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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:21 PM   #126
cmChimera
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The retina MacBook Pro team screams into their high resolution screen when anyone says Apple isn't innovating.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:21 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by bobenhaus View Post
After hours AAPL stock is down 50 dollars. Not good. Apple is making a good margin in profit but not growing and thats the problem. They are stagnant and everyone has a IOS device and its starting to hurt the company.
They've saturated markets built on cheap credit.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:21 PM   #128
samcraig
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Originally Posted by 1Alec1 View Post
If you are holding right now, then you think it will go up, but if you're waiting for it to go down to $350 before you buy, then you think it will go down, otherwise you would buy right now. But if you think it will go down to $350, you should sell the ones you bought at $100/share. So there's conflicting logic.
No. Where did I say I think it will go down. Again - you're "judging" my thought process (incorrectly).

My comment was that I would buy if it went lower. That doesn't mean I think it will. Or want it to. And perhaps I only think it will go up to $600. So buying at the current price point doesn't make as much sense. So I set my personal bar for $350 (example). IF it goes down - then it makes sense for me to buy based on my criteria. If it doesn't - no harm no foul and I look forward to watching the stock climb.

There's no conflicting logic. You simply aren't "getting it" And I don't mean that as an insult (sincerely). I've explained it via the past few posts. If you don't "get it" from my posts - I'm not sure you will. That's OK.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:22 PM   #129
mdlooker
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Originally Posted by jlasoon View Post
$ 175 <----- Bank on it

Look at the fundamentals. GET OUT OF THE STUPOR!!!
If it goes to this...I'M IN!!!! It's gotta go up from there...Apple hasn't stopped inventing!
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:23 PM   #130
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Here's my view on this:

The analysts are right that profits will increase but expected them to increase more than they did. Therefore, they are selling. The investor who wins is the one who can predict price changes down to a derivative deeper than the average.

BUT

First of all, AAPL is undervalued to begin with IMO. Just an opinion. Secondly, the analysts' expectations were too high because they shouldn't have expected Apple to gain like it did when it was eating the ripe 2008 market. It should come back to bite them if they are wrong, but the unjust thing about it is that the analysts themselves push the price down.

Us investors longing AAPL will spit in the analysts' faces if it goes up, but even if we're wrong, it's not exactly fair. If that happens, whatever, don't whine too much about it.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:24 PM   #131
Michael Scrip
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Originally Posted by parapup View Post

Well without Steve you can count on anyone and that'd not be a bad bet. For one there is Google, but them notwithstanding there are lot of possibilities. Innovation has no defined path or history - it can popup out of blue from anywhere.
It's funny you mentioned Steve. Some people think that without Steve... Apple will never innovate again.

So... what about the companies who never had a Steve?

And speaking of history... I'm sure everyone remembers the day Steve introduced the iPhone. It was a re-imagining of what a smartphone could be.

And shortly thereafter... here comes everyone else with their new smartphones.

Then Apple set their eyes on the tablet. Once again... they threw out the rules and re-imagined what a tablet could be.

And like clockwork... here comes all the tablets from other companies.

Why did those companies stop at tablets... instead of leading the way with the next thing? It's been 3 years already!

Everyone is always talking about disruptive products. And Apple has been responsible for a few of them.

But the other companies just seem to follow right along... calling Apple's bet instead of raising the bet.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:25 PM   #132
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I agree with 80% of what you wrote but I'm still nervous.
I totally understand that you are nervous. But think about it, realistically, how much lower can it get. And you know how it goes in the stock market. You buy high, and when it goes low you cannot stomach it anymore and you sell, than boom, it goes up and you feel suicidal and get caught in a whipsaw and loose all your money.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:25 PM   #133
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stock prices blah blah ****ing blah. i get so tired of that ****. to me apple lost its magic with steve jobs. i had some hope but im losing it. i guess we'll see what they do in these next few months to figure out if things are headed up still or down like im afraid they might be.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:27 PM   #134
KPOM
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Originally Posted by jlasoon View Post
$ 175 <----- Bank on it

Look at the fundamentals. GET OUT OF THE STUPOR!!!
Apple's CASH balance is only slightly less than that. Remember, they just announced record earnings and revenue. Even if they pulls a 1999 Microsoft and stagnate completely they are worth more than $175/share.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:27 PM   #135
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Apple is becoming Microsoft - or at least that's the fear. They sell a ton of their cash cow products and make good money - but that's just resting on their laurels. Where the hell is any innovation and disruption? People respect Apple for exactly that. Making profits on cash cows - that spot is for Microsoft.
... except MSFT and IBM (both with flat income over recent years and no obvious growth prospects) have P/E of 14+ while Apple is now flirting with 10. The only way Apple is correctly valued at under $500 is if you believe their earnings will be down by 30% in the next year or so.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:28 PM   #136
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I disagree. It won't grow at the same rate as it did between 2008-2011, but I think it is in a different position from say, Microsoft, in 1999. The DOJ isn't investigating Apple to a significant degree, as it was with Microsoft in 1999. China is still a huge growth market. Microsoft wasn't trading at 9 times earnngs in 1999. Microsoft didn't have $137 billion of cash in the bank.

Don't expect to see $1000 or even $700 in a year, but don't expect to see $250 either.
It'll be like oracle intel msft and every single stock chart you see that imploded during the tech bubble of 2000-2002
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:29 PM   #137
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not really. investing is nothing like the lotto. main thing to know is diversification, then that guy wouldn't have been so screwed. think of a stock as ownership in a business. as long as the business is reasonably profitable and financially stable as Apple is, there is value in ownership. of course, the guy who bought at a period of over-optimism (bad idea) will take longer to recover his original investment, it could take years. in the meantime, he'll receive a modest dividend. most people are better off buying a fund that tracks the market while reading the Intelligent Investor.

best thing for that guy to do is sell if there's a spike in price, don't wash sale, and wait for unimpressive earnings, bad news in a solid company, or for the market to go down b/c of something like debt concerns. then you'll get bargains.
actually it is just like the lotto. if you have a secret formula for buying high sell low, you'd be much richer than the next lottery winner

this always reminds me of when people say "APPLE IS NOTHING BUT MARKETING" well if it's so simple how come you're not operating the most valuable company in the world?
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:29 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by mdlooker View Post
If it goes to this...I'M IN!!!! It's gotta go up from there...Apple hasn't stopped inventing!
Your assuming too much. The economic fundamentals of this country are all @#$%^& up. Nothing ever has to do anything. Cheap money, inflation, interest rates, were all about to get reamed really hard.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:30 PM   #139
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Let's say you own $50K worth of Apple shares (so about 100 shares). They offered a $2.65 dividend per share. So you would make about $265 on your $50K investment.

Does anyone else see a problem with that? It's insulting to say the least.
This is why AAPL is worthless stock unless you bought it for peanuts a few years back. Buying now is not such a hot idea due to the lack of real dividends.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:30 PM   #140
KPOM
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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
It's funny you mentioned Steve. Some people think that without Steve... Apple will never innovate again.

So... what about the companies who never had a Steve?

And speaking of history... I'm sure everyone remembers the day Steve introduced the iPhone. It was a re-imagining of what a smartphone could be.

And shortly thereafter... here comes everyone else with their new smartphones.

Then Apple set their eyes on the tablet. Once again... they threw out the rules and re-imagined what a tablet could be.

And like clockwork... here comes all the tablets from other companies.
Exactly. How many companies would love to have a CEO who's as brilliant a supply chain master as Tim Cook? How many companies would love to have a C-level executive with Jony Ive's sense of style? How many companies would love to have a chief engineer like Bob Mansfield, or someone like Eddy Curry in a senior role? Apple has all of them.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:30 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by macs4nw View Post
Nice to read something with a bit more positive spin on it, for a change; although always interesting to read other people's take on what's current and newsworthy, sometimes these forums can get a bit too bleak and negative in their tone.
If and when apple makes a new high again, everyone will jump back and claim they knew it. When EVERYONE seems negative and there is BLOOD ON THE STREETS thats when it is time to BUY. I will definitely add to my position tomorrow.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:32 PM   #142
KPOM
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Originally Posted by Myiphone7 View Post
It'll be like oracle intel msft and every single stock chart you see that imploded during the tech bubble of 2000-2002
None of those companies was trading at 9 times earnings in 2000.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:33 PM   #143
mrsir2009
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Originally Posted by Aluminum213 View Post
We are now truly in the Tim Cook era

Apple maps: LOL
iOS 6: the most pathetic update in iOS history
iPhone 5: only slightly taller, market wanted bigger screens like SG3
iPad 3: dead after 6 months
iPad mini: leaked months in advance, no retina
iMac: major supply issues


this is the Tim Cook era
Ping. Enough said.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:35 PM   #144
ghost187
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No. See my post here



No. You are confusing book value per share with the market price. The market price is almost always different because of expectations of future cash flows, but you knew that already, didn't you. Again, see my post here.
I understanding what you are saying but Apple is becoming soooo undervalued that it is starting to became ridiculous. Imagine if I had a restaurant that had $135K cash, owned the building and equipment worth $200K, and made $60K and growing yoy profit per year, would you not buy it for $460K?
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:35 PM   #145
jlasoon
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Apple's CASH balance is only slightly less than that. Remember, they just announced record earnings and revenue. Even if they pulls a 1999 Microsoft and stagnate completely they are worth more than $175/share.
Nope! Don't look at APPL singularly. Look at the big picture. Look at what's happening around you. Too many assumptions again. APPL is not immune from outside economic forces.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:35 PM   #146
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Seems to me the stock should rise dramatically from here on out

This last quarter was rougher than it should have been for Apple for a number of likely one-time-only reasons:

1) Supply constraints on virtually every product line Apple sells, including both the iPhone 4 AND 5 and the new iPad Mini AND the iMac. So there's no indication of a lack of demand for Apple's products in these numbers at all - they simply can't fill demand fast enough.

2) Multiple new products deployed pretty much all at once. This caused a huge bump in their costs for the quarter which they weren't able to successfully completely offset with sales, since they couldn't keep up with demand.

But both of these issues will only hit that quarter. From here on out their margins should recover and sales shouldn't continue to be limited by supply constraints.

Their challenge as I see it in 2013 is to avoid a repeat of 2012 by not releasing so many new products in the final couple of months of the year, as they've repeatedly shown they simply cannot ramp up manufacturing on their new designs fast enough to meet overwhelming demand during the holiday period.

That's why I suspect we're going to get a new iPad Mini as well as a new iPhone sometime around midyear. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new MaxiPad (couldn't resist, sorry) hit sometime before Halloween, either.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:35 PM   #147
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No. See my post here



No. You are confusing book value per share with the market price. The market price is almost always different because of expectations of future cash flows, but you knew that already, didn't you. Again, see my post here.
my problem with your explanation is that it is wall street cronies. Ya, different because of expectations, whose expectations? Apple's or some made up number? Trends is stronger than expectation, the reason the stock is dropping isn't because they didn't hit a huge chunk of people's expectations at the same time, it's because it's not hitting the wall street expectations so nobody wants to be the last person standing holding this stock. At this point you're no longer talking fundamentals.

It's like saying, you and a bunch of people are in a city with one bridge out. someone "predicts" an earthquake tomorrow, even though scientists say it won't happen for a year. are you going to take that risk and be the last person out of the city? is that based your own fundamental belief of science or somebody else's?
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:36 PM   #148
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China Mobile

China Mobile will have more leverage now to lower handset costs or subsidy or whatever the sticking point is...and Tim will play ball.

The thing that worries me is that being the biggest mobile provider in China means your average customer is poor and can't afford an iPhone. Everyone acts like China Mobile is going to save Apple once the deal is done.
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:37 PM   #149
tknelson
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Originally Posted by HiRez View Post
I lost almost 10X that much just after the market closed. Today. If I can be happy, you can too.
That's funny, I also lost almost exactly 10X $2370. Then again, I bought a lot of my shares at <$5 (think 2002-2003). So... easy come, easy go, I guess!
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Old Jan 23, 2013, 10:38 PM   #150
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Apple needs to have something to show off before WWDC. Going a whole quarter (and almost two) without anything being launched or announced is unheard of in the tech world. I don't see the roadmap that was posted on this site earlier this month playing out, because it doesn't have any major launches until the middle of the year. Maybe the rumored cheap iPhone will have a March launch, but thats unlikely, and if it happens it won't be progressive.

In March Apple needs to demo a refined iOS 7 and begin developer testing so they can launch the final version at WWDC.

And as mad as it might make people, I think that Apple needs to launch a redesigned iPad and an iPad mini with retina display before WWDC.

And finally, Apple needs to make all of its notebooks ALL RETINA (And retina design for MBP's) AT THE CURRENT BASELINE PRICE POINTS (i.e. Retina MBA 11" Costs $999). That's the kind of game changer Apple needs to push the competition to perform better.

Also it would be nice if the 13" Pro got truly pro internals as well. Quad core haswell, and discreet graphics.

P.S. The higher speced 13" MBP would not sacrifice battery life because of haswell's power saving architecture. And the retina MBA would be usable because of the sufficiently faster Intel HD 5000 graphics.
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