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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:39 PM   #1
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iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Market Share by 2015




Apple's market share of the worldwide smartphone market may have slipped, but a new Yankee Group survey (via AllThingsD) shows some promising data points for the company.

In a survey of 16,000 U.S. smartphone users, the company found 91 percent of iPhone owners plan to purchase another iPhone when it's time to upgrade, while for Android the number is just 76 percent. And, three quarters of those looking to switch from Android plan to buy an iPhone.

Yankee Group believes the incredible customer loyalty that Apple holds will drive market share gains well into the future. The firm predicts that, if these loyalty numbers hold, Apple will surpass Android in U.S. market share by 2015.

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Think of the Apple and Android ecosystems as two buckets of water. New smartphone buyers -- mostly upgrading feature phone owners -- fall like rain into the two big buckets about equally, with a smaller number falling into Windows Phone and BlackBerry buckets. However, the Android bucket leaks badly, losing about one in five of all the owners put into it. The Apple bucket leaks only about 7 percent of its contents, so it retains more of the customers that fall into it. The Apple bucket will fill up faster and higher than the Android one, regardless of the fact that the Apple bucket may have had fewer owners in it to begin with.
The iPhone has traditionally demonstrated strong platform loyalty, and Tim Cook has played up both Apple's ecosystem of interconnected devices and apps, and the iPhone's "halo effect" as significant strengths for the company in recent earnings calls.

Article Link: iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Market Share by 2015
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:44 PM   #2
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This is Apple's strength and the reason that their platform has stability. Of course, they can't rest on their laurels. The WWDC 2013 logo looks promising, though.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:45 PM   #3
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I moved from an iPhone 5 to a Nexus 4. Really glad I did.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:45 PM   #4
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This is of course assuming that Samsung doesn't go towards their own OS.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:46 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by jonnysods View Post
I moved from an iPhone 5 to a Nexus 4. Really glad I did.
Just curious. Why?
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:49 PM   #6
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I bought a nexus 4 for kicks .. I nearly threw it out the window a few weeks later .. That aside . I do think iphone users are loyal because they tend to have sunken more into the ecosystem and have iPads and macs on the side .. Android users have more device options which makes sense
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:50 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by MacRumors View Post
Apple's market share of the worldwide smartphone market may have slipped, but a new Yankee Group survey (via AllThingsD) shows some promising data points for the company.
I don't understand what relation has a worldwide marketshare data with an USA survey
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:50 PM   #8
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Tried an HTC One for 18 hours and sent it back. IOS is difficult to beat. Put IOS on the HTC and we are living large.

Last edited by jimbo1mcm; Apr 27, 2013 at 08:03 AM.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:51 PM   #9
jonnysods
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Just curious. Why?
I've been using an iPhone for around 5 years. It's great, but I'm bored. I wanted to use an OS that wasn't sandboxed, but I didn't want to use whacky flavors of android. The Nexus is a pure android experience. It's very cool, although there is loads I like about iOS.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:51 PM   #10
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Yankee Group believes the incredible customer loyalty that Apple holds will drive market share gains well into the future. The firm predicts that, if these loyalty numbers hold, Apple will surpass Android in U.S. market share by 2015.
This bucket thing is a flawed analysis. First, flaw stems from folks equally likely falling into the Android or iOS buckets in the first place. People do not select phones randomly. So their whole initially allocation of folks to buckets is deeply flawed.

Some folks are not picking iOS on purpose. If Android fails for them then Windows Phone , Blackberry , etc are far more likely options they'll take then to get an iOS phone.


The other major flaw here is long term, worldwide smartphone growth is going to come from lower price points. Again iOS is likely not the leading platform based on price over the long term.


Best case this high degree of loyal will mean that Apple's share won't drop much. But repeat buyers are not going to high drivers of growth in a growing market. Any model suggesting they will be skewed to myopically not to look at the new arrivals to the market. (just like this one is.)

Last edited by deconstruct60; Apr 26, 2013 at 12:57 PM.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:52 PM   #11
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Impressive numbers


These kind of surveys/results always say little to me though. Someone saying they are thinking of buying one over the other when they get a new phone is meaningless. Intentions are one thing. Results are another.

I know plenty of people who said they were going to switch (back actually) to the iPhone but then a new Android phone came out they wanted. And I know people who had the iPhone and swore they would be switching and then didn't when the iPhone 5 came out.

The proof is in sales. Not what people are "thinking" of doing.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:52 PM   #12
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:53 PM   #13
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This reads more like wishful thinking rather than a proper analysis.

Especially if the iOS software and hardware remains stagnant. People may say they plan on switching to iPhone now - but that may change at any point, if the next-gen iPhone does not stay competitive to Android flagships.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:54 PM   #14
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Quality and ease of use mean a lot to the common user. I hope Apple remembers this as competition tries to get them to slip up.

Can't wait to see what's coming at the WWDC.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:54 PM   #15
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Customer loyalty is build on real experience with the company. When it is positive and continues to exceed exceptions, it is very very powerful. Working in IT, I have not seen any company that has better customer service than Apple.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:54 PM   #16
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Judging from the posts I read here at the Google Fan Club (née MacRumors), I think Android has a pretty rabidly loyal following as well. I don't put much credence in this, and certainly hope Apple doesn't.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:54 PM   #17
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Reminds me very much of that IDC forecast last year, in which they said Windows Phone would grow to 20% and overtake iOS. Same entirely made up nonsense.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:55 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by jonnysods View Post
I've been using an iPhone for around 5 years. It's great, but I'm bored. I wanted to use an OS that wasn't sandboxed, but I didn't want to use whacky flavors of android. The Nexus is a pure android experience. It's very cool, although there is loads I like about iOS.
Yeah same here. I may switch to WP8 depending on the outlook of WWDC. So far just the logo has got me excited. Let's hope the event is the same
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:55 PM   #19
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yup, just like windows dominance in the 90s.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:58 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Oletros View Post
I don't understand what relation has a worldwide marketshare data with an USA survey
from that survey

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The Bottom Line:

Samsung’s Radio City Music Hall launch of its Galaxy S IV smartphone made good headlines, but consumer buying data shows that at the checkout counter, Apple continues to eat Samsung’s lunch. Apple’s “black hole” ecosystem captures subscribers who never leave, while Android smartphones are losing one out of every six customers to other manufacturers. These trends will drive Apple ownership well past Android ownership by 2015 and will reinforce Apple’s dominance in tablets as well.
don't think the person writing this even realizes the S4 is just going on sale
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:58 PM   #21
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This article is fantasy for Apple fanbois.

Sorry.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 12:59 PM   #22
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I'm on the fence on what I want to upgrade to next. I like how open my S3 is and for anyone who has used the Airdroid app how cool would it be to have a similar app/feature on an iphone (sans jailbreaking). The sending sms messages via desktop browser alone is probably the biggest smart phone features I use.

That being said being a mac user the auto over the air syncing of itunes is nice as is the simplicity and stability of ios, easier one handed use with a smaller handset and better touch screen technology making for a better typing experience, for me personally anyway.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 01:01 PM   #23
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iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Marketshare by 2015
i bet it doesn't
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 01:02 PM   #24
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I really love WebOS, but I really don't see it lasting into 2017.
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Old Apr 26, 2013, 01:05 PM   #25
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Tried an HTC One or 18 hours and sent it back. IOS is difficult to beat. Put IOS on the HTC and we are living large.
I haven't actually held the HTC One, but in the pics I've seen, it looks stunning.

Your point about iOS is lost on far too many people. It's the crappy Android OS that brings down devices like the One. I'd even take a Windows phone over an Android any day. Android simply looks and feels unfinished.
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