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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:44 PM   #101
Technarchy
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Originally Posted by blackhand1001 View Post
Even google is a better investment as there source of revenue is pretty much guaranteed.
AOL..Yahoo...Myspace
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:46 PM   #102
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Where is this world? Other than a few people here, I never here anyone else wish to talk to their TV (a few will cuss at it but I think that's different).

And then, by extension, if we are imagining that Apple is going to be able revolutionize all programming so that only "good programming" will be viewable, I think we are dreaming a dream way too big.

What Apple can do is deliver a beautiful piece of TV hardware with a quality UI. They can build in TV niceties too. Beyond that, the rest of the grand dream is hooked to a bunch of other players deciding to take huge financial hits to help Apple make more money and (somehow) us consumers pay much less than we do now... all the while with Apple's replacement flowing through the very same broadband pipes entirely controlled from the companies that would be taking the financial hit if Apple's "answer" was allowed to take over.

I hear it will come with Unicorns & fairies too.
Exactly, the apple tv is not going to be huge like people keep saying. That market is already saturated and people aren't going to pay extra for the apple logo on something like that. There are already competing smart tv's already. Not to mention most people have a gaming console which all have netflix streaming and the like already. If you don't have that you can buy a 50 dollar roku streamer anyway. TV's are a low margin business. Apple will not be able to charge the rates they would want margin wise without alienating all the customers. Its just not going to be a huge hit.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:47 PM   #103
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AOL..Yahoo...Myspace
Those were web portals and email companies. Google on the other hand is the undisputed search engine of choice for the majority of people.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:47 PM   #104
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AOL..Yahoo...Myspace
Of those three - only one would be remotely equivalent - Yahoo. And Yahoo became the Yahoo of today because of Google.

Until someone comes along with a better search/ad model than Google - I'd say Google's revenue stream is well protected.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:48 PM   #105
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Banked 7grand on my 410 puts. Good week.
Sure you did, Gecko.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:49 PM   #106
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What I meant was that you're playing the see-saw game, talking about getting back on. the problem is that in current market conditions, there's a lot more downward pressure on Apple because their competitive moat is eroding. Their primary guide in innovation gone, it's going to be much harder for them to even maintain in a tech market that's maturing.

That's the nature of the industry and I would probably instead focus those resources on the next thing before others catch on to it. All eyes are already on Apple, so the propensity for it to be overpriced (even now) is much higher than its likelihood of being underpriced at any point in its earnings slope.

On the one hand I think it's good you have a focus on hardware manufacturers as valuation is always easier when you have countable widgets in current assets. But on the other hand it looks like you're very tech and finance centric.

One of my biggest gainers of last year was a farm machinery manufacturer. I acquired it considerably underpriced after having researched its management, its operating cash flows and its competitive moat. All of which took maybe inside of fifteen minutes.

There's a different school of thought there that high reward can actually come at lowest degrees of risk when you know where to look.... it basically amounts to the idea of acquiring a dollar worth of assets for sixty cents. Every time you bank on the hope that the dollar worth asset you paid fifteen dollars for will go even higher, you're taking on more risk for less reward.

Just something to chew on....
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:50 PM   #107
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I've never said anything about whether people should buy or sell the stock. But I do think its panic selling right now. I mean what happened with the company since September that would warrant a 40% sell off? When prior to September Wall Street was running it up to $700 with $900 and $1000 price targets?
When the Wall Street hype machine is pitching ridiculous price targets, they're probably selling their holdings. When they're bashing a stock and forecasting new lows, they're probably buying. When the masses finally move, it's already way after Wall Street has got theirs, and they just profit from the naive sheep's fear (on the way down) and greed (on the way up).

Nothing to be confused about. Wall Street makes money either way.

And AAPL is just a stock. There's thousands of others in which to invest (and Samsung is not even one of them). AAPL is not an Apple product (we should not apply brand loyalty to pieces of paper). If AAPL is low enough for Apple, they could take some of their cash hoard and buy it. Are they? But investors should?
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:52 PM   #108
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This is what happens when you go mainstream and dont stick to the original philosophy.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:52 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by samcraig View Post
Of those three - only one would be remotely equivalent - Yahoo. And Yahoo became the Yahoo of today because of Google.

Until someone comes along with a better search/ad model than Google - I'd say Google's revenue stream is well protected.
well actually their biggest competition is Facebook. With ad revenues going down and Google not figuring out mobile yet, I think Google still has headwinds ahead
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:52 PM   #110
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This is what happens when the average everyday joe thinks AAPL can do no wrong. Nothing grows forever, people buying shares in the mid 600's and higher are all holding a big loser right now.

People need to learn how wall street works, when everyone is buying you should be selling, when no one says it can go down is time to get out. People got greedy. Stocks take the staircase up and elevator down.
Agreed. Also people need to understand markets move up in search of sellers and down in search of buyers. AAPL needs to create a balanced market (it is in imbalance now) before it can search for new higher values should the market decide that is well. I believe fair price is around late 300s and possibly look out for 425s in coming weeks.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:53 PM   #111
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It needs to be said again

Apple Stock is not the same as Apple the Company.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:53 PM   #112
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Exactly, the apple tv is not going to be huge like people keep saying. That market is already saturated and people aren't going to pay extra for the apple logo on something like that. There are already competing smart tv's already. Not to mention most people have a gaming console which all have netflix streaming and the like already. If you don't have that you can buy a 50 dollar roku streamer anyway. TV's are a low margin business. Apple will not be able to charge the rates they would want margin wise without alienating all the customers. Its just not going to be a huge hit.
The same arguments were made for the iPhone and iPad. Too expensive, market dominated by RIM, fad, not needed, no function, microsoft tried and failed this....yada yada yada.

Release a product that is the next leap in the user experience and it will sell. Growth does not have to turn out a mountain of money on day 1, it simply has to be a revenue stream that didn't exist before and has potential. Do you think Neflix or AMZN are actually priced according to sales? Growth investors are excited at their potential, so money is flooding into them, even though they make no money. Same with FB and LinkedIn.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:54 PM   #113
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Sure you did, Gecko.
Lol. I actually did kid you not. I trade in a chatroom with others and we all banked today on our puts and GOOG. NFLX as well as PG were nice to us as well. I bought the 410 puts on a earnings gamble last minute.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 01:57 PM   #114
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well actually their biggest competition is Facebook. With ad revenues going down and Google not figuring out mobile yet, I think Google still has headwinds ahead
Google hasn't figured out mobile what? Advertising?

Facebook is a valuable search tool that makes facebook money?

Right now - I don't see Facebook as that much competition for Google except the fact they are kicking Google +'s ass.

Facebook is the (advanced version) AOL of the current generation. Remember when everyone was on AOL, the chat rooms, buddy lists, etc. I don't suspect they will suffer the same fate as AOL - but they could. In the tech world - you just never know. Who would have predicted FB's rise? Or Palm's demise?
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:03 PM   #115
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Banked 7grand on my 410 puts. Good week.
Agree. Last week it was me and 520 puts.

Although I can see why a trading newbie could not possibly see how you can turn $500-1000 into $6-7000 in a few days. Hint. It's true. But you can lose it all too.

Let's just say the odds are a million times better than the lottery.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:09 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Supermule View Post
This is what happens when you go mainstream and dont stick to the original philosophy.
Before Apple went mainstream the stock was about $7 and Dell was encouraging "them to shut it all down and give the proceeds to the shareholders".

$7 to $440 is a dream I'd love to have again and again. $7 to $700 was insanity for the naive rationale of the same dream.

There's nothing wrong with mainstream. The issue- IMO- is that the pace of next big thing innovation needed to keep up with expectations of record growth failed. We needed a bona-fide next big thing- not a Mac and not an iDevice or variation thereof- and we didn't get it. As such, the established product mix was not strong enough to keep the slope of growth as steep as it has been... especially projecting forwards from here.

2001: iPod
2007: iPhone (6 years later)
2010: iPad (3 years)
2012: needed next big thing (2 years)
2013-14: needed next, next big thing (1 year)

Else, refine and refine old, next big things and switch from being a growth company to an income (dividend) company. That switch is always required. A company can't rapidly grow every year forever... even Apple.

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Originally Posted by samcraig View Post
It needs to be said again

Apple Stock is not the same as Apple the Company.
Exactly. And those people selling AAPL are not switching to Samsung either.

Nor, does a falling share price = "AAPL is doomed". Apple doesn't even need to sell stock anymore to fund it's business (we fund it by buying Apple stuff hand over fist).

Nor, does it mean Apple products are bad. They just set records for sales of their products. A whole world is buying Apple products at a rapid clip. In some cases Apple can't make enough of them.

It simply means that investors holding AAPL are choosing to not hold it. Maybe they are shifting investments to other companies or maybe they are going to cash. Maybe they are cashing out in anticipation of needing the money to buy the new Apple Television? At some point, the very same investors could all decide that AAPL has hit some kind of bottom and is about to roar again and all flood right back in, which would drive the share price right back up again.

Buyers buying faster than sellers selling generally moves a stock's price up and vice versa. Right now people want to sell more than buyers want to buy. It can't stay that way forever but it can stay that way for quite a bit further from here. Or not.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:16 PM   #117
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Maybe time to start buying Apple again?
Is it a good time to buy?
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:16 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by chakdey View Post
I say the sell will stop at $420. I sure hope cook has something up his sleeve I can't afford any more losses.
Yes, 422 or 360. My guess is 422.

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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:18 PM   #119
samcraig
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Originally Posted by HobeSoundDarryl View Post
Before Apple went mainstream the stock was about $7 and Dell was encouraging "them to shut it all down and give the proceeds to the shareholders".

$7 to $440 is a dream I'd love to have again and again. $7 to $700 was insanity for the naive rationale of the same dream.

There's nothing wrong with mainstream. The issue- IMO- is that the pace of next big thing innovation needed to keep up with expectations of record growth failed. We needed a bona-fide next big thing- not a Mac and not an iDevice or variation thereof- and we didn't get it. As such, the established product mix was not strong enough to keep the slope of growth as steep as it has been... especially projecting forwards from here.

2001: iPod
2007: iPhone (6 years later)
2010: iPad (3 years)
2012: needed next big thing (2 years)
2013-14: needed next, next big thing (1 year)

Else, refine and refine old, next big things and switch from being a growth company to an income (dividend) company. That switch is always required. A company can't rapidly grow every year forever... even Apple.

----------



Exactly. And those people selling AAPL are not switching to Samsung either.

Nor, does a falling share price = "AAPL is doomed". Apple doesn't even need to sell stock anymore to fund it's business (we fund it by buying Apple stuff hand over fist).

Nor, does it mean Apple products are bad. They just set records for sales of their products. A whole world is buying Apple products at a rapid clip. In some cases Apple can't make enough of them.

It simply means that investors holding AAPL are choosing to not hold it. Maybe they are shifting investments to other companies or maybe they are going to cash. Maybe they are cashing out in anticipation of needing the money to buy the new Apple Television? At some point, the very same investors could all decide that AAPL has hit some kind of bottom and is about to roar again and all flood right back in, which would drive the share price right back up again.

Buyers buying faster than sellers selling generally moves a stock's price up and vice versa. Right now people want to sell more than buyers want to buy. It can't stay that way forever but it can stay that way for quite a bit further from here. Or not.
The problem with the "general public" and many on this forum (and I admit I am generalizing) is that they see a stock, they read the hype and the stock goes up up up and they say that rise is just going to keep going. And/or they see that AAPL was once at 700+ and assume that's a new baseline when in actuality - it was a high. There's nothing wrong with that. AAPL being at $400 is still a great stock - and it's P/E is strong. It might not make daytraders or even short/long term (new) buyers rich - but it's a solid stock.

You know - among other things in my portfolio - I own shares in WMT. When everything else was tanking in the market - while WMT took a hit - comparitively - my money invested there (and still) has been "safer" than other stocks were and are. That segment of my investment might not make me rich - but it's a nice nest egg that I see regular dividends from and considering I bought back when it was $15 a share and it's not only split a few times and gone up past $60 - it's been a good solid stock. Certainly better return than my bank has been giving me lately...
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:21 PM   #120
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Is it a good time to buy?
There's a lot of other stocks available. AAPL is not the ONLY opportunity to buy. If you can find a stock for $20 that could run to $40, you'll make 100% (a double). If you want to get a double on AAPL from here, it has to rise to about $890. Which seems more likely... or even easier?

There are thousands of stocks available to investors. AAPL is just one of them.

Picking bottoms has cost plenty of investors a lot of money.

Choose wisely.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:22 PM   #121
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...but look at those profit margins, the envy of corporations everywhere!
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:27 PM   #122
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The problem with the "general public" and many on this forum (and I admit I am generalizing) is that they see a stock, they read the hype and the stock goes up up up and they say that rise is just going to keep going. And/or they see that AAPL was once at 700+ and assume that's a new baseline when in actuality - it was a high. There's nothing wrong with that. AAPL being at $400 is still a great stock - and it's P/E is strong. It might not make daytraders or even short/long term (new) buyers rich - but it's a solid stock.
That's right... right up to that last sentence. Actually the day traders love quick stock movements... up or down is irrelevant (as long as they can guess which way). It's the big, quick movements that put the "day" in day trading. Yesterday's massive move was fantastic for them (if they played for the bear).

$7 to $700 is for the "buy & hold" crowd. Gains were being made at a fairly fast clip but only days like yesterday were particularly big moves.

Lots of day traders that know how to play it both ways are very happy with the last few days action. It's the buy & hold crowd that sweats the bear... because they let paralysis, misplaced brand loyalty or hope make them keep hanging on as a stock falls and falls and falls. It's been falling for what- 4 or 5 months now? That's called a trend... a bear trend.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:29 PM   #123
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That's right... right up to that last sentence. Actually the day traders love quick stock movements... up or down is irrelevant (as long as they can guess which way). It's the big, quick movements that put the "day" in day trading.

$7 to $700 is for the "buy & hold" crowd. Gains were being made at a fairly fast clip but only days like yesterday were particularly big moves, which are ideal for the day traders.

Lots of day traders that know how to play it both ways are very happy with the last few days action. It's the buy & hold crowd that sweats the bear... because they let paralysis... or misplaced brand loyalty... or hope make them keep hanging on as a stock falls and falls and falls. It's been falling for what- 4 or 5 months now. That's called a trend... a bear trend.
You're right. I was really referring to the average joe's that aren't THOSE kind of day traders. Like the advice you gave above - better to find low priced stocks and watch them move vs buying it at $400 a share with a short term goal of getting rich off it. Unless you have unlimited buying power
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:30 PM   #124
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Is it a good time to buy?
Pro: AAPL is a safe stock that is definitely oversold and offers a dividend. Over the next year you can expect it to add another 40 billion to its bank account while rolling out decent updates to its Apple products. It has shown strong growth in China and a deal with China Mobile can't be too far away. Don't forget that you get a 2.65% dividend that while modest, is certainly a good sign of stability.

Con: AAPL is in total free fall mode with many institutions dumping. I would be pleasantly surprised if it rally's from 445. It will likely go lower. At this point, I would be giving it at least a week or 2 and hope that you see some sign of bottom end support. As long as you are in before February 11, you will get this quarters dividend.

Moral of the story: Your call! Always risk with investing.
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Old Jan 25, 2013, 02:31 PM   #125
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Honestly these huge drops every day are just making Wall Street look stupid right now. I mean what really constitutes all this panic selling?
"Just making" ? You know very little of wall street do you? Stock prices have little to do with actual performance of a company. Stock markets is about profits nothing more.
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