Register FAQ / Rules Forum Spy Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
Go Back   MacRumors Forums > Mac Community > Community Discussion > Politics, Religion, Social Issues

View Poll Results: When it comes to man-made Climate Change
I believe it is real 49 65.33%
I believe it isn't real 21 28.00%
I'm still undecided 5 6.67%
Voters: 75. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old Aug 21, 2013, 02:14 AM   #1
citizenzen
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Climate Change Check-in

The draft summary of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been leaked to the press. This story in the New York Times reports ...

Quote:
The 2007 report found “unequivocal” evidence of warming, but hedged a little on responsibility, saying the chances were at least 90 percent that human activities were the cause. The language in the new draft is stronger, saying the odds are at least 95 percent that humans are the principal cause.

Regarding the question of how much the planet could warm if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere doubled, the previous report largely ruled out any number below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The new draft says the rise could be as low as 2.7 degrees, essentially restoring a scientific consensus that prevailed from 1979 to 2007.

But the draft says only that the low number is possible, not that it is likely. Many climate scientists see only a remote chance that the warming will be that low, with the published evidence suggesting that an increase above 5 degrees Fahrenheit is more likely if carbon dioxide doubles.

The new document is not final and will not become so until an intensive, closed-door negotiating session among scientists and government leaders in Stockholm in late September. But if the past is any guide, most of the core findings of the document will survive that final review.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/sc...anted=all&_r=0
I'm mostly interested in finding out who still thinks that Climate Change isn't a man-made phenomenon. Are there still disbelievers? Are there still fence-sitters? Are there recent converts? Why? Has your position changed recently? What leads you to hold on to the position you take despite reports such as the one cited?
citizenzen is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 03:47 AM   #2
GermanyChris
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Here
I don't think many have changed their minds since the last time we went through this. If 45 years of science didn't convince them threads here aren't either.

Last edited by GermanyChris; Aug 21, 2013 at 04:27 AM.
GermanyChris is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 04:20 AM   #3
iMikeT
macrumors 68020
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: California
You know, dog supposedly made the Earth and left us with all that oil to drill baby drill. It would be a sin if we didn't burn baby burn that oil and cause cataclysmic damage to our home. Yep that's it, the only solution is to keep drilling and burning to speed up the second coming of Hay-seus.
iMikeT is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 09:30 AM   #4
sviato
macrumors 68000
 
sviato's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: HR 9038 A
I don't believe that it's 100% man-made, but I do believe that humans have made a significant contribution to the causes of climate change.
sviato is online now   2 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 09:40 AM   #5
MacNut
macrumors P6
 
MacNut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: CT
95% seems high, sure we are a cause but how can we be close to the full cause? Climates are always changing, we might be pushing it along but it would change regardless.

The poll is flawed, it should be I believe it is real but not totally man made.
__________________
The thoughts in my head are rated TV-MA. Viewer discretion is advised.
Now batting, Number 2 Derek Jeter, Number 2
MacNut is offline   3 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 12:54 PM   #6
DUCKofD3ATH
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
You can't pump gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere and not expect some reaction. But it appears the models haven't done a good job at predicting what will happen, since they've been too pessimistic by far.

The most that CO2, by itself, can increase temps is 1°C, and since we've seen that amount of increase in the last century without any calamities, it's a safe bet that if CO2 were all we had to worry about, the results from doubling its concentration would fall within the bounds of natural variability.

But there are feedbacks to worry about, which is why the IPCC keeps insisting on scenarios in which a 3°C increase is the minimum we can expect. This in spite of the fact that warming has essentially stalled for fifteen years, even though enormous amounts of CO2 are being emitted.

So it seems the IPCC doesn't understand what is actually going on, and that they don't have a good grasp of the impact feedbacks will have. The results so far suggest that the effect humans are having on climate will be minimal or benign.
DUCKofD3ATH is offline   3 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 08:09 PM   #7
citizenzen
Thread Starter
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUCKofD3ATH View Post
The most that CO2, by itself, can increase temps is 1°C ...


Never heard that one before.

Source please.
citizenzen is online now   2 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 08:37 PM   #8
DUCKofD3ATH
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post


Never heard that one before.

Source please.
Quote:
CO2 climate sensitivity has a component directly due to radiative forcing by CO2, and a further contribution arising from feedbacks, positive and negative. "Without any feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 (which amounts to a forcing of 3.7 W/m2) would result in 1 °C global warming, which is easy to calculate and is undisputed."
Source: Wikipedia, but similar quotes are available in the IPCC TAR, FAR, and other reports.
DUCKofD3ATH is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 21, 2013, 11:40 PM   #9
citizenzen
Thread Starter
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUCKofD3ATH View Post
Source: Wikipedia, but similar quotes are available in the IPCC TAR, FAR, and other reports.
Ah. I see. The key being the words "without any feedback."

However, according to your quoted article ...

Quote:
The remaining uncertainty is due entirely to feedbacks in the system, namely, the water vapor feedback, the ice-albedo feedback, the cloud feedback, and the lapse rate feedback"; addition of these feedbacks leads to a value of the sensitivity to CO2 doubling of approximately 3 °C ± 1.5 °C, which corresponds to a value of λ of 0.8 K/(W/m2).
So as you say there are other feedbacks that contribute to warming.

The fact that all the feedbacks aren't understood to a precise degree shouldn't come as a surprise. Science is a process of constant refinement in all areas.

How you can then leap to ...

Quote:
The results so far suggest that the effect humans are having on climate will be minimal or benign.
Can you cite reputable studies that have come to that conclusion?
citizenzen is online now   2 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 02:19 AM   #10
AhmedFaisal
Guest
 
<snip>

Last edited by AhmedFaisal; Nov 16, 2013 at 05:35 PM.
  1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 02:40 AM   #11
juanm
macrumors 65816
 
juanm's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Send a message via MSN to juanm Send a message via Skype™ to juanm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AhmedFaisal View Post
Do I believe it's real, sure. But that's not relevant. Anybody with any common sense should have the courtesy to others and future generations to minimize the amount of pollution/waste he or she causes. Waste is an inevitable byproduct of civilization, no doubt but to cause more than necessary just to shave .5% of your cost structure or because it's convenient isn't a valid excuse.
If you're managing a large company and that .5% represents millions (and, oh, what a coincidence, your yearly bonus! what are the odds!?), it's a perfectly valid excuse (or at least a good place to start shaving operating costs, because nobody will be directly affected in the short term)
juanm is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 02:43 AM   #12
AhmedFaisal
Guest
 
<snip>

Last edited by AhmedFaisal; Nov 16, 2013 at 05:33 PM.
  3 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 06:56 AM   #13
APlotdevice
macrumors 68020
 
APlotdevice's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanyChris View Post
I don't think many have changed their minds since the last time we went through this. If 45 years of science didn't convince them threads here aren't either.
117 years actually. A scientist by the name of Samuel P Langley first observed that increasing Carbon-Dioxide levels had a warming effect on our atmosphere, and calculated that burning coal would be a major contributor to this, way back in 1896. (Although he thought the process would take much longer.)
__________________
Pebble SmartWatch - iPhone 5c - 11" Macbook Air '13 - TV - HTPC - Numerous Consoles
There is something deeply wrong with a society more offended by breasts than by entrails.

Last edited by APlotdevice; Aug 22, 2013 at 07:02 AM.
APlotdevice is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 08:48 AM   #14
DUCKofD3ATH
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Quote:
The fact that all the feedbacks aren't understood to a precise degree shouldn't come as a surprise. Science is a process of constant refinement in all areas.

How you can then leap to ...

Quote:
The results so far suggest that the effect humans are having on climate will be minimal or benign.
Because we are experiencing the results right now. What we've seen so far contradicts what scientists predicted. Based on that, we can conclude that their predictions are unreliable because they don't clearly understand feedbacks and are overestimating the Earth's climate sensitivity.

Until we can trust them (i.e., until their predictions aren't wrong), we have to go with actual experience, and said experience is that "the effect humans are having on climate will be minimal or benign".
DUCKofD3ATH is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 08:55 AM   #15
chrono1081
macrumors 604
 
chrono1081's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Isla Nublar
Fox News says its fake so it has to be fake.

Politicians with their hand in oil say its fake so its definitely fake.

Science says...oh wait science says its real....so it must be fake!

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by DUCKofD3ATH View Post
Because we are experiencing the results right now. What we've seen so far contradicts what scientists predicted. Based on that, we can conclude that their predictions are unreliable because they don't clearly understand feedbacks and are overestimating the Earth's climate sensitivity.

Until we can trust them (i.e., until their predictions aren't wrong), we have to go with actual experience, and said experience is that "the effect humans are having on climate will be minimal or benign".
You don't read many science journals do you...
__________________
Mac Pro (2010): 3.33Ghz Intel Xeon (6 core) - 24 GB RAM - NVidia Quadro k5000
Macbook Air (2010): 2.13 Ghz Intel Core 2 Duo - 4GB RAM
chrono1081 is offline   3 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 09:00 AM   #16
DUCKofD3ATH
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Are you pretending to be a stereotypical American Liberal or is that your honest opinion? "Fox News", the boogeyman of the Left. Boo!

As for science journals, you don't pay attention to their claims, do you?
DUCKofD3ATH is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 09:12 AM   #17
Happybunny
macrumors 65816
 
Happybunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: 's-Hertogenbosch Netherlands
I think that most people on this planet think like this.

My pollution/waste does no harm to the environment.

It's everybody else, it's their pollution/waste which does all the major harm to the environment.
__________________
'You cannot undo history, but you can learn from it'
Happybunny is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 09:13 AM   #18
Huntn
macrumors 604
 
Huntn's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: The Misty Mountains
I could not find the direct USA Today link but Reports say there is a 95% chance humans caused global warming. For the conservatives in the forum, this is just another liberal lie, in this case a world wide conspiracy to make you spend money trying to fix this illusionary problem.

Quote:
USA TODAY - The world's top group of climate scientists is preparing to report that man-made global warming is "extremely likely," putting the odds that humanity is the main reason for the warming at 95%.

The findings are from a draft of the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report obtained by USA TODAY.

The IPCC is a United Nations group that is the planet's pre-eminent climate organization, which issues reports every few years about the effects of global warming. The next official report is due out in September. This draft copy of the report is not the final version.
__________________
The modern business ethos: "I'm worth it, you're not, and I'm a glutton!"
MBP, 2.2 GHz intel i7, Radeon HD 6750M, Bootcamp: W7.
PC: i5 4670k, 8GB RAM, Asus GTX670 (2GB VRAM), W7.
Huntn is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 09:18 AM   #19
citizenzen
Thread Starter
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUCKofD3ATH View Post
Because we are experiencing the results right now. What we've seen so far contradicts what scientists predicted.
What has Climate Change science predicted would happen in the early 21st century that hasn't come true?
citizenzen is online now   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 09:44 AM   #20
HarryPot
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by AhmedFaisal View Post
It's a perfectly valid excuse for a human being with low ethical standards.
But what to do when this measures start making businesses to cut workforce?

-----------

I'm of the thinking that wether climate change is man made or not, we have to start doing something. But this something has to be a economically and socially viable solution. And frankly, what the UN proposes sometimes seems a little too much, a little too dramatic.

Because if something is clear, is that scientist have a very hard time predicting the future reactions of the Earth climate. We might know that we are changing something, but how far can this change go is a very difficult analysis.
HarryPot is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 10:00 AM   #21
HarryPot
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
What has Climate Change science predicted would happen in the early 21st century that hasn't come true?
I'm sure if one digs, some faulty science paper will come out. Which really is to be expected, since predicting how the Earth will respond to climate change is not that easy.

Found this:

Quote:
In 2005, the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) published a color-coded map under the headline "Fifty million climate refugees by 2010." The primary source for the prediction was a 2005 paper by environmental scientist Norman Myers.

Six years later, this flood of refugees is nowhere to be found, global average temperatures are about where they were when the prediction was made—and the U.N. has done a vanishing act of its own, wiping the inconvenient map from its servers.
LINK: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...237832478.html
HarryPot is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 10:08 AM   #22
citizenzen
Thread Starter
macrumors 65816
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryPot View Post
I'm sure if one digs, some faulty science paper will come out. Which really is to be expected, since predicting how the Earth will respond to climate change is not that easy.
Hey! You found one!

I was so worried that Climate Change might be true.

Imagine my relief to find out it is all a huge misunderstanding.

citizenzen is online now   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 10:12 AM   #23
HarryPot
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenzen View Post
Hey! You found one!

I was so worried that Climate Change might be true.

Imagine my relief to find out it is all a huge misunderstanding.

Always a pleasure discussing with people like you.

I love it when someone asks a question and then make fun of you when you answer that exact question.
HarryPot is offline   4 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 10:18 AM   #24
TheAppleFairy
macrumors 6502a
 
TheAppleFairy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: 岩手県
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryPot View Post
Always a pleasure discussing with people like you.

I love it when someone asks a question and then make fun of you when you answer that exact question.
A Pleasure? lol

Climate change has been happening long before man any impact on our planet.

I am all for trying to keep the earth clean, but I am more for prosperity of the human race, and future generations.

I want clean air and water just like the next guy, so I try not to leave too big of a carbon footprint, but it's not because I think it's going to cause the oceans to rise and super storms to happen.
TheAppleFairy is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Aug 22, 2013, 10:28 AM   #25
jnpy!$4g3cwk
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryPot View Post
I don't have access to the WSJ article, but, a quick search in Google Scholar didn't come up with a close match. Could you post some more specific information the 2005 paper?
jnpy!$4g3cwk is offline   0 Reply With Quote


Reply
MacRumors Forums > Mac Community > Community Discussion > Politics, Religion, Social Issues

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Similar Threads
thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Why are we still debating climate change? Wild-Bill Politics, Religion, Social Issues 259 Mar 25, 2014 02:40 PM
Global Warming? (NOT CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED) GermanyChris Politics, Religion, Social Issues 135 Jun 10, 2013 09:57 AM
Climate change is here to stay. aaronvan Politics, Religion, Social Issues 26 Nov 9, 2012 08:23 AM
Climate change Rampant.A.I. Politics, Religion, Social Issues 30 Sep 12, 2012 12:45 PM

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:16 PM.

Mac Rumors | Mac | iPhone | iPhone Game Reviews | iPhone Apps

Mobile Version | Fixed | Fluid | Fluid HD
Copyright 2002-2013, MacRumors.com, LLC