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Old Feb 22, 2013, 11:59 AM   #101
maxosx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amazing Iceman View Post
When you start seeing tat most people you knew carrying laptops in the past are now carrying Tablets instead, then you know it's a "Post-PC Era".

In my case, since I got my iPad 1, my MBP has stayed home.
All this reveals is that most people didn't need a computer in the first place, yet that's all there was at the time.

Now with the explosion of smartphones & tablets, many of which are woefully underutilized, it dilutes the numbers vs computers.

I see hoards of seniors 60 and up that will happily admit they hate computers, don't own or know how to use one, as they are clutching their iPhone so as to be seen with it and "be cool" like their adult kids.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 11:59 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by AppleScruff1 View Post
Here we go again.....................I'm making popcorn.
I just made popcorn. If you want to know how many pieces you will have to wait for IDC to publish estimates on it. They are planning to stand outside my house and try to determine by the strength of the popcorn odor.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:05 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by ironsienna View Post
He also predicted that iPad mini would never be a success...
This proves that apple related everything is not a cult since Steve cannot be a god and apple-land cannot be the promised land... Both have faults.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by maxosx View Post
All this reveals is that most people didn't need a computer in the first place, yet that's all there was at the time.

...

.
Remember CEOs, analysts and folks in general making fun of the iPad because they could not figure out the iPad's place in our lives?
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:05 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by Booch21 View Post
I fall into this category. I haven't fired up a laptop in years since getting my first iPad. I can do quite a bit from the living room on a tablet. When I need to go fire up the Mac, its usually for a darn good reason.
In my house we made the decision to get my ife the laptop, where I went with the combo iMac and iPad. But I agree that the iMac does not get as much usage as it used to. Having two daughters in college I can also say that the desktop almost does not exist for the younger crowd, laptop is as big as it gets. I think that in a few generations it will be laptops vs tablets with the desktop being for niche workers that do something that a laptop is not capable of.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:09 PM   #105
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Go Samsung!

Years ago when I first got an iPhone back in 2007, I never wanted to see Apple lose what they had with how popular that thing was. Then when Android came along, I still never wanted to see those phones over take Apple. Now after owning two Android devices, a Nexus 4 phone and a Nexus 7 tablet, I really don't care what happens to Apples iPad or iPhone.

I will always have a computer though. Can't see life without one.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:11 PM   #106
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The whole "Post PC" idea has been largely misunderstood as far as I can see.

Post PC doesn't mean the PC is dead and gone or no longer needed. I've always seen it as meaning a shift from the PC being the hub of our digital lives to being merely one of a range of connected devices. If there's a hub now that hub is the cloud! The PC is still a huge part of the digital landscape but it's no longer the only or even primary part.

Today I have four connected devices. My smartphone, my tablet, my laptop and my smart TV type box thing. Roll back five years and I had one - my laptop

Now, lets roll forward. My future self will have the above devices plus perhaps a couple of wearable connected devices - a Google Glass style AR device and a wrist mounted device perhaps - maybe one or two health monitoring items too. Add in a couple of smart environment devices (smart thermostat, home automation robot!) and you're heading into double digits. The PC will still be around but the way I interact with my digital life will spread way beyond that.

That's what Post PC means - it means the digital world, once defined by the desktop/laptop computer, will be a broader, wider, more varied place where dozens of smart, connected devices blur the lines between the digital and the analogue. Computing is getting more personal at the same time as getting more social. Our devices are getting closer to us (in our pockets, on our wrists) while our data is getting abstracted away and the services we use are moving to the cloud. This is the Post PC era - an era when we begin to merge with our technology and it with us. Spooky, scary and exciting, filled with opportunities and risks. I love it!
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:13 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by i.mac View Post

Remember CEOs, analysts and folks in general making fun of the iPad because they could not figure out the iPad's place in our lives?
It's amazing how far they've come.

In less than 2 years... there are 100 different tablets on the market.

Companies might not have known what to do with them... but they sure pushed them out into the market!

"Tablets are a mystery... let's make one..."

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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:17 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by Cuban Missles View Post
In my house we made the decision to get my ife the laptop, where I went with the combo iMac and iPad. But I agree that the iMac does not get as much usage as it used to. Having two daughters in college I can also say that the desktop almost does not exist for the younger crowd, laptop is as big as it gets. I think that in a few generations it will be laptops vs tablets with the desktop being for niche workers that do something that a laptop is not capable of.
The desktop is already niche - or at least very much on the way to being so. Laptops overtook desktops a few years back. If I recall, smartphones have already overtaken PC sales. In a decade tablets and smartphones will account for 75% of "computing devices" sold globally if I had to guess. In a generation or two, a "desktop PC" will seem as outmoded as a black and white TV seems to us. My grandkids will ask me if I ever saw one of those computers you couldn't move and that had to be "plugged in" to the internet.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:23 PM   #109
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I predict that the watch will be the future of computing and communication. Why carry a cell phone and a tablet? I am going to call it, "The Post, Post PC Era. Remember, you read it here first.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:28 PM   #110
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Right...

Or it could be that we're looking at percentages instead of quantities.
It could be that:
PC's last much longer, when it gets a little slow, you add RAM, change the vid card, etc, we don't buy a new PC often.
Phones are much cheaper, easier to lose, less upgradable, and a growing market, and hence they can be replaced much more easily and more often... more sales!

Just because the PC % share vs phones and ipads is shrinking, it doesn't mean PC's are dying out. It could equally mean that people are buying 8 phones in the time it takes them to replace a PC. Or less people are buying PC's because they're buying components and building them themselves.

I find the statistics here to be useless. All it really indicates is that phone and pad sales are growing. Just because PC sales are not growing as fast does not indicate any great amount fewer are being sold.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:32 PM   #111
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Shipments vs. sales? Returns? Ah, never mind

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
Actually, the data has spoken.

In iPad doesn't replace my MacBook--my work "truck"--but it DOES replace many people's Macs/PCs. In two ways:

1. Some people--enough to matter in the market--BUY an iPad instead of a PC. Doesn't necessarily mean they throw out the old PC, or that they never buy one again. It means they skip buying their next PC, let the old one make do in the corner for a lot longer, and buy the iPad instead.

2. People USE an iPad instead of a PC.

Off the top of my head, I can think of six people I know who replaced a PC or Mac with an iPad for daily use. They now rarely if ever touch their desktop/laptop. Does this mean they are doing less with computing than they used to? No, in fact all six of them are doing far MORE with the iPad than they ever did with a PC. Ease of use. We tech-heads forget HOW much it matters to so many people.

Example: a person I know who used a computer hours a day for communication, but was terrified of it and stuck with just the things she knew. She didn't know how to find or move files, perform updates, or even format text on a simple document! She didn't care enough to learn, and so the whole thing annoyed her. She got Windows malware about once a year.

Then someone gave her an iPad (not me!) and she didn't want it. Why use something new and even more unknown to do the same things she sort of had a handle on with the PC? So she decided to sell it.

Some months later, I was talking to her on the phone and realized she was doing her taxes herself, online--something she never would have attempted in the past. Turns out she wasn't on the PC--she was on the iPad doing it. She has more apps on that thing than she used in her entire pre-iPad life. She now does digital art and photo manipulation and sells her work as a side-income. She barely knew digital art existed on PC. Her iPad as become her TV. She bought a keyboard for it and now she doesn't miss even the typing on the PC. (She also got a cheap Android phone and hates it--too much troubleshooting. A switch to iPhone is planned.)

The other people I know could tell similar stories. No, none of them were hard-core tech-heads like me, comfortable tinkering and troubleshooting. They're not the people that frequent tech forums. But they are the majority!

(I even know one person who uses an iPod Touch to replace a PC. It sees a lot of use every day, for gaming, email, web, social media, video--and pocket convenience plus ease of use are so appreciated that the old PC almost never gets used.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Asia8 View Post
Just because the PC % share vs phones and ipads is shrinking, it doesn't mean PC's are dying out. It could equally mean that people are buying 8 phones in the time it takes them to replace a PC. Or less people are buying PC's because they're buying components and building them themselves.

I find the statistics here to be useless. All it really indicates is that phone and pad sales are growing. Just because PC sales are not growing as fast does not indicate any great amount fewer are being sold.
You're right that stats have to be looked at carefully and critically. We don't even KNOW shipments (much less sales)--people are only estimating.

But if even if iPads are slowing PC growth (rather than actually shrinking the PC market already) that's still a shift. And even if iPads are only PART of that slowing growth, that's still a shift. Unless you think they are not a significant part of it--but they clearly are.

As for usable lifetime, I don't know anyone with an iPad (even an iPad 1) who has had it stop working. I've known a LOT of Windows PCs that died or were scrapped in less time than the iPad has been out. And people building their own PCs or home-repairing them are a tiny niche, which only seems bigger when you're on a tech forum. The trend toward small, light, convenient PCs (Air and clones) isn't going to boost that practice either.

I do think people are keeping PCs longer... but in many cases, they're doing it because they don't NEED it enough to bother replacing it! Not because it's working well for them. The iPad came in and filled the need enough of the time (doesn't have to be 100%) that the old, limping PC can make do as is.

That too is only a fraction of people--but it's a big enough (and fast growing) fraction that it's a real trend, affecting how people BUY and USE PCs.

You could say PC's aren't dead yet, or that they'll never fully die. But the trend is in motion and is not going to reverse. Use whatever term you like instead of Post-PC, but things are not going back to the way they were. PCs will be rare for personal use, and then nearly unheard of. In 3 years? 10? I don't know. But it's inevitable. PCs (including Macs) will be the "trucks" just as Jobs predicted. They'll be used for certain kinds of work and certain hard-core hobbyists, and therefore, like trucks, they'll hardly be unheard of. But for personal use, they will be. But even those "trucks" will be Post-PC eventually: they'll become a lot more like the iPad. Some of those PCs by Lenovo and others, where you use them flat on a desk sometimes, are awkward and ahead of their time, but some version of that is where Apple and everyone will eventually be headed, even for the "trucks." Years? Probably--Apple won't rush in like some and do it badly. But in time. Macs will be more iPad-like than they are now, while still having the pro power iPads lack. PCs too.

Almost every kind of PC you see people with today will look as outdated as the non-flat displays in an older movie. Yes, even laptops: they're the first candidate to replace with an iPad for what most people do.

Last edited by nagromme; Feb 22, 2013 at 12:47 PM.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:32 PM   #112
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There will never be a post pc era.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:35 PM   #113
Michael Scrip
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Originally Posted by Asia8 View Post
Right...

Or it could be that we're looking at percentages instead of quantities.
It could be that:
PC's last much longer, when it gets a little slow, you add RAM, change the vid card, etc, we don't buy a new PC often.
Phones are much cheaper, easier to lose, less upgradable, and a growing market, and hence they can be replaced much more easily and more often... more sales!

Just because the PC % share vs phones and ipads is shrinking, it doesn't mean PC's are dying out. It could equally mean that people are buying 8 phones in the time it takes them to replace a PC. Or less people are buying PC's because they're buying components and building them themselves.

I find the statistics here to be useless. All it really indicates is that phone and pad sales are growing. Just because PC sales are not growing as fast does not indicate any great amount fewer are being sold.
Exactly.

PC sales are shrinking a little bit.... but 350 million laptops and desktops is still a huge number.

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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:50 PM   #114
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First of all there is no such market segment, if there was it would include cars

oh and the appliances others have mentioned.

I have to admit they keep on inventing new things to create and sell a report on. A bit like Buyers Guides and the myriad of other media outlets trying to get your face in front of them for an imprint

Pretty sure they are drying up so invention is innovation, even with words
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 01:15 PM   #115
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Smartphones are over-represented in that graph because they don't last as long. Many people replace their phones on a 2-year cycle, but might wait 4 years before upgrading a laptop. The increase in the size of the yellow bar represents people buying smartphones instead of dumbphones.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 01:27 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
Exactly.

PC sales are shrinking a little bit.... but 350 million laptops and desktops is still a huge number.

Image
Well, PC's just aren't getting that much more powerful these days. What can we really do now that we couldn't do when XP was being sold? I know many people still running the XP era machines because it works and they have no reason to upgrade. Maybe for gamers, enthusiasts and some work fields there may be a need, but to most people... it works, there's little incentive to buy a new PC.

Even me using my computer all day everyday has been using the same laptop for 3 years now, it's just started to struggle with Windows 8, so I upgraded from 4gb of ram to 16gb of ram and it's like a new machine all over again. I was planning to buy a new machine, but now I don't feel the need.

My phone on the other hand... It really needs replacing, it's a year old and just can't keep up with todays apps. No way too add ram or hdd space either, it's a new one or nothing.

I just feel that the reason for reduced sales is we most all already have one, not that we don't need/want one. One that does most of what we need.

How many people these days don't have a laptop or computer?
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 01:28 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
This is where so many people miss the mark. Not everyone runs Photoshop or a cad program on their computer. Most/Many/Majority? I would guess well over 80% of home "PC" users do very little "work" or creating, but they do consume content, browse the web, email etc... All of which can be as easy on a tablet or smartphone. Screen size is personal choice, physical vs virtual keyboard is all choice. Bottom line these devices EASILY replace a desktop or laptop for ALL of what they use their computer for. The difference is these devices are cheaper, portable, long lasting batteries, and for the most part many, many times more user friendly than a PC.

Just because forums are full of tech geeks that own one of everything doesn't meant the other 98% of the consumer base cares what we think or how we use devices. Mainstream consumers can, and have already made the switch by the tens of millions. It's a fact that it's happening, not a theory.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 01:51 PM   #118
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This is just more propaganda from the tech companies to try and force everybody to ditch their PC's and buy and store all their content on-line. I hate hearing the post-PC argument. I have enjoyed having a big hulking PC running for all these years. My Imac now has taken the role of my Apple TV server with all my movies stored on an external drive. I still have my home built PC sitting upstair for grandma to use. It is loud, big, and uses a lot of electricity, but I like it.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 01:55 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by bossxii View Post
This is where so many people miss the mark. Not everyone runs Photoshop or a cad program on their computer. Most/Many/Majority? I would guess well over 80% of home "PC" users do very little "work" or creating, but they do consume content, browse the web, email etc... All of which can be as easy on a tablet or smartphone. Screen size is personal choice, physical vs virtual keyboard is all choice. Bottom line these devices EASILY replace a desktop or laptop for ALL of what they use their computer for. The difference is these devices are cheaper, portable, long lasting batteries, and for the most part many, many times more user friendly than a PC.

Just because forums are full of tech geeks that own one of everything doesn't meant the other 98% of the consumer base cares what we think or how we use devices. Mainstream consumers can, and have already made the switch by the tens of millions. It's a fact that it's happening, not a theory.
Equally so, in terms of the ability to perform these tasks on their tablets or smartphones, these users can do all of these on the computers they've had since the XP era, nothing has really changed that much since then. Hence reduced sales, no reason to upgrade. I still know nobody who has a tablet and no PC. And those who I know who have smartphones and no laptop, simply can't afford to buy a laptop yet.

Computers just aren't expiring or needing to be replaced as often as they used to be.

Smartphones and tablets are being bought and replaced because
(1) people don't have them - still relatively new
(2) they're cheap
(3) several phones for different providers - in some backwards countries
(4) convenient
(5) ones they bought a short time ago are already outdated and can't support the most recent apps

I don't believe they're dying, just that most people don't need to replace and upgrade computers anymore. They suit our most people needs and we're already saturated with them.

-=====-

Laptops taking the place of tower computers, maybe, because we're fitting much more power in these than we ever could before and they're already suiting most peoples needs.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 02:01 PM   #120
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I'll just add that I think there's a misunderstanding of the phrase Post-PC era. Because quite frankly - if there will be a post-PC era - it's beginning. We aren't IN it. Or even remotely near the end of a PC era.

Further - PCs have changed over the years. And they will continue to do so. So the term/what we call a PC will just change. So in effect, there will never be a post-PC era.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 02:08 PM   #121
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Steve Jobs said we're in a post-PC era. But guess what - tablets are computers too! HAHA OWNED



(Seriously, when Jobs said 'post-PC' did anybody actually think he meant 'no more computing devices whatsoever'? You would have to willfully misinterpret his comment to say that "we'll never be post-PC because our definition of a computer will change, heh".)
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 02:31 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post
It's your problem if you choose to exclude the other 2 major nationwide carriers in the US.

Oh... and the iPhone is on many regional carriers as well.

Bottom line... the iPhone is on many carriers in the US... it's not "just" on AT&T

Maybe it's your particular location... and that's an infrastructure problem.

But again... the iPhone is on many carriers in the US
I exclude them because they suck for being CDMA.

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That's fanboy talk with all do respect. I love Apple products but I'm also realistic. The smartphones made by Samsung can do practically the same things as an iPhone can do these days. In fact the Samsung devices can do much more when looking at the user possibilities to build the phone the way he or she want it. Why else do you think hacking the iPhone is so popular among iPhone holders?

The real reason why Samsung has climb so high is pretty obvious, despite a slightly less quality screen their devices can cope with practically everything an iPhone can, only cheaper. So no wonder that they sell lot's of smartphones.

I also think this is good, competition is good. But for now I prefer the iPhone above anything else, simply because I'm working with Apple's for decades and I love the simplicity of the whole Apple line....

But I'm no fanboy. Talking about kids stuff, when does Apple come up with an Apple Mac Pro? About time to come with some serious machine, not one that's thin, with a good looking design but one that can do serious work. My Mac Pro is quite old by now and I don't like iMac,s they are way to slow for the work I do.
Fanboy talk??? Where? I think you are confused.

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Originally Posted by NumberNine View Post
Oh yeah, the iPhone is so advanced. I reckon everyone with one is doing "big things" on it.

Give me a break.
At least it works, doesn't freeze like my Android POS phone.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 02:37 PM   #123
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So much for my brand new iMac

I think its more of a case that those with a desktop are also getting smart phones, tablets and maybe laptops to work and play.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 02:52 PM   #124
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That's fanboy talk with all do respect. I love Apple products but I'm also realistic. The smartphones made by Samsung can do practically the same things as an iPhone can do these days. In fact the Samsung devices can do much more when looking at the user possibilities to build the phone the way he or she want it. Why else do you think hacking the iPhone is so popular among iPhone holders?
It's also one reason why the Android platform in particular is so fragmented. No standardization on a non-hardware upgradeable platform is a big mistake.

One other thing about this survey is that desktops are still shared sometimes, if I'm not mistaken.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 03:11 PM   #125
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Shifting market, migrating market, sure.

Post PC? I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon.

One thing these analysts should keep in mind is that there were a lot of people out there that did not need the power of a PC but didn't have many options. Now they have options and have moved to them.
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