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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:33 PM   #76
GoldenJoe
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With the exception of Apple's figures, this article is pure speculation. It is shameful to post this garbage, even for a rumor site.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:34 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by AaronEdwards View Post
You don't seem to grasp the meaning of anecdotal evidence.

I look outside and it snows. I call a friend, who lives a mile away, and ask him to look outside and tell me if it's snowing. He tells me it snowing.

Clearly it's snowing everywhere.
Or you could think and decide that it is snowing where he is and you are.

You could then go farther and extrapolate that it might be snowing in between and, if you know anything about meteorology, you could decide that this supposition was even likely. You could then investigate further by driving between his place and yours and find out that you are indeed correct. Or not. Then you would know.

Anecdotal evidence is useful for creating hypotheses. You have to then investigate to see if they are correct. I gave you two avenues of exploration - Apple vs Samsung profitability and the history of the North American Stock Market system - from which I gave one example and suggested there were many more.

Go forth an investigate my son...
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:37 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by BC2009 View Post
IDC exaggerating Samsung's performance again in their estimates.

Never mind what Apple did, Asus makes the Nexus 7. Amazon makes the Kindle tablets. Now ask yourself how many Galaxy Tabs you have seen in people's hands compared to Nexus 7 and Kindle Fire. Galaxy Tabs sell at two and three times the price of the Nexus 7 and Kindle.

iPads are everywhere. I went to Disneyland for New Years and people were standing in line for rides playing with iPads. It floored me. I asked one couple about it and they were from Australia. They said it was their cheapest way to get internet connectivity. Another couple I saw did not speak English -- they were from China and their iPad min was displaying everything in Chinese.

I did not see any Kindles or Nexus 7 tablets at Disneyland - and certainly no Galaxy Tabs. This could have been because Kindle and Nexus 7 simply don't have cellular connectivity at the low-end prices at which they normally sell, but I have seen plenty of those tablets out and about in other places since people use them for reading. I never see a Galaxy Tab. In fact, the last time I saw a Galaxy Tab that was not on a store shelf or being offered as a free promotion with a Samsung TV was over a year ago.

There is no way Galaxy Tab is out-selling the Nexus 7 or Amazon Kindle Fire. These estimates for Samsung are insanely high. Even Android fans attest to the Nexus 7 being the most popular Android tablet.
You're fogetting (as I did) that Samsung also makes the Nexus 10 now....

I'd venture a guess that the Nexus 10 and Note 10.1 are probably the tablets that propelled Samsung's sales.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:39 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by samcraig View Post
In with "Who cares about Marketshare - Apple makes the most profits" comment
Why have a problem with that statement when it's true? Anyone with common sense would have been able to see Apple would not be able to maintain their market share with an onslaught of new tablets being released from competitors. I'm sure Apple knew that they could not maintain that share and I doubt they're sweating it.

I find it hilarious that some people expect Apple to maintain some ridiculous % forever while competing against so many Android based tablets it's become hard to keep track of them all.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:42 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by appletoandroid View Post
Is this surprising? Lack of innovation leads to loss in marketshare. And people wonder why AAPL is falling. Growth in Samsung's innovations is remarkable, as they doubled their marketshare. I've been saying it all along, the end is near for Apple products, consumers are voting w/ their money!
You know they actually lost marketshare from the previous quarter.....

And Apple sells devices at a premium and still outsold Samsung by more than 3 to 1......

Yes I'd say customers are speaking loud and clear with their wallets.

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Originally Posted by 3N16MA View Post
Why have a problem with that statement when it's true? Anyone with common sense would have been able to see Apple would not be able to maintain their market share with an onslaught of new tablets being released from competitors. I'm sure Apple knew that they could not maintain that share and I doubt they're sweating it.
Especially an onslaught of "cheap" tablets.....

Which is why web traffic is a great indicator of which device is "better" than sales.

It's relatively easy for someone to impluse buy a Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire and then hate it and either re-sell it or never use it.....hence very low web traffic for those devices.

On the other hand, people have to think about purchasing an iPad - and those who do almost always love them and use them regularly. Hence high web traffic.

People always want to overreact to statistics......87% of statistics can be made to say whatever the statistician wants them to say.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:44 PM   #81
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I get sick of hearing about how Apple is always losing market share to Android. It's like hearing how Porsche is getting beaten to death by Toyota, Mitsubishi and Nissan. Apple's iPads are the only devices using iOS while Android tablets are made by easily dozens of companies of all sizes at every price point imaginable.

I really don't understand how these comparisons have any useful meaning. A small company selling even a few million tablets at a profit should be considered wonderful for that company. How does world-wide market share even matter? What should matter most is how many devices each company puts in the hands of consumers and the profits made from each sale. Porsche will never be able to compete for world-wide market share, but that doesn't make the company any less important to the automobile business.

You know how Wall Street always says Apple is going to lose out in China? Would you believe that Porsche sales have been climbing in double digit percentages in China for a few years? Wall Street is intentionally shafting Apple shareholders with pessimistic predictions.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:48 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by 3N16MA View Post
Why have a problem with that statement when it's true? Anyone with common sense would have been able to see Apple would not be able to maintain their market share with an onslaught of new tablets being released from competitors. I'm sure Apple knew that they could not maintain that share and I doubt they're sweating it.

I find it hilarious that some people expect Apple to maintain some ridiculous % forever while competing against so many Android based tablets it's become hard to keep track of them all.
Who said I had a problem with the statement. You don't have to be here very long to know that's the immediate direction the thread would take. I was being "cute."

And I agree - at the end of the day - it would be nearly impossible for Apple to maintain marketshare - for several reasons. For example - other manufacturers offer a different entry level price point. So no matter how great iOS and the iPad is - it's going to lose out to those that consider budget important. End of story.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:50 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by jrswizzle View Post
You know they actually lost marketshare from the previous quarter.....

And Apple sells devices at a premium and still outsold Samsung by more than 3 to 1......

Yes I'd say customers are speaking loud and clear with their wallets.

----------



Especially an onslaught of "cheap" tablets.....

Which is why web traffic is a great indicator of which device is "better" than sales.

It's relatively easy for someone to impluse buy a Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire and then hate it and either re-sell it or never use it.....hence very low web traffic for those devices.

On the other hand, people have to think about purchasing an iPad - and those who do almost always love them and use them regularly. Hence high web traffic.

People always want to overreact to statistics......87% of statistics can be made to say whatever the statistician wants them to say.
Seems to be the case. I don't doubt that there are consumers out there that love their Android tablet. However I wouldn't be surprised to find out that a good chunk consumers basically leave their tablet to sit and collect dust after the initial "I have a new tablet" phase it over. When a consumer buys an iPad it seems to be put through the paces and used on a daily basis as long as it's owned.

Apps play a big part in tablet longevity and the quantity/quality of iPad specific apps helps make it part of many peoples every day lives.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:52 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by johnny5k View Post
If my company started selling tablets, and one quarter has a 0.1% market share, and the next quarter has 1%, I would have increased my marketshare 1,000%! OMG! [head explodes]

Eventually there will be a olpc type deal to ship something like 50 million super-cheap Android tablets to 3rd world schools, and Apple's marketshare will absolutely plummet, even though they will have sold more iPad y/y. This has absolutely no bearing on Apple's business. They're not going after the "cheapest tablet" market, they've made that very clear.

Until Apple sells fewer iPads from one year to the next, they're still increasing their sales, and that's a very good thing. All this talk of Apple's demise because they're losing marketshare to cheap tablets is 1,000% hype.
Here's what I said:
"Samsung got a whooping 263.0% 4Q12/4Q11 growth. That's impressive!"

As an accountancy student, I completely understand the 263.0% 4Q12/4Q11 growth of Samsung. Samsung managed to have 107% 4Q12/4Q11 growth in market share (15.1% vs 7.3%). If Samsung can manage to maintain or improve this growth given the fact that they undergo intensive maketing and product development of their tablets, Samsung will then have more than 30% of 4Q13 tablet market share. Most probably by 4Q14, Samsung will overtake Apple of having the largest share of worldwide tablet shipments.

I'm talking of market growth/ market share here and not on which company managed to sell more. I agree that eventually Apple will lose its crown of having the world's largest share of tablet worldwide shipments.

I never mentioned Apple's demise just because they're losing market share to cheap tablets.

2013 is indeed an interesting year for Apple's performance.

Last edited by TheNextBigThing; Jan 31, 2013 at 01:59 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:54 PM   #85
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If you look at gizmodo/engadget, the new tablets aren't cheap/low margin models. Those kind of fizzled in the '11 holiday season.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:56 PM   #86
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I saw Samsung tablets sitting on Costco shelves.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:57 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Ryth View Post
Um...the real factual information is that El Bulli's (Apple) is not only taking in the biggest profits, it's also selling more then McDonalds (Samsung)
you are confusing margin with profit.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 01:59 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by appletoandroid View Post
Is this surprising? Lack of innovation leads to loss in marketshare. And people wonder why AAPL is falling. Growth in Samsung's innovations is remarkable, as they doubled their marketshare. I've been saying it all along, the end is near for Apple products, consumers are voting w/ their money!
That gave me a good laugh.

So innovation=rising/higher market share? Even if there is no innovation coming from Apple, I fail to see where Samsung's innovation is.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:01 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by pundit View Post
You can expect to see quicker growth by the companies that provide a more complete feature set.
And yet Apple products are in demand and bought by more people than were sold by Apple's 4 nearest competitors combined in Q4 2012. On top of that Apple *grew* its install base by more than those same 4 nearest competitors sold in the same quarter last year (again, combined). When you look at total numbers, Apple isn't producing stagnant products that no one wants to buy or use, that some here would have you believe.

Apple keeps selling more and more of these tablets year after year, and for some that strangely means failure.

Market share is a lie.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenJoe View Post
With the exception of Apple's figures, this article is pure speculation. It is shameful to post this garbage, even for a rumor site.
It's far from being pure speculation, and IDC is not the crystal ball reading firm you imply it is. These analyst firms do a lot of research to arrive at their numbers. They may not be 100% accurate 100% of the time, and sometimes they are wildly off, but they are absolutely *not* pure speculation - a lot of effort goes into these reports, I respect the work they do (I've worked directly with IDC and lots of others, and IDC are one of the best at "numbers"), they don't just pull this stuff out of their arses.

Last edited by WilliamLondon; Jan 31, 2013 at 02:09 PM.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:04 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by CHRIST DENN View Post
Here's what I said:
"Samsung got a whooping 263.0% 4Q12/4Q11 growth. That's impressive!"

As an accountancy student, I completely understand the 263.0% 4Q12/4Q11 growth of Samsung. Samsung managed to have 107% 4Q12/4Q11 growth in market share (15.1% vs 7.3%). If Samsung can manage to maintain or improve this growth given the fact that they undergo intensive maketing and product development of their tablets, Samsung will then have more than 30% of 4Q13 tablet market share. Most probably by 4Q14, Samsung will overtake Apple of having the largest share of worldwide tablet shipments.

I'm talking of market growth/ market share here and not on which company managed to sell more. I agree that eventually Apple will lose its crown of having the world's largest share of tablet worldwide shipments.

I never mentioned Apple's demise just because they're losing market share to cheap tablets.

2013 is indeed an interesting year for Apple's performance.
Your extrapolation falls apart when you consider marketshare won't increase linearly.....at a certain point it tails off (or in some cases may decline).

Even if they increase their sales by the same (or similar) percentage next year, there are too many variables that would likely affect marketshare percentage increase.

Apple has gotten to the point where even if they continue to sell more iPads year after year, their marketshare will likely stay relatively static.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:15 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post
I saw Samsung tablets sitting on Costco shelves.
I see iPads sitting on shelves at Best Buy, Radio Shack, Target, etc. What exactly is your point?
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:16 PM   #92
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I think the real problem that Apple faces is that there isn't going to be a ton of growth in the $500+ range for tablets. You can get a great tablet, in a convenient form-factor (10" is not convenient) for $200-300.

Thats where the market is settling, and thats why you've seen the biggest growth in sales of ipad minis.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:24 PM   #93
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I think the real problem that Apple faces is that there isn't going to be a ton of growth in the $500+ range for tablets. You can get a great tablet, in a convenient form-factor (10" is not convenient) for $200-300.

Thats where the market is settling, and thats why you've seen the biggest growth in sales of ipad minis.

Sounds good and all but where do you get sales figures for the iPad mini?
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:30 PM   #94
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So most people now decide that none of the various iPads are the best choice for them.

Somehow, I don't think that the Hedge Funds have much to worry about. Apple is a scrappy little underdog. They will survive.

----------

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Originally Posted by canman4PM View Post
Even if we assume Apple and Samsung sold every unit quoted in the article as "Shipped", Apple sold/shipped 22.9M units to Samsung's 7.9M units. People sure did vote with their money.
You are ignoring trends. Samsung is a company on its way up. Apple is a company on its way down.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:36 PM   #95
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Image


So most people now decide that none of the various iPads are the best choice for them.

Somehow, I don't think that the Hedge Funds have much to worry about. Apple is a scrappy little underdog. They will survive.

You are ignoring trends. Samsung is a company on its way up. Apple is a company on its way down.
Underdog? That's rich.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:37 PM   #96
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McDonald's has higher share of visitors than El Buli, I'd rather eat at El Buli. Britney Spears sells more albums than Maria Callas, I'd rather listen to Callas.



Bottom line. Samsung is Britney and McDonald's, Apple is Callas and El Bulli.

Seriously. Apple sells a WHOLE lot more iPhones than Mororola sells Razr Maxx HDs. Bottom line, Apple is McDonalds. Just look how they brag about the iTunes Store: Billions and Billions Served.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:49 PM   #97
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Your extrapolation falls apart when you consider marketshare won't increase linearly.....at a certain point it tails off (or in some cases may decline).

Even if they increase their sales by the same (or similar) percentage next year, there are too many variables that would likely affect marketshare percentage increase.

Apple has gotten to the point where even if they continue to sell more iPads year after year, their marketshare will likely stay relatively static.
I assumed ceteris paribus for simplicity. Of course there are too many variables that would likely affect market share percentage increase. But my point is that by fourth quarter of 2013, Samsung will probably have 30% market share of worldwide tablet shipments considering the trend of their market share growth. Like what happened the smartphone market share.

I agree that Apple has gotten to the point where even if they continue to sell more iPads year after year, their marketshare will likely stay relatively static.

When a firm achieved it's highest peak, there are only 2 possible scenarios - either to stay on top or to slip down. And the latter scenario is what is happening to Apple now.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:55 PM   #98
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I get sick of hearing about how Apple is always losing market share to Android. It's like hearing how Porsche is getting beaten to death by Toyota, Mitsubishi and Nissan. Apple's iPads are the only devices using iOS while Android tablets are made by easily dozens of companies of all sizes at every price point imaginable.

I really don't understand how these comparisons have any useful meaning. A small company selling even a few million tablets at a profit should be considered wonderful for that company. How does world-wide market share even matter? What should matter most is how many devices each company puts in the hands of consumers and the profits made from each sale. Porsche will never be able to compete for world-wide market share, but that doesn't make the company any less important to the automobile business.

You know how Wall Street always says Apple is going to lose out in China? Would you believe that Porsche sales have been climbing in double digit percentages in China for a few years? Wall Street is intentionally shafting Apple shareholders with pessimistic predictions.
Volkswagen owns Porsche.
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 02:58 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by CHRIST DENN View Post
I assumed ceteris paribus for simplicity. Of course there are too many variables that would likely affect market share percentage increase. But my point is that by fourth quarter of 2013, Samsung will probably have 30% market share of worldwide tablet shipments considering the trend of their market share growth. Like what happened the smartphone market share.

I agree that Apple has gotten to the point where even if they continue to sell more iPads year after year, their marketshare will likely stay relatively static.

When a firm achieved it's highest peak, there are only 2 possible scenarios - either to stay on top or to slip down. And the latter scenario is what is happening to Apple now.
No but the fact you are saying "Samsung will probably have 30% marketshare" is what I was referring to. Comparing the tablet marketplace to the smartphone marketplace is probably the biggest mistake you can make. You have entirely different subsets of consumers buying each device and a much wider range of pricing.

Also, I still hold that the Nexus 10 had a big part in Samsung's tablet success this year - do we know if they will be tapped for another Nexus tablet? No. What if the N10 was an Asus machine?

My point is, even at its simplest, you can't use year-over-year numbers to predict future success. Samsung was able to gain the dominant smartphone marketshare, in large part to their throwing everything at the wall to see what stuck. While they have since refined their strategy, they didn't start that way in tablets - nor could they have.

I'm not saying Samsung won't grow - but no tablet has shown any signs of truly competing with the iPad (with the Nexus 10/7 being the top on the android side imo) - and with the Surface Pro being released and other companies like Acer, Amazon and Asus continuing to refine their tablet strategies - the race for 2nd in the tablet market is a lot more crowded than in smartphones.

Percentage growth is incredibly deceiving - Apple sold roughly 7 million MORE tablets than they did last year, compared to Samsung's growth of roughly 5 million units.

I could take a $1 company and grow it to $10 and have 1000% growth year over year. Meanwhile, Billy Bob has a $1 billion company he takes to $2 billion and his growth is only 100%......yet he made a crap ton more than I did....
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Old Jan 31, 2013, 03:01 PM   #100
Michael Scrip
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In with "Who cares about Marketshare - Apple makes the most profits" comment
Quote:
Originally Posted by hayesk View Post
You forgot "but only Apple reports sales to end users. Shipments are stuck in the retail channel."

Seriously though, if the point of the study is to show Apple is becoming less of a dominant player, both of those comments are legitimate criticisms. Time for the other companies to grow up and stop deceiving us with BS "shipment" numbers.
So what is the result of Android having all that market share?

Right now... Android has 5 TIMES the smartphone market share of the iPhone. Yet the iPhone is as strong as ever. More developers still prefer developing for the iPhone... despite its tiny share of the market.

You'd think with Android at 75% of the market... developers would be all over it. Are they?

So what is the prize Android gets for being the leader in market share?

Is it just being able to say they are #1 ?

I haven't seen Android turn that lead into anything useful.
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