Apple Blames Low Mac Sales on iMac Supply Constraints

[KnightWRX]

Originally Posted by Woyzeck

Well, there won't be an iTunes store in 20 years from now, but I'm sure that I can still read my CDs from the 90s by then. And even if I didn't like them any more I could hand them over to my kids. Or maybe even sell them.

I have mp3 files that I've been dragging along for longer than some of the CDs I've owned.

Who cares about the store itself ?

[Mr-Kerrse]

Originally Posted by Woyzeck

Well, there won't be an iTunes store in 20 years from now, but I'm sure that I can still read my CDs from the 90s by then. And even if I didn't like them any more I could hand them over to my kids. Or maybe even sell them.

Whats CD's so there won't be an itunes but indestructable CD's will survive

I don't own any CD's the few i did have were disposed of long ago there is nothing nostalgic about CD's i could understand if it was a vinyl record

[Woyzeck]

Originally Posted by Mr-Kerrse

Whats CD's so there won't be an itunes but indestructable CD's will survive

I don't own any CD's the few i did have were disposed of long ago there is nothing nostalgic about CD's i could understand if it was a vinyl record

I don't want to start a discussion about audio quality, but for some people compressed formats like MP3 are not suitable for all kind of music. It's not about nostalgia.

The same applies to video (720p in the iTunes store).

[zoozx]

Maybe sales are down because people didn't see thinner as enough of a reason to upgrade.

Come on apple.

[Woyzeck]

Originally Posted by zoozx

Maybe sales are down because people didn't see thinner as enough of a reason to upgrade.

Come on apple.

I've heard rumours that the 2013 iMac will contain an optical drive again, but it won't be accessible by the user. It's called Infusion Drive.

[Mr-Kerrse]

Originally Posted by Woyzeck

I don't want to start a discussion about audio quality, but for some people compressed formats like MP3 are not suitable for all kind of music. It's not about nostalgia.

The same applies to video (720p in the iTunes store).

There are many places to buy both from that are not itunes and are 320 mp3s & 1080p movies.

My point was physical products such as CD/DVDs are dead formats.

[alent1234]

Originally Posted by GermanyChris

Or we're starting to see people reject Apples neglect of the Mac Pro and the reduced flexibility and longevity of the iMac. There simply is no compelling reason right now to buy an Apple desktop.

that's what i told someone the other day. it's like buying an acura over a honda. you are still buying a spiffed up honda at a premium price. overall it will still do the same thing like a regular honda

[satcomer]

Originally Posted by sofila

iMac took 577 days for upgrade.
After 577 +55 days Apple's finding out some "supplying constraints" and customers cannot hope to order an iMac and wait for lesser than 4/5 weeks

i don't see low mac sales much as a surprise

You won't get any tracking here using logic.

[Drunken Master]

Originally Posted by GermanyChris

Or we're starting to see people reject Apples neglect of the Mac Pro and the reduced flexibility and longevity of the iMac. There simply is no compelling reason right now to buy an Apple desktop.

Doubtful.

The Mac Pro crusade on here is blown out of proportion; many pro users I know or in the fields I have worked in use iMacs, moreso than the Mac Pro. At my current job, for example, we have one Mac Pro and five iMacs.

And many casual users are simply making do with laptops and tablets these days.

[aliensporebomb]

Originally Posted by 1Alec1

BS.

- The new iMac has non-removeable RAM, a deterrent for some users. And the SD card slot is on the back, WTF.

- It took Apple ridiculously long to update the iMac. Dell can push out an update every 2 seconds. All they have to do is make the internal components NOT over a year old. No need to change the style, just update it.

- Apple clearly doesn't care about desktop computers. If you go to an Apple store, there's that one iMac in the corner while the posters on the wall and the ads all tell you to buy something else.

But Dell doesn't actually make anything - they just send an RFP to all of the electronics companies in the far east and say "we want to sell a PC compatible with these features at that price point" and then they get examples from each manufacturer and the one that wins is one that gets the best balance of features and price point.

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Originally Posted by Lesser Evets

I wonder about that AND the price-vs-function of the iMac.

Apple should consider making sub-iMacs that are maybe 20" and less processing power and connectors to make something like an iMac-mini for $999. One USB3, one TB, one Ethernet, one headphone output, mono speaker, small camera, etc.

At the moment they supply a barely-mid-level machine at a price a little above worth for starters. A good machine, but most budget conscious people can go with the mini and regret nothing.

They do. It's called a Mac Mini and you can even get a monitor with a matte display with it!

[Phx08]

This kind of makes me happy; Why? Because consumers are receptive to the supply issue like with any other product and Apple is now feel a slight bit of "pain"...at least 16% worth.

Especially in this society where consumers have a "I WANT IT NOW" attitude, having supply difficulties will really hurt sales. Not to mention the time frame that these problems occurred. In my opinion sales would have been better if they had released it during the holiday season; gifts for others, gifts for yourself, etc!

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Originally Posted by zoozx

Maybe sales are down because people didn't see thinner as enough of a reason to upgrade.

Come on apple.

Very true!

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Originally Posted by inscrewtable

The new 2012 imac range is a monumental cock up. Period. They pissed a lot of people off with the Fusion BS and redesigned the chassis all for the sake of a laminated screen that they could not get ready in time.

Fusion is only really a viable option in the Future when external TB SSD prices come down.

All they needed to do was upgrade the gpu, cpu and SSD options and add usb3.

You're right, I was certainly angry that the delay was due to them trying to make something "thinner" that really didn't need to be....Come the Ef on Apple....

[deconstruct60]

Originally Posted by KnightWRX

Barring the iMac shipment constraints, Tim said portables were in-line with IDC growth. Well, looking at the numbers posted by IDC, it's not that pretty of a picture since the growth was negative :

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?contai...3#.UQEXkuVOlhE

If he meant that IDC's numbers for Apple were in-line with reality, then that means that MacBook shipements were down 0.2% YtoY. In other words, stagnant sales. The iMac constraints then caused the plunge which should have been cushionned by portable sales some but wasn't.

First, That 0.2% likely has an error bar associated with it that is larger than 1%. IDC figures aren't accurate to the sub single digit percentage range. Apple likely have more accurate numbers than IDC does about Mac laptop sales. At best you can call that 0% which isn't negative.

Second, That isn't even laptop numbers. ( It is a PC shipments graph). If desktops are shrinking faster than laptops can grow then the overall PC market will shrink. Except for AIO desktops the desktop market is shrinking (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-pc...102011146.html ) . If Apple's laptops are aligned with overall PC laptop growth ... then they are probably growing. Growing at the expense of desktops (not expanding the market) but growing none-the-less.

Third, That isn't even worldwide numbers. ( Apple only makes top 4 is narrow range to USA ). Even if take the US number international growth could clearly offset such a small "decline" (or stagnation).

[KnightWRX]

Originally Posted by Mr-Kerrse

There are many places to buy both from that are not itunes and [...] 1080p movies.

My point was physical products such as CD/DVDs are dead formats.

People place way too much emphasis on the 1080p aspect. It's not about 1080p or 720p. If you take Blu-ray, your video is encoded at something like 40 Mbps for the bitrate. Sure it's the same 1080p resolution as your Internet download, but guess what, it's 4 times the quality of that ****** 10 Mbps bit-rate overcompressed crap riddled with DRM you got.

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Originally Posted by deconstruct60

First, That 0.2% likely has an error bar associated with it that is larger than 1%. IDC figures aren't accurate to the sub single digit percentage range. Apple likely have more accurate numbers than IDC does about Mac laptop sales. At best you can call that 0% which isn't negative.

Look, I was quoting Tim Cook here. He said himself that the numbers were in-line with IDC's number on the conference call. Don't shoot the messenger because you don't like the message. I don't like it either, but it is what it is.

Here, just so you don't keep replying trying to insinuate I'm some kind of "Doom and Gloom poster" :

Q: Talk a little more about Macs? Shortfall there is $1 to $1.5 billion. How much of that is pushed into March quarter?

A: Thanks for asking the question. The best way to answer this is to look at the previous year. The difference is $1.1 billion from last year. iMacs were down by 700k units year over year. As you remember, we announced new iMacs late in October. Announced they would ship in November and December. Did ship by those dates. Limited weeks of ramping on those products during the quarter. Significant constraints on the iMac at the end of the quarter. Sales would have been materially higher without those constraints. Tried to share this on the conference call in October.

If you look at last year, we had 14 weeks in the quarter last year. 13 weeks this year. Channel inventory was down from the beginning of the quarter by more than 100k units. Didn't have the iMacs in channel. These factors bridge more than the difference between this year's sales and last year's.

These are lesser things: the market for PC's is weak. IDC estimate is -6%. We sold 23 million iPads, could have sold more than this because we were constrained on iPad mini. Some cannibalization there, sure there was some there. Mostly was iMacs, 13 versus 14 week, channel inventory more than explains difference from last year to this year.

Our portables alone were in line with IDC projections of market growth.

At least if you're going to be snarky, read the highlights of the conference call geez.

[Jaymes]

The economic impact on big ticket items $1000+ has to be huge; it just can't be stated enough. People are focusing on the essentials and what is cheap. If the economy picks up, you can expect Mac sales to pick up as well.

It's all cyclical; just look at the correlation between the economy and new car sales as a similar sort of situation. Many people are delaying buying a new(er) car due to economic reasons and are trying to get "one more year" out of their current vehicle. I believe the same is happening right now in the desktop/laptop market. Anecdotally, I know it's happening in businesses in my area. It was a down year, so a couple that I know have 3-year replacement cycles switch that to 4-years. I think 2013 will be a bounce-back year for the PC industry, Mac included, as businesses like these will likely feel obligated to upgrade, and if the economy picks up at all, perhaps the average Joe will feel comfortable parting with $1000+.

To be frank, I'm quite surprised Mac sales weren't lower, simply due to the economic situation. Apple should actually be celebrating things weren't worse.

[cube]

Form over function is finally killing the Mac.

[GermanyChris]

Originally Posted by Drunken Master

Doubtful.

The Mac Pro crusade on here is blown out of proportion; many pro users I know or in the fields I have worked in use iMacs, moreso than the Mac Pro. At my current job, for example, we have one Mac Pro and five iMacs.

And many casual users are simply making do with laptops and tablets these days.

I'm won't deny that, there are people that need more then 32GB of RAM, more than 4 cores, want to pick their own display, and more than a mobile GPU. Then there are those of us that need more than one HDD. There is no compelling reason right now to buy either of these Mac desktops.

[deconstruct60]

Originally Posted by KnightWRX

Look, I was quoting Tim Cook here. He said himself that the numbers were in-line with IDC's number on the conference call. Don't shoot the messenger because you don't like the message. I don't like it either, but it is what it is.

It is extremely likely he was refering to IDC numbers on Laptop ( comparing Apples to Apples) growth. (i.e., folks who have the actual read IDC report not the freebie summary they hand out). Not general PC growth. It would be goofy to compare Mac laptops to discount netbooks and desktops. They are different markets.

You have not referred to IDC laptop/portable growth numbers. There is not tangible message here. Misdirection. Cherry picked facts.... no message.

At least if you're going to be snarky, read the highlights of the conference call geez.

I read both the transcript yesterday and the link you attached. Apparently you missed the part during the conference call where Cook warned against folks speculating about Apple's status using incomplete and inaccurate data.

[G4er?]

Or perhaps more people still use an optical drive than Apple thought and people find it stupid to buy a desktop computer and then have to use an external optical drive when it should be built in.

[KnightWRX]

Originally Posted by deconstruct60

It is extremely likely he was refering to IDC numbers on Laptop ( comparing Apples to Apples) growth. (i.e., folks who have the actual read IDC report not the freebie summary they hand out). Not general PC growth. It would be goofy to compare Mac laptops to discount netbooks and desktops. They are different markets.

You have not referred to IDC laptop/portable growth numbers. There is not tangible message here. Misdirection. Cherry picked facts.... no message.

No message ? You're the one who twisted around my initial post to nitpick this little tidbit in order to setup some kind of "Descontruct60 is the good guy Apple lover vs KnightWRX, the bad bad Apple hater".

Frankly, I don't want to play your silly black and white game. Now go back to my original post, and do you have any insight into the actual message I was trying to make, that is the worrying aspect of this Mac YtoY decline, its position as barely 10% of Apple's revenue and what it could mean for future slowed development of the platform as the market more and more turns into a sustaining business rather than a growth opportunity ?

If you're only going to reply in some attempt to polarise and fight, please don't.

Originally Posted by deconstruct60

I read both the transcript yesterday and the link you attached. Apparently you missed the part during the conference call where Cook warned against folks speculating about Apple's status using incomplete and inaccurate data.

Then he should have given the break down. He didn't, simply offering that "portables were in line with IDC's market growth". Not even stating which IDC metric he's referring to. I picked "Apple's US growth" as a starting point for discussion, I could have picked the even worse "PC Market world wide growth" which was at a whopping -6% off the top of my head, but no, I went with sustained sales of portable at -0.2%.

So please, don't make me into a bad guy and ignore my actual point I was trying to discuss, this is horrible and it happens all the time.

Why are you guys so defensive damnit ? Can't we discuss things rationaly rather than always have to bicker back and forth ?

[linkgx1]

As long as Apple can QUICKLY learn from it's mistakes, it's fine.

The problem with most companies today, is they don't "acknowledge" their mistake and continue to make the same ones.

Apple has admitted to the map problem, so we know they are working on a solution.

[KnightWRX]

Originally Posted by linkgx1

As long as Apple can QUICKLY learn from it's mistakes, it's fine.

The problem with most companies today, is they don't "acknowledge" their mistake and continue to make the same ones.

Apple has admitted to the map problem, so we know they are working on a solution.

Apple fixed the mistake quickly. The big mistake was Q3 '12 where they barely made their own guidance. Q4 '12 was better, they were above their own guidance, but right under analysts' predictions. Same for Q1 '13, but even closer.

They've also issued statement about their next guidance, warning about adjustment to their conservative nature so that analysts' don't overshoot as much next time :

- Changing our approach to guidance. Reflected conservative point estimate of results that we had reasonable confidence in achieving.
- Plan to offer range of guidance for what we believe we can achieve. We believe we are likely to report in the range of guidance we can provide. $41-43 billion in revenue for next quarter, gross margin between 37.5 and 38.5%.

[smoledman]

Originally Posted by 1Alec1

BS.

- The new iMac has non-removeable RAM, a deterrent for some users. And the SD card slot is on the back, WTF.

- It took Apple ridiculously long to update the iMac. Dell can push out an update every 2 seconds. All they have to do is make the internal components NOT over a year old. No need to change the style, just update it.

- Apple clearly doesn't care about desktop computers. If you go to an Apple store, there's that one iMac in the corner while the posters on the wall and the ads all tell you to buy something else.

Tim Cook has already said that the iPad will replace the desktop computer.

[bedifferent]

Originally Posted by smoledman

Tim Cook has already said that the iPad will replace the desktop computer.

Perhaps in 5-10 years. At the moment, it would be hell to use an iPad for my editing work. As it stands, my 12-Core Mac Pro with SSD and 32GB RAM does a decent job in a good amount of time, I'd be screwed using an iPad (or even loaded iMac).

[1Alec1]

Originally Posted by smoledman

Tim Cook has already said that the iPad will replace the desktop computer.

Yeah, that too. He's wrong anyway because iPads can't jailbreak iPads

[elev8d]

Personal anecdote. Supply constraints are preventing my purchase because I can't take advantage of my EPP discount, which is hundreds of dollars until the iMacs are in stock. I know I'm not the only one either.