My Theory on Apple's release cycle

To be honest, I doubt that even Apple give it as much thought as you have.

In what way is OS X 10.8 and 10.6 "Minor software", but 10.7 "Major"?
Advice on the basis of patterns seems to be that the even numbered released are better than the odd ones.

2012 is expected to be the year that the new MacPro is released. So pretty major, I'd say.

Apple has changed its release cycle for OS X, which will now be annual for major versions. This was announced when Lion came out, I think.

Sadly, from comment made by Apple Engineers in the Apple BugReporter, this now means that many bugs introduced in a major release won't get fixed within the life of the same version -- you will have to purchase an upgrade to get the bug fix.
While this previously happened a bit, we can expect to see more of this, given the shorter release cycles.

alexcanton said:

2013
- Minor Hardware: iPhone 5S, iPad (5th Generation)
- Major Software: iOS 7, OS X 10.9

2014
- Major Hardware: The next iPhone, iPad 6, Apple TV
- Minor Software: iOS 8, OS X 11

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It isn't true that after a 10.9 software there have to be an 11.0 update...
There can be 10.10, 10.11, 10.12, etc.

As you might have noticed, they just call it 'OS X Mountain Lion' now, so the 10.x is A) redundant as X=10, and B) deprecated.

It would be OS XI – and that's not going to happen, unless you have some breakthrough ideas that are better than an open-source UNIX with a proprietary desktop environment. 25 years ago, SJ hadn't when NeXT developed it. 25 years later, no one else has, either. Except for the Cloud, but that's another matter.

alexcanton said:

Let me know your thoughts. Do you agree/disagree with my theory?

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I think (hope) Apple would probably adjust their hardware/software release schedule depending on market conditions, competition, sales figures, product readiness etc. rather than this pattern alone.

Plus, after OS X 10.9 would come 10.10. Unless the update is so major to warrant OS X 11.0.

alexcanton said:

It's interesting, 2013 seems to be Apple's year for software.

For example:


2009
- Major Hardware: iPhone 3GS
- Major Software: OS X Leopard, iOS 3

2010
- Major Hardware: iPad, iPhone 4, iPod touch with FaceTime, Multi-Touch iPod Nano
- Minor Software: OS X Snow Leopard

2011
- Minor Hardware: iPhone 4S, iPad 2
- Major Software: OS X Lion, iOS 5, iCloud

2012
- Major Hardware: iPhone 5, iPad Mini, Macbook Pro with Retina, Redesigned iMac
- Minor Software: iOS 6, OS X Mountain Lion

2013
- Minor Hardware: iPhone 5S, iPad (5th Generation)
- Major Software: iOS 7, OS X 10.9

2014
- Major Hardware: The next iPhone, iPad 6, Apple TV
- Minor Software: iOS 8, OS X 11


The thing that interests me is OS X 11 is bound to be big. But they have to have a significant update in OS X 10.9 because Mountain Lion was only minor.

Let me know your thoughts. Do you agree/disagree with my theory?

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Your cycle is off. Leopard was released in 2007. Snow Leopard was in 2009.

alexcanton said:

I highly doubt it will be 10.10, that doesn't make sense.

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In terms of decimals 10.10 doesn't make sense, but in terms of software version numbering it does. When ever OS X 11 (OS XI?) comes out it will probably be a major change and from the looks of things I doubt Apple has been putting enough time into that for a release next year.

Major and minor is a subjective term and should be dismissed.

What about iWatch? That's gotta be by 2014. Also, I feel a breakthrough in the tablet/desktop OS has to happen soon. Microsoft has given it a shot with Win8 and it seems it's mixed on the reception. Perhaps Apple can do it right?

If OS 11 is coming, I feel it will be the OS that bridges iOS and Mac OS. We all have seen the similarities already occurring so it's only a matter of time before a true hybrid OS appears.

Hardware will come and go based on what supplies create, but at the moment the mobile hardware is where most big changes are likely to occur.

alexcanton said:

There is so much wrong with that post:

• Major and Minor are obviously used. Look at Leopard, Snow Leopard. Lion, Mountain Lion.
• iWatch is absolute speculation, nothing solid at all.
• Windows 8 was such a flop people are going back to Windows 7. Apple has learnt from that, that a hybrid OS will not be happening for a long time. Hence why Apple hasn't made touch screen iMacs/Macbooks. They researched it, it doesn't work.

Click to expand...

Ha, minor and major is all based on whoever is using the terms. Snow Leopard was way better than Leopard was, so not sure how you could call that minor. Same with Lion and ML (actually on this one I really notice virtually no difference).
See? My definition of major and minor is different than yours. Subjective. Though I agree that the rMBP and new iMac were major-ish.

The iWatch is speculative but when the WSJ posts about it it is at least being explored. It should be lumped in as a major release in the "speculative" list you compiled.

Apple has learned from Win8? This doesn't even make sense. Apple is absolutely moving towards a hybrid OS, but they are taking their time on it as opposed to MS jumping the gun trying to get ahead in the game (they haven't).