Go Back   MacRumors Forums > News and Article Discussion > MacRumors.com News Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:34 PM   #126
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors 68040
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Hobe Sound, FL (20 miles north of Palm Beach)
Yes, I look at $440 and see a mountain to be climbed to get a double. That's not just $700 again but way above an all-time record.

Then, I look at something like Facebook when it was at $18 and see the very same upside (double) opportunity if it can make it to just $36.

That doesn’t make Facebook a better company than Apple, or Facebook products(?) better products than Apple products. It just illustrates that investing in stock is entirely disconnected from the usual spin, koolaid, etc that flies around here. AAPL could halve itself from here but Apple the company will be no worse off (just not as valuable on paper as some other companies). So what? Why care about executive bragging rights?

What we're usually caring about is how great the next Mac or iDevice is going to be. And they will still arrive... whether AAPL is at $100 or $1000 per share next week, near year or 10 years from now.
HobeSoundDarryl is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:37 PM   #127
Bubba Satori
macrumors 68040
 
Bubba Satori's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: B'ham
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyMacintosh View Post
Banked 7grand on my 410 puts. Good week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newton70 View Post
Sure you did, Gecko.
Boom!

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Squilly View Post
Is it a good time to buy?
Please don't get investing advice here.
You're welcome.
Bubba Satori is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:40 PM   #128
MTL18
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by HobeSoundDarryl View Post
Yes, I look at $440 and see a mountain to be climbed to get a double. That's not just $700 again but way above an all-time record.

Then, I look at something like Facebook when it was at $18 and see the very same upside (double) opportunity if it can make it to just $36.

That doesn’t make Facebook a better company than Apple, or Facebook products(?) better products than Apple products. It just illustrates that investing in stock is entirely disconnected from the usual spin, koolaid, etc that flies around here. AAPL could halve itself from here but Apple the company will be no worse off (just not as valuable on paper as some other companies). So what? Why care about executive bragging rights?

What we're usually caring about is how great the next Mac or iDevice is going to be. And they will still arrive... whether AAPL is at $100 or $1000 per share next week, near year or 10 years from now.
What you are forgetting is that investing in stocks that make no money and are pumped up on future earnings potential has incredible risk. You can double your money in a month, and you can half it at the same time.

The Netflix ride is a great example: 50 ---> 300 ---> 50 ---> 170 today (up 70 dollars in 2 days).

Growth stocks have tremendous risk. The beauty of AAPL is that it has growth stock potential (a la 2012), but offers the support of a blue-chip (tons of cash in the bank, lots of revenue/profit, dividend).

I would never recommend that someone invest in a company like FB or NFLX without monitoring their account daily. Risk vs. Reward. There is not a lot of risk in AAPL over the next 24 months. FB or NFLX could be worthless by then.
MTL18 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:41 PM   #129
jlasoon
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Orlando, FL
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSUSpartan View Post
Yes the whole industry where the smartest people in the world works are stupid.
Yes, Bernanke is a #$%^&* genius. The guy missed the biggest bubble in history. Yet I figured it out and profited greatly.
__________________
09 2.26ghz Octo, Cinema Display 27", MacBook Air, iPhone 4, iPad 16gb 3G, TV 2G,
jlasoon is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:41 PM   #130
DaveN
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: May 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by billystlyes View Post
When Apple starts innovating again?
So Samsung can start copying Apple again? Larger screen size is not real innovation.
DaveN is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:42 PM   #131
jlasoon
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Orlando, FL
Quote:
Originally Posted by NT1440 View Post
Because the global economy is a house of cards
This,

Understatement of the year.
__________________
09 2.26ghz Octo, Cinema Display 27", MacBook Air, iPhone 4, iPad 16gb 3G, TV 2G,
jlasoon is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:45 PM   #132
blackhand1001
macrumors 68030
 
blackhand1001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTL18 View Post
The same arguments were made for the iPhone and iPad. Too expensive, market dominated by RIM, fad, not needed, no function, microsoft tried and failed this....yada yada yada.

Release a product that is the next leap in the user experience and it will sell. Growth does not have to turn out a mountain of money on day 1, it simply has to be a revenue stream that didn't exist before and has potential. Do you think Neflix or AMZN are actually priced according to sales? Growth investors are excited at their potential, so money is flooding into them, even though they make no money. Same with FB and LinkedIn.
No the markets for smartphones and tablets was not saturated at all. The difference is that the market for televisions is.
__________________
Macbook 2008
HP Dv7t - 2.53 ghz, 9600m GT, WSXGA+, 120gb ssd, 250 gb 7200rpm
Core i7 3770k, 8gb ram, 2x 120gb sdd raid0, 500gb hdd, GTX 460
Moto X Dev Edition (VZW) Nexus 7
blackhand1001 is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:46 PM   #133
MyMacintosh
macrumors member
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocketman View Post
Agree. Last week it was me and 520 puts.

Although I can see why a trading newbie could not possibly see how you can turn $500-1000 into $6-7000 in a few days. Hint. It's true. But you can lose it all too.

Let's just say the odds are a million times better than the lottery.
Lol niiiice. But yeah I usually don't play earnings but I love trading. Today AAPL puts have treated me well. I'm also swinging HAL.
MyMacintosh is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:46 PM   #134
DaveN
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: May 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by samcraig View Post
Of those three - only one would be remotely equivalent - Yahoo. And Yahoo became the Yahoo of today because of Google.

Until someone comes along with a better search/ad model than Google - I'd say Google's revenue stream is well protected.
Duckduckgo.com

For people who don't trust google monitoring their every move.
DaveN is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:47 PM   #135
Greg.
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: London, UK
ITT: People who don't understand financial markets pretend they're experts on them.
__________________
13.3" MacBook Pro || OnePlus One || Google Nexus 7
Greg. is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:50 PM   #136
jlasoon
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Orlando, FL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avatar74 View Post
To have a comfortable margin of safety, using Graham's philosophy, they'd have to be trading somewhere between $230 and $270 per share (10-25% margin of safety) since the Graham Number is the theoretical absolute MAXIMUM one should pay.... but not the ideal bargain with a sensible margin of safety to insulate one's self from potential of catastrophic loss.
I've said it for quite some time,

support at $450,

followed by $175
__________________
09 2.26ghz Octo, Cinema Display 27", MacBook Air, iPhone 4, iPad 16gb 3G, TV 2G,
jlasoon is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:52 PM   #137
Larry-K
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
My friend who bought at $700 is only down $260 a share. Good thing she had a financial adviser.
Larry-K is online now   2 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:52 PM   #138
NedBookPro
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
The headline of this article makes it sound like it's an achievement.

It should read:
*Apple Slides Back* To The Second Most Valuable Publicly Traded Company in the World.

-------------------------------------------------------
You can't talk sense to a fan-boy
__________________
'10 MBP 13 iP 4S, iP 4, iP 3GS 2G iPod Touch 5G iPod nano 2G aTV Newton 110
NedBookPro is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:53 PM   #139
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors 68040
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Hobe Sound, FL (20 miles north of Palm Beach)
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTL18 View Post
What you are forgetting is that investing in stocks that make no money and are pumped up on future earnings potential has incredible risk. You can double your money in a month, and you can half it at the same time.

The Netflix ride is a great example: 50 ---> 300 ---> 50 ---> 170 today (up 70 dollars in 2 days).

Growth stocks have tremendous risk. The beauty of AAPL is that it has growth stock potential (a la 2012), but offers the support of a blue-chip (tons of cash in the bank, lots of revenue/profit, dividend).

I would never recommend that someone invest in a company like FB or NFLX without monitoring their account daily. Risk vs. Reward. There is not a lot of risk in AAPL over the next 24 months. FB or NFLX could be worthless by then.
True, but rather than monitor daily, I just put in trailing stops. With AAPL, the trailing stop had risen to about $650 when it crossed $700. The trailing stop automatically bails one out when the stock falls to a certain point. It works just as well on a FB or NFLX as it does on a blue chip or AAPL.

For amateur investors who still can't bear to part with AAPL or for those believing today might be the buying opportunity on AAPL, I'd say put in a trailing stop at a percentage below today's price where you just can't see it falling. Then if it does fall through that, you lose today's price minus that exit price (or so). If it rises from here, the stop will trail it as it climbs. For example, if it runs right back up to $700, the trailing stop at- say- 6%- will be set at about $658, ready to bail you out of the stock if it then slips back down to that level or lower.

If you buy FB or NFLX or any others, I'd suggest doing the same. Then, you don't have to overly worry about the downside, yet you can ride it up as far as it might go.
HobeSoundDarryl is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:54 PM   #140
Technarchy
macrumors 601
 
Technarchy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Apple stock price was greatly inflated by investors that were in it for the short term, riding the iOS wave, and delusional new to Apple fanboys that think Apple should and could pull magic out its ass every six months.

The market is starting to settle down a bit and regain some normalcy for Apple.

This decline is no big surprise. It will probably spike again when Apple intros the next big thing, but I don't see Mac, or iOS sales alone ballooning stock price again, and if it does, at least everyone knows not to buy high.
__________________
Steve Jobs, January 9th 2007, 10:44am: "We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them."
Technarchy is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:55 PM   #141
Larry-K
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by fastlanephil View Post
He's just alive because he shorted Apple.
Larry-K is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:55 PM   #142
NT1440
macrumors G3
 
NT1440's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Hartford, CT
Quote:
Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
Apple stock price was greatly inflated by investors that were in it for the short term, riding the iOS wave, and delusional new to Apple fanboys that think Apple should and could pull magic out its ass every six months.

The market is starting to settle down a bit and regain some normalcy for Apple.

This decline is no big surprise. It will probably spike again when Apple intros the next big thing, but I don't see Mac, or iOS sales alone ballooning stock price again, and if it does, at least everyone knows not to buy high.
Every number is a record breaker, EXCEPT the stock price. That should tell anyone with a grain of common sense that something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
NT1440 is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 03:57 PM   #143
Technarchy
macrumors 601
 
Technarchy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by NT1440 View Post
Every number is a record breaker, EXCEPT the stock price. That should tell anyone with a grain of common sense that something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
It's the stock market. Something is always shady.
__________________
Steve Jobs, January 9th 2007, 10:44am: "We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them."
Technarchy is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:01 PM   #144
eyehop
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
I just had a flashback to 1995 when I was a lone mac user closet case and Win 95 was going to take the world by storm. Who'da thunk?
eyehop is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:03 PM   #145
NT1440
macrumors G3
 
NT1440's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Hartford, CT
Quote:
Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
It's the stock market. Something is always shady.
Agreed in full.
NT1440 is online now   1 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:08 PM   #146
bungiefan89
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Honestly these huge drops every day are just making Wall Street look stupid right now. I mean what really constitutes all this panic selling?
I'm no economist, but maybe it has something to do with Apple's success over the past few years. Since the iPhone 4, they've done phenomenally, with huge growth quarter after quarter after quarter. People saw the trend, so they jumped onboard the money-train.

Suddenly, they earn a lot, but not as much as people expected they would, so the extra people are jumping ship and cashing in their returns...

...yes, it's obvious I don't buy stocks at all, isn't it.
__________________
27" 2011 iMac, 3.4 GHz, 12GB RAM, 2GB VRAM - Late 2009 Macbook, 2.26 GHz, 4GB RAM - iPod touch 32GB 4g
bungiefan89 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:11 PM   #147
bencjedi
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by radicalcentrist View Post
It's freaking killing me that I bought at $605. I'm not selling (this is a long-term investment), but it's a little soul-crushing watching the stock keep dropping. It'll come back up, though, but it's hard to take right now.
I caved having bought in at $660. Bought 10 earlier in the year and sold 8 a week before the slide, so I am hanging onto 2 remaining shares. That's about all I can watch disappear more, God for bid it continues.
bencjedi is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:12 PM   #148
FrozenDarkness
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by samcraig View Post
Google hasn't figured out mobile what? Advertising?

Facebook is a valuable search tool that makes facebook money?

Right now - I don't see Facebook as that much competition for Google except the fact they are kicking Google +'s ass.

Facebook is the (advanced version) AOL of the current generation. Remember when everyone was on AOL, the chat rooms, buddy lists, etc. I don't suspect they will suffer the same fate as AOL - but they could. In the tech world - you just never know. Who would have predicted FB's rise? Or Palm's demise?
Google hasn't figured out mobile advertising yet, and also how to monetize android.

But it's not about "search" revenue, searching doesn't make google money per se. it's about search ad revenue. If I was a company and I want to advertise my services, I would, of course, like more data than less data so I can better direct my ads towards people who exhibit certain behaviors. Google does this with cookies and search history, Facebook does this with your friggn personal information. That's why I see them as direct competitors
FrozenDarkness is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:16 PM   #149
Radio
macrumors 68000
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Central California
Quote:
Originally Posted by billystlyes View Post
When Apple starts innovating again?
What one extra row of icons wasn't enough?

Sarcasm

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by billystlyes View Post
When Apple starts innovating again?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1080p View Post
Lulz... buy now and watch your money grow when Apple puts out a Siri powered TV.
Siri doesn't work well on my iPhone what makes you think it works ona tv
__________________
iPhone 5 32gb black; iPad (3rd Gen) 32 gb black -- iPhone 4 32 gb black-- iPod classic 64 gb
Radio is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Jan 25, 2013, 04:22 PM   #150
FrozenDarkness
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
I actually think an iTV makes no sense. why would they put themselves in a money losing business when they could just do it all from a small box like the appletv? I never understood this. what can't you do with an appletv that you can do with a full television?
FrozenDarkness is online now   1 Reply With Quote

Reply
MacRumors Forums > News and Article Discussion > MacRumors.com News Discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Similar Threads
thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Google Beats Out Apple as World's Most Valuable Brand MacRumors Mac Blog Discussion 126 May 27, 2014 02:53 PM
What if Apple wasn't publicly traded? scottrichardson Apple, Industry and Internet Discussion 5 Jan 31, 2014 12:39 PM
Apple is back as the most valuable company in the world rMBP15 Apple, Industry and Internet Discussion 2 Feb 7, 2013 11:08 AM
Does Apple, Inc.'s minimalism approach make it such a valuable company? PhiladelphiaX Apple, Industry and Internet Discussion 2 Dec 17, 2012 01:32 AM
Apple Becomes Most Valuable Publicly-Traded Stock Ever MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 162 Aug 24, 2012 11:41 AM

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:25 PM.

Mac Rumors | Mac | iPhone | iPhone Game Reviews | iPhone Apps

Mobile Version | Fixed | Fluid | Fluid HD
Copyright 2002-2013, MacRumors.com, LLC