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Old May 22, 2014, 12:09 PM   #1
Cox Orange
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The EU-election thread 2014. Anyone interested?

I thought I'd start such a thread, for perhaps there are poeple that like to exchange opinions on it.
I will make some insertions for non-EU-Macurmors-Users, for clarification.

GB and the Netherlands are voting today, already. The last countries vote on the 25th.

It is the first time we have actual candidates running for president of the EU comission (i.e. the cabinet for starters). The most likely to win are of course those of the two biggest parties. Martin Schulz (Germany) for the social democrat parties' faction and Jean Claude Junker (Luxemburg) for the conservative Parties' faction. (The "Greens", the "Left" and the "Liberals" have candidates, too. Europeans use the word "liberal" for those who's important goal is deregulation of economy aside private freedom (no surveillance) for the normal people.)

What I see from France and Germany the TTIP (supposed Trade-Agreement between US and EU) seems to be a hot topic and some even make their vote dependent on that topic.
While Schulz and Junker both said, they won't accept the TTIP with social, ecological and health standards that are under the european standards (EU residents fear that the standards will be adjusted down to the US standards), most people don't think they will keep their word.
Junker is a bit more left from the typical conservative parties he is the candidate for, but I guess most people know, that the national governmental heads will have an influence on that.

Then there is teh topic of the right wing parties. Germany had a 3% threshhold for the EU elections, so that too many small parties can't mess up the parliament. The highest court in Germany has decided that this is not ok and so in Germany they fear that the Nazis (NPD) will get into it with 1%.

Asides from that there are already parties that are openly rigth extremist or some sort of right extremist. UKIP (GB), Geert Wilders' Party (Netherlands) and France's right party are estimated to get 20-30%.
And there is the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany, that is anti-Euro and against massimigration (they play with that word, of course and their statements are never really clear). Which did form in the last year and did get 4,6% right away (they didn't get over the 5% threshhold for national elections). But they might get even 7% this time.

I can't really add much to this discussion, but I hope you feel some will and interest to state your opinion or speak about other subjects.
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Old May 22, 2014, 12:20 PM   #2
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Well I voted.
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Old May 23, 2014, 01:20 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cox Orange View Post
I thought I'd start such a thread, for perhaps there are poeple that like to exchange opinions on it.
I will make some insertions for non-EU-Macurmors-Users, for clarification.

GB and the Netherlands are voting today, already. The last countries vote on the 25th.

It is the first time we have actual candidates running for president of the EU comission (i.e. the cabinet for starters). The most likely to win are of course those of the two biggest parties. Martin Schulz (Germany) for the social democrat parties' faction and Jean Claude Junker (Luxemburg) for the conservative Parties' faction. (The "Greens", the "Left" and the "Liberals" have candidates, too. Europeans use the word "liberal" for those who's important goal is deregulation of economy aside private freedom (no surveillance) for the normal people.)

What I see from France and Germany the TTIP (supposed Trade-Agreement between US and EU) seems to be a hot topic and some even make their vote dependent on that topic.
While Schulz and Junker both said, they won't accept the TTIP with social, ecological and health standards that are under the european standards (EU residents fear that the standards will be adjusted down to the US standards), most people don't think they will keep their word.
Junker is a bit more left from the typical conservative parties he is the candidate for, but I guess most people know, that the national governmental heads will have an influence on that.

Then there is teh topic of the right wing parties. Germany had a 3% threshhold for the EU elections, so that too many small parties can't mess up the parliament. The highest court in Germany has decided that this is not ok and so in Germany they fear that the Nazis (NPD) will get into it with 1%.

Asides from that there are already parties that are openly rigth extremist or some sort of right extremist. UKIP (GB), Geert Wilders' Party (Netherlands) and France's right party are estimated to get 20-30%.
And there is the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany, that is anti-Euro and against massimigration (they play with that word, of course and their statements are never really clear). Which did form in the last year and did get 4,6% right away (they didn't get over the 5% threshhold for national elections). But they might get even 7% this time.

I can't really add much to this discussion, but I hope you feel some will and interest to state your opinion or speak about other subjects.
I voted.

If the exit polls are to be believed Gert Wilders PVV slipped up in the EU elections.
The two main pro Europe parties won and the third pro Europe party held firm.
We of course will not have the final results until Sunday. The press is closing in on Gert, after months of always trying to grab the headlines, last night Gert was unavailable for comment.
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Old May 23, 2014, 06:19 AM   #4
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I can't vote in this election, because I am a resident of the UK and not a citizen. UKIP, the anti-EU anti-immigration party, made rather large gains in this election. So far as a I can tell most people who like UKIP are reactionary xenophobes. It shocks me that so many people voted for them. This will no doubt drive up the percent of people in Scotland who vote for independence, because the choice will be between being in the UK versus being in the EU. I think the rise of UKIP is very bad not just for the UK, but for all of Europe.
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Old May 23, 2014, 07:06 AM   #5
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i'll have to wait till sunday for the voting here in austria.

Sadly i think the right wing will collect quite a lot of angry votes simply for the fact that aren't currently in the austrian government (which is currently doing quite the bad job)

personally i would like a swing away from the european conservative parties so that the european commision is set up more liberal/socialdemocratic for once.

And i'm hardly a fan of the social democrats but the conservatives essentially give the big corperations a free ride, don't have a clue about transparency (TTIP) or private data rights
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Old May 24, 2014, 05:25 PM   #6
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I voted already via mail here in Germany.
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Originally Posted by VulchR View Post
I can't vote in this election, because I am a resident of the UK and not a citizen. UKIP, the anti-EU anti-immigration party, made rather large gains in this election. So far as a I can tell most people who like UKIP are reactionary xenophobes. It shocks me that so many people voted for them. This will no doubt drive up the percent of people in Scotland who vote for independence, because the choice will be between being in the UK versus being in the EU. I think the rise of UKIP is very bad not just for the UK, but for all of Europe.
Didn't think of that side effect.

There is one thought that came to my mind with the after poll projections for Gert Wilders Party. I wonder, if the media did talk so much about these right wing parties, to encourage democratic voters to go vote - or the people asked for the projection were not honest. As media exaggerates often enough, it could as well be, that the right parties will not get as much votes as predicted (I mean that 20-30% range).

Well, sunday will be interesting.

takao, I saw a diverting (if that is the right word for "kurzweilig") documentary by an austrian commedian on 3sat. It was called "Wahlfahrt", maybe it is in their mediathek. Viviane Reding showed humor.
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Old May 25, 2014, 02:46 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cox Orange View Post
takao, I saw a diverting (if that is the right word for "kurzweilig") documentary by an austrian commedian on 3sat. It was called "Wahlfahrt", maybe it is in their mediathek. Viviane Reding showed humor.
it's a whole format from austrian ORF: there should also be episodes with other candidates. They started it last year for the austrian election where all candidates participated, and it was a huge hit.

for the european election:
for the first 50 min episode, the passenger were Martin Schulz and Ska Keller
in the Second it were danish candidate Morten Messerschmidt and slowakian liberal Renata Alt.

perhaps the austrian tv-thek works but it could also be region looked ...
http://tvthek.orf.at/program/Wahlfah...Europa/7874478

.. but they are also on youtube in full length
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMecBKK5HRQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDE7yqHJmo4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Vpc4wu4AA
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Old May 25, 2014, 03:33 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cox Orange View Post
There is one thought that came to my mind with the after poll projections for Gert Wilders Party. I wonder, if the media did talk so much about these right wing parties, to encourage democratic voters to go vote - or the people asked for the projection were not honest. As media exaggerates often enough, it could as well be, that the right parties will not get as much votes as predicted (I mean that 20-30% range).

Well, sunday will be interesting.

.

If the prognoses are right about Gert Wilders, it was not his stance on Europe that made him lose votes. But just a few weeks ago he started a campaign, he used the Saudi flag and text over islam, this is causing a trade war, which could take in the whole Arab world.
Gert Wilders is seen as to much of a lose cannon, international politics takes finesse.
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Old May 25, 2014, 06:11 AM   #9
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I guess AfD will get 10% from German voters if they don't fake it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altern...Cr_Deutschland

People really wish a change. It doesn't matter which mainstream party you choose, all do the same...

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Old May 25, 2014, 10:14 AM   #10
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the first forecast from austria:
27,1% ÖVP (conservatives), 5 seats
23,8% SPÖ (social democrats), 5 seats
20,8% FPÖ (right wing), 4 seats
14,6% Greens, 3 seats
8,3% Neos (liberals) 2 seats
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Old May 25, 2014, 02:25 PM   #11
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I am stupid, I switched between ARD+ZDF and phoenix, till I had the great idea to switch to Euronews. They have all projections/forecasts for today there, of course.

Very interesting results.

Greek voted extremist left with over 20%. Social democrats 8% (I guess thanks to german candidate Martin Schulz), but also the conservatives are under 10%.

French vote <20% Le Penne (extreme right). Someone said, he will move to Canada now.
Le Penne has said, she wants to force new elections for the french national government.

I wonder that the Greens in Germany, France and Austria (I saw a documentary, of the very good meat standards in Austria, you have the best) didn't get a lot votes, seeing how TTIP seemed to be a big topic.
Well ok, 10-14% is a usual to good percentage for Greens in Germany and Austria, I think.

I am surprised that the liberals in the netherlands are the strongest party there. (Yes, one could joke with clichees, that it is the country of money, I know, but I thought it was more diverse and had also lots of left / progressive votes.)

For German-speaking people that can get the channel, there is a good talk on "Phoenix" (unter den Linden Talk Show) right now, with a british and french journalist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quotenfrau View Post
I guess AfD will get 10% from German voters if they don't fake it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altern...Cr_Deutschland

People really wish a change. It doesn't matter which mainstream party you choose, all do the same...

Well, I have to disagree. Neither do I think that all parties do the same, nor do I think that if it were so, the AfD was an alternative (not wanting to make a joke with the name).
Well, I know, I might sound like a politician, when I say you have to do compromises and they can't act black or white. Even, if you say due to the compromise parties don't keep their word, I say, the outcome is different though. Take the change in the energy planning in Germany. The SPD+Green made a compromise that fit all. The CDU+FDP changed for the big corporations. Now the CDU+SPD go back to coal mining (thanks to SPD). With the greens, even if a conservative would say, they go economically to far, when seen alone as a party, you get a reasonable compromise.

I was right about the 7% for the AfD, though

Quote:
it's a whole format from austrian ORF: there should also be episodes with other candidates. They started it last year for the austrian election where all candidates participated, and it was a huge hit.

for the european election:
for the first 50 min episode, the passenger were Martin Schulz and Ska Keller
in the Second it were danish candidate Morten Messerschmidt and slowakian liberal Renata Alt.
Ah, ok. I saw hald of the 2nd part and the whole 3rd part on 3sat. Thanks for the link, I will look into it later.
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Old May 25, 2014, 03:14 PM   #12
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It looks like the extreme parties are starting in waves to take over Europe, left and right, precisely because the current parties (left and right) are far too similar and complacent.

This is dangerous. If the moderate parties don't wake up and start offering what people actually want then national parliaments will be the next target for these extreme parties, and I'm certain that is something everybody will regret in the long term.

I agree with Martin Schulz on this issue. The EU has many flaws, but in many cases some of these are caused or exacerbated by member states. It isn't fair for all of the European success to be credited to national parliaments but the failure to be blamed on EU institutions.

If these far-right (and far-left in some countries like Greece) parties continue with their momentum then they will gain control of national parliaments sooner rather than later, and the only thing these people want to do is break up and shred to pieces the current level of European cooperation and integration.
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Old May 25, 2014, 03:29 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cox Orange View Post
I wonder that the Greens in Germany, France and Austria (I saw a documentary, of the very good meat standards in Austria, you have the best) didn't get a lot votes, seeing how TTIP seemed to be a big topic.
Well ok, 10-14% is a usual to good percentage for Greens in Germany and Austria, I think.
the 15% in Austria is the best they ever had in nationwide / european wide elections

just like many other countries the voter behaviors differ heavily between populations/regions.
in my hometown (47k population) the greens actually were the strongest party with more than 25%

in Austria the right wing party FPÖ was the only sizable party with an anti-EU election campaign and they historically always have been the aggregator of the "angry voters" who don't like the current government... every time they actually get into a government position they completely screw it up and implode in the next election ... 2 elections later few of their voters remember the screw-up anymore
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Old May 25, 2014, 04:52 PM   #14
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Interestingly in Germany the numbers are allmost the same as in the last EU and national election, only differing in the 5% range.
And the little percents the others lost roughly went to the euro-critic AfD (though they got their most points from the christ-democrats). The christ-democratic party has a special section that can be elected in Bavaria (CSU). They campaigned against immigrants and they lost 2,2%, which is a lot when you compare that to the number of citizens of Bavaria.

Good results from Spain, from a democratic / pro-EU standpoint. Also nice that Berlusconis party in Italy lost votes and got only 6%.

Still shocking for me that in France the "normal" big poeples parties have gone down to small party percentages (like Sarcozys UMP and Hollande's socialists, the latter with 14%).

In German TV they discussed, that if the extreme right party in France will govern nationally once, that maybe Poland will have to take the place of Germany's big partner.

I am thinking, if maybe that will result in Germany taking more care of what the other countries say, if they do not have an ally in France anymore. Also, the shrinked democratic parties in classically Euro-critic countries like the UK may have to go more pro EU, to guarantee, that the extremists in the EU parliament don't take the lead.

@ takao:
your FPÖ's role was usually taken by the FDP in Germany, though they were often polemic, they were not anti-democratic, but they could catch the unsatisfied and angry. Since the rise of the AfD, they are almost not existent anymore (will be intersting to see, how they will be in 4years, nationally) and what was only polemic with them, is the real programm of the AfD.

Also angry voters in Germany often voted "Spinner"-Parties, like "Tierschutz-Partei" (animal rights party) and small clientele parties and such. Most people may think, it doesn't harm, because it will not have any influence, because of the threshhold, but they have stated their "no".
I wonder, if the 1,5% Tierschutz-Partei votes are all fun-votes or if there are really that much supporters. It might just be, that peoplee didn't know, that there is no threshold this time.
The NPD (neo-nazis) has 0,8%, it is very likely, but not certain, that they will get 1 seat.

On whole europe: at the moment 90 seats for non specified others!

Oh, and another plus: Portugal has not voted anti-EU (same as Spain).

Also it seems that in the eastern states, less people went to vote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zin View Post
(...)
I agree with Martin Schulz on this issue. The EU has many flaws, but in many cases some of these are caused or exacerbated by member states. It isn't fair for all of the European success to be credited to national parliaments but the failure to be blamed on EU institutions.
Unfortunately most people don't see it that complex. It has been discussed, that the EU has to explain itself more, but I think even with the possibilities to inform oneself, people are still just lazy and will go on with blaming the EU.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zin View Post
If these far-right (and far-left in some countries like Greece) parties continue with their momentum then they will gain control of national parliaments sooner rather than later, and the only thing these people want to do is break up and shred to pieces the current level of European cooperation and integration.
This is one of the things to look at. Spain and Portugal gives hope, though.

Edit: Poland has 7% right extremists, that is 4 seats. A polish journalist said, they are comparable to the AfD and a bit more intelligent than the "bald headed" (citation).
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Old May 25, 2014, 08:02 PM   #15
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"Eurosceptic earthquake rocks EU"

The BBC's take on it seems to be that the results are turning out to be a huge increase in "Eurosceptic" party votes, and, that this is largely a result of high unemployment.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27051071

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27462683
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Old May 25, 2014, 09:16 PM   #16
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a fairly remarkable fact as reported by The Guardian;

Quote:
Ukip wins European elections with ease to set off political earthquake

For the first time in modern history, neither Labour nor Conservatives have won a British national election...
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Old May 25, 2014, 09:56 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Happybunny View Post
I voted.

If the exit polls are to be believed Gert Wilders PVV slipped up in the EU elections.
...
it looks like he did better than the exit polls suggested? from the BBC;


Quote:
Dutch anti-immigration populist Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) looks set to hold on to four of the Netherland's 26 seats in the European parliament. That places him in joint second place behind the pro-EU Christian Democrats. The Freedom Party has raised the idea of joining a group with the French National Front in the European Parliament.
Will UKIP join with the Freedom Party and France's National Front? Or is that unlikely?

Last edited by Macky-Mac; May 25, 2014 at 10:07 PM. Reason: oh! it was the BBC not the Guardian.....opps!
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Old May 26, 2014, 01:58 AM   #18
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Ugh... UKIP topped the EU vote here. So many people fell for their nonsense. Just like with the local elections there is a clear London - rest of the UK divide. London hasn't fallen for the UKIP stupidity but the peasantry sure have.
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Old May 26, 2014, 02:12 AM   #19
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it looks like he did better than the exit polls suggested? from the BBC;




Will UKIP join with the Freedom Party and France's National Front? Or is that unlikely?
The BBC didn't get the whole story.


Yes the exit polls were wrong, but again Gert Wilders didn’t win. He just didn’t really lose, he just stood still. In 2009 he had 4 seats and in 2014 he has 4 seats.
But of course to the general public here he lost BIG, he was every day in the news about how HE was going to win and win BIG.
He was always using every opportunity to push his case for the Netherlands leaving the EURO.

This from a Dutch newspaper translated.

Has Wilders lost his mojo? What the Dutch results of the European elections mean?

These European elections were supposed to prove three things. That the Netherlands is fed up with the European Union and ‘Brussels’ meddling with their national affairs. That the Dutch are through with the Euro and want their guilder back. And that the nation is rising against the influx of asylum seekers and Eastern European immigrants, across their open borders. All these assumptions were made by Dutch populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party (PVV).
But instead of triggering the ‘political revolution’ Wilders had predicted to break out all over Europe, the first exit poll of the European Parliament elections shows that the bleached blond nationalist lost almost 30 percent of the support he had five years ago. While he remains the most famous Dutch politician, the xenophobe who hopes to join forces with France’s Front National and far right parties in Italy, Austria, Sweden and Belgium in Europe, was humbled by the Dutch support for pro-European parties on Thursday.

Four questions about the European election results in the Netherlands.
1) European election results? Aren’t we supposed to learn about this on Sunday?
While most of the EU’s 28 member states go to the polls on Sunday, the (secular) Dutch never vote on that day. Along with the Brits, the Dutch elected their members for the European Parliament on Thursday. A European rule dictates that the results should be kept secret until the polls close in all EU countries, on Sunday evening. But the Dutch are too impatient to wait that long. National broadcaster NOS issued exit polls at 44 voting stations which usually represents the national results most adequately.
All Dutch politicians were careful in drawing definite conclusions from Thursday’s exit polls, but the polls clearly show a close call between the left-wing liberals (D66) and the conservative Christian democrats (CDA). Wilders, the tipped front runner, came fourth, behind the right-wing liberals (VVD). According to the exit polls, Wilders earned 12.2 percent of the votes, which adds up to three seats in the European Parliament. The Netherlands, with a population of 17 million, is entitled to a total of 26 seats of the total 751 seats in the European parliament.
2) So, has Wilders lost his mojo?
Not a day goes by that Geert Wilders doesn’t make headlines in the Netherlands. Since breaking away from the VVD party ten years ago, Wilders has developed a political program based on xenophobia, populism and controversy. He combines right-wing ideas on immigration with left leaning politics when it comes to maintaining the Dutch welfare state, upholding state funded pensions and health care.
He is most famous for targeting Islam. Just last week there were rumors of Saudi Arabia wanting to impose a trade boycott on the Netherlands after Wilders spread stickers resembling the Saudi flag that read “Islam is a lie, Mohammad is a criminal, the Koran is poison”.
But although his public persona is larger than life, Wilders’ political backing has been dwindling for quite some time. He reached the height of his power in 2010, when a government of right wing liberals and Christian democrats needed his support for a majority in Dutch parliament. But he blew up that coalition over budget negotiations after only eighteen months
Since then Wilders has lost significantly in both the national and local elections. And on top of diminishing electoral support, infighting within his own Freedom Party has caused several representatives (Wilders doesn’t allow members in his ‘movement’) to break away from him and/or leave the party while taking their seats with them.
After banking on anti-immigration and anti-elitist sentiments of the disgruntled lower classes in the Netherlands who feel squeezed between cheap immigrant labor and government budget cuts, Wilders hoped to reap the fruits of Euroscepticism. He ran a campaign that conjured up visions of the low countries as an independent nation that would shut its borders against negative influences from abroad while maintaining trade relations with the rest of the continent it so depends on for its wealth.


http://www.nrc.nl/verkiezingen/2014/...herlands-mean/

I ask you why would Front National or UKIP which both won big want to work with this loser Gert Wilders.
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Old May 26, 2014, 03:59 AM   #20
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on german TV (ZDF) yesterday the head of the AfD sure went great lengths to distance the party and himself from UKIP ("it's cannot be in germanys interest that the UK leaves the EU") _and_ FN
so i think the AfD getting pulled more into the center isn't unreasonable


the biggest loser of the day is Hollande and his politics, not only were his losses catastrophic domestically, but also for the S&D because of the amount of EU seat France has he ruined any chance of Schulz winning over Juncker
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Old May 26, 2014, 05:07 AM   #21
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Will UKIP join with the Freedom Party and France's National Front? Or is that unlikely?
It's impossible - that would be political suicide for them.

UKIP's premise has been 'let's try and table the topic of immigration without having it shut down by PC/leftist taunts of racism, or having it fall into the hands of violent nationalists'. France's NF is exactly the kind of group they would seek to avoid, otherwise they'd see their appeal melt away.

UKIP have been picking up votes as much from the left as from the right. The Guardian's 'right wing' label and vilification is facile and fails to offer any insight into this phenomena.

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Originally Posted by iStudentUK View Post
Ugh... UKIP topped the EU vote here. So many people fell for their nonsense. Just like with the local elections there is a clear London - rest of the UK divide. London hasn't fallen for the UKIP stupidity but the peasantry sure have.
Wow... how very arrogant of you!

Whether right or wrong in their politics, UKIP has actually given the British people an alternative to the 'political elite knows best' agenda of the three main parties. Suppressing discourse has handed this victory to them. Charges of stupidity should be levelled where they belong - to the established political class.

Last edited by firestarter; May 26, 2014 at 05:19 AM.
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Old May 26, 2014, 05:16 AM   #22
oblomow
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Originally Posted by firestarter View Post
It's impossible - that would be political suicide for them.

UKIP's premise has been 'let's try and table the topic of immigration without having it shut down by PC/leftist taunts of racism, or having it fall into the hands of violent nationalists'. France's NF is exactly the kind of group they would seek to avoid, otherwise they'd see their appeal melt away.

UKIP have been picking up votes as much from the left as from the right. The Guardian's 'right wing' label and vilification is facile and fails to offer any insight into this phenomena.

It will indeed be suicide if any of the UKIP voters reads mr. Le Pen's comments about immigration and ebola. What an idiot. ( although he claims to be misquoted )
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Old May 26, 2014, 08:54 AM   #23
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Whether right or wrong in their politics
Definitely wrong.
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Old May 26, 2014, 09:32 AM   #24
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I didn't vote. Its always a giant douche vs a turd sandwich. Or in this case an alcoholic scaremonger who is potentially racist (and friends) vs the rest of the posh self-entitled public school boys (and friends). And I don't even know what MEPs actually do or how the system works, so as usual I went ahead and avoided sight of the polling station.


I await the protests of my ignorance. Don't care.
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Old May 26, 2014, 10:38 AM   #25
firestarter
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I await the protests of my ignorance. Don't care.
I don't care about your ignorance either.
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