Register FAQ / Rules Forum Spy Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
Go Back   MacRumors Forums > News and Article Discussion > MacRumors.com News Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:05 PM   #1
MacRumors
macrumors bot
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2013 Earnings Call




Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 26 "independent" and 41 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

This is one of the most important earnings calls of Apple CEO Tim Cook's tenure as CEO. Apple's stock price is down significantly from its highs of last year, and investors are concerned about Apple's growth prospects across both existing and new product lines.

Typically, the amateur analysts expect significantly higher revenue and earnings than the professionals, but Elmer-Dewitt notes the gap is less than usual this time. The independent consensus has Apple just beating its guidance, while the pro's are expecting Apple to hit near the middle of its range.
Quote:
The pros, as usual, are more cautious than the independents -- but not that much. The gap between the two group's average estimates (summarized above) as as close as I've ever seen them, with the amateurs calling for revenues only 1.3% higher than professionals.
In the first quarter, the company earned $13.1 billion in profit on revenue of $54.5 billion.

Last quarter Apple changed how it provides guidance, choosing to offer a range of guidance for what the company believes it can achieve, rather than a point prediction. Apple provided guidance for the second quarter for revenue of between $41 and $43 billion and gross margin between 37.5% and 38.5%.

Apple will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2013 (first calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2013 Earnings Call
MacRumors is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:06 PM   #2
impulse462
macrumors 65816
 
impulse462's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: SF Bay Area
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
__________________
13.3" MacBook Air, 1.3GHz Core i5, 4GB RAM, 128GB SSD; 16GB Gold iPhone 5s
impulse462 is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:09 PM   #3
Klae17
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Time to..... Stock up! YEAAAAA!
Klae17 is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:09 PM   #4
NutsNGum
macrumors 68030
 
NutsNGum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Glasgow, Scotland
26 independent analysts:

NutsNGum is offline   24 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:10 PM   #5
skywalkerr69
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: New York City
I bought puts, lets hope for a sell off!
__________________
Stockholder since 1998
skywalkerr69 is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:11 PM   #6
Chupa Chupa
macrumors G3
 
Chupa Chupa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Quote:
Originally Posted by impulse462 View Post
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
__________________
Walled Garden ≠ Prison:
"People who use Apple products considered their options, and chose Apple. If they regret their decision, they can dump it at any time." -- Harry McCracken, Technologizer.com
Chupa Chupa is offline   9 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:12 PM   #7
Kaibelf
macrumors 6502a
 
Kaibelf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Chicago, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by impulse462 View Post
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
Agreed. I know of no other business that is called "doomed" because they "only" pull in margins above 35% every time, when others pull in something like 5% and are treated like the Second Coming.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chupa Chupa View Post
You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
Wrong. They want their money to double RIGHT NOW instead of exercising the patience that a sensible person would. That's why Warren Buffet plays the long game and reaps amazing success, and these other airchair experts are little more than get-rich-quick-demanding fools.
Kaibelf is offline   6 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:15 PM   #8
pgiguere1
macrumors 68000
 
pgiguere1's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Montreal, Canada
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chupa Chupa View Post
You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
Last quarters, the stock didn't drop because revenues didn't grow, it dropped because the growth of revenues didn't grow. They expect Apple's revenues to grow exponentially since that's what we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Even if Apple has, by a large margin, the highest profit share in 3 of the most profitable industries on earth (computers, smartphones and tablets), they're expected to continue growing very fast by introducing new super-profitable categories and again, grabbing most of their profits while said categories grow exponentially. All that without losing profit share in past categories while they also continue to grow. Easy task eh?

Meanwhile, companies like Amazon see their stock going up while they report no profit at all.

Last edited by pgiguere1; Apr 23, 2013 at 01:27 PM.
pgiguere1 is offline   11 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:16 PM   #9
onirocdarb
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
professional analysts
onirocdarb is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:24 PM   #10
UnfetteredMind
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
I'm sure I'm stupid and not understanding, but I thought orders were off, component suppliers were down, etc so how/why is it that analysts expectations seem to align with Apple's expectations for the quarter?
UnfetteredMind is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:27 PM   #11
BMNB1tch
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgiguere1 View Post
Meanwhile, Amazon's stock is going up while they report no profit at all.
I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone
BMNB1tch is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:31 PM   #12
alfistas
Banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Helios Prime
Quote:
Originally Posted by UnfetteredMind View Post
I'm sure I'm stupid and not understanding, but I thought orders were off, component suppliers were down, etc so how/why is it that analysts expectations seem to align with Apple's expectations for the quarter?
Apple ALWAYS exceeds expectations, even when you don't expect all that much from them...
alfistas is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:38 PM   #13
spyguy10709
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: One Infinite Loop, Cupertino CA
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMNB1tch View Post
I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone
Yeah. Everyone in the world could buy everything they would need EVER, EVERYDAY And Amazin wouldn't make more than 10 billion dollars per quarter. The reason why is amazons net margin - 0.8%. They make NOTHING. it's all "SOMEDAY" we'll raise margins. It's a rediculous notion, and the stock will suffer in the next 5 years if they keep it up.
spyguy10709 is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:41 PM   #14
you people smh
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgiguere1 View Post
Last quarters, the stock didn't drop because revenues didn't grow, it dropped because the growth of revenues didn't grow. They expect Apple's revenues to grow exponentially since that's what we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Even if Apple has, by a large margin, the highest profit share in 3 of the most profitable industries on earth (computers, smartphones and tablets), they're expected to continue growing very fast by introducing new super-profitable categories and again, grabbing most of their profits while said categories grow exponentially. All that without losing profit share in past categories while they also continue to grow. Easy task eh?

Meanwhile, companies like Amazon see their stock going up while they report no profit at all.
Exactly.

Their growth slowed so they are no longer valued at $700/share (which was the accepted price for the exponential growth that you yourself admit we've grown accustomed to in recent years). Why then is it a surprise that when actual growth comes in lower than expected, that the stock would be worth less?

In any case, expect this stock to drop like it's a call on an iphone in about 3 hours.
you people smh is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:42 PM   #15
Michael Scrip
macrumors 68020
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: NC
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMNB1tch View Post

I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone
Amazon is a seller of other people's stuff. If Amazon sells a $1000 Sony TV... only a teeny tiny part of that goes to Amazon.

That's why retailers like Amazon can have billions in revenue... but only have millions in actual profit.

Of your $50 in household purchases... Amazon maybe gets 50 cents in profit (I'm guessing, obviously, but you get the point)

Apple could theoretically make more money from you buying one iPhone every 3 years than Amazon makes from your weekly purchases over the same 3 years.
Michael Scrip is online now   2 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:43 PM   #16
iMikeT
macrumors 68020
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: California
A couple more hours to go before another bloodbath. Perhaps this may be the quarter to sidestep an earnings report?
iMikeT is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:48 PM   #17
bushido
macrumors 601
 
bushido's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: España y Germany
mac os x cougar devprev afterwards?
__________________
¡No hables a menos que puedas mejorar el silencio!
bushido is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:50 PM   #18
jrswizzle
macrumors 601
 
jrswizzle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: McKinney, TX
Well, I see a "We exceeded expectations" call coming.....

promptly followed by Apple stock dropping below $300 and people crying "their doomed, their doomed!"
__________________
Nexus 5 | iPhone 5S, 5C | Lumia 520, 635 |iPad rMini, Air | Kindle Fire 7" HDX
"Innovation, my ass" -Phil Schiller
jrswizzle is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:51 PM   #19
DesertEagle
macrumors 6502a
 
DesertEagle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: /home @ 127.0.0.1
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMikeT View Post
A couple more hours to go before another bloodbath. Perhaps this may be the quarter to sidestep an earnings report?
Who will get fired this time? Not the "Chief Cartographer", I assume.
DesertEagle is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:51 PM   #20
baryon
macrumors 68030
 
baryon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
I don't understand the point of "analyst expectations", can't they just sit still, wait patiently and find out with 100% certainty very soon?
__________________
Sent from my iPod Shuffle
baryon is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:51 PM   #21
troop231
macrumors 601
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
It's been exactly 6 months since the last Apple event, something needs to happen soon!
troop231 is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:54 PM   #22
tigres
macrumors 68040
 
tigres's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Land of the Free-Waiting for Term Limits
Quote:
Originally Posted by troop231 View Post
It's been exactly 6 months since the last Apple event, something needs to happen soon!
It will today, about 5 est.
No new products though, just hang on- some incredible stuff in the pipeline (can't get into further detail.)
__________________
Quicker than two shakes of a lambs tail
tigres is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:56 PM   #23
MacsRgr8
macrumors 604
 
MacsRgr8's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Quote:
Originally Posted by onirocdarb View Post
professional analysts
Contradictio in terminis.
__________________
Steve Jobs. 1955 - 2011. My Hero.
MacsRgr8 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 01:59 PM   #24
irfaanfaki
macrumors member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by troop231 View Post
It's been exactly 6 months since the last Apple event, something needs to happen soon!
THANK YOU! Thought I'm the only one who noticed this !
irfaanfaki is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Apr 23, 2013, 02:02 PM   #25
Eadfrith
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Lindisfarena
ooooo lord..... here we go
Eadfrith is offline   0 Reply With Quote

Reply
MacRumors Forums > News and Article Discussion > MacRumors.com News Discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Similar Threads
thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2013 Earnings Call MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 45 Jul 24, 2013 01:49 AM
Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 99 Jan 24, 2013 05:12 PM
2013 iPhone 6 - expectations lamerica80 iPhone 17 Nov 23, 2012 05:47 PM
Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q4 2012 Earnings Call MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 61 Oct 25, 2012 05:51 PM
Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q3 2012 Earnings Call MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 47 Jul 24, 2012 05:20 PM

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:03 AM.

Mac Rumors | Mac | iPhone | iPhone Game Reviews | iPhone Apps

Mobile Version | Fixed | Fluid | Fluid HD
Copyright 2002-2013, MacRumors.com, LLC