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Old Apr 19, 2013, 10:25 AM   #1
PracticalMac
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Predictions for 2014 mid-term elections.

Will the balance in Congress stay the same, or change?

While the elections are still 20 months away, baring major events, I am predicting further eroding of GOP base.

Besides the budget battles, the preventions of even reasonable gun restrictions (mainly mental health and background checks) might be making even conservative people less supportive of political conservatives.

I would not be thrilled with an all Dem congress, but that still might be better then this never ending crisis in Washington.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 10:36 AM   #2
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I think it hinges at least partially on the gun control issue.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 10:47 AM   #3
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Barring something unforseen....it will stay as is. One party may pick up a seat here or there, but divided government is not going away anytime soon. The make up of the congressional districts sets us up for more of exactly what we have.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 10:55 AM   #4
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20 Months is an eternity in the political news cycle. It's way too early for me to make any prognostications.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 10:58 AM   #5
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Lots of lazy, low information voters will turn out, lots of stupid people will be elected. Lots of stupid and corrupt people will be re-elected.

That's my prediction, and it's 100% going to come true.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 11:18 AM   #6
iMikeT
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Democrats will pick up seats but Republicans will still hold a majority in the House and the Senate will stay as is. Then we'll have the stupid 60 vote requirement in the Senate as well. Both parties will continue to have members who will sell out to their corporate donors and nothing will change in our government.

In short, business as usual.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 11:34 AM   #7
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...st_predictions

It's a long way away, but it looks like the consensus is that while the republicans are likely to gain a 1-3 seats, the democrats aren't likely to lose control.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 12:37 PM   #8
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Doesn't really matter.. Obamacare will be starting and nothing is going to be changing.. Unemployment might rise and the economy will get worse..

I wouldn't vote for any fascist republican.. or for anyone who is for BIG BUSINESS before human needs.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 02:03 PM   #9
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Too far away to make accurate predictions, but I think the Dems have more seats to defend than the Republicans so probably the Republicans get another seat or two but nothing much changes in the Senate so the Dems will keep the majority. The Republicans will keep their majority in the house, it might start to erode a bit, but I think we are still two or three cycles away from the demographics changing enough to counteract the Republican gerrymandering in the house.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 03:03 PM   #10
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How about you set up a poll to go along with your question. I'm guessing you could easily come up with a whole bunch of possible outcomes.
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Old Apr 19, 2013, 03:15 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkramer View Post
Too far away to make accurate predictions, but I think the Dems have more seats to defend than the Republicans so probably the Republicans get another seat or two but nothing much changes in the Senate so the Dems will keep the majority. The Republicans will keep their majority in the house, it might start to erode a bit, but I think we are still two or three cycles away from the demographics changing enough to counteract the Republican gerrymandering in the house.
Pretty sure the Dems had more seats to defend in 2012. And I'm pretty sure they were predicted to lose control of the Senate at one time.

There's just way too much that can happen. And the news cycle is way too short to to think anything happening today will have much of an effect in 20 months.

Anyone remember what was happening 20 months ago today?
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Old Apr 21, 2013, 07:50 PM   #12
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What I don't understand is if opinion polls across the board show confidence and approval of the current congressional members to be historically low, then why do people continue to vote in the same old people?

EDIT: For the record, I am hoping the Democrats will regain control of Congress. Obama has effectively only governed for two years (when the Democrats held the House); what did they accomplish? Fair Pay Act, Wall Street reform, nuclear weapons treaty with Russia, repealed DADT, passed the Recovery Act, and started the largest shake up of health care for a very long time. Nothing is getting done under this do-nothing split Congress. And, IMO, if the Republicans take control of the Senate, then the roles will be reversed and it'll be the same old same old with Obama vetoing bills instead of Republicans voting against them. I'm hoping for a Democratic majority in the Senate and House.

Last edited by zin; Apr 21, 2013 at 07:59 PM.
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Old Apr 21, 2013, 07:54 PM   #13
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What I don't understand is if opinion polls across the board show confidence and approval of the current congressional members to be historically low, then why do people continue to vote in the same old people?
Because most people tend to like their representative and think that all the other ones are the problem combined with a lot of districts being drawn so that they aren't competitive at all results in everyone hating congress but never voting them out.
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Old Apr 21, 2013, 08:05 PM   #14
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What I don't understand is if opinion polls across the board show confidence and approval of the current congressional members to be historically low, then why do people continue to vote in the same old people?
In relation to this, I wonder if there's any statistics to show how many people just vote "All Democrat" or "All Republican" having any sort of influence.

Doing that is just as much of a waste of a vote as not voting.
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Old Apr 21, 2013, 10:50 PM   #15
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I predict pain.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 08:41 AM   #16
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In relation to this, I wonder if there's any statistics to show how many people just vote "All Democrat" or "All Republican" having any sort of influence.

Doing that is just as much of a waste of a vote as not voting.
How do you figure?

All individual voters have virtually no influence when voting (at least in elections statewide and up). Influence only gets significant when you affect the behavior of others and how they vote.
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Old Apr 25, 2013, 12:25 PM   #17
LIVEFRMNYC
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Those who voted for Obama should have learned their lesson from lack of participation last midterm, but I still can't put to much hope into this midterm.
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Old Apr 25, 2013, 05:27 PM   #18
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I learned the truth from Lenny Bruce
That all your wealth can't buy you health
So I smoke a pint of tea a day

Paul Simon
The lesson of 2010 is not entirely clear. Starting when Barack took office, a bunch of loud people rolled some tea into a joint and blew the smoke in everyone's faces. This time around, there is no pot a-steeping, there is no grand and glorious movement afoot, gaining momentum, and the economic collapse is still a few years off (bankers are still up to their old tricks). There will be optimism, and not much will change.
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Old Apr 25, 2013, 05:29 PM   #19
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I learned the truth from Lenny Bruce
That all your wealth can't buy you health
So I smoke a pint of tea a day

Paul Simon
The lesson of 2010 is not entirely clear. Starting when Barack took office, a bunch of loud people rolled some tea into a joint and blew the smoke in everyone's faces. This time around, there is no pot a-steeping, there is no grand and glorious movement afoot, gaining momentum, and the economic collapse is still a few years off (bankers are still up to their old tricks). There will be optimism, and not much will change.
HUH!?
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Old Apr 25, 2013, 05:58 PM   #20
Sydde
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HUH!?
Holy Jungian nightmare! I have confused Shrink!
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Old Apr 25, 2013, 06:01 PM   #21
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Holy Jungian nightmare! I have confused Shrink!
I hate to rain on your parade...but confusing me at this point in my life is not a difficult task.

I get confused turning on a light..

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Old Apr 25, 2013, 08:41 PM   #22
Sydde
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I get confused turning on a light..
A light??? Lights are bad! Close the curtains, the sun is coming up!
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