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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:04 AM   #1
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Supply Chain Indicators Point to Poor February for Apple




Citigroup's recent claim that Apple would miss its own Q1/Q2 revenue forecasts has been lent weight by Topeka Capital's Apple Monitor reporting that key Apple suppliers had a "terrible" February (via Business Insider).

The monitor, which tracks the results of Apple's key suppliers, is compiled by Topeka Capital's Brian White, an analyst normally bullish on Apple.
Quote:
When [supplier] results are good, it usually means good things for Apple. When the results are bad, watch out.

White says the February results for his Apple Monitor were down 31 percent sequentially, which compares to the typical 8 percent decline. Even if you factor in the Chinese New Year, he still says it's bad.
The Chinese New Year tends to result in significantly reduced production, but White calculates that factoring that in still results on a fall in production of 15%, amounting to "the worst February we have on record." White goes on to observe that most of the preliminary Taiwan monitors show weak results, suggesting that the slowdown is affecting the whole industry, though Apple's supply chain figures appear worse than most.

Last month, research firm NPD revealed surprisingly strong Mac and iPod sales in the U.S. for the month of January, but with those product families accounting for smaller and smaller proportions of Apple's revenue, iPhone and iPad sales have become the primary drivers of Apple's performance.

Apple CEO Tim Cook has cautioned against reading too much into supply chain reports, noting that the company has multiple sources for many components and that yield rates may vary over time, but Topeka's Apple Monitor attempts to take some of those fluctuations into account by taking a broader view spanning a number of companies within Apple's supply chain.

Article Link: Supply Chain Indicators Point to Poor February for Apple
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:06 AM   #2
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:08 AM   #3
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Wall Street has decided they're done with Apple and are now doing whatever they can to tear it all the way down to the ground. Good reason to just stop listening to them unless you own the stock, which I don't.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:10 AM   #4
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I'll do my part

If and when Apple offers-up a respectable, contemporary version of the Mac PRO, I'll make my contributions to their bottom line.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:12 AM   #5
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The Guardian newspaper (UK) had a great article this weekend explaining why Apple are in decline. There stock is down 40% in 6 months and they are not doing anything new or innovative that has the wow factor in recent years. They are not disappearing anytime soon but they are losing brand loyalty as people do want quality but also something new. If you have stock I would be tempted to ditch it! Buy it again when its at its lowest as im sure Apple will bounce back in years to come.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:13 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by gombach View Post
If and when Apple offers-up a respectable, contemporary version of the Mac PRO, I'll make my contributions to their bottom line.
Was thinking the same about both the Pro and the iPhone.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:13 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by cambox View Post
The Guardian newspaper (UK) had a great article this weekend explaining why Apple are in decline. There stock is down 40% in 6 months and they are not doing anything new or innovative that has the wow factor in recent years. They are not disappearing anytime soon but they are losing brand loyalty as people do want quality but also something new. If you have stock I would be tempted to ditch it! Buy it again when its at its lowest as im sure Apple will bounce back in years to come.
Define "recent years" please.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:13 AM   #8
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Forecasts are a joke. Keep calm and carry on.



Waiting for my black retina air with no bezel!
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:14 AM   #9
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poor apple

let's create a Save Apple charity
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:14 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Peace View Post
Define "recent years" please.
"years" that happened "recently"
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:16 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Peace View Post
Define "recent years" please.
When was the ipad launched? What have they done new and wow since I think they said. They update and make things lighter, shinier or more effective on product lines that have now been around some years. Apart for the Ipad whats new in the last few years?

Oh and dont shoot the messenger ok!
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:16 AM   #12
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Well, we will se in late April
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:17 AM   #13
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poor apple
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:17 AM   #14
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goodbye apple, hello samsung. this is what happens when you sit on your ass and let competitors catch up to you.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:18 AM   #15
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For the past two or three years, Android has been moving rapidly and iOS has been standing still.

iOS had been sheltered by two things:
1 - They started way ahead of Android.
2 - Android devices tend to be updated more slowly (IE, Android devices tend to be running years old OS versions whereas iOS devices tend to be running OS versions within a few days of release.)

It was inevitable though, Android has blown right past iOS. Apple has the ability to move forward very quickly - if iOS 7 blows away Android 4, then Apple will be in the lead for awhile because all iOS devices will jump to iOS 7 instantly whereas even if Android 5 is much better, most devices wouldn't be running it for months, so iOS 7 need only beat Android 4 - if iOS 7 blows away Android 4, Apple can handily retake the lead and their stock will reverse course.

Doesn't Apple normally demonstrate the next OS X or iOS version to developers in Spring? We're half way through March and I still haven't seen any invitation...
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:18 AM   #16
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Sell AAPL fast.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:18 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cambox View Post
When was the ipad launched? What have they done new and wow since I think they said. They update and make things lighter, shinier or more effective on product lines that have now been around some years. Apart for the Ipad whats new in the last few years?

Oh and dont shoot the messenger ok!
iPod 2.001
iPhone 2.007
iPad 2.010

People have short memories regarding timeframes.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:19 AM   #18
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Just waiting for the iTV and the iWatch... Waiting for something new.

Impress me, Apple.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:19 AM   #19
Peace
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cambox View Post
When was the ipad launched? What have they done new and wow since I think they said. They update and make things lighter, shinier or more effective on product lines that have now been around some years. Apart for the Ipad whats new in the last few years?

Oh and dont shoot the messenger ok!
The last few years ? The iPad came out 2010. I wouldn't call that "recent years"

What have they done in 3 years ? You be the judge between the iPad 1 in 2010 and the iPad Mini in 2012.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:19 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cambox View Post
When was the ipad launched? What have they done new and wow since I think they said. They update and make things lighter, shinier or more effective on product lines that have now been around some years. Apart for the Ipad whats new in the last few years?

Oh and dont shoot the messenger ok!
iTunes ping, but that was such a big failure, that no one remembers it.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:20 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by cambox View Post
If you have stock I would be tempted to ditch it! Buy it again when its at its lowest
wow, mind if i write this down?
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:20 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Ceviche Lover View Post
goodbye apple, hello samsung. this is what happens when you sit on your ass and let competitors catch up to you.
I know, right? Apple should get it together, I hear that the GSIII was "designed for humans" which is much more innovative than the previous version which was apparently designed for cats.

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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:20 AM   #23
cambox
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oletros View Post
iPod 2.001
iPhone 2.007
iPad 2.010

People have short memories regarding timeframes.
Yes 3 plus years ago was the ipad. Nothing new in recent years was the quote, so why are you arguing?
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:20 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cambox View Post
The Guardian newspaper (UK) had a great article this weekend explaining why Apple are in decline. There stock is down 40% in 6 months and they are not doing anything new or innovative that has the wow factor in recent years. They are not disappearing anytime soon but they are losing brand loyalty as people do want quality but also something new. If you have stock I would be tempted to ditch it! Buy it again when its at its lowest as im sure Apple will bounce back in years to come.
What is all this new and innovative stuff others are doing? And it hasn't been even 2 years since Steve died. What exactly do these people think Apple should have done the last 1.5 years? I suppose they could have released a 5" phone to wow the tech press and Wall Street but not sure what exactly is innovative about a larger screen. One could argue Microsoft was "innovative" with Windows 8 but the customer response seems to be quite muted. So why would Apple add touch screen to the macs when it's not taking off in the PC market? Again, I'd love to know exactly what innovation the Guardian thinks Apple should be doing that its not right now. Or are they just parroting the broader theme in the media echo chamber these days.
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Old Mar 11, 2013, 10:22 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by spiderman0616 View Post
Wall Street has decided they're done with Apple and are now doing whatever they can to tear it all the way down to the ground. Good reason to just stop listening to them unless you own the stock, which I don't.
Agreed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cambox View Post
The Guardian newspaper (UK) had a great article this weekend explaining why Apple are in decline. There stock is down 40% in 6 months and they are not doing anything new or innovative that has the wow factor in recent years. They are not disappearing anytime soon but they are losing brand loyalty as people do want quality but also something new. If you have stock I would be tempted to ditch it! Buy it again when its at its lowest as im sure Apple will bounce back in years to come.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peace View Post
Define "recent years" please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cambox View Post
When was the ipad launched? What have they done new and wow since I think they said. They update and make things lighter, shinier or more effective on product lines that have now been around some years. Apart for the Ipad whats new in the last few years?

Oh and dont shoot the messenger ok!
I am sure by now you have seen the below posts, but just in case, see:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oletros View Post
iPod 2.001
iPhone 2.007
iPad 2.010

People have short memories regarding timeframes.
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