshare. With this same strategy they are on their way to 7% market share of mobile computing, same as what they had with personal computing.
Doesn't matter. Apple will still make a boatload more money than most in the 93% combined. Market share =/ profit.

The more the 93% fight for market share, the more razor thin their profit margins have to be. That's why companies like HP (#1 in PC market share) almost went under, while Apple dominated profit-wise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mjoshi123 View Post
Let market tell it with its money - AAPL down 5% after results
I'm glad that amuses you. The stench of your bias is quite overwhelming. The stock market is driven more by psychology and perception than facts. But of course, you fit the same profile so who am I telling this to?
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:30 PM   #98
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down goes APPL -10%

And I almost bought some stocks a few days ago. I'm still interested in buying, but I think it will go down closer to $400. sigh..
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Old Jan 24, 2013, 12:54 PM   #99
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Doesn't matter. Apple will still make a boatload more money than most in the 93% combined. Market share =/ profit.

The more the 93% fight for market share, the more razor thin their profit margins have to be. That's why companies like HP (#1 in PC market share) almost went under, while Apple dominated profit-wise.



I'm glad that amuses you. The stench of your bias is quite overwhelming. The stock market is driven more by psychology and perception than facts. But of course, you fit the same profile so who am I telling this to?
Stocks are priced based upon expectations of future returns and past performance of company. Apple prices could bounce back if they come out next quarter with earnings that beats (not just meets) estimates. Past jump in prices have been related to beating estimates and innovative products that competition could not match. It is hard to keep up with its own high standards that Apple have set in past and that is what is reflecting in circuit-breaking price correction today. But don't give up. Your level of understanding has nowhere to go but up.
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Old Jan 24, 2013, 05:12 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by mjoshi123 View Post
Stocks are priced based upon expectations of future returns and past performance of company. Apple prices could bounce back if they come out next quarter with earnings that beats (not just meets) estimates. Past jump in prices have been related to beating estimates and innovative products that competition could not match. It is hard to keep up with its own high standards that Apple have set in past and that is what is reflecting in circuit-breaking price correction today. But don't give up. Your level of understanding has nowhere to go but up.
Oh please. That's a very naive way of looking at how the stock market works and it's not as clear-cut as what you've explained. There's stock manipulation going on all the time, mostly by "analysts" with their own agendas. To say that this over 10% drop is simply due to narrowly not meeting estimates is just intentional ignorance.

As if you live in a bubble and haven't seen how it's now trendy to find fault in everything Apple does. Some big players in the market take advantage of this environment to drive the stock down at a profit, even when the fundamentals are as strong as ever, there is still a healthy growth in sales and further growth opportunities to be had.

But sounds to me you just enjoy being in the "Apple is doomed" club, regardless of what the numbers say. Did you exercise your put options yet?
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