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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:37 AM   #1
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Analysts Predict Q2 2014 Decline in iPad Sales, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales




Sales of Apple's iPad and iPhone remained strong during the holiday season with record quarterly sales reported in Q1 2014. Analyst predictions for Apple's second quarter of its fiscal year suggest iPhone sales may rise slightly, while iPad sales may decline slightly, reports Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog.

The consensus estimate from 21 Wall Street professionals and 13 amateur analysts predict iPad sales of 19.3 million, a 0.7 percent decline in Q2 2014. This is a significant change from Q2 2013, which saw a 55 percent year-over-year increase.
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The consensus estimate, at 19.3 million, would represent a 0.7% decline, with the pros slightly more optimistic (at 19.4 million) than the amateurs (19.2 million). Dragging down the amateur numbers is the 15 million estimate submitted by the Braeburn Group's Matt Lew. Tugging in the other direction is Horace Dediu's 21.8 million. One represents a year-over-year decline of 23%, the other an increase of 12%.
This dip in sales may only be temporary as Apple is expected to launch updated models of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina Display later this year, and may launch a larger-screen iPad Pro sometime in future after production issues are solved.

Apple will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter (first calendar quarter) of 2014 on Wednesday, April 23. The earnings release is posted just after 4:30 PM ET following the close of regular stock trading, and the conference call is scheduled to follow at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific.

Article Link: Analysts Predict Q2 2014 Decline in iPad Sales, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:38 AM   #2
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Doom.

Cue taps. It's over.

or...


get ready to buy AAPL at a bargain.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:40 AM   #3
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I can only see a rise in iPhone sales if they release a new iPhone in Q2, otherwise that doesn't make sense.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:43 AM   #4
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More accurate headline: "Analysts predict Apple sales based on numbers extracted from rectal cavities"

It's possible that some of these guesses are correct, but based on past precedent, if they are, it's not much better than dumb luck. They're going to make up some plausible numbers, then irrational people will buy or sell AAPL based on them, then after the actual announcement an overlapping group of irrational people will buy or sell AAPL based on how Apple either beat or failed to meet the predictions. And whether said people buy or sell will not necessarily be in direct relation to predicted or actual performance--exceeding expectations has no guarantee of not generating a selloff. for example.

At least it's better than the firms that make wild guesses about what the market will look like in five years, then release confident-sounding reports with precise numbers based on them.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:43 AM   #5
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You can only MILK your product line for so long before your sales chart begins to look like a sine wave. Hey Tim, where's the new an exciting stuff you promised? While your at it where's the updated Mac mini?
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:45 AM   #6
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"Analysts Predict"

All I read was "Analysts Predict...", and I tuned out.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:47 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by maflynn View Post
I can only see a rise in iPhone sales if they release a new iPhone in Q2, otherwise that doesn't make sense.
right? I don't see where they get this "rise in iPhone sales".

I don't think we'll see a new iPhone before iOS 8 comes out soo I'm gonna assume we wont see the new iPhone until 6-8 iOS 8betas later.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:54 AM   #8
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Fantastic

Everything is fantastic. The fact that there are no base for these numbers, the fact that if they are right they are still useless analysts, the fact that if they are wrong they are still useless, the fact that guys that weren't smart enough for medic school or engineering feel like they can dictate what's reasonable or not, the fact that even if apple just meets the worst expectations they will still make more money than google and samsung combined, the fact that even if apple only makes one dollar they still have the best products, the fact that almost all of those analysts will die before apple dies.

I would love for Apple to sell 10x less devices and go private.

----------

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Originally Posted by newyorksole View Post
right? I don't see where they get this "rise in iPhone sales".

I don't think we'll see a new iPhone before iOS 8 comes out soo I'm gonna assume we wont see the new iPhone until 6-8 iOS 8betas later.
Why wouldn't it rise YoY?

----------

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Originally Posted by Rodster View Post
You can only MILK your product line for so long before your sales chart begins to look like a sine wave. Hey Tim, where's the new an exciting stuff you promised? While your at it where's the updated Mac mini?
Lol, look at this guy.

Who is ming new stuff? Samsung? Where? How? Google and chromebooks? Microsoft and Xbox?

Why is Apple forced to make new stuff even everybody is closing doors and they make 13 billion dollars per quarter?

What if Apple only makes more money than Sony/Google/Dell/HP/Moto/LG/Asus combined instead of Sony/Google/Dell/HP/Moto/LG/Asus/Microsoft combined?

What if S5 outsell the 5s? What's wrong in not being the most lucrative public company in the world for few years, like everybody else? What if they only make 1 billion dollars instead of 13?

Why can't Apple stay 4 years without new product categories, like they did between 98 and 01, 01 and 07, 07 to 10? Thanks. Forgive my ignorance.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:54 AM   #9
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That would be a surprise

Looking at business adoption rates, a YOY decline would surprise me. I actually see people in meetings using them effectively now. A year ago it was mostly just for web access.

There is more diversity among brands you see in business settings, but Apple is still the aspiration all brand 90% of the time.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 07:57 AM   #10
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iOS 7 on iPad is a joke. Just a blown up version of the iPhone OS. Something they used to make fun of on Android. Apple's attention to detail is slowly fading.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:01 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by mdridwan47 View Post
iOS 7 on iPad is a joke. Just a blown up version of the iPhone OS. Something they used to make fun of on Android. Apple's attention to detail is slowly fading.
iOS brilliance (and problem) is about being a great platform, and not being noticed, like iCloud. Because of iOS, the iPad is the best tablet platform for apps and services.

If you don't get it, iOS isn't for you, and that's fine. However saying that attention to detail is fading when iOS never was as great and refined (and the whole tablet experience) as it is today, is showing that you have no idea of what you are talking about.

But again, you can't understand and enjoy what Ive has been doing and you miss Scott. LOL
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:10 AM   #12
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Don't understand the defensive nature from the comments in this post.

Think about it. It's been a few years. There's a pretty hefty saturation of tablets in the market now. The iPad isn't *that* gamechanging anymore--hell, I love iOS as much as the next guy but it is seriously under-optimized for tablet screens.

No reason to think that iPad sales haven't peaked. You don't need a degree to deduce that, just common sense and a general understanding of the tablet market.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:11 AM   #13
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iPad Air kind of Terrible

I wish I didn't upgrade my iPad 2 to the iPad Air. I paid $1k for this thing and it certainly wasn't worth it. It's buggy as heck, the LTE rarely works, the Camera wasn't as big of an improvement as I'd hoped it would be and it's buggy as heck - crashes at least once a day. I justified the price in my head because I sold my old iPad 2 for $250 and Best Buy had a great $130 christmas promotion but still $1k....
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:14 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Rodster View Post
You can only MILK your product line for so long before your sales chart begins to look like a sine wave. Hey Tim, where's the new an exciting stuff you promised? While your at it where's the updated Mac mini?
I wasn't aware the year was over already.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:16 AM   #15
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analysts predict
In the trash bin it goes.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:18 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by malexandria View Post
I wish I didn't upgrade my iPad 2 to the iPad Air. I paid $1k for this thing and it certainly wasn't worth it. It's buggy as heck, the LTE rarely works, the Camera wasn't as big of an improvement as I'd hoped it would be and it's buggy as heck - crashes at least once a day. I justified the price in my head because I sold my old iPad 2 for $250 and Best Buy had a great $130 christmas promotion but still $1k....
Did you get the 128GB model?

iOS 7 crashed a lot at the beginning but since 7.1 it's been pretty solid on my Retina iPad mini. LTE works fine on mine. It depends on the carrier. The baseband is pretty good.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:19 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromcm.pm View Post
iOS brilliance (and problem) is about being a great platform, and not being noticed, like iCloud. Because of iOS, the iPad is the best tablet platform for apps and services.

If you don't get it, iOS isn't for you, and that's fine. However saying that attention to detail is fading when iOS never was as great and refined (and the whole tablet experience) as it is today, is showing that you have no idea of what you are talking about.

But again, you can't understand and enjoy what Ive has been doing and you miss Scott. LOL
Bullcrap. The apologists that defend what is clearly a lack of focus need to understand that the "iOS way" and the "Android way" (for example) is not black and white.

iOS can still be a great platform and also utilize the space on tablets better. It's not up to me what that design would look like either--it's up to Apple. No one is clamoring for the iPad variant to look identical to Android. We want something that is still "simple" but also effective--right now, we don't have that. We have a blown-up iPhone OS with the occasional split pane to wow us as to how great they utilize their space.

No.

A great company will rethink the UI and introduce something that is effective and intuitive. I work at a software company and we attempt to do that very thing. Iteration after iteration of progress, trying to get closer and closer to cracking that balance between a useful and intuitive UI. Spacing out tiny icons over a larger space is flat-out lazy this day in age.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:23 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Jack Delgado View Post
Don't understand the defensive nature from the comments in this post.

Think about it. It's been a few years. There's a pretty hefty saturation of tablets in the market now. The iPad isn't *that* gamechanging anymore--hell, I love iOS as much as the next guy but it is seriously under-optimized for tablet screens.

No reason to think that iPad sales haven't peaked. You don't need a degree to deduce that, just common sense and a general understanding of the tablet market.
Not that anyone else has come up with anything that different. If Amazon produces a 3D-like screen as is the rumor, that could be a game changer, but nothing that Google, Samsung, or Amazon has produced to date is anything special.

My guess is that they re-released the iPad 4 because they wanted to have a full-sized device at the $399 price point as the iPad 2 had finally run its course. In 2012 the mini generated most of the sales growth, while the Air in 2013 seemed to shift it back to the larger size.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:23 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by pianophile View Post
All I read was "Analysts Predict...", and I tuned out.
It's uncanny how this is constantly posted in analyst threads - specifically ones that predict not-so-rosy pictures.

If you tuned out, why are you posting? Why did you even bother hitting the "reply" button? How do you even know what the analyst said if you tuned out?
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:24 AM   #20
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Analysts and meteorologists...the only people that get paid to be wrong on a daily basis.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:25 AM   #21
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Love the apocalyptic headline even though it's rather normal at this point in the iPads product cycle.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:25 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromcm.pm View Post
Why is Apple forced to make new stuff even everybody is closing doors and they make 13 billion dollars per quarter?

What if Apple only makes more money than Sony/Google/Dell/HP/Moto/LG/Asus combined instead of Sony/Google/Dell/HP/Moto/LG/Asus/Microsoft combined?

What if S5 outsell the 5s? What's wrong in not being the most lucrative public company in the world for few years, like everybody else? What if they only make 1 billion dollars instead of 13?

Why can't Apple stay 4 years without new product categories, like they did between 98 and 01, 01 and 07, 07 to 10? Thanks. Forgive my ignorance.
Because the expectations (analysts are paid WELL to address) are YOY growth. Apple could choose to try and sell less products every year and still sell a LOT and make a LOT of profit. But shareholders want growth. What made years without product categories still yield growth was launching in other markets sooner than historical norms.

Turn back the clock and the big launch used to be America followed by a few other countries, followed by a few more. They might get 6+ months in before they roll out to still other countries. Now they can't get enough volume out of that strategy so they roll out to more countries faster. Why? They need to do so to try to beat the previous quarter's numbers.

So why not just keep accelerating that? That's finite. Look at Coca Cola. They're having a hard time with growth because they are basically everywhere. They don't have any more virgin markets of size. Instead, they are playing games of trying to make new products go in established markets and/or trying to squeeze more profits out of (shrinking) packaging tricks. Is Coca-Cola a growth stock? No.

Apple is marching toward that destination- where the big reveal will come with "available everywhere today" and that will mean everywhere (globally). Why? Because they need to be selling everywhere to try to support shareholder expectations of ever-increasing growth. Some of "us" take reports like this personally- like the analysts are attacking Apple- but all they're trying to do is forecast sales and sales don't automatically go up every year just because "we" adore Apple (buyers generate the revenues that drive sales). Buyers are finite.

This is why they need new categories. Like Coca Cola, the existing mix of products is marching toward everybody having one that wants one. At the same time, the tech within is getting advanced enough to reduce the drive for everybody to feel the need to upgrade as often as they have in the past. What Apple needs is something else to sell to the market- that is not the same product mix and that is not a close variation of the same product mix. I describe the growth drivers like this:

2001: iPod
2007: iPhone (6 year gap)
2010: iPad (3 year gap)
2012-3: needed something else (2-3 year gap)
2014: needed something else (1-2 year gap)

In other words, if Apple's sustained (amazing) growth is tied to big innovations, the pace of big innovations must accelerate. Apple needed something completely new about 2 years ago, and something completely new again about now. Instead, we've mostly seen variations of the same "big 3" which I wouldn't describe as completely new (just incremental). One might say the Mac Pro is closest to "completely new" but it's priced such that only a tiny slice of a market for a desktop will opt to pay up for that so it can't generate enough revenue to drive a next leg up in growth (much like a line of diamond-encrusted, platinum iPhones- if launched- can't command enough volume to do the same). So they need mainstream-accessible, completely new. We haven't seen that since iPad.

Apple needs new, big innovations to start rolling out, faster and faster. Or, they, we, analysts, etc need to accept that Apple is shifting from a growth company to an income company like Coca Cola and quit carrying expectations for amazing YOY growth. Griping and calling analysts stupid doesn't change revenue numbers. Only buyers change revenue numbers. If Apple's YOY growth is hugely important to us individual consumers and "we" own the latest of everything Apple puts out, we've more than done our part. Apple just needs a lot more of us to show up. Or Apple needs to deliver something else(s) that makes "us" want to buy that something else(s) too.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:26 AM   #23
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Because the ipads wont be updated until fall, thanks for the prediction captain obvious.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:27 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Jack Delgado View Post
iOS can still be a great platform and also utilize the space on tablets better. It's not up to me what that design would look like either--it's up to Apple. No one is clamoring for the iPad variant to look identical to Android. We want something that is still "simple" but also effective--right now, we don't have that. We have a blown-up iPhone OS with the occasional split pane to wow us as to how great they utilize their space.

No.

A great company will rethink the UI and introduce something that is effective and intuitive. I work at a software company and we attempt to do that very thing. Iteration after iteration of progress, trying to get closer and closer to cracking that balance between a useful and intuitive UI. Spacing out tiny icons over a larger space is flat-out lazy this day in age.
My guess is that they aren't ready to make the compromises necessary for true multitasking. Once they do we'll see better use of split screens, etc. Maybe it is coming with iOS 8, but more likely with iOS 9 if the A8 has 1GB RAM as is rumored. Power consumption seems to be the limiting factor here.
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Old Apr 18, 2014, 08:27 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Chupa Chupa View Post
Love the apocalyptic headline even though it's rather normal at this point in the iPads product cycle.
Did Macrumors changed the headline? Because I don't see any apocalyptic one
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