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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:20 PM   #251
lazard
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Originally Posted by HiRez View Post
It doesn't matter what Apple's guidance is, if they miss analyst guidance, they get beaten up for it, no one on Wall Street cares if they beat their own guidance or not.
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Originally Posted by HiRez View Post
Right. I would have said if they don't significantly exceed analyst guidance, they get punished for it.
beat earnings but missed on revenue.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:20 PM   #252
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Apple continues to grow, posting amazingly large profits. How people can possibly say they are doomed baffles me! Mass psychology and the news media for you.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:22 PM   #253
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Apple stock is getting the CORRECTION if fully deserves.

YES Apple is a solid company with little risk going forward, but to value them as the worlds single largest company in history has and remains complete nonsense.

In September last year I posted on this forum several times how I was certain, when digging deeper into the actual numbers behind Apples recent success, that within 12 months time their shares would be worth half what they had been trading for.

Everyone attacked me and called me crazy, insisting they'd be $2000.00 or more within a year.

Well, hate to say I told you so... but well, we're getting close.

Don't believe me, then search my user name and ready my posts.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:22 PM   #254
HiRez
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The bottom line is that Apple is being held to a standard that probably no other company on earth is held to. In a way, they're a victim of their own success.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:23 PM   #255
Plutonius
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Originally Posted by skaertus View Post
I am afraid of buying a Mac as my next computer, as I doubt Apple's commitment to it.
I'm not sure what you are talking about ? Are you afraid that Apple will stop repairing the computers they have sold ?
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:24 PM   #256
eyebye
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Originally Posted by HiRez View Post
The bottom line is that Apple is being held to a standard that probably no other company on earth is held to. In a way, they're a victim of their own success.
No, they're being held by the standing of P/E multiples and discounted future cash flow. Grow slowing = P/E contraction = lower stock price.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:24 PM   #257
lazard
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Originally Posted by AT06 View Post
Apple continues to grow, posting amazingly large profits. How people can possibly say they are doomed baffles me! Mass psychology and the news media for you.
$13.1B profit this quarter vs. $13.06B same quarter last year = 0.003% growth.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:25 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by isoft7 View Post
Apple stock is getting the CORRECTION if fully deserves.

YES Apple is a solid company with little risk going forward, but to value them as the worlds single largest company in history has and remains complete nonsense.

In September last year I posted on this forum several times how I was certain, when digging deeper into the actual numbers behind Apples recent success, that within 12 months time their shares would be worth half what they had been trading for.

Everyone attacked me and called me crazy, insisting they'd be $2000.00 or more within a year.

Well, hate to say I told you so... but well, we're getting close.

Don't believe me, then search my user name and ready my posts.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:25 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
I get expectations and all that but at what point do the numbers stand on their own? I think just about any company, including Exxon Mobile, would kill for those kind of numbers.
Stock price is the real value of owning shares of the company plus the (let's call it) hype hope of how much the company will grow. When the latter swells up rapidly, it's often referred to as a bubble. The hype hope blows the stock price up sky high. As with any bubble, it requires more and more hope-filled buyers to keep buying or the bubble will begin to deflate. If it deflates enough, the hope crowd starts shifting their hope somewhere else and sells. Selling makes others give up and sell and the bubble deflates more.

When the numbers stand on their own is when you get back to what the company shares are actually worth plus the most pessimistic views on the hype hope part of the equation. Then you have mostly real value represented in the stock price and relatively little hype hope.

In just the last few years, many of us have watched AAPL pump up from below $100 to $700. It's done that on some spectacular growth in both real value AND hype hope. Now some of that hype bubble is deflating. Real value is still substantially below this level. It will never fall all the way to real value, so those that are most pessimistic- but steadfast- won't see it fall all that way to that level. However, those looking for some major bounce needs to see the hype bubble start re-inflating again... or Apple needs to blow out everyone's best estimates for several quarters in a row so that both real value and the hype bubble rapidly grow.

To come in below many analysts high (and crazy high) expectations disappoints those suckered into the market on the hype hope that Apple really could perform that well. How many times must a sucker be disappointed before he sells is similar to how low will AAPL need to fall before someone decides to step out. That shift in sentiment when done by the crowd sometimes marks the approx. bottom for a stock. So if maybe this big drop moves enough people to really sell soon, you might get that "capitulation" event at which point it may be time for the buyers to start buying again. Unfortunately, capitulation is usually marked by the point where everyone seems to be bearish on the stock (everyone believing it is going to go lower from here); we don't have that yet (to many "great buying opportunity" stories/posts/comments by the hope hype crowd or those holding too much stock and can't bear to sell it now).

No matter how high a stock is and how much upside it has, when the buyers stop buying, it can't go any higher. No matter how low a stock falls and how much downside risk it seems to have, when the sellers stop selling it can't go any lower. Right now, AAPL seems to have people believing it is going to go lower. Until people willing to sell stop believing that, it will go lower unless more buyers step up and out-buy the selling. Real value of the shares is still way below this level.

Last edited by HobeSoundDarryl; Jan 23, 2013 at 05:43 PM.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:26 PM   #260
Peace
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Originally Posted by lazard View Post
$13.1B profit this quarter vs. $13.06B same quarter last year = 0.003% growth.
Last year had 14 weeks. This year had 13 weeks.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:26 PM   #261
lunaoso
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Originally Posted by lazard View Post
$13.1B profit this quarter vs. $13.06B same quarter last year = 0.003% growth.
To be fair, it's pretty hard to grow from 13 billion dollars.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:27 PM   #262
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Originally Posted by Macs In LA View Post
The "miss" came from the inability of Apple to ship the newest iMacs. The CPU sales of taking orders

It is really, really stupid for them to launch products in December, especially when they cannot crank out 1 million units. Mid-October should be the latest they have new products, and they should not take orders until they can ship the first 500,000 units of anything in 24 hours. It is a logistical failing, not a technological one.
They probably would've shipped early IF the product was ready for market. Apple doesn't bring a product to market until it is ready design-wise. The major problem they experienced were manufacturing yields. How do you suppose they have handled that better? Hold the product and keep selling outdated tech? No.. they needed to accept the reality and conditions and get the product out as soon as they could. May not have been ideal circumstances, but better than not at all.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:27 PM   #263
alent1234
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To be fair, it's pretty hard to grow from 13 billion dollars.
So that is why the stock has crashed?
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:28 PM   #264
Greg.
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I get expectations and all that but at what point do the numbers stand on their own? I think just about any company, including Exxon Mobile, would kill for those kind of numbers.
The numbers ought to be already completely factored into a companies stock price. It is then the expectations of future earnings and cash flows that determines the value today and daily price changes. While $13bn seems huge, if the market had built $14bn into its expectations then they'll be a (downwards) correction. Expectations form a much bigger part of a companies stock market value than past and current financial information.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:28 PM   #265
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I dont know much about stocks but surely this would be the best time to buy no?
Let me tell you a story.

Last fall when Apple plummeted 10% from $700 to $640 over a couple of months, someone on this forum advised people to take out HELOs and buy all the stock they could.

Apple just declined that much in a few hours.

What's my point? Don't get investment advice on MacRumors.
You're welcome.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:29 PM   #266
lazard
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stock price is based more on expectations of future cash flow than previous earnings results.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:29 PM   #267
irDigital0l
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Wow I'm surprised how Mac sales dropped considering the introduction of the retina Macbooks and new iMacs.
I'm not surprised considering they cost like $1700-$2000.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:30 PM   #268
lazard
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I dont know much about stocks but surely this would be the best time to buy no?
never try to catch a falling knife.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:32 PM   #269
coolfactor
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Originally Posted by skaertus View Post
I am afraid of buying a Mac as my next computer, as I doubt Apple's commitment to it.
Just remind yourself of these points:
- Apple would not settle for designing and building their own products using Windows.
- Apple will not bring Xcode to Windows.
- Apple will not lower their own internal standards.
- 4 million Macs sold in 3 MONTHS. That's a lot, even if it was a decline from the same quarter last year. It's not a trend, just a result of release delays/manufacturing issues.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:33 PM   #270
Rocketman
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Originally Posted by nick_elt View Post
I dont know much about stocks but surely this would be the best time to buy no?
If you have a time frame measured in a year or more, this is pretty much a no-brainer. This is a gift. I measure gift by PE ratio. ~10. Scary-low.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:34 PM   #271
Frisco
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I don't know what to say. I am totally paralyzed by these results. No one can have seen this coming!
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:35 PM   #272
radio893fm
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Originally Posted by MacFather View Post
"Most prolific period of innovation and new products in Apple's history."



Tim, taller iPhone and smaller iPad is not innovation.
I heard an analyst say a couple of days ago: "the distortion field is fading out with all Apple things"... so like it went to 700 without an actual reason, but speculation, then it goes down... so I guess ultimately the stock needs to correct itself and stay where it belongs, and will move based on "REAL" innovation, products, etc.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:35 PM   #273
IJ Reilly
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Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
I get expectations and all that but at what point do the numbers stand on their own? I think just about any company, including Exxon Mobile, would kill for those kind of numbers.
Good question, but the stock market is an emotional animal, at least in the short run. I have a feeling that the markets will have an ah-hah moment at some point, when the multiples are calculated. At a PE under 10 (which I presume it must be now), AAPL is being priced for little or no growth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HiRez View Post
Right. I would have said if they don't significantly exceed analyst guidance, they get punished for it.
My rule of thumb is Street plus 10%, or look out below. Seems to hold true year after year. And yet the magnitude of the reaction is surprising given that the markets had already priced in lower earnings growth rates.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:37 PM   #274
YourAvgUser
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Originally Posted by lilo777 View Post
There can't be two killers for one creatures. Galaxy S already killed iPhone. SGS3 outsold iPhone 4S in Q3 and looking at Q4 numbers (and a fact that iPhone 5 amount to less than 50% of all iPhone sales) it looks like S3 will stay on top (or get back to it in Q1, Q2 and on.
Ya, so if iPhone 5 were only 50% of sales last quarter, it would be up around 23.5 million, add on the sales in the quarter before and iPhone 5, which has been available for 4 months, has sold nearly as many GS3's since the GS3 launch.

Troll harder.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 05:38 PM   #275
lazard
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My rule of thumb is Street plus 10%, or look out below.
yup
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