Kuo has generally been quite accurate with his predictions over the past several years, including accurately outlining many of the details of Apple's 2013 launch plans as far back as January. Other accurate predictions have included the introduction of a "third MacBook line" that arrived in the form of Retina MacBook Pro models and the discontinuation of the 17-inch MacBook Pro last year.
In the past, White has provided somewhat questionable reports, claiming that an Apple television set with an "iRing" motion control remote would be coming this year and that the iPhone 5s would come in multiple sizes. Although he did also predict there would be multiple color choices for the next iPhone.
In a recent thread about 2014 iPad speculation, Arn noted that Kuo has been a reliable analyst in the past. Is there a way on MR to be able to gauge the past performance -- good or bad -- of specific analysts/predictors?
You could always create a thread and track the success and misses of each analyst against the rumours displayed on the front page. It may help other members in the future.
In a recent thread about 2014 iPad speculation, Arn noted that Kuo has been a reliable analyst in the past. Is there a way on MR to be able to gauge the past performance -- good or bad -- of specific analysts/predictors?
Analyst credibility. Reliable analyst. You funny.
None. They're about as informed as anybody else in the world.
I'm not sure either of you read Arn's comments in this or the referenced thread. You personally are welcome to ignore any reports form analysts. OTOH, repeating the stereotypical attitudes towards analysts here is not particularly useful. Arn highly characterizes analyst Kuo as reliable; do you also discount his opinion?
The world is a bit more complex than you portray it. Some analysts are good and some are not. All things equal, I'd prefer to learn from people who have studied the past predictions of these individuals.
I'm not sure either of you read Arn's comments in this or the referenced thread. You personally are welcome to ignore any reports form analysts. OTOH, repeating the stereotypical attitudes towards analysts here is not particularly useful. Arn highly characterizes analyst Kuo as reliable; do you also discount his opinion?
Am I not allowed to discount Arn's opinion? An opinion is not a fact.
Arn also published stuff from Digitimes, arguably the least reliable source out there.
None. They're about as informed as anybody else in the world.
I'm an analyst. Companies routinely provide analysts with information that's unavailable to the press, such as product roadmaps.
And what is stopping a company from telling you analysts false information to say... double down on secrecy? How do you personally know that what a company is telling you is the truth other than their word?
Everything a company says has to go through a reality check. For example, if one operator or vendor says it will launch [insert technology] next quarter, but all of its competitors are still struggling with it in the lab, it's likely that that company is blowing smoke. Another example is when one company claims that LTE chipsets will drop to sub-$20 by early 2014 when the average currently is closer to $100.
Experience with a company and the industry, and comparing notes with colleagues and even rivals (e.g., at an analyst conference), are some of the common ways to perform a reality check.
So basically, other than common sense (or as you put it "reality check"), nothing? You have to estimate whether they're telling you the truth or not?
No, it's a bit of common sense but more about years of experience covering individual companies and the industry as a whole.
Sometimes these reality checks are visible, such as at an analyst conference. When an executive is speaking and makes an outrageous claim, it's common to see a lot of the analysts look at one another and roll their eyes or smile.
Okay then. Because I'm still not understanding what you analysts actually do, I'll come up with a scenario. So lets say Apple tells you they are making a smart watch and then tells another analyst they they're not and they're instead focusing on a bigger screened iPhone. Which would you believe and how would you come to the conclusion, because the way I see it, everybody has an opinion on which is more likely.
What makes your 'reality checks' (educated guesses) better than anybody else's?
I'm still not convinced that analysts actually do anything other spout off their ad-hoc often misinformed reckons based on very little. The way I see it, it would be very easy for a company to lead you all astray.