Best Article on Apple Ever! Sums Up The Situation...

[gijoeinla]

How Apple invites facile analysis

March 22, 2013, 8:12 p.m.

Los Angeles Times

By Michael Hiltzik

For those of us not directly invested in Apple, the stock's trajectory over the last six months has been a thrill ride to rival anything you'll find at Magic Mountain.

Since hitting an all-time peak of $705 in mid-September, the shares have been on a long slide, reaching $419 before recovering a bit to the $450 range last week. At the peak, learned Wall Street analysts were speculating about how high Apple could go and whether the sky really was the limit; at the current trough, they're all but proclaiming the end of the Apple era.

[braddick]

The book of Genesis summarized in two sentences:

God created everything from scratch.
God got angry and killed almost everything.

This thread:
Apple good. iPhone pretty good.
Technology? Who knows?

[wasimyaqoob]

Markets go up.

Markets go down.

That's the aim of the game.

[IJBrekke]

Great summary.

I'll add this: Apple has had 3 mobile products that have either created or revolutionized the market: iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Initial releases of these devices were wonders to us, the consumers, because we didn't yet know what they would become. As we use these products we quickly adjust to their strengths and simultaneously develop expectations for replacement models that come out.

Apple's releases lately have simply met consumer expectations, not exceeded them. This is somewhat expected because they are evolutionary products, not revolutionary. But they risk falling into the trap of Honda and Toyota: holding onto large market shares because of excellent reliability, but becoming incredibly boring and safe, refusing to take chances. In my opinion, the iPhone 5 was a very safe release.

Apple's biggest home runs have been the revolutions, and in the last 12 years they have had 3. Our perception of the company (and our expectations) are shaped by these products, not the evolutionary products that come out after. We expect releases of these revolutions to continue, and since 2010 they have not. To which I say to Apple: "What else you got?"

[Jimmy James]

Originally Posted by IJBrekke

Great summary.

I'll add this: Apple has had 3 mobile products that have either created or revolutionized the market: iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Initial releases of these devices were wonders to us, the consumers, because we didn't yet know what they would become. As we use these products we quickly adjust to their strengths and simultaneously develop expectations for replacement models that come out.

Apple's releases lately have simply met consumer expectations, not exceeded them. This is somewhat expected because they are evolutionary products, not revolutionary. But they risk falling into the trap of Honda and Toyota: holding onto large market shares because of excellent reliability, but becoming incredibly boring and safe, refusing to take chances. In my opinion, the iPhone 5 was a very safe release.

Apple's biggest home runs have been the revolutions, and in the last 12 years they have had 3. Our perception of the company (and our expectations) are shaped by these products, not the evolutionary products that come out after. We expect releases of these revolutions to continue, and since 2010 they have not. To which I say to Apple: "What else you got?"

The iPhone 5 was safe? Sure.

But let's not forget that the hardware was completely new. And what else where you expecting. A cube?

[dvoros]

Within the past two weeks there have been numerous articles written about Apple and the next iPhone release. NEVER have I read so many stories using these adjectives to describe the situation: complacent, tired, boring, lacking innovation, lacking the WOW factor, etc... In all the times that Steve Jobs was alive, these adjectives were never used. Why now? Because their true descriptions of Apple's arrogance to the world outside its campus. HTC and Samsung will kill them after Apple releases its ridiculous iPhone 5s with nothing new attached to it except the "s" at the end. This is soooo sad.

[MuddyPaws1]

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

But let's not forget that the hardware was completely new.

The hardware was completely new? Maybe new for Apple. We could debate this all day and has been done in many many threads. The outside is aluminum and scratches easy....revolutionary. The screen is a little taller....revolutionary. The processor is a little faster....revolutionary. The camera is a little better....revolutionary. Each of those, with the exception of the outside case, were already on the market on different platforms.

Yes it was an attempt at a safe release. IMHO missed the mark. Seems they tried to keep the people that wanted to stay with a small screen and give a larger screen to people that wanted that. Many small screen lovers didn't bite and stayed with their 4S (my wife) and many of the ones that wanted a bigger screen felt let down and jumped to a different phone. I am one of the larger screen ones that jumped. You can see it missed the mark in the younger generation just by looking at the phones they are carrying.

I think the evolutionary vs revolutionary statement is quite valid.

[John T]

Wow! Seems that on the day of publication, the LA Times was short of copy!

[Jimmy James]

Originally Posted by MuddyPaws1

The hardware was completely new? Maybe new for Apple. We could debate this all day and has been done in many many threads. The outside is aluminum and scratches easy....revolutionary. The screen is a little taller....revolutionary. The processor is a little faster....revolutionary. The camera is a little better....revolutionary. Each of those, with the exception of the outside case, were already on the market on different platforms.

Yes, new. New shell (including new manufacturing process), new chipset designed in-house by Apple. The stuff you see and the stuff that really matters. Somehow meaningful changes are entirely lost on so many posters here. Again, what where you expecting? A cube? A triangle-shaped device? I don't see how they could make it that much different. In fact, that would be a bad thing IMO. I'm a Porsche enthusiast and I have always appreciated a form following function type of design, and designs that have a strong continuity between iterations.

Apple also has the edge on other manufacturers as (I think) the only one offering a top-tier phone with a smaller screen/package. Who else is doing this? Since I'm not interested in a huge screen I find this particularly compelling. If I could find a top-level 3.5-4" Android I might become more interested.

In a recent post you said:
I'll go back to iPhone if the screen gets bigger. I won't if it doesn't.
So your complaint really boils down to screen size. How revolutionary.

Apple has carved out their niche and for now, no one is matching them.

[adnbek]

Originally Posted by MuddyPaws1

The hardware was completely new? Maybe new for Apple. We could debate this all day and has been done in many many threads. The outside is aluminum and scratches easy....revolutionary. The screen is a little taller....revolutionary. The processor is a little faster....revolutionary. The camera is a little better....revolutionary. Each of those, with the exception of the outside case, were already on the market on different platforms.

Yes it was an attempt at a safe release. IMHO missed the mark. Seems they tried to keep the people that wanted to stay with a small screen and give a larger screen to people that wanted that. Many small screen lovers didn't bite and stayed with their 4S (my wife) and many of the ones that wanted a bigger screen felt let down and jumped to a different phone. I am one of the larger screen ones that jumped. You can see it missed the mark in the younger generation just by looking at the phones they are carrying.

I think the evolutionary vs revolutionary statement is quite valid.

So to sum it up, your only definition of "new" is screen size? Gotcha.

[MuddyPaws1]

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

Yes, new. New shell (including new manufacturing process), new chipset designed in-house by Apple. The stuff you see and the stuff that really matters. Somehow meaningful changes are entirely lost on so many posters here. Again, what where you expecting? A cube? A triangle-shaped device? I don't see how they could make it that much different.

A new manufacturing process is meaningful? To whom? Us geeks, that's about it. My wife could give a rats ass about the process. She wants it to do stuff.

A new shell and the fact they made their own chip is not revolutionary. The shell doesn't even factor into user experience much. If it does, then you are looking for a status symbol. Most put a case on it anyway. So your sweet aluminum housing is plastic now.

Who cares that Apple made their own chip? Us geeks. How does that change how the end user uses the device? It doesn't. I would bet if you took a poll of iPhone users, the vast majority wouldn't have a clue about the chip or who makes the display. The process and the chip were not done for the end users. They were done to benefit Apple.

I am not looking for any different shape. Why would you be stuck on the shape? Who would want a triangle or a cube? That's just silly

----------

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

In a recent post you said:
I'll go back to iPhone if the screen gets bigger. I won't if it doesn't.
So your complaint really boils down to screen size. How revolutionary.

Yes I did. And I stand by that. I like the larger screen. What I am finding is that I am also liking android more and more each month that goes by. I miss a few things that the iPhone does within the Apple world, but I also hear "How can I do that with my phone?" from my wife quite often and my response to her most times is..."You can't." Makes her not happy.

Revolutionary from the end user standpoint is making a device do something that the user had no idea was even possible. Not making changes to the way you make something so your profit margins can get even higher.

----------

Originally Posted by adnbek

So to sum it up, your only definition of "new" is screen size? Gotcha.

Actually no. New screen size......to apple. Not the world.

[itsmemuffins]

Any old stoopid know that the hedge funds decided to cash in...

[gijoeinla]

Originally Posted by MuddyPaws1

A new manufacturing process is meaningful? To whom? Us geeks, that's about it. My wife could give a rats ass about the process. She wants it to do stuff.

A new shell and the fact they made their own chip is not revolutionary. The shell doesn't even factor into user experience much. If it does, then you are looking for a status symbol. Most put a case on it anyway. So your sweet aluminum housing is plastic now.

Who cares that Apple made their own chip? Us geeks. How does that change how the end user uses the device? It doesn't. I would bet if you took a poll of iPhone users, the vast majority wouldn't have a clue about the chip or who makes the display. The process and the chip were not done for the end users. They were done to benefit Apple.

I am not looking for any different shape. Why would you be stuck on the shape? Who would want a triangle or a cube? That's just silly

----------



Yes I did. And I stand by that. I like the larger screen. What I am finding is that I am also liking android more and more each month that goes by. I miss a few things that the iPhone does within the Apple world, but I also hear "How can I do that with my phone?" from my wife quite often and my response to her most times is..."You can't." Makes her not happy.

Revolutionary from the end user standpoint is making a device do something that the user had no idea was even possible. Not making changes to the way you make something so your profit margins can get even higher.

----------



Actually no. New screen size......to apple. Not the world.

So your saying Apple *should* build a new iPhone that has a larger screen and that will satisfy the *revolutionary* aspects of it? Or you mean the software? Or Both? Even Same-sung admitted that *changing* the form factor on every incarnation would eventually end as no one and their mother will ever make a dime *re-imagining* the form factor... God Apple has been so stupid to the point of still raking in the biggest profits yet underselling Same-sung at the same time. Idiots!

My thoughts (god forgive me) are lining up with Same-sung. Software is where it's at. The profit is so there. But be prepared to start paying for software to run on your phones in the not too distant future...Think I'm wrong? The app paradigm is shifting to "freeware" models and OS's wont be far behind. Site FCPX and it's a la carte of Motion, Compressor etc. Adobe now "renting" it's suites to you monthly...Microsoft office wont even let you *own* a copy....

If, if Apple does a bigger form factor for a phone, it will be sheerly a competitive move and my bet not "revolutionary". But, me, Im fine with that. I understand their game plan. Admit that everyone and their mother *thought* the iPad mini would fail, yet it appears Apple was spot on it's move, a move they *calculated* before the market itself, including most of us here knew we wanted -- clearly another WIN for Apple but way underplayed on Wall Street. Yeah, Cook and company knew a smaller thinner form factor was the way to go... And oh, the iPhone 5 was a complete rebuild -- it shrunk it's component size, it changed its power and input adapter, it's screen, it's chip(s), and is still a beautiful piece of HARDWARE. Just touching and feeling the PLASTIC of the Galaxy line is a no go no way for me ---ewwwww...tacky.

Big growth is still left in the iPad line, you'll see. It's software could really put into a much bigger market position than it is now. I predict the imminent death of the gaming console....Doh!

----------

Originally Posted by dvoros

Within the past two weeks there have been numerous articles written about Apple and the next iPhone release. NEVER have I read so many stories using these adjectives to describe the situation: complacent, tired, boring, lacking innovation, lacking the WOW factor, etc... In all the times that Steve Jobs was alive, these adjectives were never used. Why now? Because their true descriptions of Apple's arrogance to the world outside its campus. HTC and Samsung will kill them after Apple releases its ridiculous iPhone 5s with nothing new attached to it except the "s" at the end. This is soooo sad.

Yea it's so sad that the Mini has been a smashing success despite, despite the "adjectives" saying it would fail miserably because it was soo out of date. Funny, every single person that I know who has a mini is in love with it, literally and figuratively. They are making love to them as we speak!

I mean, that device alone DEBUNKS the "theory" they are so behind the times etc etc etc etc etc etc and etc. Their iPad mini plan shamed all of us including myself into the realm of FUD.

[IJBrekke]

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

The iPhone 5 was safe? Sure.

But let's not forget that the hardware was completely new. And what else where you expecting. A cube?

To clarify, I'm speaking more of new concepts and designs vs. hardware revisions. I think they've had 3 "revolutionary" products because they fundamentally changed the market. The 5, functioning as an upgrade of an existing design, falls under the "evolutionary" label.

I'm not knocking the 5, by the way, just adding my thoughts to the original article.

[adnbek]

Originally Posted by gijoeinla

The main focus of the latest crop of facile but questionable Apple analyses is on the rise of Samsung, which last year shipped 216 million smartphones, including its high-end Galaxy models, compared with Apple's sales of only 136 million Apple iPhones. (The figures are from IDC Worldwide.)

These numbers are comparing *all* samsung phones to iPhone. The Galaxy S (S, SII and SIII) line are the only ones to pay attention to since the rest (minus the Note) are cheap/underpowered phones that are often given away for free and represent just a fraction of revenue.

For Galaxy S/iPhone numbers, this would be more accurate:

http://www.androidauthority.com/ipho...istory-173560/

What this tells me is that while Samsung is catching up and is definitely a threat, iPhone sales still dominate.

[MuddyPaws1]

Originally Posted by gijoeinla

So your saying Apple *should* build a new iPhone that has a larger screen and that will satisfy the *revolutionary* aspects of it?

I never said that at all. I said a larger screen would satisfy my desire for a larger screen in a iPhone. A larger screen isn't revolutionary. There are lots of phones with bigger screens than the iPhone.

I don't know what the next revolutionary thing is. If I did, I would be making a lot of money. That's Apple's job. That's what they have done in the past. It's what I want them to continue doing.

[ritmomundo]

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

The iPhone 5 was safe? Sure.

But let's not forget that the hardware was completely new. And what else where you expecting. A cube?

I don't really think Apple has ever invented anything revolutionary or new (technologically speaking). All of their big products are improvements of things previously available. The iPhone was a better Palm Treo. The iPod was a "better" Rio/Creative/Dell DJ/etc which came out years before the iPod ("better" = subjective). The iPad was a better touchscreen tablet/computer, which was created several years before the iPad ever came out.

[gijoeinla]

Originally Posted by ritmomundo

I don't really think Apple has ever invented anything revolutionary or new (technologically speaking). All of their big products are improvements of things previously available. The iPhone was a better Palm Treo. The iPod was a "better" Rio/Creative/Dell DJ/etc which came out years before the iPod ("better" = subjective). The iPad was a better touchscreen tablet/computer, which was created several years before the iPad ever came out.

Yes and no. Apple has proprietary patents. You can't act like they haven't invented parts, pieces, software, etc that is unique. People magnate to the brand because of overall experience.. I'm quite sure that Tim Cook and crew have a better handle on where the ship is sailing next than any of us think.. Losing Steve Jobs 1 1/2 years ago hit them all hard and no doubt it's taken even missteps for them to unify and move it forward. They clearly proved EVERYONE wrong with the introduction of the iPad mini -- which according to all concerned was destined to fail miserably - yet the team had vision a year or so earlier to make that move and it paid off...so does revolution really matter to the marketplace as a hole or just to core heads like us..

[McGiord]

I really don't see any summary in that.
It doesn't say anything about what is going to happen with Apple and the market they cater.

[Jimmy James]

Originally Posted by ritmomundo

I don't really think Apple has ever invented anything revolutionary or new (technologically speaking). All of their big products are improvements of things previously available. The iPhone was a better Palm Treo. The iPod was a "better" Rio/Creative/Dell DJ/etc which came out years before the iPod ("better" = subjective). The iPad was a better touchscreen tablet/computer, which was created several years before the iPad ever came out.

And none of my favourite car brands invented the car. Or even the wheel. It's irrelevant to me.

Did you own any PDA type if devices before Apple came along? Dell Axim, Palm TX, Windows phone. They were all terrible. Hardly anyone was interested. What Apple did create was a mass market for something that only had fringe appeal before.

[ritmomundo]

Originally Posted by Jimmy James

And none of my favourite car brands invented the car. Or even the wheel. It's irrelevant to me.

Did you own any PDA type if devices before Apple came along? Dell Axim, Palm TX, Windows phone. They were all terrible. Hardly anyone was interested. What Apple did create was a mass market for something that only had fringe appeal before.

Well, Benz, Daimler and Maybach invented the car, so Mercedes Benz/Daimler/Maybach must not be on your list of favorite car brands. No one ever said Honda/Ford/whatever revolutionalized the car industry. So your point is irrelevant.

Yeah, I owned several PDAs, as well as a Treo, another WindowsOS phone, and a blackberry. If anything, Apple just made the smartphone sleeker looking and "cooler" since it could do the same things but didnt require a physical keyboard.

Did you ever use the PalmOS operating system? It's eerily similar to the early iOS.